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Ironman8848

URA- D1 - DOUBLE BOTTOM IN PROGRESS !MEDIUM / LONG TERM BUYING OPPORTUNITY WITH A STRONG STORY BEHIND !!! BUY AT CURRENT LEVEL AND ADD ON DIPS. MEDIUM/LONG TERM TARGET : $ 37.05 - $ 55.68 - $ 70.73 DAILY (D1) : Yesterday's price action triggered a potential double bottom formation in progress coupled with a RSI bullish divergence. In addition, the daily closing price (@24.30) is above the Tenkan-Sen (@ 24.14) An upside breakout of $25.85 (double bottom trigger level) & 38.2% Fib retracement, would activate this ongoing formation (DB) in opening the door for a technical target of $ 29.27, which is also, by the way, roughly the top level of the daily clouds resistance area. WEEKLY (W1) : Recent price action from the top ($31.60) is an healthy consolidation move in a broad bull trend still in place. Indeed, the primary uptrend support line is still intact and is also coinciding with the weekly clouds support area. In addition, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 22.72 has been filled (with an intraweek low @ 22.43. A weekly closing above KS and Mid Bollinger Band, respectively @ 24.42 and 24.52 would add further support for further upside towards, firstly the TS, currently ƒ 27.02 ahead of 29.27 technical double bottom target above mentioned. Interesting to note that the 29.27 level coincides also with the middle of the long black candle which triggered this consolidation move. A weekly closing above 29.27 would be seen as a very positive signal, calling for a retest of former high @ 31.60 ahead of higher level MONTHLY (M1) : Uptrend intact, above the monthly clouds, above the Kijun-Sen and the Mid Bollinger band. Watch the Lagging line which after having broken the clouds is again inside the clouds. A new upside breakout of the clouds would also add further support for higher levels. As you can see on this monthly chart, there is plenty of space to the upside and my strategic technical target are the following : Target 1 : 31.60 Target 2 : 37.05 Target 3 : 55.68 Target 4 : 70.73 For your information, there is also another vehicle investment in this URANIUM theme and on my view it is the best one : Strategy Certificate sur U3O8 RENAISSANCE Portfolio Sous-jacent: U3O8 RENAISSANCE Portfolio Catégorie de produit ASPS/EUSIPA Tracker Certificates (1300) ISIN: CH0441692628 /Valor: 44169262 Last price (December 15th 2021) $ 1879.31 - $ 1898.29 Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
AMEX:URALong
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-D1/H4 TIME FRAMESDAILY (D1) : On that time frame, the BTCUSD is moving in a broad sideways channel (46'650 - 50'500); nevertheless, pressure remains on the downside as current level is still : 1) below the Mid Bollinger Band 2) below the primary downtrend line resistance 3) below the Kijun-Sen Watch Tenkan-Sen (@48'500), roughly in the middle of the sideways channel above mentioned; this level should be seen and considered as a good barometer, opening respectively the door for the top of the bottom of the ongoing sideways trading range. Watch also price action on the Lagging line which is still far below the clouds, TS and KS... RSI below 50 , @ 39.63 ! On the upside, as long as the BTCUSD is not able to recover sustainably above the 50'000-50'500, the pressure will remains to the downside ! On the downside a failure to hold above the bottom (@ 46'650) of this ongoing sideways channel would then reopen the door for lower levels, calling at least for a retest of the 42'000 area, former low reached on December 4th. 4 HOURS (H4) : As you can see the clouds did, so far, perfectly "the job", in rejecting several upside breakout with success !!! Levels to watch are similar with those previously mentioned on D1 analysis and corroborate perfectly the implication of a breakout on one way or the other. On the upside, watch the clouds resistance area which if broken, would be the first signal of an upside move continuation, while on the downside the first significant support in this area is currently between 48275-47'870, ahead of 46'650, which is also the bottom of the sideways channel mentioned on the daily picture Finally, as usual, watch shorter intraday time frames which will help you to detect early signal (s) in allowing you to act accordingly. Do not forget to manage efficiently and protect your long tactical exposure as we are still in a SELL ON RALLY, strategically speaking and not yet on a buy on dips... Have a great trading day and all the best. Take care. Last but not least, if you like my analysis, firstly like it and secondly if you do not follow me yet, please add me on your following list. Many thanks in advance. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
5
NQ1 100 MINI FUT-D-HEAD AND SHOULDERS!DAILY : The ongoing Head and Shoulders formation detected on Dec 9th (see related ideas) is taking shape: indeed, looking at the recent price action we can see the following : 1) before yesterday (Dec 13th), a breakout of both, Mid Bolllinger Band and Kijun-Sen 2) yesterday Dec 14th), confirmation by a daily closing below the Tenkan-Sen. Therefore, the former Tenkan-Sen support, currently @ 15'987 which was the former support should now be seen as the first significant resistance to look at ahead of the cluster ( KS and MBB 16'150-16'200) previously mentioned. A failure to recover above 16'200 on a daily closing basis, would add further selling pressure, calling for a downside move towards the daily clouds support area , currently between 15'725 and 15'400). Interesting to note that the 15'400 coincides roughly with the current level of the Head and Shoulders neckline !!! and breakout confirmation of this level would activate this H & S formation for a technical target of 14'348 which coincides with the former low of October 4th and also with the 23.6% Fib ret of the big rally, starting on March 23rd, 2020 @ 6628.75 towards the ATH @ 16'767,50 reached on Nov 22nd, 2021... [ RSI is below 50 (@ 47.71).
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H4 - STILL IN A CORRECTIVE MOVE...H4 : Recent and current price action is still in a corrective recovery move and currently still below the H4 clouds, attempting to upside breakout the secondary downtrend line resistance. In its recent move, the BTCUSD, as expected, already reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement (50'800 - 45'750) @ 48'275 which also, should be seen as the first pivot level for further development. Indeed, 48'375 is currently, roughly the level of the Mid Bollinger Band which also coincides with the current level of the secondary downtrend line resistance. Last H4 pattern triggered a "DOJI" pattern =uncertainty & indecision with its closing level @ 48'280 = Kijun-Sen !!! Ongoing and next H4 period (on a cloisng basis) should give more clues about the upcoming price action with the following implications : R3 : 50'800 (FH Dec 12th) R2 : 49'720-50'000 (78.6% Fib ret & clouds top) R1 : 48'870 (61.8% Fib ret) Currrent level : 48'171 S1 : 47'510 (Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line) S2. : 46'650 (ongoing support trend line) S3 : 45'750 (FH Dec 13th) A failure to stay and hold above 45'750 would put the focus on the former low around the 42'000 area. RSI just above the 50.00 @ 50.18 ! DAILY : Following the white candle triggered yesterday, the BTCUSD is still below the Tenkan-Sen and did not manage to close above the middle of the previous long black candle and therefore, missed to trigger a piercing line pattern ! For the time being, in the daily time frame, no change in my bearish view calling for lower level Only a sustainable move (DAILY CLOSING !) above both Kijun-Sen & Base line (51'029) and the ongoing daily downtrend resistance line, currently @ 51'800, would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario. HOURLY : Several clouds upside breakouts attempts without success for the time being; indeed, after having reached, a couple of hours ago, an intraday high of 48'773 (very close to the 61.8% Fib ret @ 48'870), the BTCUSD went down again and tested the clouds area again. In this H1 time frame, I would suggest to watch the clouds and the Tenkan-Sen as a support level area as a failure to stay above the clouds, would open the door for the ongoing H1 support trend line (around 47'500) which is also the cluster "MBB and KS". CONCLUSION . The BTCUSD is not out of the woods yet... Have a nice trading day. All the best. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4 - BELOW THE CLOUDS !H4 : The failure to hold above the KEY PIVOT LEVEL (support cluster) mentioned yesterday triggered a sharp downside breakout which pushed the BTCUSD towards a low so far of 45'750. The ongoing small recovery has started by a "doji" pattern but once again the upside potential is likely to be pretty limited and should still be seen as a corrective move in a broad bear trend which is still in place in several time frames ! Levels to watch in this H4 time frames are the following : R3 : 48'870 ** R2 : 48'275 *** R1 : 47'679 * CURRENT LEVEL : 46'599 S1 : 46'500 * S2 : 45'750 ** S3 : 42'000 *** DAILY PICTURE Yesterday's price action triggered a "BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN" (Long black candle) In order to neutralise the ongoing bearish move, the BTCUSD should recover at least above 48'900 (TS) and hold sustainably above it (on a daily closing basis !) WEEKLY PICTURE Watch the clouds support zone between 46'500 and 37'000 61.8% Fib ret (28'600 - 69'000 rally) is @ 44'032 and the 78.6% @ 37'245 INTRADAY (hourly) Still in an ongoing downtrend price action; below : 1) the hourly downtrend line resistance 2) the Kijun-Sen or base line 3) the Mid-Bollinger Band 4) the Tenkan-Sen or conversion line (@ 46'805) which should be seen as the pivot level on this H1 time frame ! CONCLUSION : Watch carefully price action in starting from the intraday short term time frames to the daily and weekly time frames. That will allow you to detect, firstly, early signal of potential tactically recovery in acting accordingly having in mind a countertrend strategy which would imply a strict risk management control (risk/reward ratio !) and secondly to detect later the "true" strategic trend reversal (ie bullish divergence on daily chart, etc) ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H4 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !H4 Once again the clouds worked perfectly well in rejecting an upside attempt breakout which has been directly followed by a short term trend reversal. As already mentioned, any recovery seen over the last couple of sessions should only be seen as a TACTICAL CORRECTIVE MOVE in a broad bear trend which took place from ATH (@ 69'000) and which has been confirmed by the clouds breakout on a daily basis. From the ATH, we are, STRATEGICALLY speaking, not any more on a buy on dips but clearly on a SELL on rally. (LOWER HIGHS !!!) ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS OF THE ONGOING DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE & MID BOLLINGER BAND (currently around 52'700-53'000) WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT ON MY EXPECTED STRATEGIC BEARISH SCENARIO CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS. In this H4 time frame, the 48'850-48'750 area should be seen as a KEY PIVOT SUPPORT LEVEL for further development ; indeed, this support zone coincides with both the Kijun-Sen or Base Line and the Mid Bollinger Band; MBB should be seen as a good barometer. On the upside, first significant resistance is the Tenkan-Sen (@ 49'600) then once again, the clouds resistance zone, currently between 50'000 and 50'650). As long as we stay below the latter level on a closing basis, the ongoing bearish pressure will remain. Of course, on a TACTICAL view, there are plenty of short term countertrend trading opportunities but... if taken, those long exposure, due to the high volatility, should be watched and monitored very closely in adopting a strict risk reward strategy and this depending on the choice of your time frame : 1. analyse the potential target 2. directly put in place a trailing stop losses strategy Therefore, I strongly suggest to monitor price action on multiple time frames, in starting from long term to very short term to have a global overview of the trend in different time frames and then to the opposite in beginning from the very short term time frames to the long term time frames to early detect signal (s). Last but not least, technical analysis is not an exact science, it is an art that can be compared to a painter in front of his painting, using several brushes and colors to refine the results of his work... Have a nice week and all the best. Take care Best regards Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Bürki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H1 - SAME STORY !H1 : The ongoing downtrend I mentioned yesterday morning is still intact. In addition, for the time being, the clouds, once again, did "the job" ! After having attempt several times to get out of the downtrend channel base, the BTCUSD, a couple of hours ago recovered, from its low reached of 46'789 (so far !) towards the H1 clouds resistance,currently between 48'600 and 49'400, interesting to note that the latter level, also coincides, currently with the downtrend channel (top resistance line !) RSI also slightly above the 50 level, @ 53.81 So what next ? No change in my view yet ! I still consider recent and current price action as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY and not as a strategic reversal yet. In order to neutralise, this ongoing bearish price action, the BTCUSD should, firstly in this hourly time frame, recovered and hold sustainably above the 50'000 which should be confirmed by a breakout of the 52'000 area which was the former high of Dec 7th. In H4, such kind of potential move (not expected) would confirm the H4 clouds resistance area and open the door for higher levels (fragile zone between 52'000 and 54'000) Finally, in the daily time frame, the first KEY PIVOT POINTS is currently @ 53'000 (downtrend line resistance and Kijun-Sen & Base Line) Only a clear sustainably breakout, on a daily basis of the 53'000 area would force to a view reassessment of my bearish view calling for lower levels. Have a nice weekend. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
10
US 10 YEARS - W1 - HARAMI !Last week price action triggered an "Harami" pattern, which is likely to trigger further sideways price action over the coming days ! Indeed, usually such kind of pattern, following a long black candle is normally bullish if the last candle is very small in comparison with the previous one, which is not the case now as the last weekly candle is pretty "big" which confirm some uncertainty about further development ! In addition, after having tested an intraweek low of 1.34% the week before, the 10 years recover again slightly above the top of the weekly clouds support which might be seen as a positive (yield) price action but... it is still below the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line, currently @ 1.52 % and upcoming price action this week and more important its closing level will give more clues for the future. Globally, the ongoing (yield) bearish downtrend is still in place and only a clear upside breakout of this downtrend channel top, currently @ 1.69%-1.70% would force to a view reassessment of the expected ongoing downside pressure calling for lower yield towards the bottom of the clouds support zone around 1.15% - 1.10 % which also coincides with the ongoing former uptrend support line, currently around 1.12 % and which also was the former lows reached on July-August. On a daily basis, watch the clouds resistance area and the Mid Bollinger band as a good barometer too a clear and sustainable breakout of those areas would be the first signal for further upside (yield). Have nice trading week. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
3
BTCUSD - H1 - ONGOING DOWNTREND CHANNELQuick update on the intraday one hour chart which is showing an ongoing downtrend channel ! Currently below the clouds (which are roughly around the 50'000 psychological level, below Kijun-Sen, still slightly below Mid Bollinger Band and slightly above Tenkan-Sen. Selling pressure remains heavy and in order to neutralise it (in this short term 1 hour time frame), the BTC should quickly recover and hold sustainably above 48'850 which could potentially open the door for higher levels towards the 50'000 area. Is this scenario going to happen ? May be or may be not ! The important thing to remember is that we are still in a tactical corrective move only (as already mentioned several times) and not in a strategic trend reversal yet. Levels to watch on H1 time frame are the following : R3. : 50'000 R2 : 48'900 R1 : 48'500 Current level : 48'455 S1 : 48'000 S2 : 47'500 S3 : 46'500 A breakout of S3 would open the door for lower levels towards the former low of 42'000 A confirmation of a strategic trend reversal would only be confirmed by an upside breakout on a daily basis of the 54'177 level ! In the meantime, there are plenty tactical trading opportunities to take advantage of, in using a strict risk reward approach and in putting in place a tight trailing stop losses strategy, which should be monitored very closely in screening carefully, intraday short term price action which will help you to detect early signal (s) of tactical trading opportunities. Last but not least, the yesterday's price action on a Daily basis, triggered, after three successive dojis patterns, a long black candle...and as long as the BTCUSD is below TS (on a daily closing basis), the direction will remain to the South... All the best
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD - D1 - 3RD CLOSING BELOW TS !DAILY : For the third consecutive day, the BTCUSD closed, on a daily basis below the Tenkan-Sen (TS) or Conversion line ; such kind of price action should be seen as a additional warning signal of a ongoing bearish trend. More over the last two trading days, triggered a "DOJI" pattern which is also a sign of uncertainty and indecision ! The first support target S1 (@ 49'240) I was calling for yesterday, has been reached with an intraday low so far @ 48'656. Today's closing level should add more clues for the upcoming trading sessions. Globally in this daily time frame, the broad picture remains bearish under the influence of several factors, such as the primary downtrend line resistance, currently @ 54'177 which also coincides with the PIVOT LEVEL (Kijun-Sen or Base Line). As already mentioned, on a daily basis closing level, only a clear sustainable breakout of the level previously mentioned would force to a view reassessment of my expected bearish scenario, calling at least for a retest of former low around 42'000 H4 : Watch the clouds ! For the time being the Kijun-Sen rejected several downside breakout attempts and the CHIKOU SPAN or Lagging line crossed over the Tenkan-Sen. In term of trend in this time frame we can see a switch from a former uptrend which started form 42'000 towards a high so far of 52'000 to a new ongoing downtrend with its downtrend line resistance currently around 50'700, which also coincides with the top of the 4 hours clouds. A clear breakout of 52'000 would open the door for higher levels in activating a pullback towards the former uptrend support line, currently around 53'000-53'500, approaching the KEY PIVOT LEVEL OF 54'177 ABOVE MENTIONED and which corroborate globally my technical analysis. Do you like my work ? Do you find it valuable for your ? If your answer is YES, please do not forget to firstly like it and secondly do not forget to add Ironman8848 on your following list either. Have a great trading day. All the best and take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Bürki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTCUSD -D1- BEARISH SCENARIO ALIVE !DAILY : As mentioned in my previous analysis written 2 days ago, the expected recovery took place on a CORRECTIVE TACTICAL MOVE ONLY... and not as a strategic trend reversal yet !!! Indeed, so far the Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 50'608, worked well in rejecting its upside breakout and yesterday's price action, after having roughly reached an intraday of roughly 52'000, the closing level @ 50'627, triggered a DOJI pattern which should be seen as an additional warning signal, calling for a new downside move. Daily picture is still showing a broad bear picture with its clear downtrend resistance line (in red) which also coincides with one on my favorite barometer indicator (Mid Bollinger Band) and last but not least with the KIjun-Sen or Base line which is currently @ 54'177 and which should be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL on this daily time frame !!! : in addition, the RSI is in a broad bear trend price action too. Only a clear sustainable breakout of 54'177 would force to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario. Levels to watch at very carefully are the following on a daily closing basis : R3 : 55'385 R2 : 54'177 R1 : 52'000 CURRENT LEVEL : 50'315 S1 : 49'240 S2 : 47'111 S3 : 42'000 H4 : Watch the Mid Bollinger Band as a good barometer indicator too (bullish above and bearish below on a H4 closing basis); currently slightly above it and under selling pressure; watch the ongoing H4 closing period (s) which will give your more clues as a failure to hold above 49'830 would open the door for lower level with the focus on the next significant support level which is the Tenkan-Sen or Base Line @ 47'922. This level, on this H4 time frame should be seen as a Key pivot level too. H1 : Still above the clouds but already below Kijun-Sen, Mid Bollinger Band and Tenkan-Sen; Lagging line is currently trying to cross under Tenkan-Sen !!! Watch the clouds and the price action of the Lagging line too. Have a nice trading day and do not forget ; "THE TREND IS ALWAYS YOUR FRIEND" and if you fight against it, please be sure to act accordingly in protecting your tactical exposure with tight trailing stop losses !!! Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
SHIBUSD - D1 - THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND...WEEKLY : Fifth consecutive black candle...The 61.8% Fib ret @ 0.00003702 has already been filled with an intraweek low @ 0.00002915 reached last week. Global picture does not smell good !!! Indeed on this time frame the pressure remains to the downside ! DAILY : In an ongoing downtrend move; below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Tenkan-Sen ! RSI below 50 @ 38.00 Only a recovery above the cluster (0.00004174-0.00004356) would neutralise the ongoing downside risk in that Daily time frame H4 : Same picture than for the Daily chart; watch the downtrend line resistance (in red) H1 Recovery attempt in this time frame; watch Tenkan-Sen on a 1 hour closing basis. A successful upside breakout would be the first signal of a tactical recovery with an upside pretty limited towards Mid Bollinger Band ahead of Kijun-Sen SELL ON RALLY Ironman8848
FTX:SHIBUSD
by Ironman8848
2
ETHUSD- D1 - WATCH THE CLOUDS TOO !!!WEEKLY : Still in its ongoing uptrend channel, last weekly closing above the Tenkan-Sen. Ongoing weekly candle is going down... Watch Mid Bollinger Band and bottom line of the uptrend channel as the first significant support level as a weekly closing below 3'700 would open the door for lower levels towards the Kijun-Sen, currently @ 3'285 DAILY : Currently in a broad sideways slightly down channel (in orange on the chart) and in the middle of the daily clouds support area. Watch carefully price action of the Lagging Line which is currently below the Kijun-Sen... First significant support is @ 3'761 (50 % Fib ret) and also roughly the bottom of the daily clouds support zone and below the next support is @ 3'498 which is the 61.8% Fib Ret. Interesting to look at the RSI price action, currently below the 50 level, @ 42.37 H4 : Below the clouds and below Mid Bollinger Band, Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen... looks like ready for at least a retest of former low @ 3'753 where a potential bullish divergence (double bottom could take place !) Watch carefully price action during the ongoing and next H4 period to get clues. RSI below 50 too @ 36.81 H1 : Below the clouds and below all three main indicators... for the time being, any recovery should still be seen as a corrective move in a broad bear trend (see daily chart) The ETHUSD should quickly recover at least above 4'200/4'250 on this H1 time frame in order to temporary neutralise the ongoing downside risk. All the best and take care Ironman8848
GEMINI:ETHUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H4 - CAUGHT BETWEEN TS AND KS !WEEKLY : Following its weekly closing @ 49'463, below the former uptrend support line, the BTCUSD began the week in the red again. DAILY : Indeed, last daily closing triggered a "DOJI" pattern which confirm growing uncertainty about further development and which looks like an increase of the selling pressure. RSI @ 31.38 H4 : Looking now at the 4 hours time frame, we can clearly see that the BTCUSD is caught between the Tenkan-Sen & Conversion Line and the Kijun-Sen & Base Line, which are respectively @ 48'800 and 49'800. The Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 50'960 should, as already mentioned several times, really be seen as a very good indicator in considering this line as a barometer, which means BULLISH above and BEARISH below... In addition, the Tenkan-Sen coincides also with a minor uptrend support line which if broken on a H4 closing basis, would directly open the door for lower levels, towards firstly the 46'500 area, ahead of former low around 42'000 reached on Dec 4th. Last but not least a rising wedge formation is in progress on RSI ! H1 : Uncertainty confirmed by the recent and current price action within the clouds... Interesting to note that the H1 bottom clouds also coincides with the support level above mentioned on H4 ! CONCLUSION : Globally it does not smell good ! No change in my expected bearish scenario and any new long tactical exposure should be monitored very closely in adopting a disciplined risk management and in respecting a rational Risk Reward ratio !!! For those who discover Ironman8848 and who like my analysis, please do not forget to firstly like it and add Ironman8848 on your following list. Many thanks in advance. Have a nice week and all the best. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
NQ1 100 MINI FUT - W1- IN TROUBLE !!!Looking at the latest week price action we can see that this indice is currently potentially in big trouble !!! Indeed, if you go back towards the low reached in March 2020, you can see that each time, the selling pressure has been stopped by both the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen !! Magical isnt'it ? Not at all, it is the powerful Ichimoku approach which once again worked, in the past perfectly well, in each time rejecting the downside breakout attempt. The question is now ? Would the same story is going to repeat itself for the 5th time, YES or NO ??? Indeed, a failure to hold on a weekly closing basis above the support cluster of 15567-15229 would be very negative for the upcoming week (s), opening the door for lower levels towards, respectively 14'358 (former low of the beginning of October ahead of the weekly clouds support zone (13'330-12'000), please note that 12'881 is the 38.2 % Fib retracement of the 6'626 - 16747 rally) and the 50 % is @ 11'686, slighly below the weekly clouds bottom support !!! CONCLUSION : Global picture remains heavy and a failure to quickly recover above 16'300-16'500 (middle of the long previous black candle) would add further selling pressure. Watch and monitor very closely daily and intraday price action, which will help you to validate or invalidate this expected bearish scenario calling for lower levels. All the best and take care Ironman8848
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Ironman8848
US 30 YEARS - W1 - CLOUDS BROKEN !!!Last week price action triggered, as for the US 10 years, a long black candle which in this case also broke the weekly bottom clouds support level @ 1.85. The US 30 years is currently on an ongoing downtrend channel, very close to the 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 1.6130 (0.71-2.5160); RSI below 50 @ 34.04. Watch closely price ongoing price action and monitor closely the Lagging line which for the time being, after having successively broken the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen is still above the clouds !!! A failure, for the Lagging line to close on the next weekly closing basis above the clouds would add further pressure to the downside in putting the focus for lower levels towards the next significant support area around 1.40% which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. CONCLUSION : As for the US 10 years, watch and monitor closely price action on a daily and intraday basis to detect early reversal signal (s) whihc for the time being should be seen as a corrective move in broad ongoing (yield) bearish trend. Ironman8848
TVC:US30Y
by Ironman8848
US 10 YEARS - W1 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !Last week price action triggered a long black candle which broke on a weekly closis basis, both the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen or Base line. Such kind of price action should be seen as a negative (yield ) signal, calling for lower levels. In addition, the former uptrend support line which stated at the beginning of August @ 1.1270 has also been broken which also should be seen as an additionnal warning signal calling for further downside move with the focus on the bottom of the weekly clouds, currently around 1.15% which also roughly coincides with the cluster of former bottom and the primary uptrend support line. Therefore, this 1.15%-1.10% next significant support area, on a weekly closing basis, should be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL !!! MONTHLY PICTURE : Looking briefly at this long term time frame, we can see that the cluster (Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen is also currently @ 1.1500 which corroborate my weekly view above mentioned. A failure to hold above this point, would open the door for lower level towards 1.0570 (50% Fib ret) ahead of 0.8870 (61.8% Fib ret) CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely price action on a daily and intraday basis to detect early reversal signal (s) which for the time being should be seen as a corrective move in a broad ongoing (yield) bearish trend. Ironman8848
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD -H4- SUCCESSIVE DOJIS = WARNING H4 : As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis,(see related ideas the corrective recovery move went up so far towards a high of 49'762, nearly filling the 50% Fibonacci retracement (49'882) of the last downside move from 57673 towards 42'074. In addition as already said the psychological level of 50'000 has not been broken either and recent and current price action on H4 time frame is showing successive dojis patterns which should be seen as a growing uncertainty and as a warning of an imminent trend reversal calling for lower levels. Looking ahead and on both side I would suggest to look carefully at the following levels : UPSIDE : 50'000 as Resistance 1 (R1) 50'600 as R2 52'878 as R3 DOWNSIDE : 47'975 as Support 1 (S1) 46'600 as S2 42'074 as S3 Globally recent and current price action should still be seen as a corrective move only in a broad bear trend (respectively, below the primary and secondary downtrend line resistance) and below the clouds, which is confirmed by the Lagging line which is still far away below the clouds !!! CONCLUSION : No change in my view,THE ONGOING SELLING PRESSURE IS STILL INTACT, and looking at the weekly picture, a weekly closing below the former uptrend line support (50'900) and below the Mid Bollinger Band (51'673) would add further selling pressure for the coming trading days !!! Only a successful recovery above those 2 levels mentioned and this on a weekly closing basis would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario. Have a nice Sunday and take care. All the best Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
6
BTCUSD - MY DT TARGET @ 46000 FILLED !!Good morning to all of you. I hope you are well today ? My double top technical target, already mentioned a couple days ago, with a technical target @ 46'000 has easily been filled with an intraday low reached early this morning @ 42'074. So what next ? This sharp downside move has, and it is obvious, triggered a TACTICAL REVERSAL ONLY !!! Indeed, no strategic BULLISH signal (s) have been confirmed yet and that is why, recent and current price action should once again be seen as a corrective move only and not as a strategic trend reversal yet. Technical indicators, such RSI (below 50 and currently @ 28.32) is still converging to the downside ! On a daily basis and in order to neutralise the still ongoing downside pressure, the BTCUSD should recover firstly above the former uptrend support line (in green), which is currently slightly above the psychological 50'000 level. WEEKLY : On the downside, plenty of space, the 78,6% Fib @ 45'883 of the 39'590-69'000 rally has also been filled, in by the way, testing the top of the weekly clouds support area and the next significant support area is between 40'000 and 39'590 (starting point of the 74 % rally or + 29'410 rally which took place from the end of September to the beginning of November. Last but not least the 39'590 level is roughly in the middle of the weekly clouds support zone with its bottom level, currently around 36'750 ONGOING UPCOMING WEEKLY CLOSING WILL GIVE MORE CLUES FOR NEXT WEEK :-) H4 Everything worked perfectly well, clouds, Mid Bollinger Band, Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen, what else ? Well, the picture does not look good either ! !! RSI still converging to the South ! Any recovery is corrective only and should be protected with tight stop losses. H1 : The recovery went up towards the 38.2% Fib ret @ 48'050 which is also the Tenkan-Sen and which for the time being rejected further upside attempt. Watch carefully this level of 48'050 as a clear breakout of this level on a hourly closing level would open the door for 49'882 ahead of 51'714. Once again, if such kind of price action occurs, this should only be seen as a corrective tactical move in a broad strategic bear trend Have a nice weekend, all the best and take care. Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTCUSD - D1 - WATCH THE CLOUDS & MBB !DAILY : Currently in a broad bear trend channel, roughly in the middle of the clouds and trying to hold above on a daily basis above the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line @ 56'463. BTCUSD remains under selling pressure and for the time being we saw, over the last couple of sessions, successive failures to recover, firstly above the Mid Bollinger Band, which, as already mentioned several times, should be seen as a good barometer which will help you to jauge the temperature... (Bullish above and bearish below !) RSI below 50, @ 45.10 In addition, the clouds should also be watch at very carefully; indeed, only a clear sustainable upside breakout of the top of the clouds (around 61'000 & Kijun-Sen), on a daily closing basis would neutralise the ongoing downside risk , calling for lower levels, firstly towards the bottom of the clouds, currently around 53'000. This level should also be seen as the first significant support area, already tested successively three times last week... A failure to stay and hold above 53'000 would put the focus on the former uptrend support line (in green) currently around the psychological level of 50'000. Last but not least, do not forget, that the double top formation has been validated by the breakout of its trigger level @ 57'500 and the technical target of this formation is @ 46'000. H4 : Yesterday's rally towards an intraday high of 59'105 has once again been short lived... the reversal has been triggered by a long black candle (bearish engulfing pattern) which pushed the BTCUSD lower towards the H4 clouds support area. Please note that the Kijun-Sen, currently in the middle of the clouds @ 56'280 hold, for the time being and should be seen as an important support level on this time frame. Levels to watch on H4 are the following : downside : 56'000 upside : 57'300 / 57'500 RSI @ 49.98 H1 : Currently below the clouds, RSI below 50 @ 47.27 Watch the clouds resistance area around 57'500 which corroborate my view on H4 and D1 above mentioned. MBB is slightly below the clouds and Kijun-Sen in the middle of the clouds. If you like my analysis and you find it valuable for your trading strategies, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please also add Ironman8848 on your following list. Many thanks in advance. Have a nice trading day Kind regards Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - D1 - NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET !DAILY : The BTCUSD is not out of the woods yet; indeed, recent and current price action is still in the clouds currently traded around the important pivot level of 57'500 (double top trigger level !) Despite a recovery attempt seen yesterday which trigger an upside move towards an intraday high of 59'476 (rejected by the top clouds resistance...once again :-)... the BTCUSD lost momentum and as a result went down again towards a low so far of 57'525. No change in my view, on a daily basis obervation, the 57'500 area should be seen as a PIVOT LEVEL for further development. Also note that this point coincides roughly with the level of the ongoing uptrend support line in green. A failure to close on a daily basis above 57'500 and hold sustainably above it would trigger further selling pressure, putting the focus on lower levels towards the bottom of the daily clouds, currently @ 53'400, which is also the former primary uptrend support line (In bold green) On the upside, as already mentioned several times, only a clear breakout of the daily top clouds resistance level & ongoing downtrend line resistance (in red), - currently around 60'400 - would neutralise the ongoing dowsnside risk, calling for the levels previously mentioned. Last but not least, do not forget the influence of the double top pattern which is still alive; a validation of this formation (daily closing below 57'500) would give a technical target of 46'000 CONCLUSION : Continue to watch and monitor very closely ongoing price action in intraday shorter time frames which will help you to detect early indication & signal of the potential validation or invalidation of this important double top formation. On a weekly basis, as long as the BTCUSD hold above the TS (54'882) on a weekly basis, it is OK but a failure to do it would considerably increase the risk for lower levels towards the 50'000 area (KS). I will be off from now and until Tuesday morning (Nov 30th), away from my screen for a long weekend in Bordeaux with my wonderful spouse for my birthday :-) ;therefore I will not published any update or analysis during that time. I wish you a very nice weekend and all the best to all of you. Take care. Kind regards Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2