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Ironman8848

BTCUSD-D1- ADDITIONNAL BEARISH SIGNAL !As expected, yesterday's small recovery has been short lived !!! Indeed, RSI bearish divergence on H1, triggered a corrective move only, pushing up the BTCUSD towards an intraday high of 57'882, missing to breakout the clouds resistance area on this time frame... (magical clouds :-)...) In addition, recent price action triggered an other bearish signal : the lagging line crossed under the Kijun-Sen which should be seen as a second warning bearish signal following a first daily closing level (on Nov 22nd), below the double top trigger level of 57'500 !! So what next ? No change in my bearish view; current level are roughly in the middle of the daily clouds and I suggest to watch closely at the clouds which will tell you in which direction the BTCUSD will go. On the upside , the TS @ 58'687 is the first significant resistance level to look at and as long as ww stay below this point, the bearish pressure will remains ! In order to neutralise this ongoing downside price action, we need to see a clear breakout of the psychological 60'000 former support which became now an important resistance level to break on the upside ! On the downside, , no secret, watch again the clouds support zone, currently around 53'400 which also coincides with the former uptrend line support (in green). A failure to hold above 53'400 would directly put the focus on the 50'000 area ahead of the double top technical target @ 46'000 Have a nice trading day. Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE !Last daily closing level @ 56'353 which means below the double top trigger level @ 57'500; this should be seen as the first warning validation signal of this double top formation, calling for a technical target @ 46'000. Once again the clouds worked perfectly well as you can see on this daily chart in rejecting, yesterday, an upside breakout attempt @ 59'580 which coincides exactly with the top of the clouds resistance... "magical fact",,, isnt'it ? No, it is not a "magical fact", it is the powerful value of Ichimoku :-), trust me ! So what next ? No change in my view, recent and current price action should still be seen as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY and not as a trend reversal yet !!! Indeed, as already mentioned, in order to neutralise this ongoing bearish price action (on a daily basis analysis !), the BTCUSD should recover and hold at least above the psychological 60'000 level which is also by the way the level of Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line (@ 60'050). ONLY A SUSTAINABLE MOVE ABOVE 60'000 WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF MY BEARISH VIEW; THIS SHOULD BE CONFIRM BY A BREAKOUT OF THE ONGOING DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE LEVEL, WHICH IS CURRENTLY AROUND 62'000 (MBB being @ 61'800) On the downside, bottom of the clouds (@ 53'200) and also, currently the former uptrend support line should be seen as the first significant support level area ahead of the psychological 50'000 level. RSI @ 39.02 INTRADAY PICTURE : H4 : In an ongoing downtrend channel, below MBB, TS and KS and last but not least, below the clouds ! RSI converging to the downside and below 50, @ 39.48 H1 : Same than H4, in an ongoing downtrend channel and below the cluster above mentioned. Watch potential RSI bullish divergence (potential short term double bottom around recent intraday low) which may trigger some small recovery and might be used, having in mind a tactical long exposure countertrend which should be monitor and protect with trailing stop losses accordingly !!! Have a nice trading day and all the best. Take care Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - D1 - REMAINS UNDER DT INFLUENCE !DAILY : DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS STILL ALIVE As mentioned in my previous analysis (see related ideas below), the recovery which took place recently was only a corrective move in a broad new bear trend which started @ ATH 69'000. Indeed, the ongoing double top formation is still intact and a daily closing below its trigger level (@ 57'500) would be the first warning signal which would confirm this bearish formation, calling for a target @ 46'000 The clouds, once again worked perfectly well in rejecting the upside breakout and I will strongly suggest to monitor carefully price action around the clouds as failure to hold above the daily clouds will be the second signal calling for further downside and a move towards the psychological 50'000 first, ahead of 46'000 previously mentioned. Look also RSI price action which continue to converge to the downside in being below the 50 level. WEEKLY : LAST WEEK PRICE ACTION TRIGGERED A BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN ( Long black candle) !!! On this time frame the next significant support is @ 54'295 while on the upside the next important level to look at is @ 60'000. In order to neutralise the ongoing downside price action on this weekly time frame, BTCUSD should recover at least above 62'100 which if occurs, would trigger a "PIERCING LINE PATTERN", which would be seen as a reversal signal in this weekly time frame. IMPORTANT LEVELS TO WATCH ON A WEEKLY BASIS ARE THE FOLLOWING : 54'295 62'100 INTRADAY - 4 HOURS - KIJUN-SEN UNDER ATTACK !!! On the intraday, 4 hours picture, the Kijun-Sen @ 57'368 is under attack and a failure to hold above it on the next closing observation would also be a warning signal for further downside; on short term a move above the MBB, currently @ 58'205 ahead of TS (@ 58'450) would temporary slow the current bearish move and reopen the door for the psychological and important resistance level of 60'000 which should really clearly be broken and if it is the case, that would force to a view reassessment of my still bearish expected scenario already detected a couple days ago. Do you like, the way I work in explaining my views ? If it is the case, please do not forget : 1) to like it 2) to add Ironman8848 in your following list, if it is not done yet :-) 3) write a comment or remark which will be welcome Have a nice trading week and all the best. Take care Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H1 - CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY !!!Following my previous analysis, just published a couple minutes ago, I will go more in depth on shorter time frame and I am going to explain the price action expected in this 1 hour time frame. As you can see on the RSI indicator, a bullish divergence took place and it has been done on the long candle (hammer) and also around the TS; such kind of price action should continue slightly to the North with an upside pretty limited. Indeed, KS (56'900) ahead of MBB (57'500) will be the first significant resistance levels on this time frame !!! Please note that MBB coincides also with the double top trigger level mentioned in my previous analysis... CONCLUSION : For the time being, BTCUSD remains a SELL on rally on strategic view and short term countertrend trading opportunities should be exploited with a disciplinated approach in adopting a serious risk management monitoring !!!! All the best Have a nice trading day Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD - D1 - LOW SO FAR 53'760...As expected the ongoing downside selling pressure, firstly broke the double top trigger level (@ 57'500) and more important close below it. This breakout triggered an acceleration which pushed the BTCUSD sharply down towards an intraday low so far of 53'760, close to the bottom of the clouds support which once again worked perfectly well as an important level to break!!! So what next ? As already mentioned, the train is gone, but between point A and point B there are some "STOPS" and it is normal to see some recovery within this ongoing daily & weekly price action, which should still be seen only as a corrective move and not as a trend reversal yet... Daily target is @ 46'000, which is the double top technical target. Only a sustainable recovery above firstly 57'500 and more important 60'000 would force to a view reassessment of my expected bearish scenario. INTRADAY : On shorter time frames (ie 1 hour), bullish divergence has been detected which triggered a small recovery which is likely to be very limited on the upside. I will post straight away a specific technical analysis on this 1 hour time frame WEEKLY : Ongoing bearish engulfing pattern in progress (should, of course, be confirmed on a weekly closing !!; TS @ 54'295 has been tested and has for the time being rejected the downside breakout attempt. All the best Take care Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - D1 - DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !DAILY : The Daily picture is clearly showing a double top formation in progress, its trigger level being @ 57'500; a breakout confirmed of this point would activate this bearish formation in opening the door for a technical target @ 46'000. Global picture is not very encouraging at all; indeed, the BTCUSD, is currently in an ongoing downtrend; meaning in a SELL ON RALLY MODE ! In addition, current level around 60'000 is firstly showing some uncertainty and nervousness; moreover, we are also below the important cluster area (MBB, KS and TS) which should not be underestimated... Of course, the daily clouds area, currently between 58'422 (top of the clouds and also roughly the former intraday low reached yesterday (58'435) and 53'300 should be seen as the first significant support zone on this time frame; please, also note the thickness of the clouds which should also be considered as a strong support to break. On the indicator side, RSI is continuing to converge to the downside and is currently below 50, @ 44.24. Only a clear sustainable recovery above the 63'000 would force to a reassessment view of the expected bearish scenario above mentioned. WEEKLY : Looking briefly at the weekly picture, we can see a "BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN" in progress, which of course, would be validated only on a weekly basis closing level; in term of support levels, we can see : - S1 @ 57'765 (warning !double top trigger level @ 57'500) see above for implication - S2 @ 54'295 (also TS) - S3 @ 50'824 Global weekly picture remains supported by respectively the Mid Bollinger Band (currently @ 50'000) ahead of both KS and the uptrend support line (currently @ 48'900) 4 HOURS : Ongoing downtrend channel (mentioned in my previous analysis) remains intact and current level is below the middle level of this downtrend channe, on the lower part and traded around the Tenkan-Sen @ 59'812 Sideways price action for the Lagging Line which is also below the clouds... As mentioned yesterday, no Bullish divergence has been detected yet and recent and current price action should still be seen as a corrective move only and not yet as a trend reversal yet. CONCLUSION : Monitor and watch closely at the price action on intraday shorter time frames to detect early signal (s) of bullish divergence or bearish convergence !!! Have a nice trading day and all the best to all of you. Take care. Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4 - REMAINS A SELL ON RALLY ...As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis the failure to hold above the psychological support level of 60'000, triggered a downside acceleration which pushed the BTCUSD towards a low so far of 58'573; my first technical target of 57'765 has not been reached yet... So what next ? Well, it is likely to see further downside in the cards ! Indeed, looking at the H4 price action, there is no bullish divergence detected yet and therefore, for the time being, any recovery should be seen as a corrective move only in a broad new downtrend = SELL ON RALLY ! In this H4 time frame, a downtrend channel took place, from the top of 69'000 (confirmed by the failure to upside breakout clouds resistance on Nov 15th !); currently below the cluster of TS, KS and MBB and last but not least the Lagging line is far below the clouds... RSI is confirming NO BULLISH DIVERGENCE YET and is showing some small recovery in a broad bear trend. The former support zone(62'700-63'000) of what I called "RED ZONE" in my previous analysis should now be seen as the first significant resistance area if the BTCUSD achieved to recover firstly and hold sustainably above the 60'000 area. On the downside, on the daily picture, the clouds support area (58'000-53'300 should be seen as an important support zone; by the way, 54'295 is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 39'590-69'000 rally and last but not least the TS in the weekly time frame CONCLUSION : As already mentioned, several times, plenty of short term countertrend trading opportunities could be exploited if you monitor very, very closely shorter time frames to detect early reversal signal (s); do not forget to apply a disciplinated risk management in placing stop losses accordingly :-) Have a great trading day and all the best. "May your long goes up and your short goes down" Last but not least, if you like my work and you find my analysis valuable for you,(any feedback welcome :-), please do not forget to like it first and for those who do not follow me yet, please also add Ironman8848 on your following list. Many thanks in advance. Take care. Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - DAILY CLOSING BELOW 65'500 !Despite an intraday high reached yesterday @ 66'340, the BTCUSD failed to close above the top range of the "RED ZONE" @ 65'500 mentioned in my previous analysis !!! . Such kind of price action triggered, as expected, further downside selling pressure which pushed the BTCUSD towards a low so far of 60'406, very close to the psychological support level of 60'000. This recent downside move, and it is obvious, triggered, on very short term time frames (5 minutes) a RSI bullish divergence which pushed the BTCUSD slightly up; nevertheless, it should be seen, for the time being, as a corrective move only, in an ongoing bear trend which took recently place, calling for lower levels... Indeed, looking at the 4 hours chart, the clouds have been clearly broken, confirmed also by a downside breakout of the lagging line ; in order to neutralise this ongoing selling pressure, the BTCUSD, should on this time frame, quickly recover above the clouds zone which is currently between 64'500 and 65'500, the latter level being the top range of the RED ZONE previously mentioned. CONCLUSION : The 60'000 important support level is likely to be tested soon and a failure to hold sustainably above it would trigger a downside move acceleration toward the next significant support area, which is @ 57'765 on a daily basis analysis. On a weekly basis, the Tenkan-Sen, which should be seen as an important indicator support level, is @ 54'295. Again, monitor closely, intraday price action on shorter time frames, which will help you to get intermediate signal (s) such as bullish divergence or bearish convergence which will validate or invalidate my analysis, allowing you to act accordingly
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTCUSD - D1 - RED ZONE (62'700 - 65'500) !DAILY PICTURE : Yesterday's closing below the Tenkan-Sen,(currently @ 64'560) and which should be seen as the first important level to look at very carefully. Indeed, a failure, to close, later on today above this point would put the focus on the next significant support level, @ 62'700, already mentioned in my previous analysis (see related idea below) and which is also the bottom of the "RED ZONE". A daily closing above 64'560 would open the door for the top of the "RED ZONE @ 65'500 4 HOURS PICTURE : Once again clouds support zone worked perfectly well in rejecting several time downside breakout attempts. Therefore, I strongly suggest to continue to monitor very closely ongoing price action in order to validate an exit, either on the upside or on the downside of the clouds area ! It is not surprising at all, that, respectively the bottom of the clouds coincides roughly with the cluster of TS and MBB while on the upside, slightly above the top of the clouds you will find the KS resistance !!! WEEKLY PICTURE Weekly closing level tonight will also be important for further development; indeed, a second potential "shooting" star is in progress on this weekly chart. Looking broadly on this weekly time frame, the trend is still pointing to the NORTH; main support being around the 54'000 level (uptrend support line and TS) CONCLUSION : Monitor closely price action, in starting from very short term time frames (15-30 MIN) to get intermediate signal (s) which should be validated by longer time frames !!! Have a nice Sunday. Take care and all the best Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - WHY I REMAIN BEARISH ?A lot of my followers asked me recently... why I was so bearish ? I will try to "justify" my bearish view in looking today, at the daily and at the 4 hours time frames, which, for me, both of them are quite representative of the recent and current price action which is likely to trigger further downside move towards the 60'000 at least if some important support levels were to be broken on a daily closing basis !!! DAILY Under the pressure of a RSI bearish divergence confirmed a couple days ago which is also showing a double top formation in progress, which is for the time being, of course, still quite far away of its trigger level @ 56'425 ! In addition, the global picture is also showing a rising wedge pattern in progress, with its support line, which also coincides with the important D1 cluster level (currently @ 62'700). Last daily closing level was below TS & conversion line and should be seen as the first warning signal for further downside which would be confirmed by ongoing closing level below TS or better below the pivot support level @ 62'700. Confirmation of the rising wedge downside breakout (@ 62'700) would give a technical target of 52'000 which is also currently the daily clouds bottom support level !!! 4 HOURS The double top target (@ 63'000) has already been filled in this time frame; it has been followed by a pullback attempt which has been, so far, rejected by all three major resistances !!! Currently under pressure, slightly below the H4 clouds support zone. RSI below 50 Failure to quickly recover above MBB (currently @ 64'945) should open the door for former recent bottom @ 62'300 and then 61'700 (very minor uptrend line support level) ahead of the psychological 60'000 level or even potentially lower. CONCLUSION : D1 : Levels to watch, on a daily closing basis, are the following : R1 : 64'550 S1 : 62'700 A daily close either above or below one of the level above mentioned should trigger a roughly 4'500 points. Have a great weekend and may your long goes up and your short goes down Do you like my analysis ? If yes, please do not forget : 1) to like it 2) to add Ironman8848 on your following list that will be great :-) Many thanks in advance. All the best and take care. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
AUDUSD - DAILY - TREND REVERSAL - BUYTHE 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 0.727790 has been filled overnight; currently in recovery progress, daily clouds support zone has also be tested. Looks like a good buying opportunity (around 0.7290-0.7305) calling for a recovery towards the cluster of TS, KS ahead of MBB (0.7403 -0.7443) Watch ongoing support trend line (in red) and put a stop loss below in case it goes on the wrong side. All the best take care If you like my analysis, please do not forget to like it and add me on your following list Many thanks in advance Ironman8848
Long
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - W1/D1 -"GOODBYE" OR "GOOD BUY"Would it be a "goodbye" or a "goodbuy", that is the question ? We should get the answer quite soon :-) Indeed, looking at the weekly picture, a double top formation is in progress and the price action seen over the last three weeks (following the rally from 40'000 towards 63'000) is showing some lack of momentum, uncertainty and indecision, confirmed by a shooting star (already detected in my previous analysis) and two successive small body candles !!! Therefore, once again the ongoing weekly closing level will be important to look at, as a failure to show a new long white candle (bullish confirmation) would add further doubt about upside continuation. On a weekly basis, the first significant support level is currently @ 53'300. On the upside a weekly closing above 61'350 would mark a new ATH weekly closing and in order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk we need to see at least a weekly close above 63'000 DAILY : Currently still within the ongoing uptrend channel, with Mid Bollinger band, which should, once again, be seen as a good barometer for further development, bullish above and bearish below ! Watch also carefully KS (currently @ 60'453) which should be considered at the pivot level on a daily basis. Indeed, a failure to hold above 60'000 on a daily closing basis, should open the door for lower levels, calling for 56'425 (38.2% Fib ret) also mid level of the uptrend channel, ahead of 53'195 (50 % Fib ret & daily clouds support CONCLUSION : Continue to closely monitor intraday price action in shorter time frames which will give you intermediate clues (validation or invalidation) and which allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice Sunday and if you like my analysis, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on TradingView, please also add Ironman8848 on your following list. Many thanks in advance Take care and all the best Ironman8848 :-)
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
5
SHIBUSD - W1/D1 - PIVOT LEVELS !DAILY : 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 0.00004689 has been filled. Currently traded around an important key pivot level @ 0.00004890 (MBB) !!! Indeed, a failure to stay and hold on a daily closing observation above this level would be the first warning signal, calling for further downside. Next significant support level being @ 0.00003702 WEEKLY : Dark cloud cover pattern in progress ! A weekly closing below 0.5153 would confirm this pattern which also would be seen as an additional warning bearish signal; I would add that a weekly closing below 0.00004689 (TS & KS cluster) would also add further selling pressure which should accelerate the downside move calling for 0.00003702 which is also roughly the opening level of the long white bullish candle of the previous week (Opening @ 0.00003604 and Closing @ 0.00006706 with an intraweek high @ 0.00008870 !) CONCLUSION . Watch 0.00004890 on a daily closing basis and 0.00005153 & 0.00004689 on a weekly basis. In the meantine, watch also carefully price action on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to get intermediate clues (validation or invalidation !) in allowing you to act accordingly. Have a nice Friday. Al the best Take care Do you like my analysis and do you find it is an added value for you ? If yes, please do not forget to like it and if you do not follow me yet, please also add Ironman8848 in your following list. Many thanks in advance. Ironman8848
FTX:SHIBUSD
by Ironman8848
7
BTCUSD - W1 - SHOOTING STAR + DOJI !WEEKLY (W1) Prior week a "SHOOTING STAR" had been triggered which has been followed, last week by a "DOJI" which is adding further pressure to the downside as an uncertainty and indecision is growing... So what next ? Well, in looking in this weekly picture, the first significant support level @ 58'100 has been tested with an intraweek low seen last week @ 57'500. As long as the BTCUSD stays on a weekly closing above 58'100, it is OK for a the time being. A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF 58'100 WOULD PUT THE FOCUS ON THE 53'200-52'300 TRADING RANGE !!! Interesting to note that the top of weekly clouds support area is around 43'300 which is also the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of the 28'600-66'994, June-October rally. DAILY (D1) Looking briefly at the daily picture, the ongoing downtrend channel is intact, and levels to watch in this time frame are the following : UPSIDE : 63'000 DOWNSIDE : 60'000 A daily closing level, either above 63'000 or below 60'000 would open potentially the door for a 4'000 points move, targeting respectively a retest of former high around 67'000 and a move towards 56500/56'000 on the downside. 4 HOURS (H4) Watch the clouds ! Have a great week. Take care and all the best. Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
US 10 YEARS - W1 - BEARISH ENGULFING !Weekly (W1) After a RSI bearish divergence detected the week before, the last week price action triggered a "Bearish Engulfing pattern" which should be seen as a second warning signal calling for a trend reversal ! Indeed, looking back we can see 2 clear trends and in monitoring the ongoing uptrend we can easily see the failure to confir m an upside breakout of the ongoing uptrend channel. So, looking forward, it is likely to see further downside towards 1.4850 % first (38.2 % Fib ret & Tenkan-Sen), ahead of 1.4170 % (50% & Kijun-Sen). Mid-Bollinger Band, slightly below and currently @ 1.40 % should again be seen as the barometer indicator, having in mind the following mood : Above 1.4000 % bullish (yield) and below 1.4000 % ( bearish yield) Interesting to note that a failure to stay and hold above 1.4000 % on a weekly closing basis would confirm a downside breakout of this ongoing uptrend channel and potentially open the door for a new downtrend move, calling for 1.35 % - 1.25 %. On the upside, only a clear breakout of the former high @ 1.7060 would neutralise the downside risk and would open the door for higher level towards 1.80-1.90 (former congestion top) Daily (D1) : Failure to recover both above TS and Mid Bollinger band on a daily closing basis should also be seen as a negative signal, calling for further downside. In addition, the 10 Years US Treasury is currently flirting with the Kijun-Sen important level support @ 1.550 %. A daily closing level below 1.55 % would also add further selling pressure (yield) which would open the door for the levels above mentioned in my W1 analysis. On this time frame, very interesting to note that the clouds support area coincides with the Fibonacci retracement, 1.4170 % and 1.3480 %, being respectively the 50 % and 61.8%. CONCLUSION : Watch the clouds on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to get intermediate signal (s) for validation or invalidation of the scenarios above mentioned. H 4 : below the clouds H1 : bottom of the clouds under attack M30, M15, M5 : below the clouds Do you like my analysis ? If yes, do not hesitate to like it and if it is not done yet, please do not forget to add Ironman8848 in your following list. Many thanks in advance All the best and take care. Ironman8848 :-)
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4 - TRADING IN THE ZONE - HEAT MAP !Good morning to all of you :-) I hope you are well ? Today, I decided to just show you an heat map of the BTCUSD (4 hourS time frame). The picture is pretty clear and the chart speaks for itself ! What do you think ? Any comments are welcome :-) Have a great Sunday and take care All the best Ironman8848 PS : If you like my analysis, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please also add Ironman8848 in your following list. Many thanks in advance.
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTCUSD - H4 - H & S IN PROGRESS !This time the clouds did not hold ... An Head and Shoulder formation is in progress and if this is confirmed, the technical target would be @ 51'436. Therefore, price action over the coming hours will be, once again, very important to look at carefully. Indeed, only a clear recovery above the clouds (around 63'000, already mentioned in my previous analysis !) would neutralise this ongoing bearish mode. Intermediate support levels @ 56'525, 53'292 ahead of the 61.8% Fib ret @ 50'058 ( 39'590-66994 rally) RSI is again below 50. Looking briefly at the daily picture, after having failed to upside breakout the Tenkan-Sen, we can see a "BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN" triggered yesterday and in this time frame, in order, also to stabilise and neutralise, the ongoing downside risk, we need to see a daily closing above 61'700 which would, at least, trigger a piercing line ! On the downside, a daily closing below the Mid Bollinger Band (currently @ 59'000) would put an additionnal selling pressure and would open the door for the levels previously mentioned. Interesting to note that the 53'292-50'058 coincides with the daily support clouds area. On shorter time frame (H1), we are currently seeing a "corrective* recovery, having in focus 61'330, 61791 ahead of 62'253, the latter coinciding roughly with the secondary downtrend line resistance in this H1 time frame. should we go higher then the 63'000, as previously mentioned would be the pivot level to look at very carefully. Have a nice trading day. Take care Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4/H1 - MAGICAL CLOUDS !H4 : Once again the clouds acted perfectly well on both sid e, in rejecting, respectively a downside breakout attempt around 60'000 and more recently an upside breakout around 63'600. In addition, price action on the top of the clouds, triggered a "BEARISH ENGULFING" pattern. Ongoing downtrend channel still in place and clouds area should be seen as a barometer for further development. Indeed, IMPLICATIONS a clear breakout of : 1) UPSIDE : 63'000/63'500 (former congestion top) would open the door for ---> a retest of ATH 2) DOWNSIDE : 61'500/61'000 (MBB & KS cluster and clouds support zone) would put the focus on ---> former low @ 59'500 ahead of lower levels; 56'525 is the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 39'590-66'994 rally and 55'147 is the Kijun-Sen or base line ! H1 Price action switched from an uptrend channel to an ongoing downtrend channe l and this change has been triggered by a "doji" which has been confirmed straight away by a long black candle (bearish engulfing) Currently below both MBB and TS and flirting with the KS important support level in this H1 time frame. A failure to hold above 62'763 would directly put the focus on the 62'000 area, ahead 61'600 and 61'000 (the latter level being the bottom of the H1 clouds support zone. In order to neutralise this ongoing downside move price action, the BTCUSD should quickly recover above 63'000 and hold sustainably on a closing basis; this would temporary neutralise the current ongoing selling pressure. Do you like my analysis ? If yes, please do not forget, to like it and to add me on your following list :-) Many thanks in advance. Have a nice trading day and all the best- Take care Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - W1 - SHOOTING STAR - WARNING !Today we are going to look at different times frame from the medium to the short term (W1 - D1 - H4 - H1) W1 : Last weekly price action, triggered on a closing basis a "shooting star" which means a warning signal for a potential trend reversal Indeed, such kind of pattern should be considered as a negative point as this type of candlestick is formed when a "security" opened, advanced significantly, but then closed the period near the open level again. As mentioned, in my previous analysis (see related idea below), 2 scenarios could be seen and this week price action will tell us which one will take place... For the time being, low seen has been 59'505 D1 : The support trend line of the ongoing uptrend channel has been tested with an intraday low reached yesterday @ 59'505 Currently still above MBB @ 59'221 but below TS @ 62'965 On this D1 time frame I would suggest to look at 2 important levels, which are the following : UPSIDE : 63'000 DOWNSIDE : 59'000 A breakout of one of those 2 levels should trigger +/- a 3'000 points move, targeting respectively 66'000 (former highest D1 closing level on the upside and 56'000 on the downside (38.2% Fib ret) H4 : Clouds bottom, for the time being worked perfectly well as a support... Nevertheless, the ongoing recovery has nearly reached the 38.2% Fib ret (@ 62'365) of the last downside correction (66'994-59'505) , high seen so far 62'223 Looks like a lack of momentum ! Watch ongoing price action over the next coming hours. H1 : Clouds resistance broken... BUT !!! As mentioned on H4 analysis, the 38.2% Fib ret @ 62'365 has nearly been filled and do not forget, we are in a corrective price action move in a new bearish trend; therefore, you should watch carefully also at the price action seen over the coming hour (s) to detect early signal of a reversal. Watch the clouds which after having been a resistance area, becomes now as the new support zone (61'750-61'000) Interesting to note that the bottom of the clouds, roughly coincides with the cluster of MBB and TS !!! CONCLUSION :(ON SHORT TERM, INTRADAY BASIS) A FAILURE TO HOLD ON H1 ABOVE TS, CURRENTLY @ 61'400 SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE FIRST WARNING SIGNAL FOR FURTHER DOWNSIDE WHICH WOULD BE CONFIRMED BY A FAILURE TO HOLD AND STAY SUSTAINABLY ABOVE THE BOTTOM OF THE CLOUDS & CLUSTER (61'000-60'800) Have a nice week and all the best Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD - W1- WATCH ONGOING CLOSING !Today we are going to look at the weekly picture ! My expected upside target (68'000) has unfortunately not been reached, the highest level seen so far was 66'894. Potential double top formation in progress. In addition, the ongoing weekly closing and the shape of its candle will be very important for the future !!! Indeed, currently, the current price action is showing a "doji" (shooting star !!) is in progress and a confirmation given on a weekly closing would be the first warning signal for a potential trend reversal. IMPLICATIONS (2 scenarios) : 1) BULLISH : Small consolidation towards 58'000. then sideways price action between 58'000 and 67'000 then upside breakout for higher levels (projection towards 85'000 area) 2) BEARISH : Failure to sustainably hold above 60'000/58'000 and then downtrend (higher lows) towards firstly 56'525, 53'300 and the psychological 50'000 area, which roughly coincides with the primary weekly support trend line and which is also, by the way the current level of MBB !!! For indication, the 38.2% Fib ret of the 28'600-66'994 rally is at 52327 while the 50% is at 47'797 CONCLUSION : As usual, watch Daily picture and intraday time frames to get intermediate clues which will help you to validate or invalidate the scenarios above developped. On D1, the support on the ongoing upside channel is under attack and current level is under TS; a failure to hold above MBB, currently @ 58'720 would also be, on this time frame a first warning signal, calling for potential downside. On H4, currently inside the clouds support area, bottom zone being currently around 59'000 On H1, Currently below the clouds for a while in an ongoing downtrend price action; a move above 62'000/63'500 (above the clouds) would temporary neutralise the ongoing selling pressure. Do you like my analysis ? If yes, please, do not forget : 1) To like it 2) To add Ironman8848 on your following list (it it is not done yet :-) Have a nice Sunday and take care. All the best Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - INTRADAY WATCH 62'945 /60'745 W1 : Last weekly closing level @ 61'538 could be seen at first degree as a positive signal for further upside. Nevertheless, the resistance line of the ongoing primary uptrend channel has not been broken yet and in addition the BTCUSD is currently traded around the secondary uptrend support line (three white soldiers support line !) A failure to hold above 58'100 on the next weekly closing basis, would be the first signal of a trend reversal. D1 : Currently in an ongoing uptrend channel. Levels to watch are 65'000-57'000 on a broad approach. Indeed, 65'000 coincides with the ATH while 57'000 is the current level of TS (conversion line) Watch price action on the Lagging line and on others technical indicators, such as RSI, which for the time being is showing some lack of momentum, in moving sideways with a very little upside bias ! H4 : Warning ! Potential double top formation in progress Trigger level @ 58'935 If confirmed and activated, target @ 55'000 (H4 clouds support zone) H1 Currently in a slightly downtrend channel 62'600-59'000 Watch very short term cluster support @ 60'745 A failure to stay and hold above this level would put the focus to the support level of this H1 ongoing downtrend channel around the 59'000 area CONCLUSION & IMPLICATIONS : Short term (intraday) : Above 62'945 ---> bullish for ATH Below 60'745 ----> bearish for 59'000 Medium term (daily & weekly) Above 65'000 ----> 68'000 (Fib ext) Below 59'000 -----> 57'000 (TS) ahead of 53'870 (MBB Do you like my analysis ? Do not forget to firstly , like it and secondly you can also add me on your following list. Many thanks in advance All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - WEEKLY - THREE WHITE SOLDIERS !Good morning to all of you. Today we are going to look closely at the weekly picture in drawing several trading zones : I : BREAKOUT TRADING ZONES II : BULLISH ZONE III : SUPPORT ZONE BREAKING ZONES : In looking at the last three weeks price action, a " Three white soldiers" pattern has been identified and each weekly closing level confirmed an upside breakout BULLISH ZONE : Current weekly closing will give an important indication about further development. Indeed, a weekly closing above 59'600/60'000 would be the first signal of an upside continuation move , calling for 62'250 ahead of the 65'000 area, former ATH SUPPORT ZONE : A failure to hold, on a weekly closing, above 59'600/60'000 would trigger a renewal selling pressure and would open the door for the 55'000 area as an intermediate first support target (former congestion zone) ahead of the 52'000 area (September former tops) Below the Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) is currently @ 51'260 CONCLUSION : While a " Three white soldiers" should be seen and considered as a strong reversal signal, it is usually followed by a consolidation phase and this should be closely monitored in watching upcoming price action on shorter time frames (Daily and intraday !!) In acting accordingly you will be able to detect early warning and early signal (s) of a potential trend reversal. Watch also technical indicators, such as RSI to also detect divergence (s)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1