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Ironman8848

BTCUSD - H4 - BEARISH DIVERGENCE (to be confirmed) !High volatility and "rock and roll"... seen over the last 8 hours... Mid Bollinger, leading support indicator, worked once again perfectly well on a closing level basis :-) Last H4 candle on a closing basis triggered firstly a long white bullish candle..but secondly also triggered a second RSI bearish divergences, calling for a greater caution. In addition, a potential double top formation is also in progress ! Therefore, ongoing price action over the coming hours should be watch, as usual, very carefully in screening scrupulously shorter time frames to detect validation or invalidation of a reversal. Watch also closely the Lagging line ! Good luck and have a great week All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
NQ1 - D1 - 50% FIB RET FILLED @ 14883Volatility seen yesterday inside the triangle pattern; indeed after having been under selling pressure, test of the triangle support line, which finally hold and trigger a nice rebound, in breaking on the upside in reaching a high so far of 14'905, filling on its way up the 50% Fibonacci retracenent @ 14'883 of the former leg down from 15'399 to 14'367. The ETCUSD is also facing its first significant resistance (Tenkan-Sen & conversion line) which coincides with the bottom of the daily clouds resistance too...Watch also the lagging line, which, for the time being, managed to recover above the clouds. Slightly above there is the 61.8% Fib ret ƒ 15'005 ahead of MBB @ 15'065 (good leading indicator, as already mentioned on many occasions in my technical analysis) CONCLUSION : Watch, on a daily closing basis the following levels : ON THE UPSIDE : 15'065 ON THE DOWNSIDE : 14'750 And last but not least, monitor closely shorter time frames... Ironman8848
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H4/H1 - INDECISIONGood morning, today we are going to look at the H4 and H1 time frames which are both showing some growing uncertainty about further development. Indeed, I mentioned in my previous analysis to look carefully at the 48'000 as a barometer indicator and looking at recent and current price action we can note, so far, some lack of momentum to clearly confirm a breakout of the level above mentioned. In addition, on H4, a RSI bearish divergence has already been triggered which pushed, slighlty down the BTC towards KS and clouds support zone which hold for the time being. Please note that the recent low (47613) also, coincides with the new minor support trend line (in green on H4) So, on H4 : on the downside , watch carefully the cluster support area (47'947-47'768) as a failure to hold above this zone would open the door for the clouds zone with its bottom line currently around 46'000 ! on the upside , watch former high 48834 and check RSI which will validate (convergence) or invalide (divergence) further upside !!! and on H1 : watch the cluster (48'000-48'225) on a closing basis ! failure to close above 48'225 and hold in a sustainable manner, would put some short term selling pressure, opening the door first for the very thin cloud support area (fragile !!!) On the upside watch for a potential upside breakout of the ongoing slightly uptrend channel. Have a nice Sunday and all the best. Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - WATCH CLUSTER @ 47'900 !Good morning, today we are going to look at the daily picture which yesterday, on a closing basis, triggered a bullish engulfing pattern. Indeed, as mentioned in my previous analysis (see related ideas below) I highlighted, the importance of the clouds support zone on this D1 time frame and you can see the confirmation on the chart. Clouds once again worked perfectly well, this time as a support zone which triggered this recovery seen yesterday. So what next ? Despite this nice yesterday's move, BTCUSD remains under the influence of this long bearish black candle of Sept 7th with a very strong resistance area (cluster around 47'900 which should be clearly broken on a daily closing). As long as this cluster is not broken, the pressure remains on the downside, we are currently facing a minor resistance which was the former congestion bottom seen over a couple days at the end of August. IMPLICATIONS : 1) On the upside, a sustainable move above the cluster of 47'900 should be seen as a first warning signal which would neutralise the ongoing downside risk and open the door first for the psychological 50'000 level ahead of former high @ 52'956 2) On the downside, a failure to stay and hold above 46'000 on a closing basis would trigger a dark cloud clover and put the focus once again on the daily top clouds support area, currently @ 45'000 CONCLUSION : Watch shorter time frames : On H4, currently trying to breakout the clouds resistance area and on H1 there is a bearish divergence which has been confirmed; on H1 watch at 46'900 ahead of 46'700 (MBB) of a warning confirmation for a reversal calling potentially for a return towards 46'250 and a failure to hold above this level would directly put the focus on the 45'000 area, daily target on the downside ! Have a great day and all the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - WATCH THE CLUSTER...H4 : Last candle closing @ 44'636 is the first warning signal which triggered, as expected and mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday, a "shy" pullback, which should be watch at very carefully and which will be crucial for further development. Indeed, a failure to recover above the ongoing support trend line (green line) and watch also RSI which broke down as well, will confirm further downside in the cards, calling probably for a retest of former lows (44'125 ahead of 42'900) where situation should be reassessed ! (double bottom ?) On the upside, a recovery above the support trend line, would temporary neutralise the downside risk but as long as BTC stay below the H4 cluster (currently 45'508-45772), the selling pressure will remain. The MBB worked, once again, very well, breakouts attempts but...not confirmed ! A breakout of the cluster resistance area would then put the focus on the next key pivot resistance area...which is once again the H4 clouds zone (46'900-48'000). Watch shorter time frames to detect early signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the two scenarios above mentioned. Have a nice day & week. All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - WATCH CLUSTER @ 45'800 !Good morning, today, we are going to look at the 4 hours time frame. Indeed, as you can see on this chart, the MBB worked perfectly well so far Therefore, I strongly suggest to look carefully at the cluster zone, currently around 45'800 (KJ and MBB) as for the time being, several upside breakouts attempts have been rejected by the Mid Bollinger Band which should be seen, once again as "THE LEADING INDICATOR" for further development. Price action seen over the last couple of hours is showing further downside in the cards and this will be confirmed by a clear breakout of the ongoing support trend line (green line) on a closing basis. A failure to stay above that line would accelerate the downside move (warning breakout, then pullback !!) towards the former low @ 44'125 ahead of Sept 7th low @ 42'900. A move towards the latter level would force to look at the next support zone, this time on a daily basis, and which is, once again, the clouds support zone, as mentioned in my previous analysis (see related ideas below). Have a nice Sunday, relax, take care and all the best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !Good Morning to all of you :-) Hope you are well today ? We are going to look at the daily time frame today. Indeed, following the bearish engulfing pattern triggered a couple of days ago (very long black candle) and the downside breakout of the cluster (TS, MBB and KS), the BTC attempted to recover without great success so far as you can see in this chart !!! More important, it did not achieved to retest the Kijun-Sen (former support level) which became now the first significant resistance level to look carefully at. So what next ? Well, looking at the last 3 days price action, I have to say that it is not very encouraging and that the ongoing downside move is likely to continue for a while in this D1 time frame. First significant support is at arount 43'000/42'900 which is the former low reached on Sept 7th and which also coincides with the top of the clouds support area. Globally I would recommand to look globally at the clouds zone as a very good support area indicator; in addition, the 50% Fib ret of the 28'600-52956 rally is @ 40'778, being currently, roughly in the middle of the clouds support area. CONCLUSION : D1 GLOBAL PICTURE REMAINS BEARISH, SHOWING A SELL ON RALLY STRATEGICALLY ; ANY TACTICAL LONG EXPOSURE TRIGGERED BY SIGNAL (S) IN SHORTER TIME FRAMES SHOULD BE MANAGED WITH DISCIPLINE IN PUTTING IN PLACE TIGHT TRAILING STOP LOSS !!!! Once again, if you find my analysis as an added value for your trading strategies, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow Ironman8848, please also add him on your following list. Many thanks in advance All the best, take care and have a wonderful weekend Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC - H4 - MBB --> LEADING INDICATOR !Today we are looking at the H4 time frame. The triangle formation I mentioned yesterday did not really worked ! Nevertheless, the 46'900 area worked, so far, perfectly well in rejecting the breakout attempt on the upside . We can see now a switch in price action, from a uptrend (green arrow) to a downtrend (red arrow) with a first pullback rejected by the new downtrend line resistance. So what next ? There are levels to look at very carefully in this 4 hours time frame, which are : 46'896 on the upside (MBB) 45'900 on the downside, former congestion support zone (very fragile !) A breakout of one of those levels in H4 closing basis will likely trigger another 1'000 points move, targeting respectively 47'928 on the upside and 45'000 area on the downside. CONCLUSION : Do not forget to screen very carefully shorter time frames to detect early signal (s), such as bullish divergences, to help you to act accordingly in putting in place tactical long exposure protected with a tight trailing stop loss !! Have a great trading day. If you like my analysis and you find it is added value for you, please do no forget to like it and if you do not follow me yet, please add Ironman8848 to your following list. Many thanks in advance :-) Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS - IMPLICATIONS +/- 3200 PTS !Good morning to all of you. Hope you are well today ? We are looking at the 4 hours chart where you can see a triangle formation in progress. Breakout levels to watch are the following : 46580 on the upside 45783 on the downside Breakout (confirmed) implications should trigger a +/- move of 3'200 points targeting respectively 49'780 on the upside and 42'580 on the downside. BTC is currently traded above Tenkan-Sen @ 45'911 but still below Kijun-Sen @ 47928 and Mid Bollinger Band @ 48'803, the latter level being also, by the way the bottom of the H4 clouds resistance area ! On the downside, a failure to hold inside of the triangle would trigger a downside acceleration move as you can see there is no really important and significant support to the South and a sustainable move below Tenkan-Sen would be the first signal for further downside continuation. As already mentioned several times, look carefully to the shorter time frames, starting from M5 to H1 to detect early signal of validation or invalidation, which will help you to act accordingly. CONCLUSION : A constructive move above 46'900 would neutralise the ongoing sideways price action and open the door for 47'928 while on the downside a failure to hold above 45'911 would then clear the way for further downside towards 45'500-45'000 If you find my analysis valuable for you, please do not forget to like it and add Ironman8848 on your following list if it has not already been done yet :-) As I told you I am on the final stage to open my website www.ironman8848.com and I will not miss to keep you all in touch about this. :-) Have a great day. Take care and all the best. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - MULTI TIME FRAMES - AT A GLANCEFirst of all, please apologize for my absence over the last couple of weeks ! I had some problems with my disease (cancer) but fortunately everything is now OK again and I am back in the market :-) Following the flash-crash seen yesterday where, as you know the BTC lost roughly 10'000 points in a very short period of time, I thought it was the good timing to globally review all time frames in starting from the Long Term view (Monthly) to the very short term view (Min 5). So let's go : M1 : The 61.8 % Fib Ret @ 51'030 has been filled with an intra-month high so far @ 52'956 Nothing to add for the time being, wait for monthly closing at the end of September ! W1 : Very interesting to look at the price action seen over the last couple of weeks around the Kijun-Sen @ 46'747; indeed, this level became, after having been broken on the upside the new support zone to look at and yesterday it has been broken on the downside again ! So, on a weekly basis, this level of 46'747 should be seen as the KEY PIVOT LEVEL , on this time frame. I would add that, in order to neutralise, the downside risk, the BTC should close on a weekly basis above the 48'800/49'300 area ! A failure to do it would put further selling pressure on the table. D1 : High volatility seen yesterday (High @ 52'956 and Low @ 42'900). LONG BLACK CANDLE --->> BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN --- >RSI bearish divergence . Mid Bollinger Band, Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen have been clearly broken on a daily closing basis !!! So what next ? Currently attempting to recover towards the first significant resistance level of 47'928 ahead of 48'848 ; in order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk, the BTC needs to recover and hold sustainably above the levels previously mentioned. On the downside, the daily clouds area should be seen as the main support level which roughly coincides with the former low reached yesterday @ 42'900 H4 : Clearly below the clouds and below the Kijun-Sen. We needs to see an upside move above 47'000 (which would trigger a bullish engulfing pattern !), in this 4 hours time frame to neutralise the bearish price action seen over the last 12 hours. Interesting to note that there is no bullish divergence detected so far... for the time being, it looks like it is a corrective move only in a new bear trend... H1 : Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band, currently trying to recover above the Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line), still, for the time being in corrective mode. M30 : Below the clouds and the Mid Bollinger Band. A Bullish divergence on RSI, coupled with a perfect doji pattern, triggered the ongoing recovery attempt. Watch carefully MBB to see if BTC will manage to recover and hold above it then watch at the clouds resistance for confirmation. M15 : Cluster of MBB and Kijun under a breakout attack but still below the clouds M5 : Top of the clouds resistance area rejected, for the time being an upside breakout. High so far @ 45'760, close to the 61.8% Fib ret @ 46'259of the last move from 47'386 to 44'436. CONCLUSION : WATCH AT THE FOLLOWING KEY LEVEL AREA WHICH IS @ 47'928 ON A DAILY BASIS and 46'747 ON A WEEKLY BASIS ! FOR THE TIME BEING ANY LONG TACTICAL EXPOSURE SHOULD BE COUPLED WITH A TIGHT TRAILING STOP LOSS Have a nice trading day, all the best, I am going to open my new website soon and I will keep you posted :-) Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
6
BTC - MULTI TIME FRAMES - AT A GLANCE - WATCH 46'747 / 43'353 !M1 : 50 % Fibonacci retracement (64'895-28'600) @ 46'747 filled intra month high of 46787 W1 : Kijun Sen @ 46'747 should be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL on this time frame !!! Indeed a weekly closing above this point would be the first significant signal calling for further upside towards the psychological 50'000 level ahead of 51'030 (61.8% Fib ret). On the downside watch at 43'353 (Mid Bollinger Band) as the first important support level. D1: As long as the 42'614 level hold, picture remains positive; it is likely, after the recent ra lly from 37'300, to assist to a consolidation phase with first support @ 42'614 and more important, the MBB currently @ 41'130 which should be seen in this time frame as the KEY PIVOT LEVEL as well. Interesting to not how well the Mid Bollinger Band worked well in the past. H4: As you can see on this chart, both the clouds and MBB worked perfectly well as a very important support zone; H1 : A new short term downtrend is taking place with, an it is not a secret, the clouds as the first support zone, currently between 45'500 and 44'800. The lagging line is still above the clouds too. M30 : Bottom of the clouds currently under attack, supported with a lagging line, still above the clouds too M15 : Currently in a downtrend mode, pullback attempt has been stopped by the clouds resistance zone in this time frame and the lagging line is below the clouds !!! M5 : The intraday low @ 45'425 triggered a RSI bullish divergence which pushed BTC to the upside towards a high of 46'236, 2 hours ago and it has been short lived as the BTC is again below the clouds and the lagging line is flirting also with the bottom of the clouds. C ONCLUSION : 2 very important levels to watch at very carefully : 46'747 and 43'353 on a weekly closing Have a nice trading day All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - Mid Bollinger Band under attack !H4 time frame is showing an ongoing bearish price action, putting now the Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 43'238 under attack. Therefore, MBB, should now be seen as the LEADING INDICATOR for the upcoming hours. Indeed, a failure to hold and stay sustainably above this important support level, would open the door for further downside, having in mind the next significant support and key pivot level @ 41'327. In addition, the bearish mood has been confirmed by a RSI bearish divergence on D1 ! Watch carefully at shorter time frames and especially at the clouds support zone, around 42'300/42'400 as a short term intraday indicator as a breakout of that support area would directly put the focus on KS @ 41'327 In order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk, the BTC should quickly recover and hold above TS or conversion line, currently @ 44'083. Have a nice day. All the best and take care. If you like my analysis, please do not hesitate to show it and if you do not follow me yet please do it as well. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
4
BTC- H4 - RISING WEDGE - TARGET 40'640 !Looking at the H4 time frame, a Rising Wedge pattern has been confirmed, opening the door for a technical target of 40'640 ! Additional support to this expected scenario will be given by a next H4 closing below TS, currently @ 43'803 Below next support to look at will be MBB @ 42725 ahead of KS @ 41'327 In the meantime, watch carefully upcoming development in the next couple of hours in screening very closely price action on H1 and shorter time frames which will help you to validate or invalidate the above scenario explained. Finally, today's closing level on a daily basis will also be important as on D1 there is a bearish divergence on RSI .... Have a nice end of the weekend and all the best. Take care. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - PRIMARY DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE BROKEN ... BUT !Good morning to all my followers and others as well :-) Today, we are going to carefully looking at the daily time frame where for the first time the primary downtrend line resistance has been broken on a daily closing ! This should be seen as a positive signal but should also be considered cautiously for the time being !!! Why ? 1) There are potential bearish divergences in progress on several indicators; 2) Lagging line has not broken the clouds resistance zone and is still in the clouds (neutral); 3) There is also a potential double top in progress. Therefore, following the breakout above mentioned, it will not be surprising to see a pullback price action toward the former downtrend resistance line, currently around 40'500; interesting to note that this level also coincides with the TS or conversion line @ 40'630 . Today's closing level should already give some additional clues for the upcoming session (s). Watch also carefully price action on shorter time frames which are already showing bearish divergences... Should my expectation be wrong, next resistance level to look at will be on a weekly basis at : 1) 43'813 (MBB) - intraday high so far 43'960 2) 46'747 (KS) ONLY A WEEKLY CLOSING ABOVE 46'747 WOULD NEUTRALISE THE ONGOING DOWNSIDE RISK IN OPENING THE DOOR FOR FURTHER UPSIDE TOWARDS 50'000 AND HIGHER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE HH @ 64'895 If you find my analysis value added for you please do not forget to like it and if you do not follow me yet, please, also add Ironman8848 in your following list. Many thanks in advance. Have a great weekend, have fun and take care, all the best and may your long goes up and your short goes down :-) Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - MULTI TIME FRAMES AT A GLANCE - REVERSAL ?M1: Strategic target unchanged @ 27'169 W1 : The last 2 weeks price action is encouraging; indeed, the bullish engulfing pattern identified 1 week ago has been confirmed by a long white bullish candle. Nevertheless, on one hand, the BTC remains under the weekly downtrend resistance line (currently @ 43645) and on the other hand also below KS (@46'747) and only a clear breakout of the latter level would confirm a strategic trend reversal calling for higher levels towards the 50'000 psychological and round level ! On the downside, in W1, watch 35'600 as the next support level. D1 : Following the upside breakout of the clouds which took place three days ago, we can see a natural pullback price action; important to note the yesterday's closing level @ 39'839 which was below the opening level of the long white candle which triggered the clouds breakout !!! That should be seen as a first warning of a bull trap. Daily clouds zone should now be seen, with Tenkan Sen as the first significant support area for further development. H4 : Technical target of the double top, mentioned in my previous analysis @ 39'386 has been filled (intraday low @ 39'217), A doji bottom triggered a recovery which has been stopped for the time being by the KS. We can see a new downtrend picture from the former top @ 42'614. Watch 40'473 ahead of the cluster 40'850/40'900 as first resistance area. A failure to recover above those levels would open the door for the H4 clouds support area 38'500-36'000 H1 : Recovery price action which should be seen as a corrective move only, no bullish divergence detected ! M30 : KS works perfectly well in rejecting the attempting to go higher M15 : Clouds worked also well as a resistance zone for the time being M5 : Following the clouds breakout, a quick recovery took place towards an intraday high of 40'224 ; it has been short lived and BTC is again below MBB, KS and TS CONCLUSION: As already mentioned several times, watch carefully all time frames from M5 to H4, in order to detect intermediate information which will validate or invalidate, technical views expressed on D1, W1 and M1 Have a nice week and all the best my friends. Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - TRIPLE RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCES !!!Hello to everybody, today we are going to look at the 4 hours time frame which is showing a TRIPLE RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCES, coupled with a double top formation in progress with its trigger level @ 41'000. Therefore, I would strongly suggest to watch carefully a the 41'000 area ahead of 40'705 (MMB); indeed, a breakout and a failure to quickly recover above the area above mentioned would first of all : 1) Activate the double top pattern, in opening the door for a target of 39'386 2) Failure to hold and stay above MBB (40'705) and a following breakout of KS (40'473) would be the signal confirmation of a trend reversal, calling for further downside towards the H4 clouds support area 38'300-35'000 (38.2% Fib Ret @ 37'528) In case of an opposite move to the upside, we, now need to see a clear breakout of the former highs (42'411 & 42'614) potential double top previously mentioned, to neutralized the ongoing downside risk. Targets on the upside would be : 1) 42'894 2) 44'800 3) 47'095 Have a nice Sunday afternoon. Here in Switzerland it is the National Holiday (1st August) :-) All the best to all of you and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - D1/H4 - 38.2 % FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT @ 42'894 !D1 : Yesterday's price action triggered for the first time a closing level above the clouds with an intraday high @ 42'411, not far away of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 42'894, which is the next significant resistance level after 40'000. So what next, now ? Despite this sharp recovery since over the last couple of days from a low below 30'000, the BTC remains, for the time being, still in a broad downtrend, meaning still below the Daily downtrend line resistance (in red on the chart); interesting to note that this important resistance level coincides roughly with the level of the 38.2% Fib ret above mentioned !!! Looking at the RSI indicator which is currently above the 70.00 (72.36), it looks a little bit tired... today's and upcoming price action should be watch at very carefully. H4 : This time frame is showing a rising wedge pattern in progress, couple with a RSI double bearish divergence which already triggered a downside correction. Watch 40'371-40'234 as first support area ahead of 39'560 (KS) and rising wedge support line; a failure to stay and hold sustainably above 39'500 would confirm a top in place in opening the door for lower levels towards the H4 clouds support zone, currently around 37'300-35'000) On the upside, a breakout of the former high @ 42'411 would directly put the focus on 42'894 ahead of 47'095 Watch also Chikou (lagging span) on D1, currently in the middle of the clouds (41'705) as an upside breakout of the clouds would also give more support for further upside. Finally, watch also shorter time frames to get intermediate signal (s) which will allow you to detect early signs of trend reversals and last but not least watch the clouds and Mid Bollinger Band on each time frame you are looking at :-) Have a nice weekend. And if you find my analysis as a good added value for you, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please add Ironman8848 on your following list. Take care and have fun. Best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - W1 - LAST WEEK PRICE ACTION TRIGGERED A BULLISH ENGULFING Good morning friends ! Today, we are looking to the weekly time frame on which, last week price action triggered a bullish engulfing pattern. In addition, W1 closing (@ 35428) was above an important resistance level (34'970) already mentioned in my previous analysis which may force to a view reassessment of the situation, depending of the followup ! Nevertheless, as you know, any breakout should always been confirmed and as we look at a weekly chart, a lot of things could happen until the next weekly closing... We also can see a breakout of the former downtrend line resistance and not surprising, the level of the breakout coincides roughly with the level of TS at around 34'970. Therefore, this former resistance level (34970) became now the new support level to watch at very carefully !!!! Indeed, I would warn about potential "mirror effect) following this sharp upside move seen over the last couple of hours; a failure to stay and hold above 34'970 would confirm a potential "bull trap". Looking on the upside, firstly, 40'000 should again be seen as "THE PSYCHOLOGICAL" resistance to break ahead of the 38.2% Fib ret @ 42'465; above, the next significant level of 44'435 ( MBB ) and finally KS (46'747) which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 64895-28600 downside move. CONCLUSION : Watch carefully at the shorter time frame to detect potential bearish divergences which could be the first signal (s) of a reversal price action or upside trend continuation. Watch also daily clouds (very thick currently) ! BTC needs to clearly move above the clouds, which should also be confirmed by an upside breakout of the Chikou (lagging span) too.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - RISING WEDGE IN PROGRESSThis evening we are looking at the H4 time frame which is showing a rising wedge formation in progress. Current price action is attempting to pullback towards the downside breakout of this rising wedge formation. Therefore, watch carefully at the next H4 closing which will give more indication about the validation or invalidation of the rising wedge trigger level. A failure to reenter in this rising wedge pattern would open the door for lower level towards the 33'380 area which coincides roughly with 2 important new support levels, which are : 1) former downtrend resistance line , currently @ 33450 which became a new support level 2) Mid Bollinger Band (MBB), currently @ 33'407 and below the most important support level in this time frame @ 33'144 (KS) CONCLUSION : No change in my expected bearish scenario ! The recovery went higher than initially expected but as already mentioned, the clouds resistance zone in the daily time frame will be a very difficult area to break Have a nice end of the weekend and a wonderful upcoming trading week. All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - STILL BELOW KS @ 32960 !Today we are looking at 2 time frames : D1 and H4 D1 : BTC reached an intraday high so far @ 32'930 still below the first significant resistance level (32960 /KS) on D1 and also currently still below MBB @ 32724. No change in my view , watch carefully 32'960 and 31237 on daily closing level. As mentioned, a breakout of one of those level would open the door, respectively : on the upside, towards the very thick clouds resistance area (33650-44000 !!!) on the downside, focus will be towards the 30'000 level and lower. My strategic target remains @ 27'169 H4 : For the time being the top of the clouds rejected two breakout attempts; potential double top in progress !!! Interesting to note that the top of the clouds coincides roughly with the level of KS on D1 and therefore, price action over the current and coming H4 period (s) should be watch at very carefully. Have a nice trading day and all the best. May your long goes up and your short goes down :-) Take care Last but not least, if you like my analysis and you find that it bring you an added value on your trading strategies, please like my ideas and for those who did not follow me yet do not forget to add Ironman8848 on your following list. Many thanks in advance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
7
BTC - D1 - FAILURE TO CLOSE ABOVE KS @ 32960 !Today, we are going to look at the daily time frame and especially at the yesterday's price action which has been very interesting. Indeed, KS (32'960) worked, once again perfectly well as the important resistance level to break coupled with the failure, to also breakout on the upside the MBB (32'822). In addition, the downtrend channel is still intact. Therefore, today's closing will be very important and closing levels to watch at are the following : ON THE UPSIDE : 32'960. (KS) ON THE DOWNSIDE : 31237 (TS) A sustainable move either above 32'960 or below 31'237 would open the door for the following targets : ON THE UPSIDE : BOTTOM OF THE CLOUDS AROUND 33'700 (IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY VERY THICK WHICH MEANS VERY DIFFICULT TO BREAK ON THE UPSIDE !!! ON THE DOWNSIDE : FOCUS WILL BE AGAIN ON THE FORMER LOWS (BELOW 30'000) WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE BOTTOM SUPPORT LINE OF THE ONGOING DOWNTREND CHANNEL. CONCLUSION . DOWNTREND STILL INTACT, RECOVERY WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH PROVIDED BETTER SELLING OPPORTUNITY CALLING FOR MY STRATEGIC TARGET OF 27'169
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - GLOBAL OVERVIEW M1 : Still in a broad bear trend. Monthly pivot level @ 34372 W1 : Same than M1, any recovery should still be seen as a corrective move only and not as a strategic trend reversal yet ! D1 : Clear downtrend channel in place, below TS,KS and MBB. Only a move above KS @ 32'960 would neutralise for a while the current downside selling pressure. First significant resistance level on that time frame is @ 31318 (TS) H4 : INTERESTING TO NOTE THE SHORT TERM RECOVERY FROM ITS LOW REACHED @ 29300 YESTERDAY TOWARDS A HIGH SO FAR OF 30'950, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE KS (30'868) AND 50% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (32242-29300) @ 30877. LOOKS LIKE A SELL ABOVE 30'800 AND TOWARDS 31'318 H1 : Clouds worked perfectly well as an important resistance level on this time frame. Watch carefully upcoming period (s) price action, which will validate or invalidate a potential upside clouds breakout. M30 : Above the clouds, looks a little bit tired... M15: Same than M30, watch TS (30'802) as very short term support level which will corroborate my H4 view above mentioned M5 : Potential very short term double top (30'950), trigger @ 30'655 CONCLUSION : No change in my bearish expected scenario, calling for my first strategic target @ 27'169, which is the 61.8% Fib ret (3850-64'895) BTC remains a SELL on rally and any tactical long exposure should be protected with a tight trailing stop loss in a very disciplinated Risk & Reward approach Have a nice trading day All the best and take care Last but not least, if you find my analysis as an added value for you, please do not forget to like my ideas and for those who do not follow me yet, please add Ironman8848 to your following list, Many thanks in advance. :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
3