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GOLD Price Surges as XAU/USD Breaks $2,000 ResistanceInvestors who believe in the value of gold are celebrating as the price of XAU/USD slowly rises to $2,025, hitting a 13-month high due to a general weakening of the US Dollar. This positive trend is driven by the market's uncertainty over the US central bank's aggressive rate hike policy and its response to hawkish Fed talks. Additionally, concerns over the reserve currency status of the US Dollar and low Treasury bond yields are contributing to the strengthening of the XAU/USD price. Furthermore, the recent successful break of the $2,000 key resistance level, which now serves as immediate support, has encouraged gold buyers. However, despite this positive outlook, the market remains cautious ahead of the release of top-tier US data concerning jobs and activities, which may impact the price of gold. Geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia and China could also pose a challenge for gold buyers. Despite these challenges, the XAU/USD bulls remain optimistic due to gold's traditional status as a safe haven and the broad weakness of the US Dollar.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
29
GBP/JPY:Vulnerable Below 164.0 Amid Positive UK Economic OutlookThe GBP/JPY pair is poised to experience further weakness below 164.00, despite a promising UK economic outlook. The sentiment among UK businesses has improved as political instability and inflationary pressures appear to be easing. However, any positive impact on Japan's inflation caused by external factors could cause problems for BoJ policymakers. The GBP/JPY cross is struggling to stay above the immediate support level of 164.00 during the Tokyo session, despite the Bank of England's (BoE) efforts to curb inflation through quantitative restrictions. BoE policymakers believe that the surge in February's inflation was a one-time occurrence, and that inflation will fall below 4% by the end of the year as energy costs decline. However, the robust economic outlook suggests otherwise. According to a report by Reuters on Tuesday, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said that most UK businesses expect sales to increase in the coming year, a positive development from late 2022, despite experiencing no sales growth in the past three months. The BCC also noted that "business sentiment improved as political turmoil and inflationary pressures showed some signs of easing" after a slump in business confidence in the latter half of 2022. Meanwhile, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill cautioned on Tuesday that inflation prospects still require careful consideration due to the potential persistence of domestically generated inflation. He also stated that "wage developments, particularly higher frequency indicators of current momentum, appear to be easing." On the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen remains subdued despite rising oil prices. While this could increase Japan's inflation, any contribution to inflation through external forces would create problems for Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers.
by FOREXN1
7
USD/JPY Bears Dominate as US Dollar Hovers Near 2-Month LowsThe bears appear to be in charge of the USD/JPY as the US Dollar lingers close to a 2-month low. The market's focus now shifts to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls jobs data. The USD/JPY has dropped in Tokyo, reflecting the US Dollar's continued weakness. The pair is currently trading at around 131.50 and has fallen from its earlier high of 131.73 to a low of 131.30. The US Dollar remains under pressure, hovering near its two-month lows, as a result of several concerning data releases from the United States. These developments have reduced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, which now seems to be approaching the end of its monetary tightening cycle. Overnight data shows that labor market conditions may finally be easing, with job openings, a key labor demand indicator, down by 632,000 to 9.9 million on the final day of February. Furthermore, US factory orders have declined for the second consecutive month, falling by 0.7% in February after a 2.1% decline in January, following a 1.7% increase in December. This data follows the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s report yesterday that its Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.3 last month, the worst level since May 2020, from 47.7 in February.
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD Price Shows Upside Potential Amid Pennant FormationBased on current analysis, it appears that the price of gold is showing some uncertainty as it moves within a pattern known as a "pennant". Despite this, there is still potential for the price to increase, as there are risks that could push it up. In order for this to happen, the price would need to break above a downward trendline at the price of $2,000, confirming the breakout from the pennant pattern. If this occurs, the price could potentially rise towards the important $2,000 level, with further resistance levels at $2,010 and $2,060. On the other hand, if the price falls below a support level at $1,950, it could lead to increased selling pressure and potentially challenge the low price of $1,950 seen on Monday.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
29
USD/JPY Remains Depressed on Soft Data and Lower YieldsThe USD/JPY currency pair has declined to 132.20, continuing its retreat from a two-week high. The drop in US Treasury bond yields and softer data, as well as upbeat comments from Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, may be behind the recent losses. Kishida has pledged more investment to speed up private investment in green transformation bonds to promote domestic decarbonization. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields have dropped for the past four days to 3.42%, while the two-year counterpart has also declined for two consecutive days to 3.97%. Softer US PMIs and lack of inflation fears from the OPEC+ supply cuts and the resulting oil price run-up have weighed on yields. Furthermore, the downbeat Fed calls have also contributed to the decline in yields and USD/JPY prices. As a result, the USD/JPY may face downward pressure ahead of this week's key US jobs report.
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD: Delayed Move to 1.10 Due to OPEC+ Production CutThe EUR/USD pair was expected to surge past the 1.10 mark this week, as per economists' predictions. However, the recently announced production cut by OPEC+ has given the dollar a much-needed boost, causing a delay in the anticipated move to 1.10. While breaking above 1.10 is still a possibility, the OPEC+ cut has had a positive effect on the USD, making it necessary for some disappointing US data to come out before the EUR/USD can make the predicted move. This lack of Euro-specific drivers this week makes it unlikely to happen, though the bulls would still prefer the pair to finish the week around 1.0850/1.0900. If the US data does turn out to be strong and the Fed makes hawkish comments, the pair may test the supports at 1.0700 and 1.0600.
by FOREXN1
39
USD/JPY Rises Near Two-Week High Ahead of NFP ReportThe USD/JPY pair has surged to an intraday high near 133.50, close to the highest level in two weeks. The recent rise can be attributed to higher US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US dollar as the market anticipates the release of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The recent challenges to market sentiment, mainly from the OPEC+ group's inflation worries, have also boosted the pair's rally. However, mixed domestic data and pre-NFP jitters have challenged the recent buyer sentiment. The Bank of Japan's closely watched Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q1 2023 declined to 1.0 from the previous reading of 7.0 and an expected 3.0. Meanwhile, Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for March improved to 49.2 from 48.6, indicating a contraction in private manufacturing activities. On the other hand, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, fell to 4.6% YoY in February, below the market expectation of 4.7%. Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. The receding hawkish calls surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have also supported USD/JPY buyers. However, the market seems to have given little attention to the recent easing fears of a banking crisis and the Fed's hawkish moves. Currently, Japan's Nikkei 225 is up 1.0% intraday to 28,041, while the S&P 500 Futures snapped a three-day uptrend. The US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields are trading with mild gains near 3.52% and 4.11%, respectively, after paring the latest losses. Looking forward, USD/JPY is expected to continue its rebound amid firmer yields and a light calendar. However, any disappointment in the incoming PMIs and NFP may weigh on the US dollar prices, considering the receding hawkish bets on the Fed.
by FOREXN1
15
EUR/CAD: Possible Reversal MovementThere may be a potential reversal in the movements of EUR/CAD following the breaking of its dynamic trendline and testing the top at 1.4940. The negative correlation between EUR/CAD and EUR/USD suggests that an increase in EUR/USD and a decrease in EUR/CAD may occur. We are currently waiting for this to happen. Our indicator has already signaled a sell entry, which we have acted upon. There is a strong possibility of this trend continuing further.
by FOREXN1
10
GBP/JPY Rallies to One-Month High on Upbeat Sentiment and BrexitGBP/JPY continues its winning streak, with bulls pushing the pair to a new one-month high around 165.50. The positive sentiment driving the rally could be attributed to upbeat news on Brexit, with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announcing a £1.8billion boost as Britain signed up to the Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, the latest Japan inflation data released on Friday was lower than previous levels, with the Tokyo CPI at 3.3% in March, compared to the expected 2.7%. Despite this, the GBP/JPY remained strong, with yields reflecting the market's cautious mood ahead of top-tier inflation numbers from the US and UK. Other economic data from Japan showed growth in industrial production and retail trade, but a surprise jump in unemployment rate led to weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY). Meanwhile, Bank of Japan policymakers defended their easy money status, which contrasts with the hawkish rhetoric among Bank of England officials, supporting the GBP/JPY prices. Additionally, recent easing of market fears from banking turmoil and hopes of less severe rate hikes from key central banks have boosted the pair's momentum. The US 10-year Treasury bond yields remain pressured, while Wall Street closed positively for the third consecutive day, with S&P 500 Futures also printing mild gains. Looking ahead, the final reading of the UK's Q4 GDP will be crucial to watch for the intraday move. However, the headlines surrounding inflation data from Eurozone and the US, as well as central bankers' reactions, will attract major attention.
by FOREXN1
6
NZD/USD Climbs to Highest Level Since February 16The NZD/USD pair has climbed for two consecutive days and reached its highest level since February 16. The Kiwi, being sensitive to market risk, has benefited from the current risk-on environment, as the USD remains subdued. However, the bulls are wary and are looking for fresh impetus from the crucial US Core PCE Price Index. The NZD/USD pair has gained positive momentum for two successive days and touched a peak not seen since February 16. However, the pair has encountered resistance near the 0.6300 mark, and the spot prices are currently trading within the range of 0.6270-0.6275 during the early European session. The prevailing positive tone around equity markets has provided a significant boost to the risk-sensitive Kiwi, as investors' confidence is on the rise with the fears of a full-blown banking crisis diminishing. The hope for a robust economic recovery in China has added to the investors' optimism, and the official Chinese PMI data for March has shown the fastest growth in the services sector in 12 years. Though the growth in the manufacturing sector has slowed down, it is still higher than expected. The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path has made it difficult for the USD to gain any traction. This has further increased the appeal of the NZD/USD pair. The Fed had recently signaled that it might pause the rate-hiking cycle due to the banking sector's turmoil. However, with the possibility of a widespread banking crisis averted, there are speculations that the US central bank might return to its inflation-fighting rate hikes. Moreover, three Fed officials have backed the case for more rate increases to lower high levels of inflation. Despite the bullish sentiments for the NZD/USD pair, traders are hesitant to take aggressive bearish bets on the USD. They are waiting on the sidelines, anticipating the release of the US Core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. This data is expected to play a crucial role in influencing market expectations about the next policy move, and it could drive demand for the USD in the near term. This, in turn, will determine the direction of the next move for the major.
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/USD: US Inflation Gauge Signals Tightening Continues.According to the latest economic data, the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge suggests that the cumulative tightening measures are still curbing inflation. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment was worse than anticipated, but inflation expectations cooled. The GBP/USD Price Analysis shows that the Pound Sterling is trading with decent losses, with pressure from a resurgent US Dollar trimming its Thursday's losses. While inflation data could lead to a pivot in the Fed's policy stance, market participants are still buying the US Dollar as the week, month, and quarter-end approaches. As of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2331, and it would remain sideways around 1.2300-1.2400, or it could challenge the YTD high if it goes above 1.2400. Despite the lower US inflation, Fed officials remain resolute in their efforts to fight inflation. The US Department of Commerce's economic data revealed that the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE, increased by 4.6% YoY, below forecasts and last month's reading of 4.7%. The headline inflation was 5%, indicating that the Fed's cumulative tightening measures continue to keep inflation in check. The Fed Boston President Susan Collins welcomed the news but reiterated that there is still work to be done. The New York Fed President, John Williams, is expected to release newswires later. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's final March reading showed that the Consumer Sentiment was worse than expected at 62, but inflation expectations decreased. For the one-year horizon, the estimated inflation rate is 3.6%, while consumers estimate inflation to be 2.9% for the 5-year horizon. After the release of US inflation data, the GBP/USD initially traded around 1.2400 before dropping below the central pivot point at 1.2357 and extending its losses towards the 1.2340 area. However, the upward correction was capped at the former, and the GBP/USD resumed its downward trajectory, aiming for a test of the S1 pivot at 1.2320. On the UK front, the economy expanded by 0.1% in Q4 2022 and by 0.6% YoY, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.
by FOREXN1
21
EUR/USD:Anxious Investors Await Eurozone and US Inflation DataEUR/USD has gradually corrected towards the level of 1.0900, as investors have become anxious prior to the release of the Eurozone HICP and US PCE Price Index data. The Federal Reserve policymakers have continued to support rate hikes to counteract the persistently high US inflation. Additionally, the European Central Bank has announced plans for more rate hikes due to the expected continuation of Eurozone inflation resulting from a labor shortage. EUR/USD has formed a Double Top pattern, although it still requires further confirmation. The currency pair failed to exceed Thursday's high around 1.0926 during the early European session, which resulted in selling pressure as investors became cautious ahead of the release of the Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown signs of recovery and established a cushion above 102.10. As investors anticipate a rate hike during the May monetary policy meeting by the Federal Reserve (Fed), downside bets for the USD Index have been trimmed. The approach for May policy has changed rapidly due to the decreased fears of further losses in the US banking system, allowing for a continuation of policy-tightening measures by the Federal Reserve. Although the S&P500 futures generated gains in the Asian session, they have been halved now, as investors become increasingly anxious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation tool. However, the overall market sentiment is still bullish. The demand for US government bonds has decreased, as investors are disregarding the US banking collapse event. The 10-year US Treasury yields are unstable, hovering around 3.55%.
by FOREXN1
5
Key Support Level for USD/CAD Amid Strong Canadian GDP GrowthThe Canadian economy has rebounded sharply at the start of the new year. In fact, industry-level GDP surpassed market expectations, rising by 0.5% in January. Moreover, there was a broad-based growth in all sectors, leading to new projections of a 0.3% increase in GDP in February. Despite the positive news, the CAD has remained largely stable. This could be due to quarter-end rebalancing flows. However, the USD/CAD pair has shown a quick reversal from 1.38, suggesting that the data may have already been factored in by market participants. TD Securities predicts that the USD/CAD pair will find support at 1.35. However, if the US data disappoints in the coming weeks, this level could be seriously tested. It should be noted that the pair is still trading at a moderate premium. In conclusion, the Canadian economy has had a strong start to the year, and the positive trend is expected to continue. However, the USD/CAD pair remains vulnerable to changes in the US economic data.
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD:Price Rises on Weak USDollar and Easing Banking Crisis FearThe price of gold is fluctuating within a bullish chart pattern that has been in place for the past two weeks. Recently, there has been a lack of momentum, but the decrease in concerns regarding a banking crisis, along with a weaker US Dollar, has led to an increase in demand for gold. This, combined with hopes of positive core inflation data from the Eurozone and the United States, and tensions between China and the US, has propelled the XAU/USD bulls. During Friday's Asian session, the XAU/USD reached $1,980, reversing the previous week's losses ahead of key inflation data from both the United States and Eurozone. It is worth noting that despite concerns regarding further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the gold price is being driven by a risk-on mood and a lack of conviction in the Fed's stance. The weak performance of the US Dollar is also contributing to the rise in the gold price, even though the hawkish Fed concerns and mostly positive US data are challenging buyers of XAU/USD. The increase in the XAU/USD could also be linked to quarter-end positioning of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has been on a three-week downtrend, with bears pushing it to the 102.15 level. Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and three other Fed Officials backing further rate hikes, mixed US data has cast doubt on the hawkish rhetoric of Fed policymakers, thereby allowing the gold price to remain strong. This has been due to sluggish yields and hopes of a secure banking system. Mixed US data and a risk-on mood have failed to strengthen the US 10-year Treasury bond yields, which remain under pressure at around 3.55%, while the two-year counterpart is on track for its first weekly gain in four, currently grinding higher around 4.12%. Hence, sluggish yields, mixed data, and a mostly positive sentiment have combined to allow the gold price to remain strong.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
19
EUR/USD Reverses Gains as Greenback Strengthens Ahead Key DataEUR/USD Reverses Recent Gains as Greenback Gains Strength Ahead of Key Data Releases After four consecutive daily advances, the EUR/USD has given up some ground at the end of the week. The German docket's disappointing results, combined with renewed buying interest in the greenback, have contributed to the reversal of the recent multi-session upside. Despite this setback, the ECB's expected rate hikes in May are likely to lend support to the pair's upside momentum, especially as there is growing speculation that the Federal Reserve might decide to hold rates at its next gathering. The weekly uptrend in EUR/USD has encountered a formidable barrier around the monthly highs near 1.0930 on Friday. In Germany's domestic calendar, Retail Sales contracted 7.1% in the year to February, while the March jobs report showed the Unemployment Change increased by 16K persons, and the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 5.6%. Later in the session, flash inflation figures in the euro area will take center stage ahead of ECB Chairwoman C. Lagarde's speech. Meanwhile, in the US, all eyes are on the PCE inflation measurement, Personal Income/Spending, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Long
by FOREXN1
14
GBP/USD Aiming to Retest Two-Month HighThe GBP/USD currency pair is aiming to re-test its two-month high of 1.2448 during the Asian session, as market sentiment remains optimistic. Despite expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining a steady monetary policy, the Cable is attracting bullish bets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently defending the 102.20 support level, as the receding fears of the United States banking crisis have opened the possibility of a continuation of the policy-tightening spell by the Fed. Investors are anticipating the release of the core US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (Feb) data, which is expected to remain steady at 4.7% annually. Meanwhile, the prices of goods and services have accelerated by 0.4%, lower than the former expansion of 0.6%, causing the USD Index to exhibit unpredictable movements above the 102.20 support level. The BoE's monetary outlook has varying opinions, which will likely cause the Pound Sterling to be volatile. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining an unchanged monetary policy in May has fallen below 50%.
Long
by FOREXN1
7
GBP/USD Targets 1.2400 Region Despite Softening ToneThe GBP/USD pair is expected to continue its upward trend with the next noteworthy target at the 1.2400 region. In our analysis yesterday, we noted that despite the recent gains, there was no significant increase in the upward momentum. However, we also mentioned that there was still some room for GBP to rise to 1.2370 before the possibility of a pullback arose. GBP did reach a high of 1.2362 during London trade before experiencing a slight decline to finish the day at 1.2314 (-0.22%). While the underlying tone has softened somewhat, any expected decrease is likely to be part of a 1.2270/1.2340 range, and a clear break below 1.2270 is deemed improbable.
Long
by FOREXN1
7
EUR/USD: Pushing to 1.0900Today, market analysts will be closely observing the preliminary inflation readings for March in Germany and Spain. The first readings of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are in the spotlight. The German figures are expected to garner greater interest, with a projected deceleration from 8.7% to 7.3% in the headline rate. The Spanish numbers have recently triggered some market fluctuations, and experts predict a flat core rate of 7.6%, but a significant deceleration in headline inflation from 6.0% to 3.7%. As the European Central Bank remains explicitly data-dependent, despite an implicit hawkish bias, this week's inflation figures are likely to significantly influence the market's rate expectations.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD:Pullback Support Area For a New LONG Setup The ECB's leadership in the "tightening race" allows us to expect a continued EUR/USD rally within the upward channel in the near future. The minimum target is the March high of 1.091, followed by a retest to the area of 1.10, where there was strong resistance to the sharp improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop in the United States at the beginning of February: Risks to the Core PCE for March, the Fed's key measure of inflation, have shifted downward; risky assets have responded with additional gains, while the dollar has reached new lows. A weak Core PCE will make it much easier for EUR/USD buyers to increase their position. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March was 104.2 points higher than expected (forecast 101 points). The monthly change in US real estate prices was 0.2%, with the Case-Shiller price index increasing 2.5% year on year. Overall, the data point to a modest increase in optimism in the US stock market in the near term.
Long
by FOREXN1
23
GOLD Prices Decline on First Citizens Bank's Acquisition of SVB The pace of the pullback in gold prices has intensified following the announcement that First Citizens Bank has acquired Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The rise in US Treasury yields and reduced demand from India are adding further downward pressure on the price of gold. Despite the current uptrend, a double TOP formation is posing a threat with the neckline at a key level of $1,934. As of writing, XAU/USD is trading in the $1,950s, down by over 1.0% for the day. The ease in bank stress has lessened gold's safe-haven appeal, while rising US Treasury bond yields and a robust US dollar, along with reports of declining demand from India, have further exacerbated the decline in prices. The announcement of the acquisition of defunct lender Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens Bancshares Inc, the holding company of North-Carolina-based First Citizens Bank, has brought temporary relief to the markets on March 27, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. According to a press release from the FDIC, First Citizens has acquired all of SVB's $119B deposits and loans and has purchased $72B of its assets at a $16.5B discount. Although the deal has limited the damage caused by SVB's failure, it has not eliminated it entirely, with the bank's collapse estimated to have cost the FDIC $20B.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
10
EUR/USD Pair Expected to Rise Towards 1.10, Says ING EconomistsAccording to the latest updates, the Euro (EUR) has traded above the 1.08 mark against the US Dollar (USD). ING, a prominent economic institution, predicts that the EUR/USD pair will steadily rise and reach the 1.10 level. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) governing council, reinforced her hawkish stance during a recent statement. Schnabel emphasized the inclusion of a reference in the March ECB statement, highlighting the possibility of hiking. This assertion likely contributed to a further increase in the market rate expectations in the eurozone. The positive outlook for the EUR/USD pair is expected to continue due to the ECB's hawkish narrative and a stable European banking situation. ING predicts that this bullish momentum will likely help the pair to reach the 1.10 mark in the near future, although some bumps along the way are highly probable.
Long
by FOREXN1
7