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Isoforex

The USD/JPY currency pair is expected to continue its upward..The USD/JPY currency pair is expected to continue its upward trend above 137.00 as the Bank of Japan maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy. The USD/JPY currency pair is currently experiencing reduced volatility around 136.65, following a period of heightened volatility due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to maintain an ultra-easy monetary policy. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has implemented this policy in response to the lack of inflationary pressure caused by stagnant domestic demand and wages in the Japanese economy.
Long
by FOREXN1
2
EUR/USD risks a gradual decline to 1.0485 – UOBUOB Group's Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang believe that EUR/USD may decline further in the coming weeks and could reach the 1.0485 level. Key Quotes: In the 24-hour view, the EUR was expected to weaken further, but the major support level at 1.0485 was unlikely to be broken. Another support level at 1.0530 was identified, and the EUR dipped to 1.0523 before trading sideways for the rest of the sessions. The EUR is now in a consolidation phase and is likely to trade within a range of 1.0520 to 1.0575 today. In the next 1-3 weeks, there is not much to add to yesterday's update, as downward momentum has improved since Tuesday's sharp drop. However, as long as the EUR does not move above 1.0630, it is likely to trend lower towards 1.0485, with strong resistance at 1.0650.
Short
by FOREXN1
30
GOLD: Waiting for The Non-Farm Payrolls - SHORTThe XAU/USD remains in a defensive position above the $1,800 mark ahead of the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls report. The Gold price forecast suggests that market players are cautious and waiting for more clues before taking any significant action. The hawkish bias of the Federal Reserve, as well as the recent inversion of the US Treasury bond yield curve, are keeping the XAU/USD bears hopeful. However, the absence of any major surprises and the cautious market sentiment could limit any significant moves in the gold market for now. All eyes are now on the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to have a significant impact on the gold price in the short term.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
12
NZD/USD:Declines towards 0.61 as US Biden wants tax riches More!The NZD/USD pair is facing downward pressure and is currently approaching the round-level support of 0.6100. This is due to US President Joe Biden's recent proposal to increase corporation tax from 21% to 28%, as well as implementing a 25% billionaire tax and levies on rich investors. These measures are expected to contract fiscal policy and restrict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from further increasing. The proposal has also put pressure on the S&P500 futures, which are currently showing losses in the Asian session. The USD Index is expected to resume its upside journey, hovering above 105.20 due to the higher taxes proposal. This week, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be in the spotlight, with a consensus of fresh 203K payrolls added in February. Investors will also be paying attention to the Average Hourly Earnings data, which is expected to increase to 4.8% on an annual basis. China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is also on investors' radar, with a forecasted decline to 1.9% from the prior release of 2.1% on an annual basis. The monthly CPI is likely to trim to 0.2% from the former release of 0.8%. If inflation continues to decrease, it might force China's administration and the people's Bank of China (PBoC) to infuse more liquidity into the economy. This could benefit New Zealand, one of China's leading trading partners, and bring more business for the New Zealand Dollar. In the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair failed to recapture the critical resistance of 0.6120. This could be due to the proposal of higher taxes from US Biden, as well as rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed's actions, combined with the fiscal policy measures, might have a synergic impact on US inflation, leading to a decrease in consumer spending.
Short
by FOREXN1
7
AUD/USD:Bears eye 0.6540 support on downbeat China inflation....The AUD/USD bears are setting their sights on the support level of 0.6540 as a result of the recent downbeat inflation numbers from China and the tax proposal put forth by US President Biden. These factors have contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding the currency pair, with investors closely monitoring any further developments that may impact its trajectory. The pair is seeing a downtrend, hitting intraday lows due to weaker inflation numbers from China, which is a significant trade partner for Australia. Additionally, hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve and President Biden's budget proposal are contributing to the downside pressure on the pair, which is considered a risk-barometer. The latest Chinese Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index came in below market expectations, with the former dropping to 1.0% YoY and the latter declining to -1.4% YoY in February. The risk-off mood in the market and the divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy biases are also contributing to the bearish sentiment. The market's outlook remains uncertain as US data and other risk catalysts can offer immediate directions ahead of the all-important NFP. Investors are waiting for more details to predict Friday's top-tier employment data, which could influence the AUD/USD pair's movement.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD: Price May Continue To Fall Down—Short ContinuationAs described yesterday, EUR/USD is dropped inside the bearish channel after the breakout of the bearish flag and retests the 50% FIBO Area following the main trend. The ISOFOREX Indicator continues to be in a downtrend, and we are looking for a bearish continuation. Follows some fundamental news in accord with our forecast. The Powell-led EUR/USD drop yesterday means that the next key support for the pair is now 1.0500. This level could be broken in the next two days, economists at ING report. Euro has not got many weapons to fight the Dollar strengthening at the moment “The Euro hasn’t got many weapons to fight the Dollar strengthening at the moment. The Eurozone’s data calendar lacks market-moving releases and a speech by Lagarde today does not seem to have much to do with monetary policy. Two of the most dovish ECB members – Ignazio Visco and Fabio Panetta – are the other scheduled speakers today, so expect little support to the Euro on that front.” “Today and tomorrow will offer the best opportunity – in our view – to press below 1.0500, while we favour a EUR/USD rebound on a softer US jobs report on Friday.”
Short
by FOREXN1
15
AUD/USD:Price May Continue to Drop More After First Take ProfitsUOB Group's Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang believe that the AUD/USD may experience further declines in the coming weeks. In the short term, they expected the AUD to weaken but were surprised when it dropped significantly lower than anticipated. They predict that the AUD may drop to 0.6550 before stabilizing, and any rebound is likely to stay below 0.6665. Looking ahead, they had previously expected the AUD to trade within a range of 0.6695 and 0.6820. However, if the AUD were to break and stay below 0.6695, it would indicate weakness in the currency. Unfortunately, the AUD has already dropped below several strong support levels and hit a low of 0.6580. Although they expect the AUD to weaken further, they believe that the decline will be slower and major support at 0.6500 may not be reached anytime soon. The downside risk remains as long as the AUD remains below the "strong resistance" level of 0.6700 over the next few days.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
GBP/USD: Price Fall After Breakout Neckline Double TOP - SHORTHey there! So, let me break down what's been happening with the GBP/USD pair in a more friendly way. Basically, the exchange rate had a big drop and hit a low point near 1.1825, which was pretty scary for investors. This was partly because the head of the Federal Reserve, Mr. Powell, made some comments about interest rates that worried people. Since then, things have been a bit up and down. The GBP/USD pair has been trading around 1.1825 in Asia, but there's still a risk that it could go down more. This is partly because there's some important information coming out about how many people in the US are employed, and that could make the currency markets more volatile. Investors have also been selling their shares in the S&P500, which is a big index that tracks the US stock market. This is partly because people are worried that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates too much, which could hurt the economy. As a result, the US Dollar has been getting stronger compared to other currencies. Overall, it's been a bit of a tough time for investors in the currency markets. Mr. Powell's comments made people feel more cautious, and the GBP/USD pair has been going down since then. But, we'll have to wait and see what happens with the employment data and other economic indicators before we can say for sure where things are headed.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD: Price Continue To falling as Predicted Yesterday. SHORTAs we described yesterday, the price had a pullback on the 50% Fibonacci area in confluence with the resistance zones inside a bearish flag and bearish channel. Our previous signal from Isoforex about a new British trend seems to work as a manual, and our idea is about a short continuation. Follows some fundamental news. EUR/USD climbed to its highest level in nearly two weeks at 1.0700 on Monday. But the pair could edge lower toward 1.06 today, in the view of economists at ING. European hawks in focus “Helping EUR/USD yesterday were comments from ECB ultra hawk, Robert Holzmann, that the ECB should deliver four more 50 bps rate hikes. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane tried to calm things down by suggesting the ECB should not go onto autopilot after what should be a 50 bps hike this month. But the market is more sensitive to the hawks given the sticky inflation data.” “We do not see any ECB speakers scheduled today. Powell's testimony should dominate today and might nudge EUR/USD back to the lower end of the 1.0600-1.0700 range.”
Short
by FOREXN1
11
GOLD: Price Rebound on 61.8% FIBO AB=CD As PredictYesterday.Hey there! So, it looks like the price of gold has gone down a bit after reaching a three-week high. This might be because people are feeling cautious about upcoming events and data, and also because United States Treasury bond yields have gone up again. There are a few things that could impact the price of gold in the coming days, like some news from China and what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has to say in his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Some people think his comments might be a little negative for gold prices, but others are feeling hopeful because the US dollar hasn't been doing great lately and some recent US data has been a bit mixed. All in all, it's a bit of a mixed bag! As we described yesterday, the price could have a rebound on the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci level for a new short setup, and this is what happened. A possible AB=CD pattern may cause a continuation of the short setup that we have started from the SELL signals of the ISOFOREX indicator. We are looking for a bearish trajectory
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
12
USD/CAD: BUY Signals in Uptrend Continuation For a LONG SetupHi there! This week is going to be important for the USD/CAD exchange rate, with several key events in the spotlight. The Bank of Canada Rate Decision, Nonfarm Payrolls, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony are all going to be closely watched. So far, USD/CAD is up 0.11%, with a low of 1.3581 and a high of 1.3628. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold the overnight rate at 4.50% on Wednesday, and analysts think that the statement will note robust job growth but also acknowledge that inflation is still coming down. Investors will be paying close attention to Powell's testimony and the jobs report to get a sense of how much the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. The US Dollar index is down 0.2%, and there's a 76% chance of a 25 basis point increase at the Fed's meeting on March 22. Powell will likely indicate that more tightening is needed, but analysts expect him to be vague about the terminal rate. The Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show growth moderating to 220k, but leading indicators suggest that labor market conditions are still tight. Overall, what Powell says and what the jobs report shows will be crucial for the direction of the US Dollar. The FOMC blackout period will begin on March 11, so the Fed still has the option to guide the markets after the jobs report.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
AUD/USD:Breakout Neckline H&S And SHORT Continuation....Hello Traders! So, the Australian dollar (AUD) has gone down after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made a decision about interest rates. However, Antje Praefcke, an FX Analyst at Commerzbank, thinks we should be careful about assuming that this means the end of interest rate hikes in Australia. Basically, the RBA still seems to be planning to raise interest rates further, but they're going to be looking at economic data before they make any more decisions. The market reacted to the RBA's statement by selling AUD, but it's not necessarily a sign that the interest rate cycle is over. Like in other countries, some prices are going down (like energy prices) but others (like services and wages) are still going up. So, the market is going to be paying close attention to economic data to see what the RBA will do next.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD:Eurozone Retail Sales decline 2.3% YoY vs. 1.9% expected So, the latest data released by Eurostat shows that the Eurozone's Retail Sales in February were not as good as expected. Year-on-year, there was a decline of 2.3%, which was worse than the 1.9% decline that was anticipated. Month-on-month, there was an increase of only 0.3%, compared to the expected 1.0%. However, this was still an improvement from the previous month's decline of 1.6%. This information may have an impact on the value of the Euro in foreign exchange markets. Generally, if the retail sector is doing well and consumer spending is increasing, this can have a positive effect on the economy, which can lead to an increase in the value of the Euro. Conversely, if the retail sector is struggling, it can have a negative effect on the economy, which can lead to a decrease in the value of the Euro. So, in short, the latest Eurozone Retail Sales data shows that there has been a decline in sales, which may not be great news for the Euro. The price is still inside a bearish channel where the value had a previous pullback on the 50% Fibonacci area inside a flag pattern. We are looking for a new short push-down continuation following our previous sell signals from Isoforex.
Short
by FOREXN1
38
USD/CAD: Consolidation Before a New Bullish Impulse. LONGThe USD/CAD is still bullish, and in the last few sessions, the price, after making a double bottom on the support area (green rectangle), has been trying to make a new bullish impulse to the resistance area around 1.39000 but actually, the price is still in a consolidation setup, and usually, this kind of situation gives the possibility for the Value to explode in one direction. Our forecast remains long, after we get the signal from the ISOFOREX indicator.
Long
by FOREXN1
9
GBP/USD expected to trade within 1.1925-1.2120 – UOBAccording to UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang, GBP/USD is expected to trade between 1.1925 and 1.2120 in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectations for GBP to weaken further were incorrect as it rebounded to a high of 1.2049. While upward momentum has not improved much with the rebound, GBP could edge higher to 1.2070. The next resistance at 1.2120 is not expected to come under threat. On the downside, a breach of 1.1985 (minor support is at 1.2005) would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (03 Mar, spot at 1.1985), we indicated that while downward momentum is beginning to build, GBP has to break 1.1900 before a sustained decline is likely. We added, ‘the chance of GBP breaking 1.1900 will remain intact as long as 1.2045 is not breached within the next few days’. GBP rose to a high of 1.2049 in NY trade. The breach of our ‘strong resistance’ indicates that downward momentum has faded. To look at it another way, instead of heading lower, GBP is likely to continue to consolidate, expected to be between 1.1925 and 1.2120.”
Short
by FOREXN1
7
USD/CAD is holding at support as the focus remains on the Fed.As the week draws to a close in Asia, USD/CAD has remained steady with its price hovering around 1.3580, just below its daily high of 1.3601. On Thursday, the US Dollar strengthened following the release of Unemployment Claims data, which indicated a robust US labor market. Consequently, the yield on two-year Treasury notes, which are sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose to levels not seen since July 2007. Futures inched higher, with the market predicting a peak rate of 5.493% in fed funds by September, before easing slightly later in the session to 5.447%. Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stating on Thursday that the Fed is prepared to continue raising rates if inflation doesn't slow. Bostic also mentioned that the Fed is still considering how recent inflation data, which was stronger than expected, might shape their policy. According to Bostic, the impact of higher rates on the economy may only begin to "bite" in earnest this spring, which supports the argument for the Fed to stick with "steady" quarter-point rate increases.
Long
by FOREXN1
34
GOLD: Price approach Resistance $1850 Price May ReboundThis week, Gold price bulls have made a comeback, causing the precious metal to break out of a bearish trend that dominated its value in February. What's even more impressive is that Gold has been able to rally despite the strengthening of US Treasury bond yields, which typically benefits the US Dollar and puts pressure on commodities that don't yield interest. News from China that their PMI data for both Manufacturing and Services sectors is strong has boosted Gold demand since China is a significant market for the yellow metal. Gold traders are eagerly anticipating clues from the Federal Reserve, which could come from speeches made by Fed officials and the upcoming ISM Services PMI report on Friday. Investors are closely watching the US 10-year Treasury bond yield market, which rose above the crucial 4% resistance level on Wednesday and has remained above it. If yields remain high, the usual inverse correlation of Gold price with US Treasury yields could put downward pressure on XAU/USD. However, a retracement in the bond market could push the precious metal higher. On Friday, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will publish the Services PMI report at 15 GMT, and market participants will be watching the Prices Paid Index component closely. If this report confirms that wage costs are rising and causing prices to accelerate, the US Dollar is likely to remain steady against Gold. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in at least two more 25 basis points Federal Reserve rate hikes in March and May. Moreover, the probability of the Fed keeping the policy rate unchanged in June is 25%. The market turnaround has confirmed that the US Dollar doesn't have much room to rise, at least until the February jobs report and inflation data confirm or refute another 25-bps hike in June.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
23
EUR/USD:Euro at risk of significant losses — CommerzbankFurther appreciation potential for EUR/USD is likely to be limited for now, in the view of economists at Commerzbank. ECB rate expectations have gone far “The market expects interest rates to peak at just under 4%. In our view, current market expectations are already quite aggressive. A large share of the upside risks for inflation that emerged over the past weeks is likely to be priced into the rate outlook already, which limits the Euro’s future appreciation potential.” “In view of stubbornly high underlying inflation momentum dovish resistance within the ECB might prevent a sufficient tightening of monetary policy, in particular if core inflation tends downwards over the course of next year. If signs indicating this increase, the Euro would be at risk of recording significant losses.” – Commerzbank
Short
by FOREXN1
6