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EUR/USD: The price continues to fall as pessimism grows. The EUR/USD sustains the pessimism seen at the start of the week and trades slightly on the defensive on Tuesday, despite the greenback's minor recovery, as US markets resume normal activity following Monday's holiday. There is no new information on the macro scenario for the pair, which continues to monitor developments/messages from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve when it comes to the future interest rate decisions, particularly beyond the approaching March events. EUR/USD loses traction amid the modest rise in the greenback on Tuesday, as the release of major results from fundamentals on both sides of the Atlantic is set to take center stage. Meanwhile, market activity around the European currency should continue to closely track dollar dynamics, as well as the ECB's likely next actions as the bank has already forecasted another 50 basis point rate hike at the March event. Returning to the eurozone, recession fears appear to be fading, but they remain a key driver of the single currency's ongoing recovery as well as the ECB's hawkish narrative.
Short
by FOREXN1
31
GOLD:Price continue To Drop - Bearish Continuation.When risk aversion joins the return of full markets to support the US Dollar, the gold price (XAU/USD) falls approaching the previous weekly low, also the lowest since late December. Upbeat US Treasury bond yields may be supporting the greenback while impacting on the XAU/USD. But, geopolitical concerns about China and Russia appear to be driving the newest push toward risk avoidance. With the good US data, there is renewed anxiety about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish move. Yet, the cautious mood ahead of the preliminary readings of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February appears to be a threat to the Gold price. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting on Wednesday are also noteworthy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
22
The XAU/USD pair falls below $1,840 as geopolitical worries.In the Asian session, the gold price (XAU/USD) fell to about $1,837.90 after providing a negative break of the consolidation built in a limited range of around $1,844.00. The precious metal has been provided amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, as well as North Korean missile launches within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Investors should brace themselves for extreme volatility, as the US financial markets will be closed on Monday owing to Presidents' Day. Nevertheless, S&P500 futures have fallen further amid increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its tight policy stance, indicating a decline in the risk-aversion theme.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
22
EUR/USD:FOMC minutes required to see a break towards 1.05 – INGOn Friday, the EUR/USD recovered from a low of 1.0613. ING economists feel that a hawkish set of FOMC minutes is required to push the pair below 1.05. This week's focus is on PMIs. "The Eurozone's focus this week will be on business confidence, as measured by PMIs and the German Ifo. The PMI results are expected to linger around 50, and the market may pay closer attention to the Chinese February PMI readings, which will be released later next week." "The Dollar rise may have gone far enough for the time being, as EUR/USD found decent demand ahead of 1.06. It will almost certainly need a hawkish set of FOMC minutes on Wednesday for EUR/USD to break towards 1.05, where we expect robust demand ahead of a EUR/USD surge in the second quarter."
Short
by FOREXN1
12
BITCOIN: Trend is your friend.Bitcoin's technical indicators support the newly formed bullish narrative. Traders should keep a watch on Bitcoin because an upsurge and volatility are likely. Bitcoin's price may rise once more. Bitcoin is trading in a range after gaining 5% on January 17. According to the Binance exchange API, the 5% uptick saw the most Bitcoin transactions this year, with $495,000 transactions taking place during the uptick. The rise came just one day after the bears forged a 3% loss, which also happened to be the highest volume day at the time, with around $450,000 in transactions. On January 17, the bearish candle was virtually totally reversed as the bulls closed above the previous day's opening price of $24,569. A new surge higher into the weekly closing for BTC price coincides with questions about the motivations of high-volume Bitcoin exchange dealers. Bitcoin hit $25,000 for the third time on Feb. 19 as the crucial weekly close loomed.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOREXN1
3
USD/CAD: Short Momentum, price will grow. ✅USD/CAD reverses Friday's corrective decline from a 1.5-month high, rising 0.08% intraday near 1.3490 during the five-day rally to early Monday. The Loonie pair's recent advances could be attributed to lower prices for Canada's primary export item, WTI Crude Oil, as well as the market's risk-off mindset, which supports US Dollar demand. It should be noted, however, that the vacation in the United States and Canada limits immediate swings in the currency during a sluggish Asian session. WTI crude oil, on the other hand, prints a six-day downtrend near $76.50 as the US Dollar strengthens alongside an increase in US crude oil stockpiles and mounting fears of quicker Fed rate hikes. In other news, Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Fumio Kishida has called for an emergency United Nations (UN) Security Council meeting in response to North Korea's firing of two ballistic missiles towards Tokyo, both of which landed outside Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). On the same vein, the failure of the most recent meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China's top diplomat Wang Yi to reestablish US-China relations. The explanation could be linked to comments made by a Chinese envoy that the US must alter course and repair the harm done to Sino-US relations by indiscriminate use of force. On the same topic, US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield stated on Sunday that China would cross a "red line" if it opted to supply Russia with lethal military aid for its invasion of Ukraine. Concerning central banks, better-than-expected readings of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales, together with previously reported upbeat readings of employment and output data, aided the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials in remaining hawkish. On the other hand, Bank of Canada (BoC) policymakers indicated a willingness to delay rate hikes due to the negative repercussions for the economy. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures show minor losses, despite Wall Street finishing neutral. It's worth mentioning that in the last week, US 10-year Treasury bond rates surged to their highest levels since early November, assisting the DXY to print a three-week rise. Moving on, a light schedule and off in the US and Canada may limit quick swings ahead of the BoC CPI on Tuesday and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. If Fed policymakers stay hawkish and Canada's inflation rate decreases, the USD/CAD could rise further.
Long
by FOREXN1
8
GOLD:Price continue to Drop As Predicted. SHORT continuationAs positive economic data from the United States pushes up the US dollar, the price of gold (XAU/USD) remains subdued. Market analysts predict that gold may face additional pressure if the US dollar continues to strengthen. Despite a brief uptick in the price of gold earlier in the day, the precious metal quickly returned to its downward trajectory. The US dollar, buoyed by strong retail sales and industrial production numbers, has kept gold prices in check. The economic data suggests that the US economy is rebounding strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic, bolstering the greenback. Market analysts believe that gold prices may continue to suffer in the short-term as investors flock to the US dollar, which is viewed as a safe-haven asset. However, in the long-term, gold prices may rebound as inflation concerns mount and investors look to hedge against rising prices. In summary, the price of gold remains under pressure as the US dollar gains strength on the back of upbeat economic data. While the short-term outlook for gold remains muted, there may be opportunities for investors to capitalize on potential long-term gains.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
34
EUR/USD:The direction of travel is 1.0450/1.0500 area – INGEUR/USD closed below 1.0700 on Thursday. Economists at ING believe that the pair could plummet to the 1.0450/1.0500 zone. Temporary downside to EUR/USD “The two-year EUR/USD swap differential has widened back out to levels last seen in mid-December. This now stands at -150 bps having narrowed to -110 bps at the start of this month. Arguably this spread should not narrow in too much more (unless the market thinks that Fed Funds will end the year near 5.50%), meaning that EUR/USD may not have to fall too much more. We would, however, say the direction of travel is to the 1.0450/1.0500 area, which may be the strongest Dollar level of the year for Eurozone corporates.” “There is not too much on the Eurozone calendar today apart from the December current account figure and the market seems to be ignoring yesterday's comments from ECB dove, Fabio Panetta, favouring the ECB to move in 25 bps rather than 50 bps increments.”
Short
by FOREXN1
16
TESLA: Fundamental Analysis + NEXT TargetAccording to reports, Tesla is about to recall more than 350,000 vehicles equipped with driver assistance software due to government concerns that the system could cause accidents. At first glance, the solution appears straightforward. However, it involves software that Musk described as "vital" to the company's survival last year. Of course, it could raise more questions about Tesla's autopilot systems. Investors have no reason to sell TSLA stock as a result of this news. However, this is something that will need to be closely monitored in the coming months. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a recall notice yesterday, stating that Tesla's self-driving software package "may allow the vehicle to behave unsafely at intersections," adding that the system "may not respond sufficiently to changes in posted speed limits or inadequately account for driver adjustments to speed the vehicle to exceed posted speed limits." In response, Tesla is voluntarily recalling the vehicles and intends to resolve the issue via an over-the-air (OTA) firmware update. The Model S, Model X, Model 3, and Model Y equipped with the Full-Self-Driving beta are affected by the recall. Despite the name "Full Self-Driving," it does not make a Tesla car fully autonomous, and the company has long faced questions about the system's marketing and how owners use it. The software has proven to be a profitable addition for Tesla: the option currently costs $15,000, or $199 per month in the United States. Tesla made no response to the NHTSA notice. Tesla has specified 18 warranty claims that are likely to be related to the circumstances described by NHTSA, and the company is not aware of any injuries or deaths related to those conditions, according to the notice. Surprisingly, Tesla stock barely reacted to the announcement, possibly due to the recall notice's relatively simple solution. Tesla, like many other automakers, conducts recalls to address a variety of issues. However, this does not mean that investors can rest easy and ignore the situation. Autopilot or Full Self-Driving technology is a key component of Tesla's case and the primary reason the company's valuation outperforms the rest of the industry. Musk stated in a 2022 interview that addressing full autonomous driving was "extremely important" for the company, stating that "it's really the difference between whether Tesla is worth a lot of money or not worth anything." The NHTSA said in a statement that it would continue to monitor the recall to ensure that Tesla's measures were effective, and that a broader investigation into Tesla's software systems remained open and active. Government officials expressed concern that the technology would force drivers to be less cautious than is necessary to ensure their safety. There's also a chance that Tesla will have to invest in new equipment to address the government's concerns, which could mean a refund or a costly upgrade for hundreds of thousands of cars already on the road whose owners have purchased the service. Some of the recall conditions, such as requiring Autopilot to limit the speed of Tesla vehicles to a predetermined limit, may make Autopilot less appealing to consumers. Nothing in this news suggests that Tesla is nearing the end of its life cycle. However, for the stock to reach the potential that some believe it has, the company must survive this period of government scrutiny. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest predicted in 2022 that Tesla stock could be worth $4,600 per share - more than 20 times its current price - by 2026, assuming robot cabs are in service by then. Even in Ark's worst-case scenario, in which Tesla's stock price is set at $2,900, autonomous revenue is expected to be around $50 billion by 2026. As the government takes action, Tesla is likely to spend more time tweaking existing systems and less time developing new ones, reducing the company's chances of meeting Ark's 2026 goal. As a result, Tesla's other initiatives, such as its cyber truck, are even more important for growth. Tesla investors do not need to get out of the way, but they should exercise caution given the challenges that lie ahead.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by FOREXN1
7
GOLD:Hits a monthly low amid high US Treasury bond yields.The gold price (XAU/USD) is still around $1,835 after posting the biggest daily drop in two weeks near the 1.5-month low. The yellow metal reflects the market's inaction on Thursday morning. Nonetheless, it remains on the bear's radar in the face of firmer US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar in the face of hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. Gold price falls as US data propels Treasury bond yields, US Dollar Despite recent inaction, the gold price remains on the bear's radar as upbeat US economic data underpins the hawkish bias surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next moves and fuels US Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar. Nonetheless, US retail sales increased by 3.0% year on year in January, compared to 1.8% expected and -1.1% previously. Furthermore, Retail Sales Excluding Autos increased by 2.3% in the same period, exceeding analysts' expectations of +0.8%. Similarly, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February rose to a three-month high of -5.8 from -18.0 expected and -32.9 market forecasts. Alternatively, the US Industrial Production marked 0.0% MoM figures for January, compared to analysts' estimates of 0.5% and -0.7% previous readings, but failed to counteract the Fed's (Fed) hawkish bias. In light of the data, US 10-year Treasury bond yields oscillate around a six-week high set the previous day, while bulls in the US Dollar Index (DXY) take a breather after reaching a 1.5-month high as key US data points to a further increase in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rates. However, market bets on the Fed's next moves, according to Reuters' FEDWATCH tool, suggest that US central bank rates will peak in July around 5.25%, versus the December Federal Reserve prediction of 5.10%. Geopolitical tensions and a light calendar are also weighing on the XAU/USD. Aside from the data-backed broad US Dollar strength, the lack of major catalysts, ongoing US-China tensions, and US political risks all put downward pressure on the gold price. The ongoing discussion about the balloon shooting and the story behind the US-China spying has recently soured the mood. Fears of a US debt-ceiling crisis, as warned by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday, may be along the same lines. There is nothing significant to watch for gold traders ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Moving on, gold traders can be entertained by second-tier US data on the housing market, industrial activity, and producer prices ahead of next week's Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. It's worth noting that the recent increase in Fed bets, combined with positive data, keeps XAU/USD bulls optimistic until then.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
27
EUR/USD:Week’s low in the 1.0656 region to offer support EUR/USD: Week’s low in the 1.0656 region to offer support – Rabobank In the month to date, the EUR has dropped 1.7% vs. the USD. Economists at Rabobank point out the key support level to watch. EUR will be more sensitive to bad economic news than to good “Given that the market had cut its long USD positions at the end of last year and into January, the risk of a higher peak for Fed funds is suggestive of the potential for further USD gains into the middle of the year.” “Given that the market is now positioned long of EURs, it will be more sensitive to bad economic news than to good.” “Supports will be offered by the week’s low in the EUR/USD 1.0656 region. Below this, the year-to-date low at 1.0484 is likely to offer strong support.”
Short
by FOREXN1
11
ETHEREUM: Price EXPLODE in the last Hours - $2000 TargetThis year has started off well for crypto investors, with many cryptocurrencies rising in value in recent weeks. After falling nearly 68% last year, Ethereum is now up more than 26% in 2023. This rise is encouraging for investors, implying that the worst-case scenario of this crypto-winter may be in the rearview mirror. Ethereum was recently priced at slightly less than $1,500 per token. However, many investors are optimistic about its prospects, and it is possible that it will rise above $2,000. Does this imply that now is a good time to buy? The cryptocurrency market remains largely speculative. Nobody knows what its future holds, or even if it will exist in a decade or two. So, when deciding where to invest, consider the cryptocurrency's long-term potential. Ethereum is currently one of the most promising cryptocurrency investments. It has a distinct set of benefits, which include: Ethereum was launched in 2015, years before competitors such as Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche. It contributed to it becoming one of the most widely used blockchains in the cryptocurrency industry. Ethereum is also the most popular network for decentralized applications (dApps), such as DeFi projects, NFT markets, and the metaverse. It is also an open-source blockchain, which means that developers can build new projects on it. If any of these projects succeed, Ethereum will only benefit. Ethereum can also host other cryptocurrencies on its network, and it is home to several well-known projects, including Shiba Inu, Polygon, The Sandbox, and Decentraland. If any cryptocurrency hosted on the Ethereum blockchain becomes successful, Ethereum will benefit. Ethereum, like any other investment, has drawbacks. For example, the network continues to struggle with slow transaction speeds and high fees, causing users to be dissatisfied. However, developers are working hard to improve the blockchain. The Merge, the long-awaited 2022 update, went off without a hitch, successfully transitioning Ethereum from a proof-of-work protocol to a proof-of-share protocol. In addition, an upcoming update, Shanghai, will aid in the mining process. Future Ethereum updates are also expected to improve efficiency and reduce fees, with the most significant of these scheduled for 2023 or 2024. The decision to invest in Ethereum now will be influenced by a number of factors, including your long-term prospects and risk tolerance. Again, all cryptocurrencies are still purely speculative at the moment, so despite Ethereum's advantages, there is no guarantee that the sector as a whole will thrive in the long run. However, if you believe in Ethereum's potential and are willing to take the risk, now is an excellent time to invest. However, before you invest, check your finances and your overall portfolio. Ethereum is no exception to the rule that cryptocurrencies are notoriously volatile. Don't invest anything you can't afford to lose, and make sure you're willing to keep your money invested for a long time. Also, expect more volatility in the short term. Additionally, ensure that the rest of your portfolio is well-diversified. This will help protect your savings in the event that your cryptocurrency investments fail. Ethereum can be an excellent long-term investment, but there are no guarantees in the world of cryptocurrencies. It will be easier to decide if this investment is right for you if you assess your risk tolerance.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by FOREXN1
6
BITCOIN: Explosive move liquidates $200 million positionBitcoin's price increased by 13% this week. The price of Ethereum followed BTC's lead and increased 11% in one week. This unexpected move caught roughly $200 million in trades off guard. Following the release of the US inflation figure on February 14, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) saw a massive increase in interest. Hotter-than-expected expectations were dashed, indicating that disinflation is the dominant story. It was a catalyst that sparked this explosive rally, when combined with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the February policy meeting. Even during Bitcoin's brief correction in the first week of February, altcoins were dominating this 2023 rally. There was a lot of money riding the altcoin wave, as evidenced by the performance of certain coins, which more than tripled in just a few days. Looking at the overall market, it appears that $200 million in positions were lost in the last 24 hours. According to February 15 liquidation data, $154 million in shorts and $14 million in longs were caught off guard.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOREXN1
7
USD/JPY: Next level to watch is 135.00 – UOBThe continuation of the upside bias could propel USD/JPY to the 135.00 region ahead of 135.50, comment Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We noted yesterday that ‘upward has firmed slightly’ and we expected USD to edge higher. However, we were of the view that ‘the major resistance at 134.00 is unlikely to come into view’. The anticipated USD strength exceeded our expectations as USD soared above 134.00 (high of 134.35) before pulling back. Despite the pullback, upward momentum is still strong and there is room for USD to rise above 134.35. However, the major resistance at 135.00 is likely out of reach today. Support is at 133.55, followed by 133.20.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Yesterday (14 Feb, spot at 132.90), we highlighted that ‘upward momentum appears to be building and there is room for USD to edge higher’. We added, ‘the major resistance at 134.00 might not come into view so soon’. While our view for USD to strengthen was correct, we did anticipate the rapid acceleration in pace as USD surged to a high of 134.35. Not surprisingly, upward momentum has improved further and USD is likely to continue to advance. The next level to watch is at 135.00, followed by 135.50. On the downside, a break of 132.40 (‘strong support’ level was at 131.40 yesterday) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”
Long
by FOREXN1
4
BITCOIN: eyeing in the ‘NEXT BIG MOVE’ Despite tepid January U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data, Bitcoin reclaimed a comfortable lead above $22,000. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was recently trading above $22,200, representing a more than 3% increase in the previous 24 hours. BTC had remained below $22,000 for the previous five days, as investor concerns about stablecoin regulation and U.S. central bank inflation-fighting measures grew. The CPI rose 0.5% in January, compared to 0.1% the previous month, in line with economist expectations. However, year-over-year inflation was higher than expected, coming in at 6.4%, compared to 6.5% in December and 6.2% predicted. Year-over-year core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, increased faster than expected, at 5.6% versus 5.5% expected and down from 5.7% a month earlier. The data suggested that the Federal Reserve would maintain its hawkish stance, with more interest rate hikes planned at upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. According to the CME FedWatch tool, approximately 90% of traders expect the FOMC to raise rates by 25 basis points in March. Investor reaction was erratic in the immediate aftermath of the CPI release, with bitcoin (BTC) initially falling on the news before quickly surging by $700 to trade as high as $22,300 before retreating slightly to its current level. "The market may be pricing in a little more Fed tightening, but that isn't weighing on cryptos today," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at foreign exchange market maker Oanda, wrote in a note on Tuesday. "Regulation and contagion risks have weighed on Bitcoin this month, potentially exhausting the downward move."
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOREXN1
26
EUR/USD:Slip back to 1.0650/1.0700 by the end of this week – INGEUR/USD remains primarily a Dollar story. Economists at ING believe that the pair could slide to the 1.0650/1.0700 area later this week. Lagarde’s speech may be a non-event “Despite having survived the US CPI risk event, we continue to see some downside risks in the near term on the back of raising bets on Fed tightening and a lack of drivers from the Euro side.” “We don’t think that today’s speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will drive major market moves.” “We see room for EUR/USD to slip back to 1.0650/1.0700 by the end of this week on the back of a strengthening Dollar.”
Short
by FOREXN1
5
GBP/USD drops to 1.2075 on downbeat UK inflationAs the UK inflation data disappoints, GBP/USD takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 1.2100, adding strength to the first daily loss in three days. Nonetheless, the UK Consumer Price Index fell 10.1% year on year in January, compared to 10.3% expected by the market and 10.5% previously. With this, headline inflation has fallen for the third consecutive month after reaching a 41-year high in October. More importantly, the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy items, fell to 5.8% year on year, down from 6.2% expected and 6.3% in previous readings. Given the mostly negative UK inflation figures, as well as the mixed jobs report from the previous day, the GBP/USD could fall further, as Bank of England (BoE) officials have recently highlighted the data dependency for further rate hikes. Furthermore, a separate Reuters survey of economists predicted no more than one rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) in March before the BoE initiates policy pivot calls. Because Fed policymakers are comparatively more hawkish despite recent soft US inflation, the GBP/USD could face additional downside pressure. Alternatively, the Financial Times (FT) reported that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt are open to a deal with workers that includes a lump sum payment by backdating next year's pay award. This follows previous attempts by UK firms to raise labor pay in order to support inflation and put a floor under the GBP/USD price. Despite an unimpressive US Consumer Price Index (CPI), hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) comments and a recovery in US Treasury bond yields appear to be exerting downward pressure on the Cable pair. Against this backdrop, US 10-year Treasury bond yields remain stable at around 3.75%, after rising three basis points (bps) the previous day to re-establish a six-week high, while the two-year counterpart follows suit by poking 4.62%, near 4.61% at the latest. However, the S&P 500 Futures fell half a percent, tracing Wall Street's losses and favoring the US Dollar's haven demand, allowing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to post its first daily gain in three days, up 0.27% intraday near 103.55 by press time. Following the initial market reaction to key UK data, GBP/USD traders should await US Retail Sales and Industrial Production details for January, as well as the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February, for clear direction. However, a few central bankers from the Fed and the BoE are scheduled to speak, which may entertain Cable traders ahead of Friday's UK Retail Sales.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
GOLD: Price Continues to Drop Also Today - SHORTGold price dropped yesterday to $1,850, its lowest level since early January. Soft United States Consumer Price Index could scale back hawkish Federal Reserve bets, allowing the yellow metal to rise, strategists at Commerzbank report. All eyes on the United States Consumer Price Index “The US inflation figures that are due to be published today could result in some price movement.” “Like our economists, the market expects the inflation rate in January to have fallen to 6.2%. If so, this would constitute the lowest increase in the CPI since October 2021. If the inflation rate turns out to be even lower, the market is likely to scale back its interest rate expectations again somewhat, allowing Gold to rise.”
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
21
EUR/USD: Possible Bearish Scenario Ahead.EUR/USD may slip back to 1.0650/1.0700 should core inflation come in at 0.4% or 0.5% MoM – ING So far, EUR/USD has advanced for the second session in a row, extending Monday's rebound past the 1.0700 level. The daily increase in the pair coincides with the continuation of selling pressure in the dollar ahead of the release of US inflation figures due later across the pond. Meanwhile, falling US yields across the curve are accompanying the daily retracement in spot, as are further range bound German 10-year Bund yields. Later in the day, another revision to Q4 GDP will be the region's only release on Tuesday. What to search for Following Monday's drop to the 1.0650 region, EUR/USD appears to have begun a decent bounce, though the resistance line around 1.0800 continues to cap occasional bullish attempts for the time being. Meanwhile, price action around the European currency should continue to closely track dollar dynamics, as well as the ECB's potential next moves after the central bank delivered a 50 basis point cut at its meeting last week. Returning to the eurozone, recession fears appear to be fading, but they remain an important driver of the single currency's ongoing recovery as well as the ECB's hawkish narrative. This week's key events in the eurozone include the ECOFIN meeting, EMU Flash Q4 GDP (Tuesday), EMU Balance of Trade, Industrial Production, and ECB Lagarde's speech (Wednesday). On the back burner: the continuation of the ECB's hiking cycle amid dwindling bets on a regional recession and still elevated inflation. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the region's growth prospects and inflation outlook. Inflationary risks are becoming entrenched.
Short
by FOREXN1
14