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AUD/CAD: Geopolitical Factors and Technical Signals at play Dear traders, Dive into the AUD/CAD realm with a blend of geopolitical insights and technical signals: Before we venture into any further downward potential, keep a close eye on the critical level around 0.8822 for potential breakthroughs. Here's the geopolitical and technical mix in our AUD/CAD analysis: Geopolitical Considerations: Wednesday's Bank of Canada interest rate decision sparks intrigue. The balance of power in this market may shift, reflecting the delicate dance of global influences. Canada's economy, tethered to oil prices, could witness changes spurred by escalating tensions in the Middle East. A surge in oil prices may bolster the CAD. Conversely, any disturbance in the Persian Gulf, a vital oil source for China, could ripple through Australia's economy, intertwined with China's fate. Geopolitical events, like the Hamas-Israel conflict, may reverberate, potentially impacting China, Taiwan, and, subsequently, the AUD. Technical Signals: The battleground of charts and indicators beckons. Before anticipating major moves, consider the technical landscape. The Bank of Canada's decision could sway the market sentiment, making the 0.8822 level a pivotal point. A breach could signal a shift in the technical dynamics. This amalgamation of geopolitical considerations and technical intricacies sets the stage for an engaging AUD/CAD landscape. Stay tuned, adapt to unfolding events, and trade with prudence! Best regards.
Short
by AliSignals
Buy This Bargain Before It's GoneIn early October 2023, we updated our previous forecast for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust for the current year. Its price, after a short-term breakthrough of the triangle pattern (marked as (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E)), returned above its lower border, and a new upward trend began despite the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the world, mainly due to the Hamas war against Israel. On the other hand, in mid-November, US inflation data was released, which demonstrated the effectiveness of the Fed's policy. So, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.2% for the 12 months ending in October, one of the lowest values in recent years. The sharp decline in this indicator was primarily due to a significant decrease in prices for both energy and used cars and trucks. Ultimately, these data triggered a short squeeze on government bonds, which had a positive impact on the stock market. Currently, on the daily timeframe (1D) of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, a gap has formed in the price range from $441 to $446, which, according to our estimates, will be closed in the next 1-2 weeks. On a more global scale Thanks to positive macroeconomic data released by government agencies in the US and European Union and lower oil prices in recent weeks, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in early 2024 has increased sharply. We believe that the decline in 2-year Treasury yield will continue in the near future, which will also support the continued momentum of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. Moreover, financial market participants should pay closer attention to changes in the yield curve, which is becoming increasingly important and one of the most accurate fundamental tools for predicting changes in sentiment on Wall Street. As soon as the 2-year Treasury rate approaches the 10-year Treasury rate, this will provoke investors and traders to exit long positions in bonds and more aggressively buy ETFs, shares of technology and pharmaceutical companies. Conclusion We believe the pace of the US economic recovery will continue to accelerate and expect the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust to reach $463-$464 by the end of 2024. Analyst’s Disclosure: This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
AMEX:SPYLong
by AisenQuantum
1
Gold - Fade a The Short Squeeze RallyThe marketing team behind gold and silver are always telling dumb and dead money that they should "hedge" against a "collapsing US Petrodollar" during times of global instability by being long on metals. The trade rarely works out. Gold and silver not only routinely follow the equities markets straight to Hell, but tend to get dumped during the start of new index impulse swings. This rally while the SPX gave up its 5% rally is actually a significant anomaly. But if the propaganda never, ever worked out, the propaganda would stop working and the marketing team would be out of a job. And that more or less sums up a 10% monthly rally on gold that's killed short sellers who wanted to comfortably ride a trend down. You can see on the monthly that this price action is just more ranging, more wick plays, and there's a notable unbalanced gap under $1,800. It's really important to keep a cool head as a goldbug, especially under the condition where the establishment media is reporting that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is long several hundred tonnes worth of gold. The CCP is collapsing and everything that is going on in the world has to do with the various members of the CCP around the world, who are not of the Chinese race, scrambling to bury their skeletons while also trying to ensure they can take control of the country when the regime falls. And because of that, there's no reason to believe that a CCP that is desperately selling US Treasuries (see: Santiago Capital) for USD is going to be allowed to go plussy plus greeny green on its deeply deep goldy gold position. What hangs over the head of everyone on this planet is the Party's 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million students and Disciples, a sin committed by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, that has even had the audacity to commit the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting. Keep your distance from and wash your hands from anything related to the CCP, including the western factions that have become a particle of the Party swearing Marxist vows in Shanghai. So, here's the trade. Doesn't matter if gold takes $2,015. It's not the right overall timing for a new rally to $2,200. Instead, either go short, or wait for gold to trade under $1,800 again. There's no reason to believe gold is a new bull market until longs have been ruthlessly violated. There's no reason to believe metals are going to rally as a hedge during an international war or a major equity sell off, or a major equity rally lol.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LordWrymouth
7
Tel Aviv Stock Exchange: 3 Falling Peaks into a 3 Line StrikeBeyond just the implications of the war, the technical setup on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange looks very Bearish as if it's ready to collapse to new lows, as it has confirmed 3 Falling Peaks and will confirm a 3 Line Strike on the Monthly Timeframe in just 14 hours. I expect that the exchange and all 15 of its Foreign and Domestic owners will be negatively affected in the process. Which mostly consist of Israeli Banks and Holdings Companies but also consist of Foreign banks such as UBS, BCS, HSBC, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch International, which is owned by Bank of America, to name a few.
TASE:TASEShort
by RizeSenpai
🔥 XAUUSD - The effect of WAR on the GOLD (READ THE CAPTION)By re-examining gold in the 12-hour time frame, we can see that the price on Friday was accompanied by heavy buying pressure with the announcement of Israel's ground attack on Gaza (Hamas) and considering that gold is a popular and low-risk asset in war conditions. It is considered to have created this amount of demand in the price! The important thing that happened on Friday was that the price attacked the top of the POC Line without any specific reaction to it and closed above this important level ! This important level was $1925 when we saw that the price broke this resistance with great strength and moved towards higher targets, But the important point is that according to my personal strategy, this flow can be given high credibility if the price can be stabilized in at least 1 to a maximum of 3 candles, which means that if the price moves below $1925 again in these 3 days and closes, probably we'll see the drop to $1885 as the first downward target! Pay attention that the most important condition for changing the Bearish to Bullish trend is to stabilize above $1925 and break the price of $1955, in which case we can expect the price to grow even up to $1976 and $2020 ! So this week is very important for gold and we have to monitor the behavior of the price! With the growth that the price had on Friday from 1868$ to 1932$, a large liquidity void has been created, and the probability that this FVG will be filled soon is high! All this will depend on the trading process on Monday and Tuesday! The important supply zone in front of the price is from $1929 to $1954 and we have to see if the price will be rejected from this zone or not, and to fill this gap we must see the consolidation of the price below $1925! I hope this comprehensive analysis will be useful for you! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
77
Best trade of the week? USDCAD or Oil? Will bearish bets on the Canadian dollar grow in the lead up to Wednesday? It is widely expected that the Canadian central bank will leave interest rates on hold during its meeting that concludes on this day (Although, it may be a hawkish hold as the Governor Tiff Macklem will mention that another hike is still on the table for the bank). Perhaps piling on the bearish sentiment is the slight fall in the price of oil (one of Canada's major exports), as US diplomatic efforts continue to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas. How long this quietish period can last is up for debate though, and a ground offensive by the IDF in Gaza could send oil prices higher. Bullish takes on the USD/CAD (i.e., bearish bets on the Loonie) will have 1.37350 to content with, which is the high the pair reached before cratering to 1.36712 to start the week. 1.36936 is the more immediate resistance for bull to cross before even thinking about the day's high. The RSI’s weakness suggests this won’t be too difficult though, and 1.37189 might be the more formidable resistance.
by BlackBull_Markets
CHF at Key Technical Support⏰CHF at key levels ⏰ Overview The Swiss Franc is at key technical support levels on several pairs. The CHF strength is driven by the Israel-Hamas war. The Details The support levels will likely not hold if there is further escalation in the region. Expect the support levels to break and ***CHF pairs to move lower. If by some miracle, the war becomes stagnant or things de-escalate, the support levels could hold. Things to consider Buying the CHF is painful due to Switzerland's low-interest rate. The swap rate offered by most brokers is off-putting. A better trade may be a de-escalation trade, though we could be waiting a while The Swiss Franc continues to downtrend longer-term. A de-escalation trade may catch a downside correction move rather than a long-term uptrend. The CHF could strengthen on global recession fears, possibly in the coming months.
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
$GOLD -Where to Next! (TP1 Hit / ~16.000 Pips) *Game-PlanTVC:GOLD On the previous Quarterly Idea released as a macro/investor POV for TVC:GOLD , a *3M(monthly) area was given as an entry point in terms of market structure. We received a great entry on a Quarterly Level *3M. Salute to everyone of you who took action upon it. Sure did the members of bingX copy-trade community. " Where 2 Next for TVC:GOLD !? " -Fundamentally speaking, safe-heaven assets the likes of Bonds TVC:US10Y , MIL:BTC and TVC:GOLD have sky-rocketed recently and they are on a very desirable highlight right now. So did Crude Oil ICEEUR:BRN1! due to 'WAR' break-out from Israeli Occupiers towards the People of Palestine. The on-going 'WAR' or better said, Ethnic Cleansing, must be observed on the following week(s) to come. Upcoming week (the last week of October) is packed with GDP Q3/2023 reports from various countries, (US,EURO-ZONE,UNITED KINGDOM, GERMANY, ITALY) - TA speaking, a pull back in TVC:GOLD in terms of price action to S/R resistance + Recent Demand area would be very beneficial for uptrend resumption, in order for the TVC:GOLD market to test buyers and sellers . This level should hold, otherwise Changing Character at 1.910$ would suggest price to behave on a more steeper fashion , headed on lower areas at 'alternative SL trail' *D Level or even down further South. This scenario would invalidate the recent uptrend of 10%+ in 10 days on $GOLD. *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea. Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
TVC:GOLD
by Mr_J__fx
💎 $GOLD : Correction to $1903 ? (READ THE CAPTION)By examining the gold chart in the daily time frame, we can see that based on our analysis, on Friday with the announcement of the NFP, the price attacked the level of $1810 to collect liquidity, and then it was accompanied by demand pressure (As we mentioned in the previous analysis, the price was in a demand range for several days) and with the war between Israel and Palestine, the market found its own excuse for further growth, And today, until this moment, it has managed to grow up to $1856 and hit its first upward target! As I said in the previous analysis, for the price to grow, gold must stabilize and close above $1830, which is exactly what happened on Friday! The important demand zone is from $1812 to $1829 and the important supply zones are $1858, $1880 to $1889, and finally $1903! Best Regards , Arman Shaban The Last and The Main TA : (Click on the picture to see more)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
87
$UVXY $120+ BUY CALLSUVXY is a volatility factor in the market. As political tensions rise high in the world, we are due for another market correction and overall world market corrections. USA of course is protecting its interest in the Middle East and as we can see, Israel-Palestine conflict is only getting started. This is a multi-decade war between Israel and Arab/Muslim states. However, this war is not going to be similar to previous, this will be final and deciding war in that region, after which, nothing will be left there and geographical borders will change. This is a political game because of all the resources hidden, particularly Oil, in the Middle East. I believe this time we will see a use of nuclear weapons. There will be de-stabilization in that region and rest of the world. UVXY will spike due to this. I'm not sure about my timing, but I see these tensions rising very high and markets staying volatile within near future. Please check out my other predictions as they are fairly accurate, I don't post a lot, but I think this time I might be right.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by toich312
1
Gold BUY Tensions RiseDear Ziilllaatrades, We'd like to discuss a potential chain of events where an invasion of Israel into Palestine could trigger Iran's involvement in the conflict, causing a rise in gold prices. Here's how this chain of events might unfold: 1. Invasion of Israel into Palestine: If Israel were to launch a large-scale military invasion into Palestinian territories, it would likely draw significant international attention and condemnation. This action would intensify tensions in the region and lead to a surge in violence, displacement of civilians, and potential casualties. 2. Iran's Involvement: Iran has been a long-standing supporter of Palestinian causes, particularly through its support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. If Israel's actions are perceived as a significant threat to Palestinian territories and civilians, Iran may feel compelled to intervene in the conflict to protect its interests and regional influence. Iran could provide financial, military, and logistical support to Palestinian factions, escalating the conflict and potentially involving Iranian military forces. 3. Escalation of Regional Tensions: The involvement of Iran in the conflict would escalate regional tensions and may lead to the activation of regional alliances and rivalries. Israel's allies, including the United States, may respond with increased military and diplomatic support. This could lead to a broader regional conflict, potentially involving other countries in the Middle East. 4. Market Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical instability and conflict in the Middle East tend to increase market uncertainty and risk aversion. Investors often turn to safe-haven assets like gold during times of geopolitical turmoil, as gold is traditionally seen as a store of value and a hedge against economic instability. The rising tensions in the Middle East, including the involvement of Iran, could lead to increased demand for gold, driving up its prices. 5. Impact on Gold Prices: As investors seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold, increased demand could cause gold prices to rise. The extent of the price increase would depend on the severity of the conflict, the duration of the crisis, and the global response to the situation. Gold prices can also be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic conditions, currency movements, and supply and demand dynamics. It's important to note that this scenario is hypothetical, and the actual outcome of any such conflict and its impact on gold prices would depend on a wide range of complex and dynamic factors. Geopolitical events can indeed influence commodity prices, including gold, but predicting the extent of that impact is challenging. Feel free to ask any questions, Greetings, Ziilllaatrades
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
ESLT - Elbit Systems - Interesting long-term perspective The weekly ElliotWave (EW) chart pattern on ESLT shows rather lucrative long-term potential. Besides that we may notice fine weekly cap-and-handle formation near all time highs 80780 area. Price shows relative strength to general TASE index (shown on the liner chart above) and I like how the volume and volatility subsides in the right handle area of the chart. If the price manages to break-out above 80780 pivot with rising volume, I would consider this constructive for any position/swing longs. In more granular view, with todays gap-up open with volume already approaching yesterdays highs, it is reasonable to consider opening initial position with tight staggered 3-5% stops, with an idea to add to position if price advances to and breaks-out from the long-term pivot point mentioned above Daily
TASE:ESLTLong
by artemfedorov
Fools Rushing In Or Angels' Crystal Ball?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 10/10 Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back (per Walmart's CEO)...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased last week. Is this Fools rushing in where Angels fear to tread or retail investors having some crystal ball into the future that institutions don't have access to? Only time can tell. However, our AI-driven models (since 2018 - not a "me too AI" bandwagon hopper) have negated the bearish bias, based on the last two sessions' price action and in line with what we have been publishing for the last week or so: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4379, 4357, 4343, 4322, or 4300 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4375, 4353, 4338, 4319, or 4297 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4307, and explicit short exits on a break above 4315. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom