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Middle East conflict up, oil up, gold up, defense stocks upWTI and Brent crude futures both jumped more than 4% to above $86 and $88 per barrel, respectively, on Monday, after a surprise attack by Hamas on Israel over the weekend. More than 900 Israelis have lost their lives, with 130 more held hostage, and nearly 700 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s retaliation. A truce is unlikely in the short term. Investors are wary of a wider conflict too. Gold jumped 1.45% to around $1,850 an ounce on Monday, adding to the 0.7% gain the metal made on Friday (as the Non-Farm Payrolls jobs report came in ridiculously stronger than expected). In some cases, investors are not wary, but welcome a wider conflict, with defense stocks in the US being some of the better performing on Monday. Raytheon (+4.5%), Lockheed Martin (+8.5%), and Northrop Grumman (+11.2%) all recording some of their best daily gains in some time. A question that arises, and which could affect oil markets is; what was Iran’s contribution to the situation, if any? Tehran has denied involvement but did commend the attack. Investors will be looking for any events that could affect supply from Iran (they currently send 1.5 million barrels per day to China) or through Iran (via the Strait of Hormuz which is vital for about 30% of oil supply). In any case, the world might be facing higher-for-longer oil prices.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.F
by BlackBull_Markets
Longing Novartis (NVS) Longing Novartis (NVS): A Strategic Investment Amidst Geopolitical Tensions This article presents a compelling rationale for considering a long position in Novartis (NVS) stock. The primary driving factor behind this investment strategy is Novartis' close association with Sandoz (SDZ) following the latter's stock debut last week. Sandoz, a subsidiary of Novartis, is a prominent manufacturer of the generic version of Copaxone, a glatiramer acetate injection widely used in the treatment of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. This article examines the strategic advantages of this association, highlighting the potential benefits of Novartis' position in the pharmaceutical market in light of increasing tensions in the Middle East. Sandoz's Role in the Copaxone Market: Sandoz's significance in the pharmaceutical industry cannot be overstated, particularly with its role in manufacturing the generic version of Copaxone, known as Glatopa. This medication contains the same active ingredient, offers comparable clinical benefits, and shares a similar administration process with Copaxone. Notably, Copaxone has historically been one of Teva Pharmaceuticals' most profitable products. Geopolitical Tensions and Consumer Behavior: A critical aspect of this investment thesis revolves around the current escalation of tensions in the Middle East, specifically the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As geopolitical uncertainties continue to mount in the region, consumers and healthcare providers may seek alternative sources for medications, including those used to treat conditions like multiple sclerosis. This shift in consumer behavior is attributed to concerns about supply chain disruptions and the desire to reduce dependence on Israeli-produced drugs amidst the ongoing conflict.
NYSE:NVSLong
by Helios_Capital_Investment
TEVA SHORT - Israel Palestine ConflictPrice points indicated on chart. Helios is shorting Teva. Looking for put options with close expiry dates. Not financial advice This article explores the potential implications of the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, which was initiated on October 7th. Teva, a global pharmaceutical giant, operates five manufacturing facilities situated within a 50-mile radius of the Gaza Strip border. This geographic proximity raises concerns about the company's exposure to heightened geopolitical tensions, as any escalation in the conflict could disrupt, or even lead to the complete shutdown of these facilities. The article also contemplates the likelihood of nations worldwide seeking alternative pharmaceutical suppliers in the event of such disruptions. Teva's Geographic Exposure: Teva Pharmaceutical Industries maintains five manufacturing facilities located within a mere 50 miles of the Gaza Strip border. This close geographic proximity to a region frequently affected by conflicts and geopolitical tensions exposes Teva to a unique set of risks. The facilities in question play a pivotal role in the production and distribution of essential pharmaceutical products, which adds to the significance of this geographical positioning. Potential Consequences: The crux of this article centers on the potential consequences of the Israel-Palestine conflict for Teva Pharmaceuticals. While the conflict's course remains uncertain, any escalation in hostilities could result in a range of adverse outcomes for the company's operations: Factory Closures: In the event of heightened tensions or direct conflict affecting these manufacturing facilities, temporary closures could disrupt production. Such closures might be mandated for employee safety or due to logistical challenges associated with operating in a conflict zone. Shutdown Scenarios: The most extreme scenario involves the complete shutdown of Teva's facilities near the Gaza Strip border. This would not only halt production but also entail significant economic losses for the company. Global Pharmaceutical Market Dynamics: Furthermore, this article contemplates the global pharmaceutical market dynamics in the context of Teva Pharmaceuticals. In the event of disruptions in Teva's supply chain due to the Israel-Palestine conflict, nations worldwide may seek alternative pharmaceutical suppliers to ensure the availability of essential medications. This shift in supplier preferences could impact Teva's market share and revenues. Conclusion: In conclusion, the Israel-Palestine conflict has introduced a unique set of risks and challenges for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries due to its proximity to the conflict zone. While the actual impact remains uncertain and contingent on the course of the conflict, investors and stakeholders should remain vigilant and consider diversification strategies to mitigate geopolitical risks associated with their pharmaceutical investments. The potential ramifications of this conflict extend beyond regional concerns and could reverberate throughout the global pharmaceutical industry, making it imperative for industry observers and investors to closely monitor developments in the region.
NYSE:TEVAShort
by Helios_Capital_Investment
3
Would the Middle East Conflict Push Gold and Oil Prices Higher?NYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ), COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) Over the weekend, military conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestine shocked the world. I condemn violence against civilians and pray for the victims and their families. In the following paragraphs, I will discuss how the prices of strategically important commodities, namely gold and crude oil, might respond to the eruption of a global crisis. Firstly, let’s look back into the recent past for those crises arising to a global scale. In the last five years, the world has witnessed three major crises of very different natures: • US-China Trade Conflict: from January 2018 to January 2020, the world’s two largest economies imposed import duties to each other in a series of escalating actions and retaliations. A major event occurred on September 18, 2018, where President Trump added 10% tariff on nearly all Chinese-made products. The US-China trade conflict forever altered the global supply chain, with its impact being felt till today. • Covid-19, the most severe pandemic in a century, from its outbreak in January 2020 to 2021. A big event that sparked market fear occurred on February 2, 2020, where the US imposed travel restrictions on incoming air passengers. • Russia-Ukraine Conflict: the first military conflict in Europe since World War II, from February 14, 2022, till now. Secondly, let’s measure how gold and WTI crude oil responded to these crises. For my analysis, I denote the day before Event Day as T0, where we may find last market prices before the impact hit. Event Day will be T+1, and then 1-week after (T+7), 1-month after (1M), 3-month after (3M), all the way through 1-year after (1Y). Here are what I found: US-China Trade Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,201.90 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -0.1% (T+1), +0.1% (T+7), +2.3% (1M), +3.3% (3M), +8.6% (6M), +11.6% (9M), +25.0% (1Y) • Comment: Trade tension between US and China could push the global economy into a recession. Gold, a safe-haven asset, saw its market value growing 25% in a year. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $69.86 per barrel • Price changes by time: +1.2% (T+1), +6.3% (T+7), +4.3% (1M), -27.7% (3M), -14.2% (6M), -24.6% (9M), -8.4% (1Y) • Comment: High tariff raised the price consumers had to pay, hence reducing demand. Crude was down 28% three months after the all-in tariff was imposed. Covid Pandemic • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,574.75 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -1.0% (T+1), -0.1% (T+7), +2.6% (1M), +8.5% (3M), +24.4% (6M), +21.2% (9M), +16.6% (1Y) • Comment: We saw the biggest stock market selloff in March 2020. Gold price was down initially as stock traders needed to raise money and meet margin calls. However, a flight to safety eventually took place, and gold was up 24% in six months. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $53.09 per barrel • Price changes by time: -5.0% (T+1), -11.9% (T+7), -77.1% (1M), -61.4% (3M), -23.1% (6M), -31.1% (9M), +0.9% (1Y) • Comment: Rapid Covid outbreaks stroke fear. Lockdowns put global activities to a pause. The pandemic wiped out oil demand, with WTI falling 80% in a month. April 20, 2020 made history as oil price of the expiring contract went below zero. As storage cost more than selling price, traders were willing to pay others to take away the crude for free. Russia-Ukraine Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,854.60 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -2.5% (T+1), -2.5% (T+7), +6.5% (1M), -1.8% (3M), -2.8% (6M), -5.0% (9M), +5.0% (1Y) • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $91.25 per barrel • Price changes by time: +4.7% (T+1), +5.3% (T+7), +30.7% (1M), +12.90 (3M), +1.1% (6M), +0.6% (9M), -17.2% (1Y) • Comment: A major military conflict in Europe significantly raised the global risk level. Gold, the safe-haven asset, and crude oil, an energy commodity critically important in wartime, both went up in the first month, by 6.5% and 30.7%, respectively. • However, the impact was short-lived. On March 16, 2022, the Fed begin hiking interest rates, which has become the driving force in global market. Impact from Russia-Ukraine became a secondary factor and sat in the back burner. To sum up the above examples, I observe that gold prices usually go up in the aftermath of a global crisis. Crude oil has a mixed bag of reactions. If a crisis results in economic recession and a consequential reduction in oil demand, oil prices would go down. However, in the case of a major war, oil price would go up due to its strategic importance. Review: Event-driven Strategy focusing on Global Crises In June 2022, I introduced a three-factor pricing model for commodities futures: Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium Intrinsic Value is the baseline cash price of the underlying commodities, determined by available supply, demand, inventory, shipping costs, and factors affecting these variables. Market Sentiment indicates if investors are bullish or bearish. Whether speculative investors place more money on the long side or the short side affects the price of a futures contract. Market sentiment could be either positive or negative, resulting in a price premium or a discount of the intrinsic value. The new Crisis Premium factor captures “Event Shock” during a global geopolitical crisis. Previous trade example: Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 28% of global wheat export. Wheat price shot up by 75% following the start of the conflict. I designed a Long Strangle options strategy on CBOT Wheat futures, and simultaneously bought out-of-the-money (OTM) call and put options. A “risk-on” outcome could push wheat price higher, making the calls more valuable, where a “risk-off” outcome would pull wheat price back down, making the puts in-the-money (ITM). Trading Opportunities with Micro Gold Since the September FOMC meeting, gold prices suffered a 6.3% drawdown, sending the futures price from $1,969 to $1,845. Friday settlement price was nearly 9% below the yearly high. On the one hand, high-interest money market funds beat out non-interest-yielding gold investment; on the other hand, strong dollar raised the cost of gold purchase by foreign investors. As a result, gold prices have been under pressure. However, my analysis illustrates that gold prices could rise in response to geopolitical conflicts. Since its founding, Israel had five major wars with its Arab neighbors. We do not know whether this time it would be contained as a regional conflict or spark a chain reaction of a global war. By the intensity of how it started, it doesn’t seem like a short one. To express a view of rising gold prices, we could consider a long position in COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). The December contract (MGCZ3) was settled at $1,845. Each contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces, or $18,450 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $780 per contract. Hypothetically, if gold futures go back up to $2020, its yearly high, the $175 ($2020-$1845) price increase would translate into $1,750 for a long futures position. If gold price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $10 per contract. Alternatively, we could consider the newly launched Micro Gold Options. A Long Strangle Options Strategy, where simultaneously buying OTM calls or puts, could be deployed if we expect a big move in gold price, but not certain of its direction. Trading Opportunities with WTI Crude Oil Since June, WTI crude oil first staged a nearly 40% rise, from $67 going to $93. However, it has seen a 9% drawdown since the Fed meeting on September 20th. A major military conflict in the Middle East, the world’s most important oil producing region, threatens to interrupt oil supply and push up oil price. If the conflict is escalated to involve major oil exporting nations, the situation could be dire. To express a view of rising crude price, we could consider a long position in NYMEX WTI Futures ( NYSE:CL ). The December contract (CLZ3) was settled at $83.18. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 barrels, or $83,180 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $6,186 per contract. Hypothetically, if WTI futures go up above $100, which we saw from February to July 2022 in the first months of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the $17 price increase would translate into $17,000 for a long futures position. If crude oil price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $1000 per contract. Similarly, the newly launched Micro WTI Options could express a view that a big move in oil price is expected, without knowing its direction. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
35
Trading Plans for MON. 10/09 - Geopolitical Tensions, Oil PricesS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 10/09 The geopolitical tensions with the attacks on Israel could be the main drivers of the market today and for the rest of the week. As we published in our trading plans on Thu. 10/05: "With JOLTS on Tuesday, Initial Jobless Claims Numbers this morning, and Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow, this week is all about Jobs and Jobs. So far, there is no sign of any letting up in the strength of the Job market". This morning's much stronger than expected NFP data re-affirmed this strength and quashing any hopes of a softer fed anytime soon. Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4351, 4327, 4302, 4283, or 4253 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4347, 4297, 4279, 4261, or 4248 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4320 or 4287, and explicit short exits on a break above 4265. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
JBNK - Macro view is not certain, but break-out CaH on a Daily Weekly macro perspective has a nice diagonal pattern, that respects key support and resistance zones. Although it is hard to definitely state that primary wave 4 has found its bottom in Apr23 due to its relatively short timespan within the macro structure. But as I a low-risk trader I am not concerned with the overall wave pattern, but with what price and volume are doing in particular moment in time. That being sad, zooming in to the potential weekly handle zone, I really like how the pattern tightens and volatility subsides. 3 week tight closes in September also provides potential evidence for accumulation rather than distribution in place. Could be actionable above 1420, it the advance will be supported by volume and strength in overall market.
JLong
by artemfedorov
NXSN/Next Vision - 2023 Rally may need to rest My ElliotWave (EW) analysis on NXSN shows that price has approached meaningful mid-term resistance zone at 2352-2627. If my technical thesis holds, price shall start digesting its 250% rally from Oct'22 bottom in near term, finishing its wave iii and starting corrective wave iv. Important and ideal EW support zone for this potential correction is 1760-1472, that coincides with advancing 200D moving average. From the trading perspective this is not exactly the area for any short selling attempt, because price has not broken even the short-term uptrend, staying above 8/21 EMAs and 50MA. One may even consider entertaining taking a long position on break out above 2400 zone with staggered 3-5% stops, although I would highly caution any attempt to trade it for the long-term move - only as a swing-trading approach (short-term), bearing in mind EW resistance zone mentioned above. The stock remains one of the strongest on TASE both technically and fundamentally. Impressive double and triple digits quarter Revenue and EBITDA growth. Any correction, followed by a base building process later this and early next year may present good investing/trading opportunities.
NShort
by artemfedorov
NRXP COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Against Delta VariantNRx Pharmaceuticals announced that its BriLife COVID-19 Vaccine is Effectiveness Against Delta Variant. Information was released by Israel Institute for Biological Research. Since the pandemic isn`t over, there is a place in the market for new developers that have effective vaccines. I consider this a premium call, the upside i see here is 400%, or the 24usd resistance. NRXP 52 Week Range 4.07 - 76.99usd. Now the price is 6.75usd. Is this a buy or not? Market Cap of only 396.97Mil
NASDAQ:NRXPLong
by TopgOptions
1
NNDM: Irregular flat correction Explained my thesis in the chart. I'm starting to read some articles and have found a good amount of conflicting points. CEO letter to shareholders the 9th seems pretty possitive. No debt, cash reserves, and a healthy amount of revenue. Seems as if this C wave is happening on account of dilution via direct offering. Maybe we will see this get beat down a few more ticks and then start the trend again? Thanks for looking! What do you all think? Is this a good pick in the 3D space? I Started my position at $7.79 I might be a tad early (not as early as SSYS I hope) lol hopefully we will get some bully momentum soon!
NASDAQ:NNDMLong
by adambiers
8
Eco/monetary news n°26: USD and USA going to zero> Stunningly stupid bureaucrats and billionaires start campaign of repression, looking to get killed by mobs maybe *********************** Trying to create martyrs? Make everyone angry? End up like Abd al-Ilah and Nuri al-Said? Sure looks like it. They must be doing it on purpose, can't be that oblivious and braindead. US members of congress looked terrified when the capitol got stormed, and they couldn't win a war against farmers, so I take it they must like the thrill and want more of it? France is mostly demilitarized, they got 200,000 men total I'd say, and big ghettoes they cannot handle. They also must enjoy S&M, the senate passed a law that allows the pencil pushers to have anyone arrested and sent to jail immediately on "hate speech" charges. Not sure what hate speech means, and I guess identification is made by IP or by a snitch, just like in the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union were able to keep their repression on for 3 reasons: - Huge reserves of Oil & Wood 1 NatGas that brought the money (bribes) in - A large army - Privileging the working class (oppressing the farmers) Billionaires from internet companies and more have launched a coordinated attack on the competition, including parler that has all its providers block them (amazon servers, apple store, other things, even their lawyers left I heard, and so on). France radical left had some reactions (La France insoumise - "France that won't submit" or "we won't submit") about the US (summed up): - François Ruffin: "Trump is not my cup of tea, but Silicon Valley geants ban of his is scandalous, and tomorrow we'll all be censored" - Jean-Luc Mélenchon: "I am extremely hostile to any US government, but republicans a bit more... The divide continues to grow... They have been interfering too much in the world for the past 30 years... There will be more wars, Biden surrounding himself with warmongers... The US are getting shipwrecked..." > In 2020 human constructions on earth have surpassed entire biomass (estimates, not sure that is really true) *********************** Saw this at the start of this year. They're sure they didn't underestimate anything? It went from 3% to greater. Is this some sort of peak? As far as growth can go? Or continue, and just rebuild earth entirely? Biggest part of constructions are buildings, and outside of Africa people aren't multiplying anymore (even Uyghurs). Infinite growth... That's something made up by infinite greed. Maybe eco-terrorists start to destroy everything now? Might be interesting to keep this in mind. > Stratospheric warming could lead to winter weather in regions ("beast from the east"), and to crazy NG futures *********************** There is some weather activity going on, and this can lead to some cold regions, don't ask me too much about it. Maybe something happens as a result? More covid deaths ==> Another March 2020. Something to keep in mind... > "Just a rant" they said: US military desperate as they cannot recruit since everyone is too fat or stupid *********************** There are real consequences to things you know... This is not new but military officers have wrote an official letter about it, they're worried... Apparently less than 30% are suitable for recruitment. This will impact US imperialism, the military-industrial complex, the balance of power, and obviously world currencies. taskandpurpose.com > Lebanese CB governor denies ponzi accusations from low IQ french president that failed his exams 3X in a row *********************** Fun fact: french president is a bureaucrat whose only achievement is his diplomas. Which he failed 3 times, or got on his 3rd try. A lot of smart people agree that he is dumb. He is the least intelligent one I know of, I only know them since the 1950s, but would not surprise me if he was the dumbest ever. He screamed at Lebanon they were running a ponzi scheme, which they might be I don't know I've been following a tiny bit from far, haven't really got into it. And the governor recently gave an exclusive interview to a french media and denied the accusation, saying "My conscience is clear". > Oy Vey: Bank of Israel intervenes to slow raging evergoing charge of their currency, makes record FX purchases *********************** The US pyramid scheme currency is going to zero too fast for Israel they cannot handle it. Their foreign reserves has grown to 43% of their GDP. They give 2 reasons: offset the Shekel gains (caused by USD losses) and pay for covid expenses. It's at its lowest level since at least 20 years. Would have been a great short if my broker had this, and if I did "exotics". I don't really know what to make of it, the usd is going to zero, already knew that. Not much different from other USD pairs or BTCUSD, except going down more strongly than all the other ones (USDCNH is recovering a bit). Power moving more away from the west and towards the middle east (and of course east Europe & SEA).
by MrRenev
7