S&P500: Reaccumulation and Outlook for End of 2023Following the significant downturn of the S&P500 yesterday, the forecasts I set out on October 23rd are taking shape. I had hinted at the potential outlook of a market correction in the last week of October, and now, we find ourselves in a critical zone that could signal a reaccumulation period for institutional investors. Below, I illustrate the technical and fundamental reasons that strengthen this theory:
COT Report Analysis: A look at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report highlights that Asset Managers added approximately 500,000 long positions in the week of May 2, 2023. Conversely, Dealers, operating as market makers, accumulated about 300,000 short positions. This indicates potential reaccumulation in this price area, especially considering the POC (Point of Control) of the volume profile, which currently marks 4143.00.
Historical Trends: Historically, September has been a tumultuous month for stock markets, with October often following a similar trajectory, albeit less accentuated. However, the months of November and December tend to reverse this trend, often bringing optimism and rallies to the markets. This tendency could be further amplified by the upcoming quarterly results from Nvidia and the expected data on the Core CPI, which could indicate a reduction in inflation, given the persistence of high interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Movement: The curve of the 10-year US Treasury bond is showing signs of exhausting its bullish trend, having recently touched 5%. While it could reach higher levels, I see this escalation as increasingly improbable.
CBOE Skew Analysis: The CBOE skew index, a market asymmetry indicator, has shown a marked decrease, currently standing at 132. This suggests a possible reduction in the perceived market risk, hinting at the idea of an impending rally.
In conclusion, based on my market analysis and knowledge, I am inclined to maintain a positive outlook for November and December. It's interesting to note that, from my perspective, the current price of the S&P500 is balanced compared to the lows of October 2022, suggesting that the idea of an imminent rally is not out of the question. However, as always, it's essential to operate with caution and information, as market forecasts inherently carry risks and uncertainties.
