NIFTY (Short Term Strategy)Hi Everyone,
I would like to give an update with the NIFTY trading strategy for the short term having US elections results to be declared on November 3rd (The election results are expected to delay by 1-2 weeks due to coronavirus and postal ballot, so we can expect a lot of volatility combined with new coronavirus waves in the western countries).
As you may see in the chart Nifty is in strongly bullish mode especially because of the RBI/Government support of buying the bonds every time during the market panic, But with the US election results to come in 2 weeks it is always good to have a trading strategy and also protect the downfall in our current portfolio with the expected volatility.
This is an options strategy effectively we are trying to buy insurance to protect from any huge downfall.
BUY NIFTY 11200 Put option expiring End of November or
BUY NIFTY 11000 Put option expiring End of November or
BUY NIFTY 10500 Put options expiring End of November
Options are always very very risky, Nifty may inch higher for few days but as we get close to the elections it may start to behave volatile. Please do not invest in options more than what you want to lose, Personally, I won't invest more than Rs. 5,000 - 15,000 in any option play. All the above options might expire worthless, so it is always good to have a stop profit just like how we have a stop loss :)
As always this is only for educational purposes and not financial advice. Please let me know your views in the comments and Please let me know if you would like me to analyze any particular share :)
Thanks!
ITC
ITC Limited (Long and Short Term Strategy View)Hi Everyone,
Here is my educational view on the ITC strategy for both Option traders and investors.
Firstly, the Technical view pattern:
1. As you can see in the chart, we can notice that it has formed reverse Cup and Handle, the cup has been formed and the handle is being formed now. A reverse cup and handle is a bearish mode and it may see further downfall as the market goes down (with the view of the US election in the next two weeks).
2. Buying interest is not much in ITC, to have a reversal we need to retest above 205 which is the strongest resistance point.
3. Trend - Bearish
4. Cup - Reverse cup
5. Depth of the cup - Usually a cup should fall 1/3 of the previous advance, and ITC has fallen more than 1/3 of its previous highs before March
6. Handle - The handle is currently being formed and expect short term volatility within the range of 158 - 180 for the handle to form. So we may see a jump up and down in the near term (1-2 weeks)
7. Volume - If we see any huge selling volume after the handle formation and breaking below 158 may lead to a further downfall towards 140-130
For Options Traders:
It is suggested to go with cash secured option trades and it looks a very risky bet for Options traders. Both sides may burn their money in the short term, but playing covered calls or puts will be the best scenario until we can see an accumulation spree.
For Value Investors along with Technical Analysis:
As always ITC is an evergreen company (I know what you are thinking, it is in the Cigarette business so it may not be 100% green company. I agree to this :) Its 50% revenues are generated from cigarettes and the other 50% is from FMCG, Q1 results have not been impressive due to lockdown and other restrictions. Q2 results may be better but the hotel business has affected very badly, so we may have to wait and watch on how the results will meet the expectations. Overall with a PE Ratio of 14 and a dividend yield of about 5%, it looks like an attractive investment.
The suggested Buy range is as below:
5% in the range of 150-160
15% in the range of 130-140
25% in the range of 125-130
25% in the range of 120-130
30% in the range below 120
All the above suggestions and advice is for educational purpose and not investment advice. Please do let me know If you would like me to analyze any other shares. I will keep you posted on the ITC updates as we go along.
Thanks!
ITC - trend change probability on cards#ITC - Stock is in the process of a trend change, keep it on your radar. Move above 173, can see fast move towards 187 -190 levels.
Accumulation zone 163- 170.
SL few ticks below 163
Trade type: Swing, and can covert into positional as well.
**Trade at your own risk
Watch out for ITC over next one month ITC has created a wedge formation, wait for the price to get above 208 and with this move price has potential to gain 20% over next one month.
Resistance :
200 EMA and upper line of the wedge structure.
Support :
192 and wedge bottom line
Targets :
T1 : 223
T2 : 252
Entry: 208
ITC Weekly/Daily demand zone 159.8-148ITC good dividend stock around 5%
Weekly/Daily demand zone 159.8-148
PRO:
1. 2 exciting candles in execution candles(daily)
2. Weekly/ daily coinciding
3.origin of move
4. value pick
Con:
1. slow moving stock
2. hospitality business of ITC was hit in ITC during covid
ITC Weekly/Daily/ 4 hr supply 220.8-233.6ITC Weekly/Daily/ 4 hr supply 220.8-233.6
cmp:206.35 11 Aug 2020
ITC even though its not constantly uptrend, once it reaches the level we can take Limit entry
PRo:
1.2 legout in daily candle
2. weekly/daily coinciding supply zones
3.ITc is not constantly trending up, its like zic-zac up, so chances are that if it reaches the supply, it may react till next opposite weekly demand
con:
Left to execution in either DAily or 240 min...there were kind og range, so panding orders might filled
ITC took Strong SupportITC has taken good support and rallied... buy buy buy...
if you are not willing to buy in futures take options =>buy 215 CE sell 225 CE ...
expectation is it will reach 225 so by that time expiry comes in and you can eat premium of 3200
maximum loss is 5500 if it starts falling down to 195 then sell one more 225 CE you will loose around 2k-3k which is nothing
I bought 215 ce at 2.65 and sold 225 ce at 2.65 already at 700 profit...
I think ITC is a good dividend yield company and holding it will give you 5 to 7% profit i dividend yield itself and if it rallies that is extra... so buy in stocks if you have money