S&P500 Long Call Vertical 66% Probability Of ProfitI've played yesterdays some S&P500 with vetical spread.
(1) RSI in the middle zone
Any direction is possible
(2) Forming a bullish triangle - again
Similar cases in the past one year:
(3) There is a little more space to the upside
(4) Relative Implied Volatility is low
So I'm choosing a debit strategy.
CONCLUSION:
I'm using LONG CALL VERTICAL -
Buy 1 SPY April16' 375 Call
Sell 1 SPY April16' 380 Call
Debit call spread for 4.12 debit
Probability of Profit: 66%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 21%
Max profit: 88$
Max loss at expiry: 412$ (Buy Power)
Max loss with my risk management: ~95$
Tasty IVR: 4.8
Expiry: 36 days
Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $379
Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 4.56 credit)
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IVR
RUSSEL ETF 20% profit play during correction with Iron Condor
One of the most highest probability of trades are: neutral Iron Condors with high Implied Volatility on large indices. (SPX, DJI, RUT)
The more an indice is overbougth, than better this strategy works, as the correction also results more movement into downside.
Unlike other overvalued stocks, however: the indices are not collapsing. (except for 1-2 extreme cases where immediate intervention is required, eg March 2020)
I'm always trading the alternative ETFs of these indices:
SPY = S&P500 = ES mini futures IWM = Russel 2000 = RT mini futures DIA = DJI = YM mini futures .etc...
On Friday I've opened an IWM Iron Condor, so here are my reasons:
(1) RTY1! Futures Analysis
The Russel mini futures at local top hit the 3 year trendline, bluffy upside trendline permanently broke.
(2) Divergence with breakdown
Hard daily divergence in the last few months, my smooth RSI trendline breeaks.
(3) Relative high IVR
Relative Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) increases.
This value, if high enough (e.g., above 45), favors neutral credit strategies like Iron Condor.
In the case of indices, this is particularly rare, occurring every few months. At these times you can safely open neutral strategies (wide wings), for example: Iron Condor, Strangle.
(4) My Iron Condor hunter script signal
My Iron Condor Hunter indicator give me an automatic signal with safe ranges.
As you see: in the past almost every time indicated the safe range successfully. (I'm not counting the 2020 Marc, every regular strategy failed in that crash).
(5) Safe levels are well defined in my range
I'm always defining safe price levels (based on the nearest short term high/low points).
In my case these levels are well defined inside the Iron Condor Hunter range:
CONCLUSION: I've opened an Iron Condor on IWM (Russel ETF)
Profit target: 20% Max profit: 68$ Max loss: 332$ Tasty IVR: 13 POP: 69% Expiry: 42 days
Strategy: Neutral IC
Buy 1 IWM April16' 185 Put Sell 1 IWM April16' 189 Put Sell 1 IWM April16' 244 Call Buy 1 IWM April16' 248 Call
Stop: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below put strikes or above call strikes. Safe levels (190,205,229) are defending my borders.
Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case. Inside the curve I'm usually in profit.
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DOW JONES debit spread play with good chanceI've opened a LONG CALL VERTICAL spread yesterday end of day for Dow Jones.
Correction maybe consolidated, I'm expecting some short squeeze soon.
Otherwise the probability of profit is godd, and the trade is manageable because of lower strikes.
(1) Relative Implied Volatility is low
I'm using my Relative implied volatility indicator to determine the credit/debit type of option trades.
Low relative implied volatility justifies debit option strategy (longing options) instead of creadit strategy (shorting options)
(2) Neutral RSI - no oversold or overbought
Uptrend still holding after a quick correction.
My Smooth RSI indicator is in no one's land.
There is plenty of room up and down.
(3) Observing other Down Jones instrument
Every Down Jones instrument pretty same indicator values for RSI and RIV too: DJI, YM, DJIA, DIA
CONCLUSION:
I'm using LONG CALL VERTICAL -
Buy 1 DIA April16' 305 Call Sell 1 DIA April16' 310 Call
Debit call spread for 3.92 debit
Probability of Profit: 67% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 26% Max profit: 105$ Max loss at expiry: 395$ (Buy Power) Max loss with my risk management: ~120$ Tasty IVR: 3.1 Expiry: 38days
Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $309
Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 4.55 debit)
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Invesco Mortgage Capital
Company Profile:
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc., also called Invesco Mortgage Capital, is a holding company, which engages in investing, financing and managing residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans. The firm primarily invests in the following: residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), non-agency RMBS, non-agency CMBS, credit risk transfer securities that are unsecured obligations issued by government-sponsored enterprises, residential and commercial mortgage loans, and other real estate-related financing arrangements. The company was founded on June 5, 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, GA. The listed name for IVR is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc
Details in chart. COVID hit. Company seems to slowly be improving financials. Quarterly coming up soon. Q3 was a good listen. I feel a positive turnaround coming along. Looking for price to hit $12.17 by 2022 min. I don't believe they will bankrupt. Looking forward to upcoming call. Might grab a couple shares just to get in early but will watch this for a while.
What do you think?
Like, Follow, Agree, Disagree!
IVR leveraged silver miner 500% on next rally??-Investigator Resources (IVR) has intersected up to 755g/t silver from infill drilling at the Paris Silver Project in South Australia
-The 20,500 metre drilling program began in September with aims of improving the grade and confidence of the resource
-Drilling is still underway, with 19,300 metres of the drilling campaign already completed
-A diamond drill rig is scheduled to arrive on-site before the end of November to support quality assurance and control requirements
Some old news headlines. I think with the DXY looking to decline. PM markets should start lighting up. We have had a good consolidation so keeping an eye on moves this week!
IVR reversal to $3.30, prep for Long/CALLFundamental analysis indicates IVR has seen the worst of its COVID related impacts, since 23MAR20 it has slowly been recovering (roughly 80%). Sentimental analysis sets the stage for a continued recovery as the housing market performs well as interest rates are being kept low encouraging purchases. Technical analysis shows IVR has developed a pattern of growth and sell off over the past 18 days. There has been a ~5 day growth period followed by a ~1 day sell off. The next iteration of that pattern seems poised to commence. The RSI confirms that pattern and likely reversals (above 70). Wait for a reversal early confirmation of MACD crossover over the 0-line, and final confirmation of 13 SMA crossing under 30 SMA before purchasing long position (this final confirmation may cause too much lag to get in for maximum profit).
On this stock, I favor the Long position as it currently offers ~30% dividend. Getting in low with considerable room for growth is a good long term position.
Entry price - $3.30-$3.35
TGT Sale price - $8 (medium term) / $18 (long term)
Stop loss - $2.5
Max position size - 5% of portfolio
$IVR REIT WITH THE HIGHEST BOUNCE BACK POTENTIAL 500%!Going to Keep this short and sweet.
Over the last 2 years prior to COVID-19, Invesco Mortgage Capital consistently steered between $15 - $17.
With a potential Vaccine in the mist of being approved from Pfizer...
www.nytimes.com
I expect the nation to bounce back and quickly...
With $IVR Currently sitting at $3.13 a 500%-550% growth over the next 3-5 months is not unfathomable.
This is a Strong Buy and Hold Situation. And sell when it bounces back to normalcy levels for a nice Profit.
IVR- Retest phase before 12$ markAs I predicted in my published idea on the 5th of June, IVR broke the 5$ resistant strongly.
At the moment, IVR is going back to the 5$ to test the price again. However, I believe this price mark will act as a trampoline.
If you are familiar with Fibonacci Retracements tool, you will notice that the 12$ was around the 0.618 mark of Fibonacci tool. And in my experience, this is a very strong resistant zone.
Thus, I won't surprise to see IVR reaching the 12$ price before the end of this month before falling down.
Again, we never can tell exactly what future holds, so please do your due diligence.
But above all, good luck, enjoy and ride safe my friends!
IVR - Gate is opening. Run, my bulls, run!IVR spent about a month dipping under the 3.32 resistant line. However, that resistance is now broken. IVR has reached the 5$ price mark two times since March, and now I'm positive that IVR price is going to break the 5$ price mark very soon! As people usually say: "Third time's a charm". Put your helmet on and ride safe my friends!
IVR - Trend / Support squeezeI checked the SEc fillings, there is no confirmed earnings release date as shown here on tradingview. :
As a result, the Company will be relying on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (the “SEC”) Orders under Section 36 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Release Nos. 34-88318 and 34-88465), to delay the filing of its Quarterly Report. The Company expects to file the Quarterly Report no later than June 25, 2020, which is 45 days from the original filing deadline of May 11, 2020.
Underlaying gets squeezed, please place your bets for tomorrow.
I ll try to get a fill for Option: IVR 19Jun Long Put 2, means I am bearish.
For the retracement I ll sell premium. Enjoy and good luck. :)
IVR - Positivity for real estate pennystock?I'm thinking of three scenario (indicated 1, 2 and 3 on the graph) may happen.
1 - Price's going down below 2.60$.
2 - Price's heading to the support zone at around 2.60$ then bouncing back to the 4.95$ zone.
3 - Price will be injected with a few doses of red bull, will break the resistant zone at 4.95 and will head to the 12$ zone.
I'm exited to see what's gonna happen next week.