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S&P guess is pullback 4040 (20SMA) with rally to 4400 (200SMA)Looking at my technical analysis, we were due for a rally last week after double bottoming at the support of the down channel. Major US holiday weekend with low volume are usually times to see these kinds of rallies. I would expect the market to retest the gains made now that traders will be back, hence my guess at a retest of the April 5th, 2021 gap up area (gray bar) around 4040. That area has been key support and resistance since May 2nd. If the S&P can find support, which seems likely since it has both the gray region and the 20 day VMWA to act as support, then I would expect to see a push to the top of the red channel around 4400. The 4400 level around mid-July would see both a test of the 200 day SMA, the down channel, and the blue trend line all as resistance. This also aligns with a strong trading area as shown by the orange line. After that, I can only assume that we will resume the down trend. I cannot see any reason for the S&P to hit an ATH in the current environment. That level of FOMO/MOMO is gone in the market. IMO the headwinds of higher interest rates, inflation, and easing of QE will drive the market lower (3600), maybe even much lower (3200), before we start to see a bottom. 1W
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
1
S&P 500 --> Short term $440 or $360???Here is my latest technical analysis for the S&P. Been stuck under the midline of the red down channel since May. With a gap down today and the midline and black trend line squeezing price, it looks like the market is getting ready to make its move Friday or Monday. I see two key levels that we are likely headed towards. We could rally up to the the resistance of the down channel, which is around 440. Or, we could fall further to the 360 range (maybe 370). IMO, the upper move seems a bit more likely, but don't be surprised if we get some form of bear trap down to the purple dotted midline before the bounce. 1W to show the channels and trend lines
AMEX:IVV
by Dr_Roboto
Pitchfork TA of S&P 500 starting 1950's - Down seems obviousSimple pitchfork TA of the S&P starting around 1950. Before 1950 the data on TV seems to change how its plotted between 1W and 1M. black center line solid blue line is 1.0x dashed blue line is 0.5x solid red line is 2.0x dashed red line is 1.5x The analysis seems to show the S&P currently back under the 1.0x blue trend line after a being above it since April 2022. The cRSI is also showing the S&P reaching the oversold level, but clearly has room to go lower. I would not be surprised to see the S&P to spend some time testing this blue trend line. Back in Sept. 2001 the S&P spent about 7 months hovering along this line before capitulating in a big correction to the bottom in 2002. It seems hard to see how the S&P will be able to go much higher and that all pressure is now to the downside. The blue dotted line at 0.5x seems like an obvious location in the next year or so (touch off the Jan 2020 high). Let's hope it does not head towards the center line or below that. The correction that we have seen so far pales in comparison to many of the correction in the last 70 years. Even more hope that we don't see a return to the 70's where the market basically moved sideways for over a decade (actually 13 years: 1969-1982, you could even argue that it started in 1966). 1W 1D
TVC:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
This is a good place for S&P 500 to find supportS&P 500 bounced off a major trend line on Friday. The start of Friday saw a drastic drop to test and a quick reversal to reclaim support. So far on this Monday support is holding. IMO, we could see a rally here as we both have support and market is pretty oversold right now. I don't think it will go very high as the gap above has shown to be strong resistance. Even if we do get a good rally, I don't expect it to last as there just seems like too much downward pressure. The areas of 3600 and 3200 seem like much better long term support. 1D with 20d VWMA and 200d SMA
U
by Dr_Roboto
1
Why so much volatility at the current price levels for S&P???IMO it is because the S&P is testing the center line of the purple channel as support. This trend line has been the core support for the S&P since 2009. You can clearly see this support in the chart. If the bull rally is to survive, then it needs to hold this line. What you are seeing right now is a classic case of the algorithms and hedge funds fighting over which direction to go. It seems that the recent miss of expectations from both Target and Walmart are pointing to a breakdown of support here. If support is lost, then the next major support trend line is the center of the blue channel and most likely the bottom of the purple channel. Don't be surprised if we have a meltdown that looks like 2008 or 2020 before we hit that level. Also don't be surprised if breakdown more over the next week and then see a relief rally to test the purple centerline to see if it becomes resistance and not support. I think we all would like to see it bounce from here and test the bottom of the green channel, but the headwinds are strong, and I don't think unlikely. 1W 1D with 20 day VWMA and 200 day sma 4h
AMEX:IVV
by Dr_Roboto
2
S&P 500 bounced off support but trapped under April 5, 2021 gap Here you can see the core trading channel for the S&P 500, and that Friday was a strong bounce off the bottom of the channel. However, the 4040 level has been a strong resistance/support level. Not obvious on the US500, but in the SPY this red area is a gap up that was not filled until May 9th. That region was tested several times in the days following that. You can see that this morning's price is flirting with this level again. My guess is a false breakout above, and then down to the next trend line in the 3600 range. However, watch these lines and place your bets accordingly. US500 4h SPY 1D
U
by Dr_Roboto
S&P 500 Trading Channels to WatchAn update on the trading channels that I see in the S&P. The December ATH tested resistance of both the blue channel that has it roots in the great depression and 50-60's and the black channel that is rooted in the housing market crash. We now see the S&P correcting down to test the purple channel from 2015. Looking at the cRSI on the weekly, even with all of the selling, we still have not seen the mean (purple line) break below the 50 level. Thus, we are still in the "green". However, you can see a steep slope to the mean cRSI. More worrying to me is the recent rally in early April did not exceed the upper cRSI bound and registered a "weak" (w) for it strength. Right now the weekly cRSI is sitting right at the traditional oversold level. I see two main options in the short term. 1) Bull case: A short term rally off the top of the purple channel to the top of the red down channel. I just can't see us getting any higher than that. Earnings are good, but not FOMO good like the past 2 years. 2) Bear case: Loss of support and a break down into the purple channel. If that happens, we should find support at the black channels mid line or worse case down to the center of the purple channel. Either way, expect a strong rally to test the resistance of the purple channel. If this bear case does happen, IMO, you can expect the S&P to be trapped inside the black or blue channel for the next year or more. 1M - Blue Channel 1W - Black Channel 1D - Purple Channel 4h - Red Channel
TVC:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
S&P 500 in trouble if it does not holdLooking at the 2 major channels for the S&P 500 (note this is on VOO which is a few dollars off of SPY or IVV, but trends are same), you can see that it is currently below the blue channel that it has used over the last few years. I pointed out the obvious places where it has used if for support. IMO, if the S&P below this channel this week, then a lot more downside is coming and the super bull market of the last 2 years is dead. The next obvious place to fall is the center line of the black channel. 1W 4h 30min
AMEX:VOO
by Dr_Roboto
2
S&P Growth (SPYG) Channels since 2002 - Way, Way Above NormalFYSA, SPYG tracks teh top 50 largest securities in the S&P 500. Holds 5 of the 6 FAAMNG stocks, which accounts for 39% of the ETF. I laid out what I see as the 4 main channels for SPYG. It is clearly obvious that it the current trend is way above the trend from both the 2002-2008 and 2010-2019. You can see the 2020-22 rally was an extension of a trend that started in 2019 that was interrupted by the COVID crisis. It truly was the once in a life time opportunity for most traders. Now the more subjective part. This really depends on if you believe the market will eventually return to the mean. To me, it looks like the party is over and we are going to see a return to one of the lower channels in the coming months and years. We could see a 2nd attempt to test the red channel, but the outlook with reduced QE and continued challenges from inflation, Russia, and Covid are not fertile ground for this continued irrational market behavior. The most obvious trend change to me would be to work its way down in to the blue channel, probably stepping down on the major support/resistance lines. Not sure if it would be better to slowly do this, or end up with a 2000 or 2008 crash. At least a crash has major opportunities for VIX ETFs and its like a band-aid. Check out the 1D chart below. You can see how the price jumps around the channel edges. 1W 1D
AMEX:SPYG
by Dr_Roboto
1
Flip a CoinDISCLAIMER This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. There is absolutely no financial advice here because the only financial advice I can give is to research, research, and research. This is a shit-post. I write hypercritical microscopic analytical investigations into companies to determine if they are worth an investment. On occasion I wax poetic about a specific visage of a company that seems worth sharing. I have no data to discuss because all of it has been offered, presented, interpreted through word, song and dance. This is an excerpt from a diary of some moron throwing pennies against the wall. This is a shit-post. Verbal Pukage What kills an ideaology? A question. What kills a question? An answer. What kills me? People who don't answer my questions. Throughout the existence of humanity there has been a dichotomy of haves and have-nots. Resources, abilities, strength, goods, technologies, knowledge. Knowledge is our connection to our past, present, and future. A fact is a fact given a proposal, appropriate testing, data collection, and general consensus. Everything we might know was given to us from those that came before, and everything we might discover is a gift we give to those that come after, built on our ancestors. If Nuclear Armageddon is to be our fate, it would be the knowledge of humanity, the facts of this universe, that we can give to whatever may come after. Still, it is the presentation and acceptance of these facts that remain the greatest mystery, the true Gordian Knot. Which offers the Internet no finer analogy than the Library of Alexandria. What about Evergrande? What about China's property sector, and all the hedgefunds, institutions and retail investors holding these assets? What about the hyperinflationary increase in commodity prices? What about the increasing cost of gas despite decreasing real wages, a historic increase in consumer credit debt, and an economy that is finally being classified as being in a recession despite several years of negative real GDP growth? What about the unjust and evil Russian invasion of Ukraine? What about the billions of people about to lose access to grain from this conflict? What about the hyperinflationary cost increase of food as is? What about COVID's dueling Omicron-variants BA.1 and BA.2? What about new COVID strains? What about the 10% of people who are left chronically sick and effected by COVID? What about the decrease in real pay in the gig economy a la magical algorithmic reductions in pay? What about the family that will die in the cold without food and clothing? What about the company that will shut down due to high energy costs, an unfavourable economic model with no safety net for the employees? What about the dramatic decrease in births? What about the ever-growing majority of young adult's unable to buy a home? What about GameStop, and the massive phantom short issue plaguing the stock market? What about corruptive and farcical accounting documentation regurgitated by a hyper-majority of publicly listed companies? What about the collapse in private market valuations? What about the collapse in the emerging markets? What about the collapse in junk bonds? What about the collapse in respect for sovereign debt? What about the hyperinflationary short squeeze on one of nickel's biggest distributors and the composite incredulous behaviour of the LME? What about the massive amount of insider trading going on in Congress, in the SEC, at the Federal Reserve, at the Wall Street banks? What about the current macroeconomic event leads bulls to charge into the slaughter? The Federal Reserve has two mandates: 1) To ensure price stability, and 2) Maximum employment. Maximum employment came and left somewhere around 2000, where the Federal Reserve overfilled, then popped, a massive bubble on fears that the modern economy might crash because of some lazy computer software engineers. Again in 2008, the Federal Reserve came up to the plate and managed to strike-out on another multi-asset bubble from every front. Stacking historical context, it leaves only two possible impressions: 1) The Federal Reserve, Treasury, SEC, FINRA, DTC, DTCC, Wall Street Mega-banks, United States government from the top-down, all the way to the poor investigators left to scramble and charge the wanking bankers who caused the bubble are completely inept, and 2) The system does not operate with the common people as the primary benefactor. This isn't a little red opinion piece, this is real alpha. The Federal Reserve has two real mandates, and neither are written. First, the Federal Reserve exists to create and maintain the economic system under which the populace lives and works under; keep the economy running always. Second, the only speculators allowed to make money are those approved by the system. A simple joke: Economists are scientists studying money who have no money. A not so simple joke: Economists are scientists studying how to make money work when money is toxic for the system. Money is the oil on which the economy runs it's motor. Everyone needs money for everything, so money needs to be in the tanks, which is odd because the end goal is money. Too much money is the same as pumping too much of anything into a fixed volume, hence the major problem with the Federal Reserve pumping mega-banks on Wall Street full of trillions of dollars. Still, the idea that economies could become self-perpetual machines is ludicrous, much to the chagrin of cryptocurrencies. Maybe this analyst's grand quantitative dreams of a perfectly running world are as vaporous as the tanks most of the population are running on. Still, the utilization of hard data can guide the gentle hand in a soft repositioning and redirection of the economy. But that isn't what is about to happen. This isn't a hard mathematical matrix of confounding transient factors leading to some grand conundrum that only an omniscient being with infinite computational power can foresee. People make X, they spend Y. As Y increases -approaches, and exceeds X, they can't survive. That's it. There's literally no other alpha guiding my analyses, there is no hidden database full of secretive factoids left to me by some grand magical order of economists standing over this world in an attempt to guide and better it, because no one is doing that. It's logic. On a scale of 1 to Alexander the Great, I have vice and that's it. Google, $GOOGL, had an all time high Price to Earnings Ratio of 235 in 2007. The corrected price per share at that peak was about $69. Today, their PE is about 24 at $2635 per share. A question: where did all that money come from? Hyperinflationary growth in commodity prices will result in hyperinflationary growth in the pyramid schemes built on top, likely from the architectural strength of a pyramid, which is something that Alexandria should have thought more about. But first, the Federal Reserve has a job to do, and they will succeed at failing. If a reader needed more evidence that economies, and money, is one big confidence scheme, the second best Roosevelt felt the need to put the evidence on the back of the dollar bill. Transient is as transient does. Irony must have a shared sense of humour, as the only transitory thing was us. As Central and Private Banks, including the Federal felon x5 JP Morgan $JPM, continuously spouted, and continue to, this notion that inflation is fake - the previous dual impression returns. Either these economists, bankers, and analysts are completely clueless about reality, or they are selling something hard. The megabanks are obvious, they make money on fees, all of whom jacked those fees up in 2021. Now the Central Banks are obvious, they must kill the speculator in an effort to preserve the system, and their reputation. Emerging markets are down. Not just the underlying funds tracking emerging markets. Not just the funds tracking bonds of emerging markets, not just the emerging market's markets themselves, but the actual growth of these developing nations is down and slipping into depression, all before they starve from Russian barbarism carving up the Ukrainian fields. In a natural progression of events, capital outflows from emerging markets returned home to the US. Decreases in major indices and funds tracking these markets were met with composite increases in America's major capital indices. Countries are about to default on their debt, Russia will do it again in less than a three decade span. Italian PPI, or the cost to produce goods, increased over 40% in 2021, 10% over already high analytical expectations. China's PPI grew drastically over CPI all throughout the last two years, and with a new COVID wave baring down, Crouching Depression, Hidden Inflation isn't far from a theatre near you. The banks are falling. Wells Fargo $WFC lost it's corporate debt arm to Computershare, link below because the likelihood of knowing what Computershare is outside of responsible shareholder-cliques is low. Credit Suisse $CS has been exposed in yet another leak revealing bank accounts to Spy Chiefs and Terrorist leaders all over the globe, making it a prime target for the international bank of choice for the CIA. Citigroup $C has $10 billion of admitted Russian debt, while JP Morgan $JPM and Goldman Sachs $GS just beat them out of Russia after selling off everything they owned to hedgefunds, institutions and retail, who would have thought it was a brilliant idea since these same two banks were pushing research notes after research notes on how Russian debt was the greatest bet to make this decade. Listing the full set of nascent crimes by the rest of the collective would be similar to playing Madlibs with the same set of crimes they've been committing for the last century, and on. If there isn't a better representation than Credit Suisse's transitory-CEO breaking every nations COVID regulation to make it to important meetings with government officials on that banks liquidity and stability in that country, oh and also going to tennis tournaments. If respect is something earned, this author proposes it be made as the official inverse of the dollar. www.computershare.com The economy is built on people, and if the people are not the primary concern and benefactor of the economic system, then there will always be a level of inefficiency that runs the risk of causing catastrophic failure. Furthermore, as that system shields the members from reality, via chronic subsidization and repression of emerging technological innovation, it runs the risk of failing. As the failures of the system increase, the ability for that system to maintain, and protect, is hindered. This economic system is built the same way as any other machine; in pieces. As those pieces continue to fail, continue to break, warp, fester with corruption and greed, the chances of catastrophic failure increase. Given an infinite number of possibilities, a reasonable sum of probabilities can be assigned to the likeliest of events. As more and more events transpire, those probabilities are altered. Is the stock market going to crash? Probably.
AMEX:SPYShort
by DoctorFaustus
1
My wave count shows 3850-4000 still possibleI see a possible large ABC correction made up of a 1) expanded flat and now 2) a zig zag. See notes on chart. If this is accurate, then we could still drop as low as 3850. There is a gap on April 5, 2021 that has yet to be filled. The correction I am estimating would make that happen. The other orange line shows where the S&P jumped above the trading channel (green) that started back in the 50's. I have seen price action in the past that likes to retest these levels before finding support. If that works out to be true, then we could see a good rally to test ATHs later this year.
TVC:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
90% chance S&P goes down to 3900-4000I have a custom moving averages trend indicator that creates a metric based on the relationship between price, 20, 50, 100, and 200 day SMA. price > 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 then metric = 1.0 price < 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 then metric = 0.0 otherwise, it will be somewhere in between based on their relative postion (above/below). I color it based on two thresholds (bull=green, bear=red, else blue). Not as important, but the second line is the percentage of the current price relative to the 200 day sma (turns green when it goes below 10%). So, back to the idea. Right now the indicator is blue and sitting right at 0.35. Looking all the way back to 1996, there were 11 times that the indicator reached that level. In 10 out of the 11 times the S&P continued to fall to 0.24 or lower. That tells me that there is a 10/11 = 90% chance the S&P will continue lower. How low, that is a guess, but the most likely level will be around 3900. Why, that aligns to the price the S&P jumped out of the green trading channel that it was contained in since 2002. It also aligns well with the red dotted line that provide support in 1996 and resistance in 2003-2006. At that point I hope we could see a strong rally back up to test ATH, but we could just get a small rally and head on down to the black dotted line that is the center of the channel that connects 1929 and dot com top. Now there is a 10% chance that we rally from this location. I think that is something to keep track off because right now the price is sitting right on top of the green channel. If it can hold, then this would be a good time to retest ATH. Both times price touched this channel top, we say sharp and dramatic rallies. The next week or so will be critical to determine the direction.
TVC:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
2
SPY - Pullback to $400 still possible with H&S patternI still think the Head & Shoulders pattern has not completed and the near term bottom is the $400 level ($390's). That would also complete a nice 0.382 fib retrace of this really long wave since the June 2020 pullback. It would also fill the gap from April 2021. Not to mention, the $400 level is a very strong psychological level, and I expect heavy buying if we get near it. After that, I think we could see a more sustained rally, but also the risk of more sideways for the major part of 2022. I am neither really bullish or bearish at this point. I am currently long on about 60% of my portfolio with some VXX exposure to hedge. Crossing my fingers for a good rally off that $400 level.
AMEX:SPY
by Dr_Roboto
1
New bullish channel for N100 and SP5002 entries (one aggressive and/or one filtered), at the end of the two biggest previous crash... I bought NDX at the closing price (15018), with a stop-loss at -3%, and I advice to put only 20 to 33% of the money to have a risk below 1% (the past weeks were all doom and gloom and we do not know for sure what could happen next...) If you want to download an excel file for what happen to NASDAQ:NDX and AMEX:SPY after one aggressive entry + a second entry on the past 10 years+, download this file: docs.google.com If you like the idea, say it! :)
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Nicolas_Pradel