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IVV

Here lies a 21 months bull trend.Supports broken. Same thing on AMEX:SPY , including his EMA. Even the best indicators got difficult to be read. We clearly are going out of our 15 months channel. Things start to be hazy. I hope you made a lot of money on the past two years because it's becoming trickier. My take home message would be: " There is time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing. ” (Jesse Lauriston Livermore) I can't say if it is going to be a bear trend or if it will stabilize round theses prices. If you don't want to go fishing, you can go short, but we could see drawback until the past levels (round 16500 for NASDAQ:NDX ). Your past indicators will be less accurate, cause the trend is shifting, and the rules of the game are changing. This is time to test your psychology and your risk management strategy. Time to learn the news rules also! Or time to take a beak ;) If you liked this idea I would be happy to see your comments!! :) If you dislike, I would be even happier because the improvement of our strategies is boosted by opposite smart views and opinions!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Nicolas_Pradel
6
Buy the bounce on the EMA 50Since february 2020 a green candle has been seen round 16 times on the top of the EMA50. For 13 times out of 16 SPY took +2.62% in the next 5 days. Sometimes much more on a longer period. In order to trade this pattern the best is to buy at the closing, and to put a close stop loss (something round 0.3%...). This kind of stop loss worked 12 times out of 13... The Risk/Reward is here very high.... I put a 4x leverage, and I bought IBUS500 at 4711 (stop-loss round 4697 (= -0.36%) ). Yesterday SPY bounced on the support, it was also a good idea to play it. Hope you done it. For the Nasdaq100 it widely crossed the support, and then came back. The best option was to wait the bounce, in order to avoid this whipsaw. Some bulls has been caught by their stop-loss. Hope you like this idea, I would be happy to talk about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Nicolas_Pradel
4
S&P to 5300 by end of 2022S&P to 5300 by end of 2022 Did my own version of wave analysis using fib levels on the S&P. Key levels I see are Wave 1 is around 0.618, Wave 3 is 1.0, and Wave 5 ends at 1.786. You can see how well it lines up on the chart. If the pattern holds, then it looks like this wave off the 2009 low should peak at 5300. I laid out a large scale fib starting wave 1 at the great depression and wave 3 in the mid 70's. I see a very good alignment at a 2.0 fib at 5336. 1M timeframe 1W timeframe 1D timeframe
TVC:SPXLong
by Dr_Roboto
4
S&P still respecting the 2009 resistance trend lineUpdate on my previous post. The S&P is still fighting with the resistance setup from 2009. Big pump at the end of today still did not change that. My guess, the big boys trying to suck in as much money as possible to try and pump S&P above this resistance. A 2-3% pump in something like 30 minutes was not driven by retail investors. Question is will retail jump in to get a breakout or will the big boys dump it by the end of the week? The setup looks pretty bullish to me, but need some kind of breakout to really make me choose to go more in or not. 2h 1W
AMEX:SPYLong
by Dr_Roboto
7
S&P 500 bouncing off 2009 resistance lineS&P at the top of it trading channel bouncing off of the resistance line. This line so far has provided a clear limit for the S&P, and you can see where it has done this several times before. So far it has always ended in a sizeable correction. If you look at the 2014 range, you can see that it effectively hit this line 5 times before a major correction. That means this could continue along for several months, with possible several opportunities to buy sizeable pullbacks and clearly places to take profit. 1W 1D 4h
AMEX:SPYLong
by Dr_Roboto
5
S&P 500 bull run coming to an end; risk-reward is all riskS&P 500 bull run coming to an end with the risk-reward being all risk A look at the 1W timeframe. If the pattern holds since 2009, then the S&P is due for a sizeable correction in the coming months. As you can see in the chart, every time it touches the top of the blue channel it ultimately ends up making a correction of 15-20% back to the middle of the channel. The recent ATH touched the blue channel perfectly and no you can see that it has also broken down out of the rising wedge, just like the previous times. If we take a look at the indicators, then you can see that the cRSI is now lower than any point in the rally since April 2020. The MACD is also showing a clear cross on August 30th and is showing a clear down trend with the most distance between the signal and MACD since April. It is possible to see a retest of the ATH (see April 2011 and most of 2015), but it looks like the S&P's historic bull run is coming to an end. Thus by my reasoning, the is a lot more downside risk then there is upside reward. 1w 1d
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Dr_Roboto
4
S&P 500 losing support of rising wedgeThe S&P looks like it lost support of the rising wedge pattern it formed since last year. You can see that it broken down below last week and then made a retest. It looks now like the support line has turned to resistance, which is bearish. It looks like the correction from the ATH may not be done yet and there is further downside. It will be confirmed once the S&P breaks below the low of last week. 4h Question that still remains is will it break the 100 day SMA. It is hovering just above it. Look to see if there is a bounce from here and an attempt to regain the rising wedge.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Dr_Roboto
S&P simple analysis - Market at major decision pointHere is a simple analysis using 4 moving averages and a regression channel start on March 24, 2020. VWMA 20 days (shown as a band with SMA 20 in the middle), SMA 50, 100, and 200 days. The S&P is at a make or break moment. It broke below the regression channel on Monday and is hang on the edge of it today. You can also see that it found support on the 100 day SMA, but is being held down by both the 20 and 50 day. IMO, next week will likely decide the market direction. It can either break above the 20 and 50 to solidly regain the up channel, or it will correct down further. It could go sideways for a while, but by next Friday I hope it will be come clear. There is a large gap at the $400 level that has yet to be filled. It will be interesting to see if that comes into play if the S&P breaks to the down side. However, I would not be surprise if it breaks to the up side and tests the ATH around the middle of the channel.
AMEX:IVV
by Dr_Roboto
2
S&P 500 struggling to escape down channel but has a chanceS&P still clearly inside the regression down channel off the Sept 3 ATH. The good news is that it made a higher high today, but right now it looks like it is forming a bearish rising wedge pattern. That pattern also seems to align with closing the gap from Monday and the resistance line formed off the recent peaks. It is also the 1.236 fib level off Tuesday rally. Tomorrow will tell us a lot. I am looking for a repeat of this morning with selling overnight with an early morning rally to try and break free of the wedge and ultimately the down channel. If it is able to break through the gap and resistance line, then the next key resistance will be the black trend line representing the bottom of the rising wedge of the COVID rally. I would give this a 50/50 chance as a retest of the support turned resistance is a very common behavior. If the black trend line holds as resistance, then I am guessing there is a good chance that a bigger correction down to the 4000 level to fill the gap from April is possible. That would be a 12% correction of the ATH, which is what most of the talking heads are saying. If it can close tomorrow of Friday above the trend line, then it would seem the bull rally is back in full swing.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
7
S&P 500 - Evergrande the pin that popped the bubble?We all know that the markets has been in a bubble for a while, but the questions has always been what the pin would be. Could the Evergrande be that pin? The idea of a 2008 crash like crash in China clearly has the market spooked on top of COVID, inflation, and Fed tapering. This timing also perfectly coincides with the S&P touching off the top of its 2009 trading channel. Major support is almost 15% lower from recent highs in the 3800-4000 range. 1W 1D 4h
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
S&P 500 firmly back in 2009 rising wedge (5300-5600 peak)All of the fiscal stimulus has allowed the S&P to firmly regain the rising wedge pattern it started way back in 2009. As long as the government keeps the printing presses flowing and interest rates low, it looks like this rally could go at least to 5300 (another 20% or so), maybe even 5600-5700. It is amazing when you look at like this. Investing during the COVID crash was really once in a life time opportunity. Great time to be a bull. Not so much for the bears.
TVC:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
2