IVV
S&P 500 - How high can it go?It is just an amazing rally since last year when you look at it from this perspective. What rational person would have predicted that the largest worldwide crisis in a century would lead to one of the largest market rallies in history? The crazy part is that it does not look like it is going to stop any time soon. How much higher can it really go?
1M
1W
1D
S&P 500 sitting on top of rising wedge patternToday it is sitting right on top of the rising wedge pattern formed from the past years historic rally. Now the question is will it find support and continue to rocket it up or will it break down through the wedge pattern?
4h
S&P 500 - Correction or pullback possible?This recent strong rally looks a lot like the one in August to me. Both the cRSI and PMO seem to be indicating that some level of pull back is inbound.
1D
2h
S&P 500 - How much higher can it go?Some of my core TA that I follow on the 1W. The S&P is way above the regression channel and making a mockery of the 100 and 200 SMA. The RSI was starting to show what looked like a correction but is now showing what looks like a rebound on the weekly. The PMO however looks to be running out of steam and is starting to pinch and switch from green to red. Currently the fib level is way up there off the 2009 low. It "looks" like the S&P is way overextended and running out of steam, but I said that months ago. So, make your own conclusions.
1W close up
1D with 21 and 50 day SMA
4h
Hope it helps and good luck.
S&P500 - Symmetrical triangle If the US 10 yr treasury rate falls, the breakout will be upward breakout.
S&P 500 - Make or Break day?Sitting right on the bottom of the intersection of the 2019 and 2020 rising wedge patterns, and it is just touched the resistance line of the correction's regression channel. It looks like it has to choose up or down today or tomorrow at the latest.
S&P 500 megaphone pattern rooted at trend line from 2000Don't know how or why, but the pattern lines up perfect.
Note the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) on the 1W
S&P 500 - Seriously how much higher can this bubble go?All the articles on the web from all the big networks and talking heads are still calling for a great year in the stock market based on stimulus and what is expected to be a surging consumer demand. Just look at this chart and think about that for a moment. I am not saying it can't be true. I'm just saying admire the bubble that is the S&P and what it means to go even higher. If this does not bring back memories of the dot com bubble I am not sure what will.
Yes, I know that most of those same talking heads still do not think we are in a bubble. I also know that bubbles don't really have an obvious threshold you cross to become one. The definition is generally: stock costs a lot more than it’s worth. In this debt based economy that we built since 2009, I am not sure how you value a stock's price relative to a companies value. I do know that trillions of dollars of investment money need a home and as long as the FED forces interest rates low to help support even more debt, then you have to assume stock prices can still go up.
Black line is the 200 day sma.
21, 50, 100, and 200 day sma
Any how, hope you enjoy the chart.
Cheers.
S&P 500 - At the tipping point? Another solid day in the red Wednesday for the S&P. It is now sitting right on the support line of the rising wedge. What will tomorrow bring: A bounce or further fall?
I find it interesting that all this FOMO about stocks going up the past year was because the economy will rebound easily given all the stimulus and thus stock prices were forward looking and worth the price. The worry now seems to be that the economy may rebound so strong that bonds are rallying which in turn is causing big money to move out of risky stocks that are already at high PE ratios.
S&P 500 - Sept 16, 2020 drop all over again?Pattern looks very similar. Let's see if we get a move up or down tomorrow to validate.
And because I have a million different ideas on these charts.
And one more
S&P 500 - Should I go all in? What do you think?Okay, now that I got your attention. Here is my big picture view of the the S&P 500 over the last few years. The one thing that I have always had in the back of my mind was the rally since March 2020 was just an attempt to regain the 2019 rising wedge. It is very interesting that it looks that way by the patterns I drew. I always felt the crash in March 2020 was way out of scale and that the rally was just as equally out of scale. Was the market well on its way to reaching this point even without the covid crash and rally?
Any way, back to my headline. The RSI and PMO are not showing positive signs for the market. Each of them on the weekly are rolling over. The price pattern over the last month or so is also not encouraging as it too is looking kind of flat and rolled over. Maybe this Ponzi scheme of a market is about to take some serious profit or like the last year will just continue to climb on irrational exuberance.
Enjoy and hope it helps.
Why trading during regular hours is so frustratingI have brought this up a few times of the last year, but today was just another example. In the chart you can see that of the 2% gain so far today, about 1.5% of that came during aftermarket and premarket hours. I did an analysis way back in June or so last year that showed something like 75% of all major market moves happen during off hours. Most regular hours are small moves up (0.25-1%) like today or mostly chop.
Note sure how helpful this is, but IMO it just goes to show that retail traders are really just riding the coat tales of the big institutions.
S&P500 daily- Still within Rising wedge if using non-log chart.S&P500 daily- Still within Rising wedge if using non-log chart.
Of course, on the Log chart, the S&P500 has already broken support line. However, I think from history, the market tends to favor the non-log chart in most cases.
S&P 500 closes week under its November 5th channel Not a great sign that the S&P closed the week under the main channel that it has been in since the beginning of November. Now, it was below this channel during the big dip at the end of Jan, so take that with a grain of salt. But twice in a month can't be a good sign.
The good news is that it is still inside the regression channel.
Some possible rising wedge patterns to watch.
S&P 500 trend lines and ending patternsJust something I noticed today. Drew up what look like to be the key trend lines for the rallies over the last few years. I also noticed that each rally had a similar wave pattern throughout the middle (12345), a long almost pull back free middle, and then a WXZ with 1.5 fib ext at the end. Now, it is still too early to know if that pattern will hold now, but this down week does lend some credence to the idea.
Note that this in on the Vanguard S&P ETF, so the numbers are not perfectly aligned with the SPX or SPY.
2018
2019
2020
2021 at 4h
Hope it helps.
S&P 500 - showing an interesting megaphone like patternSee the blue pattern that looks like a megaphone. Interesting that it is make higher highs but the pull backs are also getting bigger.
S&P 500 rising wedge patterns since March 2020Just a basic update on my rising wedge patterns. Note so far today it was a test of the support line of the current wedge. If this wedge pattern is right, then we S&P is pretty much out of room for now and we should see a pull back soon.
The effect of the dollar on the S&P 500The value of the dollar can make a major impact on the value of the stock market. As a rough base line DXY is around 100 when everything is going well for the dollar (not too strong or weak). I simply scaled SPX by DXY/100 (will be 1.0 when DXY = 100). What you get is a a normalized version of the SPX that minimizes the effect of the dollar. IMO, what seems to happen is that the Fed via QE (clearly other things can affect the dollar but mostly interest rates and money printing) can reduce the value of the dollar, which in turn artificially inflates asset prices. The mechanisms are complex, but the results is the same. I think we could all agree that this version of the S&P looks a lot more realistic.
www.investopedia.com
S&P 500 - Rising Wedge and Fan PatternsJust trying to take a look at the bigger picture today. I see a nice rising wedge pattern off the March 2020 low. I also see a fan pattern that does a great job of defining both the important low and high peaks since 2017.
4h lcose up
motive wave fib levels
Just in case this week is the end of motive wave 3, we could see a max pull back to around 0.382.
