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S&P 500 - Elliott Wave Count (Closing in on end of wave 3?)This is my latest and best attempt at an Elliott wave count for the S&P. Rather than just guess at waves, I prefer to use fib levels to help identify them. Assuming that I have wave 1 correct, then I see a wave 3 with impulse that is closing in on it final subwave 5. That hopefully should bring us to a solid correction for a wave 4 before making a long push for wave 5. As always with Elliott Waves, they are more art than science, especially so in a such a "manipulated" market that has risen higher and faster than any other rally on record. Hope it helps and good luck. Close up with Heikin Ashi Fib levels used for waves.
AMEX:IVV
by Dr_Roboto
S&P 500 - How much higher can it go?Some of my core TA that I follow on the 1W. The S&P is way above the regression channel and making a mockery of the 100 and 200 SMA. The RSI was starting to show what looked like a correction but is now showing what looks like a rebound on the weekly. The PMO however looks to be running out of steam and is starting to pinch and switch from green to red. Currently the fib level is way up there off the 2009 low. It "looks" like the S&P is way overextended and running out of steam, but I said that months ago. So, make your own conclusions. 1W close up 1D with 21 and 50 day SMA 4h Hope it helps and good luck.
AMEX:SPY
by Dr_Roboto
7
S&P 500 - Seriously how much higher can this bubble go?All the articles on the web from all the big networks and talking heads are still calling for a great year in the stock market based on stimulus and what is expected to be a surging consumer demand. Just look at this chart and think about that for a moment. I am not saying it can't be true. I'm just saying admire the bubble that is the S&P and what it means to go even higher. If this does not bring back memories of the dot com bubble I am not sure what will. Yes, I know that most of those same talking heads still do not think we are in a bubble. I also know that bubbles don't really have an obvious threshold you cross to become one. The definition is generally: stock costs a lot more than it’s worth. In this debt based economy that we built since 2009, I am not sure how you value a stock's price relative to a companies value. I do know that trillions of dollars of investment money need a home and as long as the FED forces interest rates low to help support even more debt, then you have to assume stock prices can still go up. Black line is the 200 day sma. 21, 50, 100, and 200 day sma Any how, hope you enjoy the chart. Cheers.
SP:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
1
S&P 500 - At the tipping point? Another solid day in the red Wednesday for the S&P. It is now sitting right on the support line of the rising wedge. What will tomorrow bring: A bounce or further fall? I find it interesting that all this FOMO about stocks going up the past year was because the economy will rebound easily given all the stimulus and thus stock prices were forward looking and worth the price. The worry now seems to be that the economy may rebound so strong that bonds are rallying which in turn is causing big money to move out of risky stocks that are already at high PE ratios.
U
by Dr_Roboto
S&P 500 - Should I go all in? What do you think?Okay, now that I got your attention. Here is my big picture view of the the S&P 500 over the last few years. The one thing that I have always had in the back of my mind was the rally since March 2020 was just an attempt to regain the 2019 rising wedge. It is very interesting that it looks that way by the patterns I drew. I always felt the crash in March 2020 was way out of scale and that the rally was just as equally out of scale. Was the market well on its way to reaching this point even without the covid crash and rally? Any way, back to my headline. The RSI and PMO are not showing positive signs for the market. Each of them on the weekly are rolling over. The price pattern over the last month or so is also not encouraging as it too is looking kind of flat and rolled over. Maybe this Ponzi scheme of a market is about to take some serious profit or like the last year will just continue to climb on irrational exuberance. Enjoy and hope it helps.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
5
Why trading during regular hours is so frustratingI have brought this up a few times of the last year, but today was just another example. In the chart you can see that of the 2% gain so far today, about 1.5% of that came during aftermarket and premarket hours. I did an analysis way back in June or so last year that showed something like 75% of all major market moves happen during off hours. Most regular hours are small moves up (0.25-1%) like today or mostly chop. Note sure how helpful this is, but IMO it just goes to show that retail traders are really just riding the coat tales of the big institutions.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
11
S&P 500 trend lines and ending patternsJust something I noticed today. Drew up what look like to be the key trend lines for the rallies over the last few years. I also noticed that each rally had a similar wave pattern throughout the middle (12345), a long almost pull back free middle, and then a WXZ with 1.5 fib ext at the end. Now, it is still too early to know if that pattern will hold now, but this down week does lend some credence to the idea. Note that this in on the Vanguard S&P ETF, so the numbers are not perfectly aligned with the SPX or SPY. 2018 2019 2020 2021 at 4h Hope it helps.
AMEX:VOO
by Dr_Roboto
The effect of the dollar on the S&P 500The value of the dollar can make a major impact on the value of the stock market. As a rough base line DXY is around 100 when everything is going well for the dollar (not too strong or weak). I simply scaled SPX by DXY/100 (will be 1.0 when DXY = 100). What you get is a a normalized version of the SPX that minimizes the effect of the dollar. IMO, what seems to happen is that the Fed via QE (clearly other things can affect the dollar but mostly interest rates and money printing) can reduce the value of the dollar, which in turn artificially inflates asset prices. The mechanisms are complex, but the results is the same. I think we could all agree that this version of the S&P looks a lot more realistic. www.investopedia.com
SP:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
3