Get started

IVV

S&P 500 Elliott Waves (Log Scale) sitting at 3.0 fib extHere is my wave analysis on the log scale. Note that we are sitting just a hair above the 3.0 fib ext. Wave 5 rules are (3 options): 1) Inverse 123.6 – 161.8% retracement of wave 4 --> Already passed that at $2,663 2) Equal to wave 1 --> Around $6,636 in 2025 3) 61.8% of wave 1-3 --> Around $20,701 in 2033 Another way I try to compute Wave 4 is based on wave 3 and standard ratio of wave 3 = 1.618 and wave 5 = 2.0. Wave 3 = 2.618 Ratio = 2.618/1.618 = 1.618 Wave 5 guess = 2.0*1.618 = 3.236 --> This comes out right around the scale of Wave 1 It is normal to over shoot the fibs a little. We are just at the price overshoot of wave 3. A little more to go if you use %.
SP:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
1
S&P 500 - Dot Com vs Today - You decidedI am not saying we are in for a major correction right now, but the similarities to the dot com bubble are strikingly similar. Note that I just used the wave tool for the counting and they may not be the exact Elliott waves. There is still room to rally to match the dot com bubbles 1.3 fib ext. Given the irrational exuberance in this market we could hit 1.5 or 1.618. One thing I do know, is that when it does finally hit the top it is a long way down.
SP:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
10
S&P another premarket pump, running out of room or just startingI am running out of TA at this point. It is closing in on the end of my two wedge patterns and is clearly above the 1.236 fib ext. I personally can't tell if this is the last hurrah for this market and it is trying to squeeze every last penny out of the retail investors, or the FOMO provided by the new breed of irrational, risk-on "Robinhood" investor has fundamentally changed the market for now. If it breaks above these last lines of resistance, then all that is left is the trading channel a larger wedge that goes up to around 4200.
U
by Dr_Roboto
1
S&P 500 back above 1.236(3686) fib & all other resistance linesSo much for that birthday dump I bet on yesterday. I got stopped out of my VXX and SQQQ by the end of the day yesterday. Well the S&P is back at it with another overnight pump and gap up this morning. This time it has broken the 1.236(3686) fib level from Feb high and the March low. It has also found itself above all the resistance lines that I have. The only good news for bears is that it is not an ATH, yet. The cRSI is looking overbought on all time frames, but past history shows that there is still more room to go. The NASDAQ was up all day and overnight also. So much for rotating out of tech and into the S&P on vaccine and stimulus. The bulls seem to be in full risk on mode in all indices. This bear is starting to run out of hope, but bears never say die. Still some tiny glimmer of hope this is just the market topping and the bulls putting up a good fight. Thursday is usually the big sell off day for the S&P, lets see what happens today and tomorrow.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
2
S&P 500 Waves - Wave 5 or Wave B??? Lots of details inside.I have reviewed all of my Elliott Wave theory documentation and took another look at the S&P 500. Not that most of you would be surprised, but the S&P is struggling with its identity. Is it a motive Wave 5 or a large corrective Wave B? I am going to lay out the case for both arguments. I prefer to always use fib level to help define my wave rather than guessing based on look. I also find the use of trend lines to be very helpful. Looking at the basics you can see: 1) A nice up channel based on the 2002-2008 rally, which by the way was a large corrective wave B of the dot com bubble (wow, I know). Corrective wave Bs can be up to 1.236*Wave A (the dot com crash). 2) Starting in 2009 another set of clear up channels driven by the rally after the housing market crash. 3) An emerging down channel starting 2017. The mean of that channel helped define the top in Feb. Note how the market did a test above this level before correcting. Moving that mean to the next clear set of wave tops brings the channel to this past week's top. 4) Take note of that the large correction in Dec 2018 bounced off the bottom of the channel, but the correction in 2020 clearly broke it. Okay, now for the wave counting. I use a lot of info from this website: elliottwave-forecast.com Guidelines • Wave 2 can’t retrace more than the beginning of wave 1 • Wave 3 can not be the shortest wave of the three impulse waves, namely wave 1, 3, and 5 • Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1 • Wave 5 needs to end with momentum divergence Fibonacci Ratio Relationship • Wave 2 is 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of wave 1 • Wave 3 is 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, or 323.6% of wave 1-2 • Wave 4 is 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3 but no more than 50% • There are three different ways to measure wave 5. First, wave 5 is inverse 123.6 – 161.8% retracement of wave 4. Second, wave 5 is equal to wave 1. Third, wave 5 is 61.8% of wave 1-3 Wave Personalities (subjective so you need to apply cautiously). • Wave 1: In Elliott Wave Theory, wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts. • Wave 2: In Elliott Wave Theory, wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and “the crowd” haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern • Wave 3: In Elliott Wave Theory, wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to “get in on a pullback” will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three’s midpoint, “the crowd” will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1. Wave 3 rally picks up steam and takes the top of Wave 1. As soon as the Wave 1 high is exceeded, the stops are taken out. Depending on the number of stops, gaps are left open. Gaps are a good indication of a Wave 3 in progress. After taking the stops out, the Wave 3 rally has caught the attention of traders • At the end of wave 4, more buying sets in and prices start to rally again. Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three. Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend. • Wave 5: In Elliott Wave Theory, wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received). The wave 5 lacks huge enthusiasm and strength found in the wave 3 rally. Wave 5 advance is caused by a small group of traders. Although the prices make a new high above the top of wave 3, the rate of power or strength inside wave 5 advance is very small when compared to wave 3 advance. The challenge here is trying to determine if Wave 4 happened in Dec 2018 or it was the drop in Feb 2020. I have laid out both in this chart. I am focused on these rules. • Wave 4 is 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3 but no more than 50% • There are three different ways to measure wave 5. a) wave 5 is inverse 123.6 – 161.8% retracement of wave 4. b) wave 5 is equal to wave 1. c) wave 5 is 61.8% of wave 1-3 First theory: Wave 4 occurred in 2018 and wave 5 end in Feb 2020. In this scenario wave 4 is less than 39.2% of wave 3. Wave 5 is just a little more than 1.618 of wave 4. Also note that on the 1M timeframe wave 5 ended with divergence (bear). Now for this to be true than we are currently in Wave B. and the rule for a wave B is that it cannot be greater than 1.236*wave A. And that is right where we stand today. Second Theory: Wave 4 occurred during the 2020 March low. In this scenario wave 4 goes just beyond 50% of wave 3. Does this mean it broke the Wave 4 rule? Or, since it only lasted about one day does it just count as a test and that is okay? However, the low was very much below the support line and was under the support for 5 days. That is more than a test IMO, but on the scale from 2009 to this point it is pretty small amount of time. Last thing to determine is wave 5 which by this theory we are still in. The rule here is 123.6%-161.8% of wave 4. That would put us at a max in the 4200 range. Well, I guess that is it. Most of the details are in the charts. Hope it helps.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
6
S&P 500 - I am running out of ideasI am running out of ideas for what the market is doing. Here is my latest attempt. The S&P is under it main up channel from March and trying to get back in, but there is no volume and commitment to do so right now. All my experience and research tells me that this thing is topping and ready for a correction. I really feel that this is just a massive corrective Wave B and what we are seeing now is just a FOMO top to it. However, I can also find clear evidence and analysis that says this thing can go to 4000-4300 by June (see my wave ideas). The challenge is that I can find TA that supports both theories. What seems to be happening is the market is running purely on FOMO and MOMO and all fundamentals are not just out the window but blew away in the wind. The market looks like it may continue this slow drift up until some obvious news forces the market one way or the other. Good luck traders. Hopefully you have made you bets one way or the other. I am still sitting out until I get a clear sign. Maybe this???
AMEX:SPY
by Dr_Roboto
10
S&P 500 bull rally regression trend analysis 1990-2020If you follow my ideas then you know that I really believe in regression trend analysis. The more I use it the more it just makes things make sense. I have said this several times, but I believe in it because linear regression (data fitting and prediction) is the easiest idea to understand for humans and the easiest for to implement in trading algorithms. All rallies generally follow a linear regression channel bouncing off the top for a correction and bounce off the bottom for rallies. So what? Well, I thought it would be interesting to plot linear regressions for each of the major rallies since the dot com bubble. The end result is pretty interesting. I did not show the deviation bounds as it makes it too hard to read. The line you see is the linear model fit to the data (y=mx+b). This is not conclusive on if this irrational rally will contiune, but given how many lines interest in one location is a good hint that this major rally from the 1990's is getting close to its end, IMO. Now, look at what happens when I zoom in. I did not manipulate these lines at all. All lines come directly from the built in regression tool. If that is not some cosmic sign for a top I don't know what is! I did add a black regression line in. I added dots to define where I started and ended. For that line my assumption is the extra "drop" in March was a test (see how my dot stops at the regression line and the drop goes past) and the other dot is where the rally should have stopped but FOMO took it higher.
SP:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
S&P 500 - Did the bulls win???The market closed at an ATH and above every resistance line that I had. - 1.236 fib from Sept top - Check! - 1.236 fib from Feb top - Check! - Above rising wedge - Check! - Outside the down channel off the Sept top - Check! - Above the major resistance line from the Feb top and the Sept top - Check! As a bear, I am not 100% ready to through in the towl, but it looks like the S&P is ready to go full bubble. Especially if you combine this with my recent wave analysis of the NASDAQ with a target of 14,000. We still need the S&P to follow through next week with a retest of the down channel as support, so there is still hope for the bears. Have a good weekend. See you Monday morning for another round. Da bears! Close up At this scale it does not look too bad for the bears. A little cleaner version
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
7