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S&P 500 still trapped - breakout soon?S&P 500 has been trapped by several trend lines and inside a down channel since its blow off top. It still can't seem to create enough bullish momentum to break above the trend line, but not enough bearish pressure to break it down. It is sitting right on the support line of the up channel from March. As the edge of the channel approaches will that be enough to force it one way of the other? A break up can take us back near or to the ATH for a double top. A break down should signal a much more correction is close. Excuse all of the lines.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
S&P 500 failed breakout and riding down trend lineShould have guessed that the morning rally in premarket was a setup. Overnight the market was down but around 8:30-10 it put in a rally. Instead of a breakout we corrected and riding down the trend line formed by the recent tops in the correction. We have been riding the correction coattails of that since. I guess the true jobs numbers and weakness of the economy are slowly sinking in and this bull rally is way up in the no support zone. Not sure what this means for the next few days. It is normal to get a retest of the ATH for a double top, but the S&P is so overextended that it may just be more down. I am still calling for a near term low around 3050 (back to June support area).
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
2
S&P 500 waves - double top 3525 and then bottom 3050???More of my wave analysis. If I had to guess, I would say we just finished Wave A and started Wave B this morning. Looks like we just complete subwave 1 of 3 towards a double top. The give away is the push to a 2.1 fib extension instead of a 1.3 or 1.4 like the last few days. We are about to see a wave 2 down to the support and then a strong push for wave 3 back to resistance (1.7 to 2.0 ext). The double top at 3525 aligns with the resistance trend line from 2009 through March peak (pink line). I then laid out the Wave A fib levels at that top of wave B. A zig zag correction can go all the way down to 1.618 fib. This is the same setup as the March drop. It also lines up with the standard minimal correction of 0.618 retrace of the wave off the March low. That takes us down to 3050. Right where it felt like this rally should have stopped in the first place. All the waves line up. Interesting to see if it works out. If I am wrong and this rally breaks above the 2009 resistance line and holds, then get ready for some major FOMO to 4000. Hope this helps and good luck
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
6
S&P500 daily- Ascending Broadening Wedge. S&P500 daily- Ascending Broadening Wedge- ABW (with three contact points on either side of the ABW). ABW tend to not appear during bear markets, most often seen in bull markets with downward breakouts. Breakout is 52% of the times downwards. Also, two other critcal points- 1) The Fib retracement 61.8% seems to soon be either support of resistance. 2) 3000 on the SP500 is the 200-day moving average. 'A flat 200-day Moving average is King' Oliver Velez. The 200-day SMA is now flat. Being above consistently is bullish. Soon, we will all know, whether this a durable bull breakout or a flop.
SP:SPX
by platinum_growth