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SPY Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-15AMEX:SPY SPY Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-15) Below is an integrated view of the models’ findings: ───────────────────────────── SUMMARY OF MODEL KEY POINTS • Grok/xAI noted that on very short timeframes the price is a bit below key 5‑minute EMAs and near lower Bollinger Bands—with RSI and MACD giving mixed signals—but on the daily chart some bullish features (price above the 10‑EMA, a slight MACD bullish grace, and a max pain level at $549) hint at a potential mean reversion. Their “if forced” ramp suggested a call at the $549 strike, though overall confidence was low (≈55%). • Gemini/Google’s report highlighted conflicting technical readings – the M5 setup looked bearish while the daily chart showed a little bullishness. Their integration of high but falling VIX and options open‑interest levels led to an overall neutral/unclear reading. Their recommendation was to refrain from entering a directional trade at open. • Llama/Meta leaned toward a moderately bearish reading based on the short‐term indicators (price below key EMAs, bearish MACD on both charts) despite some daily support. They specifically recommended buying the $537 put option (even though the premium is higher than the “ideal” $0.30–$0.60 range) with a target profit roughly 50% above the cost and a stop when SPY breaches an upper resistance level—backed by a 70% confidence level. • DeepSeek also synthesized mixed timeframes – pointing out that while the market holds some daily support, the intraday picture is muddled by technical conflict, expensive premium costs for the moves required, and time decay factors. Their view was to wait rather than initiate a new position. ───────────────────────────── 2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT • Agreement: All reports recognize that SPY (about $537.61) is trading near key short‑term support levels with significant options OI clustering. The falling VIX is universally noted as a positive sign for reducing fear even though overall volatility remains high. • Disagreement:  – Grok’s report and to some extent the daily charts hint at a slight bias to the upside (supported by max pain at $549), suggesting a potential call wing trade.  – In contrast, Llama/Meta’s analysis and the very short‐term indicators (M5, lower Bollinger band, bearish MACD) point toward a bearish bias, recommending a put trade.  – Both Gemini/Google and DeepSeek, however, find the technical signals too mixed to have high confidence in initiating any naked single‑leg weekly option trade at open. ───────────────────────────── 3. CLEAR CONCLUSION • Overall Market Direction Consensus:  The models collectively paint a picture of uncertainty. There is no clear, high‑conviction directional bias at the open. The short‑term (intraday) technicals lean bearish or at best neutral, while the daily chart and max pain argument hint at a potential slight mean reversion. Given these conflicting signals, the overall market direction remains neutral/unclear. • Recommended Trade:  Based on the clash in opinions—only one model (Llama/Meta) would go short (with puts) while two models (Grok/xAI and Llama/Meta) suggest if forced a trade—and given that the majority (Gemini/Google and DeepSeek) advise against trading in the current conditions, the consensus is not to enter a new weekly options position at the market open. – Strategy: Single‐leg, naked options (calls or puts)  – Expiration: Weekly options only (expiry April 17, 2025)  – Premium: Trading ideal premium range is $0.30–$0.60, but neither candidate in the call nor put space meets all our criteria with high conviction  – Entry Timing: At open would be the plan if a trade were to be placed  – Confidence: Overall confidence in any trade is low (<60%) • Key Risks and Considerations:  – The short‑term technical indicators (lower EMAs, bearish M5 MACD, tight Bollinger bands) could trigger a whipsaw if SPY moves sideways or reverses abruptly.  – The high but falling VIX signals that although volatility is subsiding, levels remain elevated.  – Time decay (theta) on weekly options is significant at the open, and the probability of a strong directional move is diminished without further confirmation during the session.  – Conflicting signals between daily trend (some bullish pointers) and intraday behavior reduce the reliability of a directional play. ───────────────────────────── 4. FINAL RECOMMENDATION Given the model consensus with mixed and conflicting signals, the recommendation is to NOT trade weekly SPY options at market open today. ───────────────────────────── TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": null, "direction": null, "strike": null, "expiry": null, "confidence": null, "profit_target": null, "stop_loss": null, "size": null, "entry_price": null, "entry_timing": null } Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
AMEX:SPY
by henryzhang99
Quantum's IWM Trading Guide 4/8/25IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) - Sector: Broad Small-Cap ETF (Russell 2000) Sentiment: --Bearish (softening). Pre-market put volume eased, RSI 44 up from 42, X posts overnight hint at an oversold bounce despite tariff fears, suggesting a less dire tone. Tariff Impact: --Moderate. Industrials/financials exposure persists. News/Catalysts: --Consumer Credit (April 8) could spark a relief rally if strong; X posts on tariff delays offer faint hope, though bearish bias lingers. Technical Setup -Weekly Chart: ---HVN above as resistance, weekly low as support. ---Downtrend (8-week EMA < 13-week < 48-week). ---RSI 44 (less weak), MACD below signal (histogram narrowing) ---Bollinger Bands near lower band, ---Donchian Channels below midline, ---Williams %R -70 (easing from -74). -One-Hour Chart: ---Support at yesterday’s low, resistance at midday high, weekly confluence. ---RSI 42 (up from 40), ---MACD below signal (histogram less negative), ---Bollinger Bands near lower band, ---Donchian Channels below midline, ---Williams %R -72 (up from -76). -10-Minute Chart: ---Pre-market bounce attempt, 8/13/48 EMAs flat (less steep), ---RSI 42 (up from 38), ---MACD flat near zero. Options Data: ---GEX: Bearish (softening)—pinning pressure eased slightly overnight. ---DEX: Bearish (softening)—put delta leads but less aggressively. ---IV: Moderate—25–30% vs. 20–25% norm, steady volatility. ---OI: Put-heavy—high OI below close persists. ---Directional Bias: Bearish (softening). GEX’s reduced pinning suggests less dealer-driven downside, DEX’s put delta bias weakens, moderate IV supports some volatility but not extreme moves, and put-heavy OI anchors prices lower—still bearish but with less conviction. Sympathy Plays: --TNA (Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X): Falls 3x if IWM dumps, rises if IWM rebounds. --TZA (Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X): Gains if IWM dumps, fades if IWM rallies. --Opposite Mover: IWM dumps → TZA rallies; IWM rallies → TNA surges. Sector Positioning with RRG: --Sector: Broad Small-Cap ETF (Russell 2000). --RRG Position: Lagging Quadrant. Tariff/rate drag persists. Top 5 Movers (Russell 2000): SMCI (+2%), MARA (+1.5%), RIOT (+1%), CVNA (+0.8%), PLUG (+0.5%). Bottom 5 Movers (Russell 2000): AMC (-3.5%), RKT (-3%), UPWK (-2.5%), ZETA (-2%), RUN (-1.8%).
AMEX:IWM
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Quantum's Premium IWM Weekly OutlookSentiment Overall Sentiment: Bearish with potential for reversal. Options Activity: Recent data shows elevated put volume over calls (e.g., 8 puts Ascending Triangle DEX suggests a bearish directional bias. Posts on X indicate traders are eyeing short setups, reinforcing this sentiment. 1 OTM Premiums: 0DTE (April 7 expiration): Call: $182 strike, premium $1.20 (moderate IV, ~35%). Put: $180 strike, premium $1.35 (moderate IV, ~35%). Weekly (April 11 expiration): Call: $182 strike, premium $1.45 (moderate IV, ~32%). Put: $180 strike, premium $1.40 (moderate IV, ~32%). Notes: Premiums are kept under $1.50 for cost efficiency in 0DTE and weekly trades. IV levels are moderate, reflecting recent volatility spikes but not extreme conditions, making these contracts attractive for short-term plays. Technical Indicators: Weekly EMAs (8/13/48): The 8-week EMA ($198.50) is below the 13-week ($202.10) and 48-week ($208.30), confirming a downtrend. RSI (14-week): 32, nearing oversold territory, hinting at a possible bounce. Market Context: Small-cap stocks like IWM have been under pressure due to tariff fears and a hawkish Fed stance. However, oversold conditions and seasonal strength in April could signal a relief rally. Potential: Continuation of the downtrend is likely unless a catalyst reverses sentiment, but a short-term bounce to $185–$190 is plausible given oversold readings. Tariff Impact Exposure: Moderate to severe. Analysis: IWM tracks the Russell 2000, comprising small-cap U.S. companies, many of which are domestically focused (e.g., manufacturing, retail). A 10% universal tariff, 25% on Canada/Mexico, or 46% on Vietnam could raise input costs for these firms, squeezing margins. Sectors like industrials (20% of IWM) and consumer discretionary (15%) are particularly vulnerable. However, tariff impact may be overstated—rising interest rates and a strong dollar are likely stronger drivers of recent weakness. Critically, the narrative around tariffs often amplifies fear beyond fundamentals, offering contrarian opportunities if panic subsides. News/Catalysts Recent News: Trump’s tariff rhetoric intensified last week, with small-caps hit hardest (IWM down 9.5% in 1M). The Fed’s hawkish December stance continues to weigh on risk assets. Upcoming Events: April 8: Consumer Credit data release—could signal consumer health, critical for small-cap earnings. Mid-week: Potential tariff policy updates—speculative but impactful. Speculative Catalysts: X posts highlight short interest in IWM and oversold conditions, suggesting a squeeze potential. A surprise Fed pivot or tariff rollback could spark a massive rally. Alignment: Small-caps are sensitive to economic data and policy shifts, making IWM a prime candidate for volatility-driven moves. Technical Setup Weekly Chart: Key Levels: High Volume Node (HVN): $195–$199 (prior support, now resistance). Monthly Open: $199.78 (resistance). Weekly Low: $176.67 (support). Trend: Downtrend since March peak ($208.52), testing year-lows. One-Hour Chart: Support: $179–$180 (confluence with weekly low). Resistance: $182.50–$184 (prior consolidation zone). 10-Minute Chart: Entry/Exit: Bullish: Break above $181.50 (8-EMA) with a hammer candle for a long to $183. Bearish: Breakdown below $180 with volume for a short to $177. EMAs (8/13/48): 8 ($181.20) > 13 ($181.00) < 48 ($182.30)—choppy, no clear trend intraday. Indicators: RSI (14): 38 (10-min), neutral but rising—watch for divergence. MACD: Near zero line, flat—momentum stalling. Options Data Weekly Overview Gamma Exposure (GEX): Bearish—pinning near $180–$182, dealers hedging accelerates downside below $180. Delta Exposure (DEX): Bearish—put-heavy activity signals directional selling. Vega Exposure (VEX): Neutral—moderate volatility potential, no extreme IV spike expected. Implied Volatility (IV): Moderate (~32–35%)—elevated but manageable, favoring sellers over buyers. Open Interest (OI): Bearish—high OI at $180 put and $185 call strikes, capping upside. Potential Price Targets Bullish: $185 (+2.2%)—tests weekly HVN; $190 (+5%) if momentum builds. Bearish: $177 (-2.3%)—revisits year-low; $170 (-6.2%) on tariff escalation. Trade Idea Bullish 0DTE (April 7): Trade: Buy $182 Call @ $1.20. Entry: Break above $181.50. Target: $183 (profit $0.80, +66%). Stop: $180.50 (loss $0.70, -58%). Bearish 0DTE (April 7): Trade: Buy $180 Put @ $1.35. Entry: Breakdown below $180. Target: $178 (profit $0.65, +48%). Stop: $181 (loss $0.85, -63%).
AMEX:IWM
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Opening (IRA): IWM May 16th 190/195/220/225 Iron Condor... for a 1.70 credit. Comments: I think I have more than enough long delta on at the moment, so opting to go nondirectional/delta neutral here. Selling the 25's and buying the wings out from there, collecting one-third the width of the wings in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 3.30 Max Profit: 1.70 ROC at Max: 51.5% 50% Max: .85 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in oppositional side on side test.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
Bearish & Boring? Maybe. Profitable? Definitely.Bearish & Boring? Maybe. Profitable? Definitely. | SPX Market Analysis 12 Mar 2025 You know that feeling when you wake up and wonder if you’re stuck in a time loop? Yeah, me too. For what feels like the hundredth time, I’m reporting that the bear move is grinding lower. The difference? The profits keep stacking up—so I’m not complaining. Yesterday’s rally was supposedly triggered by Canada pausing tariffs, but let’s be real—this market is looking for any excuse to bounce. Yet, the overall trend remains the same: a slow, stair-stepping drop. Based on this drop-pause-drop rhythm, I suspect we’re entering the next pause before another leg down. My bear boots are full, my trade allocations are set, and I’m waiting for two tranches to exit profitably before considering any new plays. Until SPX clears 5850, the bullish setups stay on the shelf. This is the good kind of waiting—the kind where the market moves for me instead of me chasing it. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: If it feels like Groundhog Day, you’re not alone. The bearish grind continues, slowly pushing lower, delivering small but steady wins. Unlike a panic-driven crash, this move is unfolding in slow motion, keeping traders on edge, wondering if a rally is lurking around the corner. 📌 A Market Looking for an Excuse to Bounce Yesterday’s rally attempt was supposedly fueled by news that Canadian tariffs were being paused, but let’s be honest—this market is desperate for any reason to move higher. The reality? The larger bearish structure remains intact. Every bounce so far has been short-lived. The market keeps following a drop-pause-drop pattern. We’re likely entering the next "pause" phase before another move down. 📌 My Trading Approach—Locked, Loaded, and Waiting Right now, my bear boots are full, meaning I’m not adding new positions until my current tranches exit profitably. Two tranches are set to exit with profits by the end of the week. If we push lower or continue sideways, I’ll take my exits and reassess. Until SPX clears 5850, I won’t even think about bullish setups. 📌 What’s Next? The Good Kind of Waiting There’s no need to chase trades or force new entries. I’m simply letting my plan play out. If the market continues its slow-motion decline, I’ll collect my wins, reload selectively, and wait for the next prime setup. For now, I sit back and enjoy the show—because this time, the market is working for me, not against me. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2008, Porsche trapped hedge funds in one of the greatest short squeezes in history, briefly making it the most valuable company in the world—all thanks to a secretive stock manoeuvre. 💡 The Lesson? Markets don’t just move up and down—they can also turn traders inside out. The wrong bet at the wrong time can be devastating… unless, of course, you have a system that keeps you on the right side of the trade. 🚀
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
$ROKU Bullish Reversal?I have taken a 1/2 size position here on $ROKU. It had a nice big earnings gap and has since pulled back. It looks to me that it is now ready to reverse higher. See notes on chart. I have taken the fact that it broke (just barely) the Downtrend Line and put in what looks to be a reversal candle. My stop will be just below yesterday's low. This is my idea. If you like it, please make sure it fits within your trading rules. While I consider this a low risk trade, you may not. Thanks for looking. Comments always welcome.
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by jaxdog
RUSSELL 2000 failed breakout and consolidation We are back in this blog space after a couple of days holiday. The RUSSELL 2000 ETF AMEX:IWM failed at the same price point which it failed back in Nov 2021. It seems Price having a memory. It failed at the same price it failed in Nov 2021. After it failed from the top on 16th Dec 2024 it has recently retraced back to the 0.236 Fib retracement level @ 2237. It has been consolidating at that level and if it breaks down then the next support is @ 2167 . Before the AMEX:IWM breaks out form this pattern it has to complete the wedge forming consolidating pattern. In my opinion the direction will be decided by the TVC:US10Y . As long as the TVC:US10Y stays below 4.5% the AMEX:IWM can consolidate here and then my break upwards as long as the bull market remains intact. Direction of AMEX:IWM will be determined by TVC:US10Y
IG:RUSSELLLong
by RabishankarBiswal
$XBI Starting New Bullish Trend?AMEX:XBI has been range bound (wide range) for a year. Recently it has been in a downtrend as defined by lower highs and lower lows. However, it looks like we now have a recent higher high and (maybe) a higher low. There are still technical challenges like it is under all moving averages. It would look much better once it gets above the shorter-term MAs which are all declining. The MACD is on a slight downward slope as well. Having pointed all that out, I will be looking at a lower time period chart to get an early entry with a tight stop. If I do take a trade on this, I will post the chart I am looking at. All TBD. This is my idea, if you like it, please make the trade your own and follow your own trading rules.
AMEX:XBILong
by jaxdog
$SNOW Trying to Break-Out NYSE:SNOW as of today has tested the breakout / resistance area Six times in the last 9 trading sessions. Today it tried again but it is hard to fight the market trend. However, the more it tests this area the more likely it is to successfully breakout. As always, there is no guarantee that it will or will continue higher. I am long this name at 186.90 and have a stop just below the most recent low @ 175.25. Once it breaks out and holds, I will use a trailing stop on the 21 EMA (green). It will need to close convincingly under the 21 EMA. Let’s see what happens. If you like this idea, please make sure it fits your trading plan.
NYSE:SNOWLong
by jaxdog
2
$IWM Trending UpThe Russell 200 Index is clearly in an established uptrend as you can see on this weekly chart. The CPI number out this morning looks like it will push it back to the lower trendline. If recent history is still intact (it is for now), there may be an opportunity for a long trade on a reversal. All TBD. My plan is to wait for a reversal back to the upside then look for a low-risk reward entry. There is an area of resistance around that horizontal line as well. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
AMEX:IWMLong
by jaxdog
Your Vote Counts - Help Build the Ultimate Index Watchlist!Hey, I need your help again - this will only take a minute! I’ve said it before, here and to my Substackers: I want to be your reminder to invest . Because let’s be honest, steadily growing your wealth might not be thrilling but it should be your goal! Yes, individual stocks have their place (and I’ll keep sharing ideas on those too), but indexes should be a key part of a solid portfolio. Today’s focus? Maximizing your index purchases. 📊 Proven strategy: A few weeks ago, I ran an experiment comparing QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF), SPY (S&P 500 ETF), and IWM (Russell 2000 ETF). Using technical analysis, I outperformed two of them. The tests showed that blind purchasing could be costly: for instance, regular SPY purchases would have left $100,000 on the table, and IWM even more. But here’s the point: this isn’t about blindly picking an index - it’s about timing, risk optimization, and smart diversification. 💡 Now, it’s YOUR turn! Drop two indexes in the comments that you want me to analyze every single month. You decide the final list (likely 4-5 indexes), and I’ll cover them consistently. Whether it’s S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, Russell 2000, or others - you pick, I deliver. 📈 How this helps YOU? ✔️ No overthinking : "What should I buy this month?" - just wait for my post and see the TOP picks ✔️ Keeps you engaged and active in the market ✔️ Builds consistency in your investing ✔️ Ensures every allocation works harder for you ⬇️ Comment your picks below, and let’s make every move count! 🚀 Cheers, Vaido
SP:SPXLong
by VaidoVeek
22
$QQQ Wedging on the 65 Minute Chart (VCP)NASDAQ:QQQ is clearly in a wedging pattern. These types of patterns “usually” resolve in the direction of the larger trend. In this case that trend is still up. This is a news driven market now so anything can happen. I have an alert set at both the top and bottom of the wedge lines. I do not plan to short this market, but should it break down, I may want to reduce my exposure. And if it breaks to the upside, I may add more exposure. I am giving my observation of the market. Nothing more.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by jaxdog
$CWAN Ready to Break Out of The Flat Base? NYSE:CWAN is a name most of us have never heard of. They serve hedge funds, asset managers, and insurance clients with Analytic software. It looks like it is in the process of putting in a higher low. It has regained the 8 and 20 EMAs and the MACD has turned positive. It can still go either way. There is overhead resistance at both the upper horizonal line on the chart and the now downward sloping 50 DMA (red). I have an alert set on the upper resistance line around 29.50. Should that trigger, I will go to a lower timeframe like a 5-minute chart to see if I can get a good entry. My stop, if I take the trade would be on a close below the 20 EMA (green). Making for a tight and good risk reward trade. I do not set targets, but I do think it has a chance to get back up to around 32.00 – 32.50. Which is around a 13% gain if that were to happen. If you like this idea, make it your own trade that fits your trading style.
NYSE:CWANLong
by jaxdog
$QTUM Maybe Trying to break out of This Wedge (VCP)I have been long this name for a few months now in my investment account. I have added more today with a stop on the added position size just below today’s low. There are some very big names in this ETF, it invests in AI learning as well as Quantum Computing. It looks to me to be in a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP), more popularly called a wedging pattern. I went long more shares as indicated above in anticipation of a break above the declining upper trendline. It also is supported by both the 8 and 20 EMAs and has consolidated to get more inline with the 50 DMA (red). If you like it, make the trade your own and make sure it fits your trading plan. Look at the fund holdings in “More About Fund” link supplied by TradingView. Here are some of the names you might recognize: NASDAQ:KLAC NYSE:IBM NASDAQ:PLTR NYSE:RTX NYSE:BABA From Defiance ETF Website: QTUM Index Description: The BlueStar® Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index (BQTUM) tracks liquid companies in the global quantum computing and machine learning industries, including products and services related to quantum computing or machine learning, such as the development or use of quantum computers or computing chips, superconducting materials, applications built on quantum computers, embedded artificial intelligence chips, or software specializing in the perception, collection, visualization, or management of big data.
NASDAQ:QTUMLong
by jaxdog
$TAN Is This Getting Ready for a Stage 2 Breakout?Clean Energy (Solar) has been in a downtrend since January 2021! Every time it looks like it is setting up for a stage 2 breakout, it has broken down. Will this time be different? Here is what I see on this chart. TAN was in a clear downtrend until mid-December 2024. Then it challenged its previous high from the beginning of December. That failed BUT, it seems to have found a bottom as here we are in early February, and it has not sunk any lower than the December lows. I am optimistic that we may be ready to enter a Stage 2 uptrend. However, it has work to do. The first step is to get up and over the 50 DMA (red). Next it needs to break the Downtrend line. It also needs to put in a higher high and finally put in a higher low. As I said, it has work to do. Having said all of that, I have an alert set just over the 50 DMA where I will look for a good entry where I can put in a tight stop should I decide to make the trade. IF, it is going to enter a sustained uptrend it “could” be a big winner. All TBD. These are my ideas, if you think it makes sense for you, please make it your own trade that fits within “your” trading plan.
AMEX:TANLong
by jaxdog
3