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IWM

$CLBT With Huge Cup with Handle Breakout.NASDAQ:CLBT Beat on earnings with an 800% surprise and earnings growth of 1,000% as reported on November 14th. Cellebrite sells software to the Police, and all government entities. They state that: Cellebrite's mission is to enable its customers to protect and save lives, accelerate justice, and preserve privacy in communities around the world. Now to the chart, I have charted this on the weekly timeframe, so the latest candle is only 2 days old. 4 weeks ago, NASDAQ:CLBT broke out of the handle formation. It is now consolidating that breakout. The formal breakout that many use would be the height of the cup before the handle was formed. The breakout price for that is $8.29. Which is very close in price to the 18-month AVWAP. As of this moment it’s trading at $8.45. I have an alert set right at 8.60. Should that trigger, I will look to go long with a stop just under this week’s low of 8.09. That seems to be a good risk reward ratio to me. I do not set price targets, but I think it is possible to go back near all-time highs of around $11.50. Should that happen that is a 33% move! I can handle that. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:CLBTLong
by jaxdog
$VRT Flat Base Breakout?I traded NYSE:VRT about 3 weeks ago on the break above the declining trendline shown on the chart. It had a lackluster move, so I closed it out for 1.12 profit per share over a 2-week span, too slow for me. Yesterday saw a lot of buying on big volume. I wanted to wait until this morning to see if there was going to be any follow through. Yes, it happened so I have started a new ¼ size position with the day low as my stop. With all that volume I am looking for this to be a sustainable breakout, but I have that stop in case I am wrong. If I am correct, I will look to add on any pullbacks to the moving averages. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:VRTLong
by jaxdog
A clear risk on event is taking placeI multiplied the less risky Dow and Spy while dividing it with a multiple of bio, the Russel and Ark. This shows a clear shooting star candle in development this month which should signal much greater future gains in higher risk stocks and an end to this pullback in the market. You can see that we had nice rallies the last two times that this has happened on this chart at March 2020 and Feb 2016. I also noticed some more supporting evidence that this is near the bottom from the dark orange wedge breakout. If you measure the bottom to the peak in 2015-16 you can get an ideal exit target for the wedge breakout. Typically, you would measure from the breakout point, which it hasn't reached at this time, but if you measure from the bottom, you can see that the target has interestingly been reached to an almost exact amount. We also have the yellow resistance and the peak at March 2020 as a pivot point for all of these lines. Not too critical of a point, I just found that interesting haha. We also have institutions like black rock capitulating on growth twitter.com Many institutions were bearish on the market at the bottom of the covid dip. Finally we have a heavily overbought RSI and stoch on the monthly that also signals a top. Now the short term future outlook looks bullish on risk to me but I was thinking on potential long term possibilities from there: I believe that the yellow trajectory is more likely to happen over the blue one at this point to be honest. The blue option just requires too much competence in all global leaders to pull off so it seems unlikely to me and would be frankly miraculous. But it could still happen. The yellow one would basically give investors an opportunity to exit growth at more reasonable prices before the market continues its tank fest again. And while I have this pivot point at Jan 2024, it could happen much steeper and faster and pivot later this year. The yellow support line and the blue breakout line are most important to watch and see what option it'll be.
AMEX:SPY
by Lynxys
3
$QTWO Flat base Breakout?Here is another off the radar company that has the potential to double in price over the next year. Today it is peaking out over a most recent flat base. Since the most recent low on Oct 31st, this stock has rallied by over 30% and is hitting a 52-week high today as well. I do not know if it can get back to the all-time high of about $147.00 per share but I do think it can be a solid gainer. I have opened a ¼ size position in this today as it is breaking out. I will place my stop just under today’s low of 36.98 which makes for a good risk reward as a trader. An investor who plans on holding a longer term (a year or more), a stop could be placed under the most recent higher low or maybe the large bar on Dec 1st. Either of those 2 areas would give a lot of breathing room. I, however, like a tighter stop and I am not opposed to getting stopped out and getting back in even at a higher price. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking. From earningswhispers.com: Q2 Holdings Beat Consensus Estimates Wednesday, November 1, 2023, at 4:30 PM ET Q2 Holdings (QTWO) reported a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $154.97 million for the third quarter ended September 2023. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.17 per share on revenue of $155.44 million. The company beat consensus estimates by 11.76% while revenue grew 7.06% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects fourth quarter revenue of $160.3 million to $163.3 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $161.42 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2023. Q2 Holdings Inc through its subsidiary is engaged in providing secure, cloud-based virtual banking solutions. Its software suite includes integrated modules for online banking, telephone banking, mobile banking, and core account management.
NYSE:QTWOLong
by jaxdog
$RAMP with a PEG Consolidation.NYSE:RAMP may well ramp up here. They had nice earnings beat with a Power Earnings Gap (PEG) and now some nice consolidation. I have placed an alert just over yesterday’s high. Should it trigger, I will look to a lower timeframe for a good risk reward entry. I like these kinds of set-ups as the risk can be clearly defined. So, if the trade does not workout I will get stopped out for a small loss. From LiveRamp’s website: LiveRamp aspires to make it safe and easy for companies to use data effectively. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:RAMPLong
by jaxdog
2
$SMH Looking for Gap Fill?The semiconductor sector has been on fire since bottoming out at the end of October. In fact, the low to the high in November was just over 21%! Some consolidation of those gains would be healthy. I am looking for the NASDAQ:SMH ETF to fill the gap from Nov 14th. I am not predicting that it will however, I am thinking that is a good possibility. I have an alert set just above the gap fill. If that triggers, I will be looking for a reversal back up for a long entry. All TBD. NASDAQ:SOXX is a similar ETF with a similar pattern so whichever one you prefer I think is worth putting on a watchlist. I ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by jaxdog
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:IWM chart analysis/mapping. IWM ETF rally off late October lows on market expectations of the end to Fed rate hikes. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = multiple gap fill / 38.2% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = 23.6% Fib / horizontal line (light blue dashed) confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = lower range of parallel channel (green) / 200MA confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = re-test ~163 bottom.
AMEX:IWM
by BlueHatInvestor
IWM: Small Caps Continue the Rally, Eyeing $198Small caps have sprung back to life. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell nearly 20% from its July 31 recovery high to a multi-year low in October of $162, undercutting the June 2020 mark of $164. Today, the move back up to $186 might feel like too much, too fast, but I see things otherwise. Notice in the chart that IWM actually went through a more than two-week stretch of trendless price action. Technicians like to see such periods of consolidation within uptrends as healthy signs of rest and recovery, often setting the stage for the next leg higher. That’s about what took place. Printing above $186 this morning in the premarket, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures which are in the red, the little guys of the market are once again spreading some pre-holiday cheer. The move comes under the radar, too, considering that the focus among traders is primarily on bitcoin and gold. I also find it encouraging that IWM is up despite a bout of selling pressure in the bond market today, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up a few basis points. I’ll be watching to see if IWM manages to retest the July highs at $198, up to the $202 area – a long-term resistance range dating back to Q3 2022.
AMEX:IWMLong
by mikezaccardi
ARE WE ARE ABOUT TO WITNESS A TRAIN WRECK FROM THE FRONT ROW?This evening I was watching TV and I get an email alert. The title of email, “Wall Street’s 2024 SP500 forecasts are out, are you positioned?”, … and to my surprise (not really) the future looks bright for the US stock markets next year. I immediately thought to myself…What did I click on to get this garbage? LOL Truthfully, I didn’t think that…I eagerly went to my office to open the email to see what firms were peddling what train wreck of a guess, and to what extent would market participants buy into this publicity stunt. If you’re like me and you’re either directly affiliated with the US markets or just a hit and run reader of online financial news, you probably get emails just like these. Obviously, these emails are click-bait for readers of market news…it worked on me. I practice a form of market analysis called Elliott Wave Theory. To be brief, this form of analysis charts the price action that market participants create each of every time they buy and sell. The buys and sells are obviously based on their positive or negative sentiment within any particular market. The patterns tend to be repeating, and fractal in nature, from the intraday to the very long-term time durations. Based on their repeating nature these patterns can be very accurately forecasted long into the future. This form of analysis does not take into account market and economic news or events. The basis for this theory created by RN Elliott in the 1930’s is that news and external events are not causal with the respect to the pattern and its aftermath. A great example of this would be the last two earnings releases for Nvidia (NVDA) in both the August and November releases. Each release far exceeded analysts’ expectations on both revenue and EPS, but the resulting stock price behavior was to decline 20% and 10% respectively. However, in both cases those types of stock price behaviors could have been forecasted in advance. On November 30 I posted this article,“ Is NVDA Headed to $467 " Later in the trading day, NVDA followed through as forecasted. This was not a function of magic, just EWT analysis and good ole' fashion math. Now for full disclosure, the rally off the October 27th bottom in the markets was not entirely unanticipated I just did not expect to the extent it has rallied and I had deemed that potential alternative pathway showing a rally, low probability . Now, having rallied from late October to last Friday, I would not get too excited about that sort of price action persisting. More on that when I update followers next time. Back to the 2024 SP500 targets. From Bank of America to Goldman Sachs, not one firm is projecting the SP500 to be down next year. In fact, they forecast modest growth in neighborhood of 5% to 10%, with some other firms as high as 20% higher from current levels. The above chart is the SPX cash market from inception. You can see with arrows how I am forecasting the future price action. I have written on this subject matter ad nauseum. Nonetheless, I wonder if these latest SP500 targets from Wall Street firms are elevating market participant expectations, only to set up a pending train wreck. Are we willing participants? Is Dow Theory Dead? Dow Jones Transportation Index Do Small Caps no longer lead? Small Caps Index I'm reminded of this true story. In 1849 the Texas county of McClennan thought it was a good idea to approve an event for the (Missouri, Kansas, Texas Railway) known as KATY for short, railway executive George Crush to market two steam engine trains of his deliberately colliding head on into each other. The event was highly marketed and touted as free to attend. However, to get to the area of the event in rural McClennan county, you had to buy a ticket on one of George Crush’s trains for $3.50. In today’s dollars that fare would be $125. On the day of the event, a whopping 40,000 people lined up to witness the spectacle. Ironically, the sheer total human population in attendance on that day, rivaled the total population of Texas’ largest city at the time. The main event got underway with the two trains chugging towards each other at top speed and collided in spectacular form,…right up until the steam engines of both locomotives exploded, and jettisoned debris in such violent form, that scores of people were injured, and 2 people actually died that day. Between the event promoters, staff, county officials, and each and every soul that made a conscience decision to attend such an event on that day, apparently not one thought, this could be the outcome. In hindsight the result seems both obvious in its destructive and harmful potential, while simultaneously being inexplicable why no one thought it was a bad idea. Are there two metaphorical locomotives running towards each other now in the economic world? Is the CNBC’s of the world, and Wall Street analysts of today with their lofty 2024 SP500 predictions nothing but a bunch of latter-day George Crushs’? Saying its free to attend their publicity stunt, but transport will cost you an arm and a leg. Then you literally have to pay up. Time will tell. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPXShort
by maikisch
6
$TSLA Wedge Break?I have been keeping an eye on NASDAQ:TSLA as it keeps putting in higher lows. It looks to me that we have a wedge pattern inside a larger wedge pattern. I have started a ½ size position in anticipation of running up to the larger wedge pattern where I would expect more resistance. In addition, NASDAQ:TSLA is now above all shorter-term moving averages and the rising 40 Week MA in white. A close below the 40 Week MA will be my stop area. Let’s see what happens. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by jaxdog
12
$FROG Breaking out of PEG Pennant?I have been watching NASDAQ:FROG since the Power Earnings Gap on Nov 2nd. It pulled in nicely and I should have bought it on Nov 13, but I missed it. It has since pulled back again and looks to be breaking out of this consolidation area. I have started a ¼ size position with a stop below today’s low. I will look to add if it can follow thru without stopping me out this week. All TBD. They did miss on earnings but beat on revenue. Although they missed, the earnings growth was 47.4% and revenue grew by 23.1% Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking. From earningswhispers.com : JFrog Missed Consensus Estimates Wednesday, November 1, 2023 at 4:07 PM ET JFrog (FROG) reported a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $88.64 million for the third quarter ended September 2023. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $87.56 million. The company missed consensus estimates by 25.00% while revenue grew 23.12% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.12 to $0.13 per share on revenue of $92.50 million to $93.50 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $92.93 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2023. JFrog, the creator of the DevOps platform, is on a “Liquid Software” mission to enable the flow of software seamlessly and securely from the developer’s keystrokes to production.
NASDAQ:FROGLong
by jaxdog
$FRSH Breaking Out of Downtrend?NASDAQ:FRSH I like this chart except for a declining 50 day moving average (red) and it has yet to put in a higher low. The positives are a rising 40-week MA (white) price has moved over the shorter-term Mas. It looks to be breaking out over the downtrend line. I like how I can define my risk if I am wrong. I have started a ¼ size position and I will look to add if / when it moves over the near horizontal trendline. I will place my stop on a close below the 40-week MA.
NASDAQ:FRSHLong
by jaxdog
IWM has now ended the 1st ABC up decline now in waveB The chart posted is the IWM Russell 2000 tracking etf . As the forecast called for an ABC rally back to just above 181 we should now see a 3 wave decline to about 171/165 focus on 167 area over the next 2 weeks and then rally in a 5 wave structure from that low about dec 4 to the 10 th low into a peak at .618 at the 185.7 to 187.10 area about dec 24th to dec 29th Before the next very clear leg down in the BEAR market The market could holdup to jan 10 to the 17th some what but after that the data get very very neg in the Business cycle
AMEX:IWM
by wavetimer
1
Russell 2000 (RTY, M2K) Low-Timeframe ShortQuick idea here as we look to get back in a groove with analysis/posts after a very light October. Not going to include a lot of elaboration, but we're looking to take advantage of a swing short (price depending) via a low timeframe (5-minute) RTY supply zone (defining candles not pictured here since sub-15-minute charts cannot be posted). If price approaches the zone hot (expanded range candle vs. grinding action), look to take the trade outright upon penetration of the lower bound (1795.4). If RTY stair-steps higher, forming new pockets of demand between current price and supply, consider taking a confirmation entry (price exit from zone). Stop should be placed a bit above the zone's upper bound. Keep in mind round # psych @ 1800. Targets are 2:1 and 5:1 (look for a fall back to origin of CPI breakout). Finally, US stocks have been very bullish as of late, so shorts fly in the face of current momentum. That said, RTY has consistently been the weakest of the 4 US equity indexes, so if you're going to short one, it's probably your best bet. Have to run, but good luck! Stay tuned b/c a LOT more ideas are coming soon! Jon @ LionHart Trading
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by LionHart_Trading