RTY UpdateRSI hit overbought and stalled, MFI is overbought.
Appears to be a rotation from small cap to tech, took the easy money and dumped my long positions
IWM
SPY vs TLT : Massive DivergenceThe S&P500 is diverging from the TLT ETF.
We have seen this happen many times over the course of 2021, 2022, 2023.
Each time this happened, stocks ended up playing catch up to the downside.
As yields and bonds typically react first to the incoming macro data, stocks seem to always get the memo last.
Is this time different? Can stocks rally as bonds fall?
SPX - the weekly previewWhat I think is going on - the path to 4200 still very possible this week or next with the economic numbers. This is a quick look at SPX, IWM and XLF
Good luck and see you during the week!
Opening (IRA): IWM April/May 176/169 Short Put LadderComments:
Starting to deploy at intervals into second quarter expiries, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. I'd prefer weakness and higher IV, naturally, but am not getting it in the short term.
Received a 1.79 credit for the April 21st 176; a 1.75 credit for the May 19th 169.
Opening (IRA): IWM April/May/June 166/160/150 Short Put LadderComments:
Adding rungs in second quarter expiries here, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
April 21st 166 for a 1.68 credit.
May 19th 160 for a 1.77 credit.
June 16th 150 for a 1.45 credit.
$IWM - Looking interesting between $164.00 and $169.00 #IWM usually bounces from $164.00 to $169.00 area. I am a buyer around that area. #Russell2000
Not an investment advice.
RTY UpdateCPI pump and dump as predicted, RTY went overbought on RSI with MFI divergence.
Fed meeting minutes at 2pm, unemployment and PPI numbers premarket tomorrow and retail numbers premarket Friday. Garbage stocks didn't even last 15 minutes, lol. PTON shot down so fast I couldn't even catch up to it. Managed to snag a few BYND puts, we'll see where taht goes.
Might snag some CAT puts EOD for unemployment number tomorrow.
Inverse Head & Shoulders: Right Shoulder FormingNice bounce off the volume shelf the last two days with the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders forming and the price gap that fills above at $181.28 and the swing high anchored VWAP right around $180.50.
Dow Jones - DIA DJIBoy, are these markets something else. Since before 2008, markets correlated relatively close to economic data. Since the introduction of Fed intervention with slashed rates and Quantitative Easing, "markets" were able to "shrug" off even the worst geopolitical and economic events. In fact, it defies all logic.
Logically, markets can and should ignore all TA when an economy is hurting significantly. There isn't a bright spot in the economic data. The consumer is badly beaten and barely holding on. Discretionary spending, credit card debt, personal debt, consumer sentiment, and consumer confidence show us that the average American is at their limit for what they can spend and do. A new study showed that 1 in 4 Americans are skipping Thanksgiving Dinner altogether because of the costs. Keep in mind the collapsing retail, collapsing freight by sea, and now the threat of rail strikes in December which is quickly becoming a reality.
This of course is one of countless statistics that show the pain of average American. Other statistics show savings rates have plummeted and credit card debt is at record levels as people's pay-checks are no longer covering their expenditures.
We've about peaked in this market, looking at a double top from August 2022.. but again, TA doesn't matter as it did before. MACD and RSI have PLENTY of room on the downside. Look at the economic data, even the TA for the short term and position accordingly.
This chart can and will most likely reflect majority of stocks from S&P, Nasdaq, QQQ, SPY, IWM or Russell 2000.
$ARKK Wedging$ARKK seems to be a barometer for risk-on risk-off in this market. A month ago, I was looking at the re-test of the 30 Week MA (white line) then the break back above the flat line of resistance to be a long signal. (I took the trade long only to be stopped out 3 days later.) That turned out to be a false breakout.
We are now in a downward consolidation pattern that could break either way. I have alerts set at both sloping trendlines and I’ll look at taking a trade either long or short depending on the direction of the break. If going short, I’ll likely use $SARK an inverse ETF for the ARKK fund.
I will also be looking for other longs or shorts in the market once ARKK breaks either way. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
XLU outperforming...What you need to know. When the XLU outperforms the broad market, you better be taking note as an investor or trader.
What does it mean when Utilities outperform the S&P500?
The better question to ask is why do people buy Utilities?
We have informed our members of this important signal and why its critical to understand this price action.
A hint, most investors buy Utilities for Yield & protection .
Retest 210?There is a high chance it could retest 210 in May. Volume is high recently. It should stay above 180 for it to happen.
IWM/RUT down to 130+ zoneRUT is in 1-2 structure and is ready for a move down in wave 3 of C. It might still try to push up until mid April though I don't expect to see a major move. Whole structure should bottom by mid August in 130+ area.
Opening (IRA): IWM May 19th 155 Short Put... for a 1.55 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in May, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
QQQ Bullish Bias Continuation LONGQQQ has weathered federal action and the banking meltdown quite well.
It has trended upward from a double-bottom pivot March 1 to March 13.
The MACD has held steady without any bearish divergence from price action.
Sell order blocks are lurking at 325. QQQ is trending above its anchored
VWAP showing that buying pressure exceeds selling pressure.
I will trade the QQQ with call options in TQQQ expiring Friday April 6th.
Getting several of them will allow for partial position closures as the call
values rise as a form of risk management.
Opening (IRA): IWM April/May 150/140 Short Put LadderAdding in May and June at strikes below what I currently have on in those expiries, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
May 19th 150: 1.75 credit
June 16th 140: 1.58 credit
Opening (IRA): IWM May/June/July 145/135/130 Short Put LadderComments: Adding to my IWM position here on weakness, high IV, targeting the <16 strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
May 19th 145: 1.46 credit
June 16th 135: 1.34 credit
July 21st 130: 1.54 credit
IWM Russell 2000 RUT affected by the SIVB collapse! Puts to buy!After the last RUT Russell 2000 Price Target was Perfectly reached:
Now you need to know that many of the Russell 2K companies will be impacted by the SIVB collapse.
Roughly 50% of the US venture capital-funded startups are clients of SVB , potentially putting 65,000 startups at risk of payroll disruptions. Such a situation could have significant consequences for the startup and tech sectors.
Silicon Valley Bank did business with FTX, plus many other formerly overvalued tech companies.
With $210 billion in assets, $SIBV was the 15th largest bank in the US in terms of deposits.
IWM puts considering buying:
2023-4-21 expiration date
$169 Strike Price
$3.65 Premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
RTY UpdateES and NQ MFI are creeping up because they went oversold yesterday but RTY MFI is dropping because it hi overbought this morning. Also, FDAX MFI hit overbought, so high probability of a gap down tomorrow or every index.
ES and NQ might melt up today but watch out for the gap tomorrow and I'd shy away from small caps.
Still all cash, waiting for Friday CPE numbers.
RTY UpdateThe algos are pumping money into RTY trying to hold that blue line. You can see MFI climbing.
Problem is MFI will go overbought Monday so we'll see a drop Tuesday, if not Monday afternoon. Plus Euro markets tanked so we might even see a gap down Monday. Seems to me garbage stocks are done tanking so there's really no choice but to go long here.
Crappy whipsaw market to trade.
IWM IS NOW A BUY LOOK FOR IT TO RALLY IN AN ABC FOR 1.5 WEEKS The chart posted is now ending a clear 5 waves down to end wave 1 of the CRASH OR IS 5 DOWN FOR WAVE C OF B BOTH SAY TO COVER SHORTS IN THIS ONLY INDEX AND LOOK FOR THIS INDEX TO RALLY DO NOT ATTEMPT TO THINK IT WILL BE THE OTHER INDEXS AS MUCH
Opening (IRA): IWM April 6th 168/June 16th 197 LPD*... for a 21.30 debit.
Comments: Re-erecting my short delta hedge in IWM against my long delta portfolio. Buying the June -90 delta put and selling the April 6th +30 one. This isn't greatly ideal here with small caps being at the low end of their range, so wouldn't recommend doing it as a standalone short ... .
Metrics: 21.30 cost basis with a 175.70 break even on a 29 wide.
* -- Long Put Diagonal.
RTY UpdateNo idea what the other indices are doing, looks like a melt up on ES and NQ because MFI is dropping while RSI is rising.
RTY is oversold, and PTON is up so it means short squeeze time, lol. Small long position, don't need the heartburn.
