Capital One....technical Breakdown loomingWith major weakness in the banking sector we are still seeing the contagion play out. Some banks are more at risk than others.
Based off of a blow out in Credit Default Swaps. The bond market is showing there is tremendous risk in this bank.
Just like Credit Suisse CD's blew out befroe the collapse, we are watching COF credit defaults blowout.
IWM
Have You Considered A Ride Down IWM 170? AMEX:IWM 50 MA crossed down the 200 MA on the daily and 4H timeframe. The daily chart shows a lot of sellers. IWM also made lower highs on the weekly timeframe. Also, the exchange traded fund is resting on a trendline that it's maintained since March 2020! If we break down below 170 and it holds, IWM should see more downside. The weekly chart shows an increase of sellers between last week and this week. Last but not least, the etf shows a shooting star candle that printed on the weekly chart (March 13-17, 2023). Therefore, my plan is to short IWM below 170!
I will ride down IWM 170 (provided price gets there of course).
*This is not financial advice
Peace & Harmony,
MrALtrades00
RTY UpdateAppears to be a complete pump and dump failure. I got bullish because of the buy volume the past couple of days, but it hit overbought on MFI and now is dropping. i think there's potential for it to stay oversold for a day or two when it gets there because it's dropping on much lower volume. Those that bought have to sell, and volume isn;t matching up yet.
Opening (IRA): IWM March 24th 175/May 19th 202 LPD*... for a 20.52 debit.
Comments: Resetting my short delta hedge against a long delta portfolio ... . You know the drill: buying the -90 put in the back and selling the +30 delta put in the front.
20.52 cost basis with a 181.48 break even on a 27 wide.
* -- Long Put Diagonal.
TZA Long, IWM Short due to weakness in XLF & SPY- Very notable drop in the last 3 days for all sectors. Most important factor to remember is always following the trend and dont try to fight against it. Even though today there was a lot of opportunity in both direction it was quite a choppy day.
- I mentioned yesterday any pop bullish on premarket data will be a good short for all sectors and i will be getting in too.
- Took a decent 6100 shares position in TZA which is leverage 3x ETF for IWM short.
- SPY and QQQ now below 200 daily MA.
- Very oversold on multiple time frames would like to play a bounce Monday when we have all time frames oversold at a same time, ideally a gap down Monday for a bonuce play.
- All trends still favor the bears expect we are still in a weekly uptrend, SPY approaching that weekly support very soon.
Pre NFP - SPX, IWM OIL GOLD TLT BTCAll in the video, we are in a critical area of support for the markets. Oil is especially leaning bearish for me as it's been winding up for months and looks ready to break down. I talk about IWM/SPY bull flag, and possible strength in both TLT and Gold. Non Farm Payrolls are tomorrow so anything is possible, including a rally to 4100 area again, if it happens, it would be a stone cold short in my opinion.
Good luck!
IWM rejection at the 18 monthlyAlthough there is support for IWM between 182-1, I think the real target will be the combination of the monthly BB and 100 ma, around 158-156. Structural trendline (purple) looks right and it's no surprise it showed up at the 18ma exactly to regect the advance.
IWM divided by SPY is a bull flag, so I expect IWM to sell off much more than spy once it breaks out - which looks to me like it could happen this month.
Good luck!
Opening (IRA): IWM March 10th 182/April 21st 204 LPD*... for a 16.20 debit.
Comments: Re-erecting my short delta hedge in IWM after taking off my earlier setup in profit. Back the -90 delta put in the back and selling the 30 delta put in the front. 16.20 cost basis with a 187.50 break even on a 22 wide.
* -- Long Put Diagonal.
RTY UpdateRSI oversold again, but I wouldn't consider going long until ES and NQ also go oversold.
ES MFI has a LONG way to go before it hits oversold. Plus the market gave up on the short squeeze and lost all interest in garbage stocks. PTON down 7% now. Friday is when funds rebalance their portfolios, and I'd imagine they'd want to get rid of garbage stocks and move to dividend stocks. Flight to safety trade tomorrow, I think. Problem is ES MFI needs to go down....
Opening (IRA): IWM Feb 24th/April 21st 185/208 LPD*... for a 17.30 debit.
Comments: Resetting my broad market short delta hedge against a long delta portfolio in IWM here buying the back month -90 delta and selling the front month +30 delta. Cost basis of 17.30 with a 190.70 break even on a 23 wide.
* -- Long Put Diagonal.
Opened (IRA): IWM July 21st 155 Short Put... for a 1.87 credit.
Comments: Did a few things right at the close ... . Went out a smidge more long-dated since I have positions on in April, May, and June. Just looking to get more capital deployed. Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into small caps. Will generally look to do something at 50% max (e.g., roll up, roll out, etc.).
Opening (IRA): IWM October 14th 160/December 16th 194 LPD*... for a 26.09 debit.
Comments: Short delta hedge against a long delta portfolio. 26.09 cost basis on a 34 wide with a 167.91 break even, a 7.91 ($791) max, and a 3.96 ($396) 50% max. The preference would be to put these hedges on in strength, so probably not the best setup as a standalone trade.
* -- Long Put Diagonal.
IWM - Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF - OVERBOUGHTRSI has fallen back under 70 & ADX is rising. Selling could become a STRONG TREND as the dollar rebounds with rising yields. Expecting a $VIX spike to occur if $DXY continues upward. Staying HEDGED for the DEBT BUBBLE implosion with $UVIX $UVXY $HDGE $TZA