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SPY H&S is breaking. The market may have just flipped!H&S Broke it's neckline and the overall $580 Support. We are seeing this break of support across the NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM as well. This is all leading me to believe strongly that we are now in a crash or correction in these markets. I personally sold out of all my TRADES and am HOLDING and DCAing in all my INVESTMENTS. The difference here is my Trades where to the upside and with the markets telling us where we are most likely heading now I am not staying in trades to find out if it will be for 5% or more to the downside from here as this would lead to all long trades getting pulled to the depths of hell. There are no certainties, and before, based on what I was seeing, I said I believed we would bounce and hold this area (Which could still be the case), but all reasoning behind that has been ruptured, and I have nothing left to believe in that besides small criteria. To be a good or profitable trader, you need to be not stubborn, follow a set trading strategy, and be reactive to the markets and what they are telling us—not go against the overall trend! All we have are charts and indicators to help us make our best assumptions of what will happen. More criteria pointing in one direction is the way you have to assume we will go...well we went from pointing up and for an imminent bounce to most criteria pointing down for what will either be one of the biggest fake outs ever's or a correction/ crash in the markets after a massive 2 year bull run. Only time will tell at this point, but I wanted to make this post to inform everyone here about what I personally did and what I'm seeing. I DID TALK ABOUT A CORRECTION/ CRASH THIS YEAR IN THE MARKETS IN MY 2025 PREVIEW BUT SAID SECOND HALF AND THAT WAS MY BEST GUESS... As always this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE and NEVER WILL BE! Everyone needs to play their own book and make their own ADULT decisions.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RonnieV29
17
Where is the Stock Market Heading? Forecast & Analysis thread!Where is the Stock Market Heading? 📈📉 Stock Market Forecast & Analysis🧵 In this thread, we’re breaking it down for you: -TA on TVC:VIX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM TVC:VIX -Economic Data -Insights & Predictions Let's dive in friends! Not financial advice NASDAQ:QQQ Monthly Chart analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -We are above 9ema and smoothing avg. Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box which is my personal strategy I use with the Wr%. As long as we stay within the confines of this Box we will continue to climb higher on the Q's outside of pullbacks. Weekly Chart Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Held volume shelf -Wicked back above 9ema (BULLISH) -Ascending triangle patterns Measured Move has not been realized yet. $580 -Created a Hammer Candle which is a reversal candle found at the bottom of downtrends, pullback, or corrections. Had a Normal 6% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's! TVC:VIX First up we have the Volatility AMEX:SPY Index which spiked up due to the FED dropping a FUD Nuke on the markets heading and causing the largest one day volatility spike in 2024. But, as you see below we have fallen in line since that day. We have created a bearish flag pattern and broken down through the base and should continue to flush lower. Keep in mind 60-70% of breakouts (either direction) come back to retest the point of the breakout area. Could see this happen with FOMC minutes being released this Wednesday. AMEX:SPY Monthly Chart analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -We are above 9ema and smoothing avg. -Wicked off previous resistance flipped into support Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box and thriving! $650 2025 PT! Weekly Chart Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Wicked back above smoothing line -Created a Hammer Candle right above 9ema Had a Normal 4.35% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's on the SPY! AMEX:IWM As I've stated in other posts the CAPITALCOM:RTY typically runs and plays catchup to the SPY and QQQ towards the end of bull runs and before the big corrections or crash comes. Weekly Chart Analysis: -At the bottom of an uptrend channel -Sitting on a massive volume shelf -At a massive S/R area -At the retest point for the Multi-Year CupnHandle breakout! With a Measured Move up to $306. Thats the same measurement of the CAPITALCOM:RTY catching back up to the $SPY. ECONOMICS:USCIR - Core Inflation Rate YoY Inflation is dead and falling like a rock! I don't hold any weight into what the FED was saying about inflation when he was the Grinch and spreading FUD. The FED is always to slow to do what is needed to be done and right now that is to continue to cut before things in the economy start to break due to higher rates. They raised rates to SLOW and they are choosing to cut rates to SLOW! What I'm seeing is we will continue to fall with small pockets of bounce backs in inflation on the overall down trend to sub 3 then sub 2 as you can see on the chart with the yellow levels. Overall Economic numbers are very positive and have been beating what the experts have been forecasting in December. We have some more data coming out this week and we will see if that trend continues. Like I said in a separate post, the FED has been talking about a boogeyman and spreading FUD but the DATA and NUMBERS show the BOOGEYMAN isn't REAL! Thanks for reading friend! If you enjoyed this analysis and forecast of the markets please like/ follow/ share if you feel I deserved it! ALL SOCIALS/ LINKS IN SIGNATURE BELOW AND PROFILE.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RonnieV29
4
Crypto & IWM Leading the way higher!At the beginning of the month, I anticipated a necessary pullback due to the red barrier on the Wr%. While I accurately predicted the pullback, I underestimated its severity and was slightly off on the timeline. As a swing/long-term trader, I'll accept minor discrepancies in the degree of severity and timing. In a previous video and subsequent write-ups, I emphasized that Crypto CRYPTOCAP:BTC , CRYPTOCAP:ETH , and AMEX:IWM , CAPITALCOM:RTY would lead us out of the DIP. This week, we are witnessing exactly that! Crypto and the Russell 2000 are bouncing back stronger than NASDAQ:QQQ and $SPY. In my 2025 preview, I discussed how AMEX:IWM has lagged behind since its peak in 2021. Before this bull market truly ends, we need a catch-up rally where the Russell launches itself at the SP500. I believe we will witness this in 2025, culminating in a blow-off top similar to 2021, followed by a significant correction crash. Not financial advice.
AMEX:IWMLong
by RonnieV29
5
12/30 Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Short week from Xmas leaves us with an inside weekly setup to start the new year. The way 2-1-X and 3-1-X setups (Inside bar setups) work, is they either confirm what happened previously, or negate it. In this specific scenario on the weekly, we have a large red week of selling (2D, followed by a pretty neutral inside week (1). Next week either goes 2D, confirming the selling from the previous week and therefore showing evidence of continuation lower, or we negate that selling by making a higher high (2U) and looking to reclaim the highs from the big red week from when FOMC occurred. We can't predict which way the next week will go, but we can at the very least imagine what has to occur for both bull and bear scenarios to be successful. Simply put, above last weeks high means we are targeting the weekly high from the week prior to last week. Below last weeks low means we are targeting the weekly low from the week prior to last week. Break either side and come back into last weeks range means we are failing to confirm/negate what the signal is indicating, and then we target the other side. EX: Monday pokes above last weeks high but closes red. We then would look to engulf the week and create a 1-3 combo on the weekly. This week should be similar to last week, meaning it may be tougher to trade since we have a few negative considerations and less ideal conditions to trade. Considerations for the upcoming week: For starters, we have another short week with new years day on Wednesday being a full day closure for the markets. Short week means less time for weekly candles to form, and therefore, likely chance of less volume to occur compared to normal weeks. Secondly, its the new year! This means we see all new candles on every timeframe up to the yearly chart. So, new Year, Quarter, Month, Week, Day, Hour, etc. Because of this, we will see issues with decoupling. This means the Year, Quarter, and Month will all be the same exact candle until we get to the second month and quarter of the year. Because the week starts in 2024 and ends in 2025, the week will be decoupled, but the M, Q and Y will not. Again, not the biggest issues ever, but just considerations to have in mind. Weekly Watchlist: (Side Note: I have added all of my charts for individual tickers mentioned for further clarity on what I am seeing with these setups) Bullish: NASDAQ:MRVL - 3-1-2U W to confirm bright green M, Y NASDAQ:AVGO - 2-1-2U W to confirm FTFC Up. Relative strength. 4HR 2-1-2U and 1HR 3-2U for Intraday entries Monday Bearish: NASDAQ:SMCI - Shooter 2U W to confirm failed 2U month. Super nice Daily BF NYSE:AI - 2-1-2D W to trigger Shooter failed 2U M. Gorgeous monthly Broadening Formation. NASDAQ:MSTR - 3-1-2D W. BTC with a weak setup on the major TFs. Looking to capitalize through MSTR and other names in that space NYSE:BRK.B - Shooter 3 D. Weekly 2-2U too weak to hit magnitude last week. Month is 3-1 but big red currently. May be early on this but with similar setups in the Financial industry, this is one I want to watch. NASDAQ:AMD - Hammer revstrat D to trigger Weekly 2-1-2U at Monthly Exhaustion level. Yearly has a nasty bearish revstrat setup forming, but if we are just daytrading this, it looks good for an exhaustion play intraweek. Otherwise will be watching all next year for that Y revstrat to play out Neutral: NYSE:SHOP - 3-1 W. Month Failing 2U. NASDAQ:NVDA : Currently Shooter 2U W. Normally this is just bearish, but the 2W chart can go hammer 1-2-2U, and M is 2D but close to open meaning it is failing that downside signal. I could see this going either way, but its such an interesting setup that I wanted to include it.
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
12/22/24 Weekly Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Huge sell off across the board from FOMC news on Wednesday. SPY sold off down through previous Broadening Formation range reclaiming previous downside pivot just below 684. So with that in mind, we expand out of the BF below that pivotal low, or come back through range above it. With SPY currently setup to potentially go 3-2 daily, we look to see whether fridays high or low gets taken out. Being above the pivot at 684, we are looking to come back through that BF range and make new ATHs as of now. Of course this can all change depending on whether our W is green or red, but for now we are closer to making a daily HH than a LL. With Christmas being this week, the markets close 2 hours early on Tuesday, and re open on Thursday. Being a short week like this, we need to be extra cautious as there will be lower than normal volume, and simply less time for the weekly candle to form, so expectations on a large move this week as most seem to be predicting, may not happen for the prior reasons. Personally will not be trading Tuesday and possibly not at all this week if I don't see absolute A+ setups. Watchlist: Bullish: NASDAQ:NVDA - Pot. 1-3-2U Daily to trigger failed 2D hammer week. Swept BF lows this past week. Looking to come back through range. This is a big name for the markets, so I expect that if the markets are recovering, this will lead the way or follow with it NASDAQ:MU - 2-2U reversal potential daily to target gap fill from ER. We took out weekly BF mag on friday, hitting exhaustion levels after finally escaping the motherbar it was stuck in for the last 11 weeks. One side gets toasted, magnitude is hit for W and M. All the ingredients for a big recovery. Only issue is being stuck in last weeks range NASDAQ:PLTR - potential 3-2D for a simultaneous weekly 2-1-2U trigger. Nuclear green on all TFs. Slight room to go to target ATH again, but mainly looking for the weekly inside up measured move, meaning if we go 2-1-2U, we can expect the same move up as we had in the week prior to last weeks inside bar week. Cruise Lines: NYSE:CCL + NYSE:NCLH Weekly hammers. NYSE:RCL Not a clean weekly AS, but similar daily to other names in the industry. Bearish: NASDAQ:TSLA - 3-1 4Hr to trigger MoMo shooter Daily to trigger Shooter Weekly 2-2. Daily PMG to target from ATH Exhaustion. (Big green day for most names Friday, why was TSLA so bearish with such relative strength lately?) NASDAQ:AVGO - Shooter 2U Day to trigger 2-2 shooter week. Huge gap up from earnings. Looking to attack the gap. NYSE:KO - MoMo Shooter 2D day to trigger 2-1-2D week. Having issues making range lately, but daily BF is targeting lower still, and weekly 2-2d has yet to be negated. Inside week will confirm more downside to target our BF magnitudes on the D and W, or it will be negated by a 2U week. Simple plan here. Short under prev week low, exit if back above. NYSE:UBER - MoMo shooter 2d Weekly to reconfirm M 2D and Q 2U going 3. Check Monthly for the BF. Wanna see continuation lower to Q mag at 54.84. No daily AS but 3-1 4HR. May be a slower mover on the list. Basing all my decisions on the weekly as the momo shooter should simply just trigger and work
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alanger17
IWM | Bullish AMEX:IWM Resistance Levels: There is a significant resistance level at around 224.02. The price needs to close above this level to confirm a breakout. Another resistance level is at approximately 233.64. Support Levels: The immediate support level is the trendline, which has been acting as a resistance until now. This trendline is likely to act as a support if the breakout is confirmed. A secondary support level can be seen at around 227.13. Potential Targets: If the price closes above 224.02, it signifies a breakout from the current price channel. The first target after the breakout would be around 233.64. The second target, based on the price projection, would be approximately 244.46. Indicators: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently around 63.34, which is above the neutral 50 level but not yet in the overbought territory. This suggests there is still room for upward movement. The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend. Volume: The volume seems consistent, supporting the upward price movement. Higher volume on a breakout above 224.02 would confirm the bullish sentiment. Conclusion: If IWM closes green today above 224.02, it indicates a breakout from the current price channel, suggesting a potential further upside. The first target would be around 233.64, followed by 244.46. This position could be highly profitable for call options and futures contracts if the breakout is confirmed and sustained.
AMEX:IWMLong
by shkspr
Doubt Me If You Want, But My Strategy Speaks for Itself!NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY Do you see how my Williams CB is one of the best strategies out there for predicting markets short & long term moves? How coupled with my H5 trading strategy it gives me the best chances to beat these crazy markets. Two weeks ago we were at the top and called for a no more than 3% market pullback. I was wrong and right at the same time. We got a pullback but it wasn't what I anticipated but who anticipated the FED nuking the markets yesterday? Nobody but the FED. I show you this so you understand when we get to the barrier we don't know what it's going to be that pulls the market back or causes us to consolidate and peel off the red barrier. BUT, we need to understand where we are at and that running into the barrier is not the time to be adding to trades or exploring new ones. It's the time to take profits, consolidate, and maybe hedge a little. I'm not putting this out to be applauded or to act like I'm some type of Oracle. I simply want to show all my friends who have decided to stick it out with me the last few days when others chose to leave that you can entrust in my strategies and I will teach you everything I know so you can beat the markets on a consistent basis too!
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by RonnieV29
16
THIS IS A FAKE OUT IMO! BUY THE DIPNASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM THIS IS A FAKE OUT! BUY THE DIP 👇 -Strong Economic Fundamentals -Hawkish FED spreading FUD -Same Government shutdown scares every year -2T+ in options (mostly call) expiring today -Gains being pressured to be sold for 24 taxes -Scare meme coin & gambler bro's out the markets -Incoming party is for business & the stock market -VIX spiked faster than Japanese trade crisis -Inflation still coming down -AI is still strong and a catalyst -Company earnings are still hefty -Global markets are curling up not down All of these reasons explain my point of this being a FAKE OUT. I will be buying this DIP because I see nothing CONCRETE! All I see is that the market maker and FED Chair Powell teamed up to be the GRINCH & SCROOGE this Holiday season. Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by RonnieV29
6
Daily Watchlist (12/17/24) + Market NotesSPY - Failing attempts all over to reclaim highs and lows, so we are making new intraday Broadening Formations. The current one as seen in the chart, is looking to potentially head back through previous range if unable to continue to the upside pivots around 608.40 and 609. Given we have FOMC news Wednesday, I am not expecting too much to happen tomorrow as we are stuck in previous range and keep seeing failed attempts to reclaim pivots. Of course anything can happen, but I will strictly be watching individual names only for trades. QQQ - New ATH again today. Nothing special to note besides the fact that tech is obviously leading things this week DIA - Polar opposite of QQQ. Industrials getting slammed again this week as DIA puts in its 8th consecutive Daily lower low IWM - Green today but similar to DIA Overall market notes: Its clear that the market continues to see cyclical names move higher while more defensive and noncyclical names continue lower. In light of FOMC this week, it doesn't seem like any sectors are making too big of shifts besides financials finally seeing some buying again. Mainly just concerned with what SPY does this Wednesday as it seems like usual we are waiting for the news before making the next significant move. WATCHLIST: Bullish : NASDAQ:PLTR - Potential 3-2U daily with a potential 3-1-2U 4HR to trigger the day. FTFC green, but week is inside with lots of room to go for either side to go 2 Bearish : NYSE:UBER - Potential 2-1-2D Daily. Shooter inside day to put week 2D and confirm Q attempting to go 3 after hitting hammer revstrat upside magnitude earlier this Q NYSE:PFE - Potential 3-2D daily to put week 3-2D. Weekly reversal occurred at Q exhaustion, but failed 2 upside attempts now. "Fail one side, target the other" NYSE:PINS - Potential 3-2D Daily to confirm Weekly 3-2-2D in force with magnitude left Notable winners from weekly watchlist (posted Sunday 12/15): ETSY, RBLX, RKLB, OXY, WMT
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
Daily Watchlist (12/17/24) + Market NotesSPY - Failing attempts all over to reclaim highs and lows, so we are making new intraday Broadening Formations. The current one as seen in the chart, is looking to potentially head back through previous range if unable to continue to the upside pivots around 608.40 and 609. Given we have FOMC news Wednesday, I am not expecting too much to happen tomorrow as we are stuck in previous range and keep seeing failed attempts to reclaim pivots. Of course anything can happen, but I will strictly be watching individual names only for trades. QQQ - New ATH again today. Nothing special to note besides the fact that tech is obviously leading things this week DIA - Polar opposite of QQQ. Industrials getting slammed again this week as DIA puts in its 8th consecutive Daily lower low IWM - Green today but similar to DIA Overall market notes: Its clear that the market continues to see cyclical names move higher while more defensive and noncyclical names continue lower. In light of FOMC this week, it doesn't seem like any sectors are making too big of shifts besides financials finally seeing some buying again. Mainly just concerned with what SPY does this Wednesday as it seems like usual we are waiting for the news before making the next significant move. WATCHLIST: Bullish : NASDAQ:PLTR - Potential 3-2U daily with a potential 3-1-2U 4HR to trigger the day. FTFC green, but week is inside with lots of room to go for either side to go 2 Bearish : NYSE:UBER - Potential 2-1-2D Daily. Shooter inside day to put week 2D and confirm Q attempting to go 3 after hitting hammer revstrat upside magnitude earlier this Q NYSE:PFE - Potential 3-2D daily to put week 3-2D. Weekly reversal occurred at Q exhaustion, but failed 2 upside attempts now. "Fail one side, target the other" NYSE:PINS - Potential 3-2D Daily to confirm Weekly 3-2-2D in force with magnitude left Notable winners from weekly watchlist (posted Sunday 12/15): ETSY, RBLX, RKLB, OXY, WMT
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
Get Ready for a MASSIVE Week Ahead! Watch now! 🚨 Get Ready for a MASSIVE Week Ahead! 🚨 Don't miss out on preparing for the upcoming week and the year-end Santa Claus Rally! Make sure to watch this entire video to stay ahead of the game. 📊 In this video, we'll cover: -Major economic news and events -Market trends for NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:SPY , and AMEX:IWM -Latest updates on all current H5 Trades such as NYSE:HIMS NASDAQ:MBLY NYSE:SQ NASDAQ:MARA NYSE:FUBO & more! This video is JAM-PACKED with insights and valuable gems you don't want to miss! 💎 Buckle up and check it out now! 👇
NASDAQ:MARALong
by RonnieV29
58
Watchlist (12/16-12/20) Using TheStratSPY Analysis: Month is 2U but back under previous M high and close to flipping red. Last week was 2D but failed to get to magnitude and closed red, but above the reversal trigger at previous week lows. Daily was 2D on Friday, so the daily actionable signal would be a 2D-2U reversal if buyers were strong enough to make a higher high on the daily come Monday. To get us lower, we have a 3-1 4HR setup as well as a shooter 2U Hourly candle. Trigger and target levels can be seen on the chart. Overall, we have some confliction as the D and W are red while the M is still green. This shows an attempt to flip the month red and we must view it this way until we see a daily higher high. If that were to happen, then we look to see the week flip red and then possibly make a higher high on the week for the weekly reversal back to the upside, which would re confirm the month being 2U and green. Traditional TA traders will see a wedge or bull flag on the daily/4HR, but as Strat traders, we know this is just a lack of strength from either side as we continue seeing failed attempts to make HHs and LLs. Although unconventional, if you check the 3 Day TF through the 8 Day TF, you will see they are all currently inside bars in formation still. We also know that inside bars restart the process of making broadening formations, so now its just a waiting game. We see the current attempt is to make lower lows on the daily since we failed to take highs out after the daily reversal, so we now either take out lows, or fail and move back through previous range to the upside. With conflicting situations like this, you just have to rely on timeframe continuity. Until the M, W, D, and 60 are all the same color, simply fall back on top down analysis and timeframe continuity to see what's really going on regardless of how the charts may look Weekly Watchlist: Bullish: ETSY - 2-1 Week, Failed 2D Day. FTFC Green, so looking for BF expansion on the weekly CRWD - 2-1 Hammer Week. 4HR inside bar. Monthly 3-2-2 still slowly compounding 2Us to Mag RBLX - MoMO Hammer 2U week. 2-1 Daily to trigger week RKLB - 3-2D Hammer Week. Relatively large ATR and high rVol Bearish: MCD - 3-1 Week, Shooter 2U Day PINS - 3-2U failed Week, No Daily AS. Weekly Motherbar issues so caution here PDD 1-2U failed week (Revstrat). No Daily AS. Going for large weekly BF magnitude ROKU - Failed 2U Week. At Monthly exhaustion risk. Daily PMG and gap fill potential OXY - 2-1 Shooter Week. Not much range, but clean weekly AS and all big oil names deep red DDOG - 2-1 Week (Huge red week), Daily 1-3. 2 Daily gap fills, and some weekly lows to target LVS - 2-3 Week. At Q exhaustion. Will be FTFC Red before W triggers the 3-2D Neutral: WMT - 2-1 Week, Daily 3-2D failed. Daily AS could send it back into ATH. Alternatively there is an 11 pivot PMG to the downside + a small gap to fill
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17