TRADE PLAN 01/05/2023TP1> If we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 3863,
we can go for 3880 > 3913 > 3924 > 3943 > 3965 > 3979 > 3995.
>To the upside, the level I'm looking it right now is the 3860, that's the POC of those last 12 days, we need to trade/bid above so we can try to break the LIS 3913/3915, where BULLS are losing the battle.
TP2> If we manage to Trade below MAIN POC 3863,
we can visit 3841 > 3824 > 3800 > 3787 > 3766 > 3728.
>To the downside, the level I'm looking is 3824, as we are already trading below 3960 12 days POC, so once we confirm below 3824, we have to break lower to find strong sellers to push below 3800, where BEARS are losing the battle.
* We are trading in this 100 points RANGE from 3800 to 3900 levels for the last 12 days or about 2 weeks,
I would say that the market structure are balanced, looking for stronger BUYERS or SELLERS around the VALUE AREAS.
For now no direction in the markets, just range trades, we should break anytime soon out of this BOX, and I was hoping that today with FOMC minutes we could go search some new levels, out of balance, but...
Mr Market had other plans, so for now lets trade the levels and see how it goes by Friday NFP.
#tradesafe #sizekills
IWM
2022 Yearly Recap - SPY QQQ DIA IWM DXY US02Y EFFR USIRYY Looking back over the last year (22'), as the saying goes "hindsight is 20-20".
That said, here's the recap on the 22' market cycle against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hiking Cycle (one of the fastest on record) — while at the same time, we (investors) are all asking "What's next for 23'?"
TOP SECTION
DXY - Dollar Index ($104.51) 🔼 ✅ (Green Line)
US02Y - U.S. 2yr Treasury (4.38%) 🔼 ✅ (Black Line)
US10Y - U.S. 10yr Treasury (3.84%) 🔼 ✅ (Blue Line)
EFFR - Effective Federal Funds Rate (4.33%) 🔼 ✅ (Orange Line)
USIRYY - U.S. YoY Inflation Rate, Federal Reserve Target Rate = 2% (7.10%) 🔼 ✅ (Baseline = 2%, Red = Above Target, Green = Below Target)
BOTTOM SECTION
SPY - S&P 500 SPX ES1! (YTD 22', -19.92%) 🔽 🩸
QQQ - Nasdaq NQ (YTD 22', -33.95%) 🔽 🩸
DIA - Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA (YTD 22': -8.77%) 🔽 🩸
IWM - Russell 2000 RUT (YTD 22': -22.57%)🔽 🩸
Prediction(s) these asset classes for 23'? Let me know your macro trade(s) in the comments below! 👇🏼
All Asset Class Chart Template 📊👇🏼
www.tradingview.com
Index Chart Template w/ YTD Return Indicator 📊👇🏼
www.tradingview.com
o' man o' man.if i'm right about this, so many people are going to so devastated.
most market participants are already completely and utterly distraught,
this rally could just simply set them over the edge.
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i'm theorizing a full blown rally in the months ahead, right into april \ may.
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russel200 expanded flat target sits right a the 1.75 algo, which is roughly at $2392
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please don't treat this as financial advice.
consult your financial advisor before making any decisions in this market.
Russel 2000 Bear Market?It seems by all indications that we are heading into a bear market. With raising interest rates, tapering, and shrinking of balance sheets, we will see the Russel take at least a 20% tumble from the current price. The 100MA puts the Russel 2000 at around 1400, and further down on 200MA. A couple of key points:
Only 40% of Russel 2000 are above 50-Day MA.
Only 45% of Russel 2000 are above 50-Day MA.
MACD is crossed and looks bearish.
Fed slowing down its QE.
I was a bit curious why the Russel 2000 took a dip in 2018-2019 with the economy doing so well then. The one thing that I could overlay to make some sense to it was the Federal Funds Rate went up to 2.42%
Even mainstream investors like Jon Najarian has taken short positions in the IWM for February. The economics speak it, the Fed speaks it, the indicators speak it, and now even mainstream economists are accepting there is some market shaking coming.
Spx500 Bear Case.Good evening,
This post is part of a series of requests i recently received.
The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market".
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Talked about this one recently via:
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My estimated top for the Spx500 = $4080~$4742.
High probability target = $4164.50.
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My estimated bottom on this one is roughly between $3550~2576.50
High probability target = $3233.25
🔺
Stocks can go higher, but how much higher?I will start by sharing a Twitter poll, which shows the sentiment we are seeing now. Most think we are going lower. Therefore, the market could go higher in the short term. twitter.com
I believe our target is the critical breakdown level that was never retested on the chart above. The maximum upside is the R3 Monthly Pivot + Yearly Pivot, which will most likely reject the price. Recession or no recession, the market has room to the upside for reasons different from what most people think. Won't get into these things here, as I want to keep this idea simply about the key targets I have for stocks.
For Nasdaq, it is hard to tell how high we will go as there is more than one target. For the S&P500 and the Russell below, the targets are very clear. However, for QQQ - NDX - NQ, more than one gap must be filled.
Based on the above, I expect the market to top about 6% higher from here, and potentially as much as 10% for the Nasdaq 100.
Russel2000 Bear Case.Good evening,
This post is part of a series of requests i recently received.
The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market".
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The russel2000, if I'm not mistaken -
has thousands of small-cap stocks within it,
here's my bearish projection for it.
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My estimated top for the russel2000 = $1876 ~ $2392
High probability target = $2036
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My estimated bottom on this one is roughly between $1527 ~ $1163
High probability target = $1324
🔺
NYSE Index Bear Case.Good evening,
This post is part of a series of requests i recently received.
The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market".
---
Some may ask,
what is the NYSE Index?
👇
The NYSE Composite is a stock market index covering all common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange,
including American depositary receipts, real estate investment trusts, tracking stocks, and foreign listings.
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My estimated top for the New York Stock Exchange Index sits at $15,546 ~ $18,545
High probability target = $16,600
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My estimated bottom on this one is roughly between $12,293 ~ $10,064
High probability target = $11,319
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🔺
Let's learn about flats.good evening,
in preparation for my next few bear posts,
i'd like to talk about the three different types of flats in the markets.
the main reason why i'm bringing this up right now,
is because the USA Indexes are displaying all three of these patterns currently,
so it's important to familiarize yourself with these fractals, for future references.
feel free to share this with your peoples if you find it helpful.
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regular flats :
• A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B terminates near the start of wave A
• Wave C generally terminates slightly beyond the end of wave A
• Wave C needs to have momentum divergence
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 90% of wave A
• Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave AB
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expanded flats
• A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A
• Wave C ends substantially beyond the ending level of wave A
• Wave C needs to have momentum divergence
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 123.6% of wave A
• Wave C = 123.6% – 161.8% of wave AB
---
running flats
• A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates substantially beyond the starting level of wave A as in an expanded flat
• Wave C fails travel the full distance, falling short of the level where wave A ended
• Wave C needs to have momentum divergence
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 123.6% of wave A
• Wave C = 61.8% – 100% of wave AB
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-- full credit to elliottwaveforecast for all of these guidelines
Opening (IRA): IWM December 23rd 156 Short Put... for a 1.67 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 strike in the expiry nearest 45 days paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
This is more about not letting my IWM position get too short delta than about putting on an "ideal" premium selling trade. I still have an IWM short delta hedge on that is marking at around -60 delta (See Post Below) and had only one IWM short put rung on at the December 16th 164 (+23 delta at the moment), so the position was leaning more net delta short than I would like. This long delta additive trade will make my IWM position "net delta flatter."
11/9/22 LTHMLivent Corporation ( NYSE:LTHM )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemicals: Specialty)
Market Capitalization: $5.778B
Current Price: $30.49
Breakout price: $32.90
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $30.10-$26.70
Price Target: $44.80-$46.20
Estimated Duration to Target: 117-125d
Contract of Interest: $LTHM 4/21/23 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.00/contract
11/9/22 DISThe Walt Disney Company ( NYSE:DIS )
Sector: Consumer Services (Cable/Satellite TV)
Market Capitalization: $158.150B
Current Price: $86.75
Breakdown Price ( hold below): $90.20
Sell Zone: $98.10-$89.45
Price Target: $68.50-$64.40 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 98-102d
Contract of Interest: $DIS 2/17/23 85p
Trade price as of publish date: $6.10/contract
11/8/22 ATENA10 Networks ( NYSE:ATEN )
Sector: Technology Services (Information Technology)
Market Capitalization: $1.352B
Current Price: $19.03
Breakout price: $19.10
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $18.20-$16.80
Price Target: $23.00-$23.50
Estimated Duration to Target: 107-116d
Contract of Interest: $ATEN 2/17/23 20c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.45/contract
11/8/22 BABoeing Company (The) ( NYSE:BA )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: $101.091B
Current Price: $169.62
Breakdown price: $171.50
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $159.75-$143.00
Price Target: $199.80-$204.40
Estimated Duration to Target: 56-59d
Contract of Interest: $BA 8/20/23 170c
Trade price as of publish date: $13.30/contract