SHORT | IWM | FED Meeting UpdateAMEX:IWM
Possible Scenario: SHORT
Evidence: Bearish Divergence, Price Action, Money Flow
Timeframe: Before FED meeting in March.
TP: 178$
*This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
IWM
Rolled (IRA): IWM October 1st 161 to the November 18th 163... short put for a 1.10 credit.
Comments (Late Post): Rolled this out at >50% max to the strike in November paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. I might usually just take profit and close this out, but still need small cap long delta for a bit here while I manage my IWM short delta hedge. Total credits collected of 1.62 (See Post Below) plus the 1.10 here for a total of 2.72 relative to a price for the November 18th 163 of 1.71, so I've realized gains of 1.01 ($101) to date.
IWM THESIS SET 12.9.22CPI coming out pre market tomorrow. Catalyst will activate one of these scenarios potentially.
9/11/22 NFLXNetflix, Inc ( NASDAQ:NFLX )
Sector: Technology Services (Internet Software/Services)
Market Capitalization: $103.870B
Current Price: $233.57
Breakout price trigger: $236.60
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $232.30-$211.85
Price Target: $246.60-$250.60 (1st), $298.20-$304.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 13-15d (1st), 54-57d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $NFLX 9/23/22 235c, $NFLX 11/18/22 240c
Trade price as of publish date: $8.00/contract, $20.95/contract
9/11/22 NUENucor Corporation ( NYSE:NUE )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Steel)
Market Capitalization: 37.582B
Current Price: $143.56
Breakout price: $144.60
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $142.30-$134.95
Price Target: $152.50-$154.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 18-20d
Contract of Interest: $NUE 10/21/22 145c
Trade price as of publish date: $7.65/contract
9/11/22 FSLRFirst Solar, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FSLR )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Current Price: $135.82
Breakout price trigger: $138.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $131.00-$122.00
Price Target: $144.00-$145.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 40-43d
Contract of Interest: $FSLR 10/21/22 150c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.60/contract
Don't be surprise if we see Bloody Red on MondayUS500, US100, US30, US2000 all at the trend line resistance. Don't be surprise if we see red on Monday. This is a short term bullish count only if we can hold at the bottom trend line.
Good luck all
IWM short play and double top forming 9.9.22IWM will rebound off a zone and create a double top. The trade is buying and swinging puts, then trailing stop as the market dips next week with CPI #'s
Closed (IRA): IWM October 21st 158 Short Put... for a .73 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 1.59 credit. (See Post Below). Out here at a smidge greater than 50% max. .86/$86 profit.
IWM play pre 9/16 '22 MAX PAIN THEORY 3:1 P/c ratioMM manipulate the market Bullish for the 9/16 options cycle to expire. 3:1 P/C RATIO on IWM.
Opened (IRA): IWM October 21st 158 Short Put... for a 1.59 credit.
Comments: Late post ... . I think I missed this one in "The Friday Frenzy." Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into small caps.
IWM shortMonthly shows a beautiful hammer, however double bottom neck retest is close and may bounce up from there. Therefore, had to move my stop close.
Probably, will consolidate around bottleneck retest and make its decision there.
Ready to flip and go long into wave 5 of uptrend if confirms.
8/31/22 MCKMcKesson Corporation ( NYSE:MCK )
Sector: Distribution Services (Medical Distributors)
Market Capitalization: $52.319B
Current Price: $367.00
Breakout price: $369.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $355.55-$334.35
Price Target: $403.40-$407.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 37-40d
Contract of Interest: $MCK 10/21/22 370c
Trade price as of publish date: $13.90/contract
8/31/22 ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. ( NYSE:ZIM )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: 4.408B
Current Price: $36.09
Breakdown Price: $33.90
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $40.75-$51.80
Price Target: $19.50-$15.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 86-91d
Contract of Interest: $ZIM 12/16/22 30p
Trade price as of publish date: $2.50/contract
8/31/22 XOPSPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Product ( AMEX:XOP )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $144.75
Breakout price: $147.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $140.20-$120.00
Price Target: $166.70-$170.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 76-80d
Contract of Interest: $XOP 11/18/22 145c
Trade price as of publish date: $13.20/contract
8/31/22 XLFSPDR Select Sector Fund - Financial ( AMEX:XLF )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $33.05
Breakout price: $33.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $32.85-$30.65
Price Target: $38.00-$38.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 132-137d
Contract of Interest: $XLF 1/20/23 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.23/contract
Opened (IRA): IWM October 21st 161 Short Put... for a 1.62 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike in the shortest duration expiry paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
8/24/22 UUUUEnergy Fuels Inc ( AMEX:UUUU )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Other Metals/Minerals)
Market Capitalization: 955.43M
Current Price: $7.30
Breakout price: $7.35
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $7.10-$6.10
Price Target: $8.70-$9.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 40-42d
Contract of Interest: $UUUU 10/21/22 8c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.65/contract
8/24/22 OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY)
Sector: Energy Minerals (Oil & Gas Production)
Market Capitalization: 69.778B
Current Price: $74.91
Breakout price: $75.60
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $71.55-$65.95
Price Target: $85.50-$86.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 30-33d
Contract of Interest: $OXY 10/21/22 85c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.87/contract
RTY UpdateRTY MFI is already overbought.
I don't recommend shorting anything but be cautious on small caps. NQ is heading to overbought rather quickly too. We could see some whipsaw to end the week.
Bullish on China though, only because HSI is oversold.
SPY Weekly review and forecast: August 22, 2022Last week brought the first sell side activity the markets have seen in nearly 6 weeks. The market digested comments within the FED minutes as being dovish, and was on track to extend the rally through most of the week. The tone changed on Thursday and Friday and the market was unable to hold the 4300 level. Most of the selling was precipitated by technology and the financials, while energy finished positive on the week. Volatility has also begun to expand as the VIX finished positive on the week. The weekly expected move in the SPY is also greater than last week's by almost a full point. SKEW closed flat-to-down week over week, but is still in an uptrend.
SPY -1.16% (+/- 8.3)
QQQ -2.28% (+/- 8.89)
IWM -2.85 (+/- 4.97)
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Technology -2.5% (+/- 4.09)
Energy +1.26 (+/- 1.26)
Financials -1.69% (+/- 0.83)
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VIX: +12.19% (23.07; ~50% IV Percentile)
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The rally we've seen since June has been impressive, so a pull back was going to come eventually. Its important to zoom out and look at the big picture perspective. The market may have re-entered the sideways channel I outlined at the beginning of the month. I'm looking for this week to have a mildly bearish bias, but most probably staying within the expected move in advance of the FED's Jackson Hole meeting (so think between 4150 - 4300 in SPX). I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the Bonds as well as Energy. If the Bonds continue to fall, it will be more fuel on the inflation fire. With regards to energy, stocks like XOM are at key inflection points on their Volume Profiles; selling in energy now would weigh heavily on the indices.
