Rolling: IWM August 5th 158/187.5 to August 19th 158/192... for a .46 credit.
Comments: Locking in some realized gain and recentering risk/balancing delta. Total credits collected of 2.81. Delta/theta 2.69/10.46.
IWM
Opened (IRA): IWM August 5th 154 Short Put... for a 1.56 credit.
Comments: Adding back in some long delta here in IWM, targeting the <16 strike in the expiry nearest 45 days paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
FED Balance sheet and Nasdaq ComparisonNASDAQ:QQQ
As you can see on the chart, FED balance sheet should be adjusted, as you it just started to go down, but QQQ already is 20% down from the top.
so obviously the bear market just started. and I expect more than 50% now. the most powerful and longest bear market of all time.
*This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
6/26/22 LTHMLivent Corporation ( NYSE:LTHM )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemicals: Specialty)
Market Capitalization: $3.922B
Current Price: $24.25
Breakout price: $25.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $23.70-$20.50
Price Target: $29.30-$30.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 160-171d
Contract of Interest: $LTHM 10/21/22 30c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.00/contract
6/26/22 MSTRMicroStrategy Incorporated ( NASDAQ:MSTR )
Sector: Technology Services (Internet Software/Services)
Market Capitalization: $2.321B
Current Price: $205.44
Breakout price: $222.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $195.30-$135.90
Price Target: $404.50-$418.10
Estimated Duration to Target: 99-103d
Contract of Interest: $MSTR 10/21/22 220c
Trade price as of publish date: $44.80/contract
6/26/22 BABAAlibaba Group Holdings Ltd. ( NYSE:BABA )
Sector: Retail Trade (Internet Retail)
Market Capitalization: $309.183B
Current Price: $117.62
Breakout Price: $120.00
Breakdown Price: $85.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $102.65-$87.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $113.80-$124.95
Price Target: $128.40-$131.70 (1st), $167.50-$171.10 (2nd), $15.70-$14.00 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 29-31d (1st), 117-124d (2nd), 340-356d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $BABA 7/15/22 120c, $BABA 10/21/22 130c, $BABA 6/16/23 100p
Trade price as of publish date: $6.47/contract, $11.98/contract, $14.93/contract
6/26/22 PDDPinduoduo Inc. ( NASDAQ:PDD )
Sector: Retail Trade (Internet Retail)
Market Capitalization: $82.667B
Current Price: $65.96
Breakout price: $71.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $55.15-$31.65
Price Target: $94.60-$98.60 (1st), $115.40-$119.30 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 60-66d (1st), 120-129d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $PDD 8/19/22 80c, $PDD 10/21/22 90c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.85/contract, $4.50/contract
Closed: IWM July 29th 145 Short Put... for a .46 debit.
Comments: Opened for a 1.91 credit (See Post Below); out during Friday's session for .46. 1.45 ($145) profit.
Closed (IRA): IWM July 29th 140 Short Put... for a .53 debit.
Comments: In for a 1.49 credit(See Post Below); out at >50% max here on movement plus volatility contraction. .96 ($96) profit.
$SPY consolidating for next moveThinking another day of chop then possible larger move Friday or early next week.
I like that gap above but trend is certainly down. Perhaps we get the gap fill above before another solid leg down ... keeping it level by level.
Thoughts ?
Closed (IRA): IWM July 1st 154 Short Put... for a .10 debit.
Comments: Opened for a 1.64 credit (See Post Below). Closing here for .10; 1.54 ($154) profit.
Rolling: IWM July 22nd 167.5/172 to August 5th 158/187.5... for a 6.04 debit.
Comments: Rolling out and paying a debit here that is smaller than total credits collected to reduce buying power effect. Up to this point, I'd collected a total of 8.39 in credits, so I'm still net credit on the setup by 2.35, but it's currently marking at 4.57 or so, so I'm down 2.22 on the position at this point. The setup, however, is now "delta/theta happy" at -4.03/12.39 and isn't being such a buying power pig.
IWM Fakeouts Are a Tradeable TrendThe Russell likes its fakeouts. We had two to the upside recently. We could be seeing a fake breakdown developing now. $170 is the level I'll be watching. A close above there on Friday would be a trigger a long with a target of $185-$190.
IWMThe set up from LT support off the bottom channel has Nuked (of course) and I say that b c this year is the year where everything looks like a perfect set up that just nukes. (except oil trades) At this point IWM can still be an over throw, if small caps are pricing in all this inflation & War in Ukraine & recession talk. If the chart is to follow NQ then we have much more pain ahead. Looking at OTC stocks I am really unsure as to how much more pain can be endured. They all seem pretty bottomed. So watching for an MM overthrow here and confirmation would be working the candle sticks back into the LT channel IMO.
Rolled: IWM July 22nd 176 Short Call to 172... for a 1.35 credit.
Comments: Rolling down the untested side of my July 22nd short strangle, the short put leg of which is at the 167.5. Total credits collected of 8.39. End of day delta/theta 7.48/19.31.
RTY UpdateMFI keeps going overbought without dropping which is usually an indicator of a melt up about to happen
NQ is already pretty close to filling the gap, but RTY needs to go pumptarded to fill its gap. I think garbage stocks are going to pop before end of next week, because there's another Fed meeting in July so they go to get that gap fill sooner than later.
Might seem odd coming out of my mouth, but go long on your favorite garbage stock, lol. BTFD!
6/20/22 DQDAQO New Energy Corp. ( NYSE:DQ )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemicals: Specialty)
Market Capitalization: $4.296B
Current Price: $58.44
Breakout price: $59.80
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $55.00-$35.85
Price Target: $79.60-$82.60 (1st), $129.00-$132.80 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 210-218d (1st), 452-476d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $DQ 1/20/23 75c, $DQ 1/20/23 95c
Trade price as of publish date: $7.20/contract, $3.70/contract
6/20/22 KOCoca-Cola Company (The) ( NYSE:KO )
Sector: Consumer Non-Durables (Beverages: Non-Alcoholic)
Market Capitalization: $257.631B
Current Price: $59.43
Breakout price: $63.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $61.30-$56.85
Price Target: $74.30-$75.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 336-352d
Contract of Interest: $KO 6/16/23 60c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.75/contract
6/20/22 MRKMerck & Company, Inc. ( NYSE:MRK )
Sector: Health Technology (Pharmaceuticals: Major)
Market Capitalization: $213.987B
Current Price: $84.62
Breakout price: $91.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $83.60-$79.90
Price Target: $103.20-$105.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 672-696d
Contract of Interest: $MRK 1/19/24 85c
Trade price as of publish date: $10.17/contract
6/20/22 BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company ( NYSE:BMY )
Sector: (Pharmaceuticals: Major)
Market Capitalization: $157.061B
Current Price: $73.77
Breakout price: $76.75
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $73.20-$69.20
Price Target: $79.60-$80.20
Estimated Duration to Target: 92-97d
Contract of Interest: $BMY 9/16/22 80c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.98/contract
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels, and Targets$IWM Analysis, Key Levels, and Targets
I’m calling bottom here…
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I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
THE HUNT FOR "A" BOTTOM?Are you hunting for a bottom in stocks? Were you bullish 6 months ago but have now turned bearish? Are your trading decisions influenced by your feelings and 'current events'? There is a tremendous amount of information written right here on the charts if you know how to look for it. I will help you to see this. The best advice I can give is this: Do not make trading decisions based on what you think "should" be. Do not allow your anger and emotions into this game. You are not going to change the trend. Do not tie "news" to "price". The market is way ahead of what you believe is 'news'.
I will not play the game of "I told you so" but if you follow my TradingView ideas I shared several warnings for a few months about what I was seeing and it looked concerning. So for me personally, whatever dark and terrible news I have bombarding me from any electronic device is actually good news for my trading. It's not wise to trade strictly against sentiment because sentiment and price often move together for a while. But it is useful as an indicator. The put:call ratio is such an example.. as seen on this chart.
Also observe the rate of change at the top. It can serve as a clue as to when we are about to see a very big move within a short period of time. We are at such a place where it looks like it has the potential to bounce. This could actually be very bearish or very bullish. But price is likely about to make a series of large moves in both directions.
It is my opinion that we are at or very near "A" bottom of some kind. But don't misinterpret what I'm saying. Firstly, I am saying "A" bottom of some kind. It could be medium-short term. Secondly, when I say at or near I am referring to time. So maybe now.. this week or next. I don't know. But price can move severely within that time period. Using the Fibonacci retracement levels, I see a few key levels in the S&P 500. Watch the .786. Watch the .618. Watch this zone at 0.5. My original target for a correction were the two horizontal lines at about 3200-3600. Price is within my crosshairs now.
Where and when you buy is important but also HOW you buy. You do not want to chase the falling knife and back yourself into a corner where you are desperate and pressed. Yes I have been there. In my experience it is best to ease into positions that you have a lot of good evidence for. Slowly.. easily.. carefully. If you like options, consider giving yourself a LOT more time to build into a position and also consider how severely options decay. It's not unwise to go out a year or more on expirations so you're not trapped on the very steep decay. Those are just a few tips I can share.
Stay tuned because I will be posting more information here about current market conditions and potential pivots.
I posted this in December to demonstrate some early warnings for what is currently happening.
Opening (IRA): IWM July 29th 140 Short Put... for a 1.49 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in the expiry nearest 45 days to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
