Opening (IRA): IWM August 26th 150 Short Put... for a 1.49 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in the expiry nearest 45 days. I added a rung in this expiry on Friday at the 155, so am just adding a smidge at a lower strike on weakness and uptick in implied volatility.
IWM
7/10/22 DDOGDatadog, Inc. ( NASDAQ:DDOG )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $34.113B
Current Price: $108.29
Breakout price: $110.90
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $103.80-$90.40
Price Target: $116.60-$118.70 (1st), $147.20-$149.90 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-52d (1st), 149-157d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $DDOG 8/19/22 115c, $DDOG 12/16/22 110c
Trade price as of publish date: $9.20/contract, $20.30/contract
7/10/22 TANInvesco Solar ETF ( AMEX:TAN )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $--B
Current Price: $76.68
Breakout price: $78.20
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $71.60-$60.00
Price Target: $82.40-$83.90 (1st), $98.20-$101.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 55-59d (1st), 200-216d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $TAN 8/19/22 80c, $TAN 1/20/23 80c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.50/contract, $8.20/contract
7/10/22 TAT&T Inc. ( NYSE:T )
Sector: Communications (Major Telecommunications)
Market Capitalization: $148.907B
Current Price: $20.80
Breakout price: $21.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $20.50-$18.45
Price Target: $21.60-$21.80 (1st), $23.10-$23.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 132-137d (1st), 286-299d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $T 10/21/22 20c, $T 1/20/23 23c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.61/contract, $0.51/contract
7/10/22 DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.( NASDAQ:DLTR )
Sector: Retail Trade (Discount Stores)
Market Capitalization: $37.582B
Current Price: $167.36
Breakout price: $174.25
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $160.30-$130.35
Price Target: $207.00-$209.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 359-370d
Contract of Interest: $DLTR 1/20/23 175c
Trade price as of publish date: $16.40/contract
Rolled (IRA): IWM July 22nd 169 Short Put to August 26th 155... for a .25 credit.
Comments: (Late Post). Didn't collect much credit here, but this is the highest strike rung of my short put ladder and would prefer rolling it out of harm's way/to a lower cost basis strike since the market's given me the opportunity here. Total credits collected of 4.79 (See Post Below) plus the .25 here for a total of 5.04.
RTY UpdateLOL, i slept in and missed the morning pump. I was all cash.
I think the overlay is a bit too bullish, but I also think the RTY gets a gap fill tomorrow. We could see a possible sector rotation instead of an all out rally.
My play is to short EOD tomorrow, not chasing the pump. Earnings season coming up end of month (EOM), and Fed minutes had nothing positive in it.
Remember the last time the market pumped Fed meeting minutes it was a Thu/Fri pump. I guess the same here.
RUSSELL 2000 respecting FIB levels; ABC may reach 1500 vol zone.The smallcaps Russell 2000 futures RTY1! (also the IWM etf), a leading market indicator like the transports, may complete an A=C correction ending in the volume profile zone near 1500. (IWM seems to be consolidating in tranches of 200…ex…230, 210, 190, now @ 170 & maybe 150 around 4Q2022.) This will complete the final wave 5 of C-wave.
As you can see in this weekly chart, Russell 2000 respects impt FIB levels. 2100 zone is Fib 0.236, 1900 is Fib 0.383, the current 1700 zone is Fib 0.50 & the projected 1500 bottom zone will be Fib 0.618, the most likely zone for a reversal.
THE BULLISH CASE: if Russell 2000 holds the 1700 zone, the bounce will be very quick due to the 2 LOW VOLUME zones. The target will be 2100 with some consolidation near the 1900 zone.
Not trading advice
7/4/22 FDXFedEx Corporation ( NYSE:FDX )
Sector: Transportation (Air Freight/Couriers)
Market Capitalization: $57.955B
Current Price: $223.61
Breakout price: $231.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $219.70-$198.80
Price Target: $270.00-$276.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 266-278d
Contract of Interest: $FDX 1/20/23 220c
Trade price as of publish date: $27.06/contract
7/4/22 MCDMcDonalds Corporation ( NYSE:MCD )
Sector: Consumer Services (Restaurants)
Market Capitalization: $187.076B
Current Price: $252.96
Breakout price: $252.96
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $248.35-$238.25
Price Target: $258.00-$260.50 (1st), $270.00-$275.60 (2nd), $302.60-$308.20 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 21-22d (1st), 54-61d (2nd), 150-159d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $MCD 8/19/22 270c, $MCD 9/16/22 270c, $MCD 12/16/22 280c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.60/contract, $3.60/contract, $4.75/contract
7/4/22 AMNAMN Healthcare Services Inc. ( NYSE:AMN )
Sector: Commercial Services (Personnel Services)
Market Capitalization: $5.130B
Current Price: $114.73
Breakout price: $115.20
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $113.95-$108.40
Price Target: $120.90-$123.70
Estimated Duration to Target: 38-40d
Contract of Interest: $AMN 8/19/22 110c
Trade price as of publish date: $10.80/contract
FED Balance sheet and Nasdaq ComparisonNASDAQ:QQQ
As you can see on the chart, FED balance sheet should be adjusted, as you it just started to go down, but QQQ already is 20% down from the top.
so obviously the bear market just started. and I expect more than 50% now. the most powerful and longest bear market of all time.
*This is my idea and could be wrong 100%