6/5/22 LMTLockheed Martin Corporation ( NYSE:LMT )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: 117.803B
Current Price: $442.69
Breakout price: $446.45
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $439.40-$426.40
Price Target: $474.40-$485.30 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 70-73d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $LMT 9/16/22 445c
Trade price as of publish date: $21.35/contract
IWM
6/5/22 WMWaste Management, Inc. ( NYSE:WM )
Sector: Industrial Services (Environmental Services)
Market Capitalization: $66.068B
Current Price: $159.12
Breakout price: $160.10
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $158.40-$153.25
Price Target: $166.20-$168.80 (1st), $188.70-$190.10 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 55-59d (1st), 166-176d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $WM 1/20/23 160c, $WM 7/15/22 160c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.20/contract, $11.50/contract
Harami cross for the $IWMThe small caps had an impressive rally this week. On Friday, amid general weakness in the markets, the $IWM posted a harami cross. From a technical analysis perspective, this candlestick is a warning sign for a possible reversal. However, in order to get bearish on this sector, we would need to see some continuation to the downside early next week. For now, all that this candle tells us is that the market is somewhat indecisive. We are going from bullish to neutral into next week with regards to the $IWM.
Indices forming an intraday pennantAppears to be an intraday pennant on the 4 major indices (SPX, NDX, DJI, Small Caps). Could go either way either way Monday.
I just have some PTON puts because it's total garbage, but even garbage will float on a rising tide. just a small play.
In any case, I don;t expect the market to do anything in the last hour, but we'll see. My futures indicators are still trending bearish.
IWM/RUT Wyckoff Distribution is BACK!?About 3-4 months ago, I mentioned that the Russell 2k was showing signs of distribution (huge consolidation before a downtrend). I outlined where big money was selling and where they flipped short. Since the breakdown, we have seen nearly 3 months of consolidation. One could argue that the consolidation was symmetrical with higher highs and higher lows. That, my friends, would be the makings of a BEAAAAR FLAAAAG. If this bear flag correctly plays out, the target to the downside would be about 170 which is former resistance AND a previous gap. Closing above the previous local high at 205 is probably a good stop out.
6/1/22 VLOValero Energy Corporation ( NYSE:VLO )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Oil Refining/Marketing)
Market Capitalization: $52.889B
Current Price: $132.55
Breakout price: $135.90
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $128.75-$118.15
Price Target: $186.30-$189.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 314-322d
Contract of Interest: $VLO 1/20/23 145c
Trade price as of publish date: $12.45/contract
6/1/22 IWMiShares Russell 2000 ETF ( AMEX:IWM )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts.Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $$--
Current Price: $184.26
Breakout price: $187.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $183.95-$168.15
Price Target: $189.60-$204.00 (1st), $249.20-$278.80 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 172-180d, 412-422d
Contract of Interest: $IWM 12/16/22 200c, $IWM 6/16/23 210c
Trade price as of publish date: $7.86/contract, $9.41/contract
6/1/22 KRESPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF ( AMEX:KRE )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $--
Current Price: $63.44
Breakout price: $66.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $62.20-$56.55
Price Target: $90.00-$91.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 496-509d
Contract of Interest: $ZM 6/16/23 70
Trade price as of publish date: $4.70/contract
6/1/22 ZMZoom Video Communications, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ZM )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $31.645B
Current Price: $107.65
Breakout price: $127.70
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $106.60-$71.30
Price Target: $189.60-$204.00 (1st), $249.20-$278.80 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 181-186d, 300-312d
Contract of Interest: $ZM 1/20/23 125c, $ZM 6/16/23
Trade price as of publish date: $15.90/contract, $27.10/contract
Rolling: IWM July 1st 158 Short Put to July 1st 173... for a 1.64 credit.
Comments: Rolling up the short put aspect of my July 1st IWM short strangle, the short call of which is at the 194 to cut the delta/theta ratio to around 1:1. Total credits collected of 6.33.
It's now delta/theta -12.03/14.85.
$AAPL Closing the week green now whatApple after about 7 straight red weekly candles and RSI approaching over sold, got a nice and technically expected bounce this week.
Now what ?
Well, best any one can do is play it level to level since my crystal ball is broken.
150 - Big psych level here and prior support, which since broke is now resistance, could easily see rejection here , however given RSI and recent options, my bias is price may stall here, but I think we eventually break this level to the upside.
160 - My bias for a good short entry would start here - reversion to the mean of the 10wkMA and big psych level 160. This would also give the RSI time to average out and the skew pulled back from puts a bit.
167 - In my opinion anything is possible and IF price does get here I am definitely going short, with a break above this level at that point would be going long as AAPL would have reclaimed the 30wk MA and is back to an ATH scenario (again I'm not expecting this but anything is probable)
No trade for me just yet, sitting and waiting to see what next week brings.
Also not that this is something I trade off of , but retail and sentiment is now conditioned to short any rip or pop. Even the comments of Reddit, WeBull, etc. , everyone is buying puts on green days now. I would not be surprised we thus now get a more sustained rally to throw everyone long / close puts, just in time for a violent move down :).
Cheers
$POST Keep on watch (or starter )POST keep on watch for blue sky breakout, I added a starter debit spread 80/85c JUL . Option names aren't extremely liquid so would give it some time as an idea with something ITM (either naked but debit spread is more risk friendly).
Made good money on this name after a whale trade , whale is still there buying the JAN 70 calls and looks like they came back with JAN 80 calls with 383 OI.
5/25/22 ARAntero Resources Corporation ( NYSE:AR )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Oil & Gas Production)
Market Capitalization: $12.969B
Current Price: $41.69
Breakout price: $42.10
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $37.35-$30.90
Price Target: $56.30-$58.70
Estimated Duration to Target: 340-351d
Contract of Interest: $AR 1/19/24 50c
Trade price as of publish date: $10.00/contract
5/25/22 SBSafe Bulkers, Inc. ( NYSE:SB )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: $571.751M
Current Price: $4.72
Breakout price: $4.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $4.20-$4.35
Price Target: $5.55-$6.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 287-295d
Contract of Interest: $SB 1/20/23 5c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.80/contract
5/25/22 ANAuto Nation ( NYSE:AN )
Sector: Retail Trade (Specialty Stores)
Market Capitalization: $6.427B
Current Price: $114.84
Breakout price: $118.10
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $109.60-$96.90
Price Target: $142.80-$144.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 399-407d
Contract of Interest: $AN 1/20/23 110cc
Trade price as of publish date: $20.10/contract
5/25/22 ORLYOReilly Automotive ( NASDAQ:ORLY )
Sector: Retail Trade (Specialty Stores)
Market Capitalization: $39.973B
Current Price: $615.79
Breakout price: $621.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $609.20-$564.80
Price Target: $782.00-$788.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 406-418d
Contract of Interest: $ORLY 11/18/22 630c
Trade price as of publish date: $49.95/contract
$SPY respecting the support line so far!Respecting the downward channel support line so far. Started taking profits on some hedges and adding to longs. Break above 403 and will add more risk long. Sold puts this morning as downside may be capped for now but that doesn't mean we necessarily rip up .
Tough market to trade that's for sure !
Rolled: IWM June 17th 165/200 Short Strangle to July 1st 158/194... for a .90 credit.
Comments: Locking in some realized gain here on this little bounce, recentering side risk, and receiving a credit all at the same time. I rolled both sides to the 16 delta strikes, so that the position is back to delta neutral.
Total credits received of 4.69, relative to a current short strangle price for the July 1st 158/194 of 3.28, so I'm up 1.41 ($141) on the position.
Opening (IRA): IWM July 1st 154 Short Put... for a 1.64 credit.
Comments: Keeping on keeping on ... . I don't have much IWM on, so am selling something new in the July 1st expiry, targeting the <16 delta strike that is paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.