Opening (IRA): IWM May 20th 180 Short Put... for a 1.90 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta in the expiry nearest 45 days until expiry paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
IWM
GOLDEN RATIO TURNS PAST AND FUTURE 2022 All turns past to present and including the PANIC CYCLE FOCUS DATE MARCH 18/21 2020 are moving forward and all within 2 to 13 days on long term basis .I see a rally to a new high if we can hold 21 % decline within the sp 500 this rally will be a min of 14% but no more than 19.8 to 20.5 % from this low . Fractals second basis other than the Golden Ratio and SPRIALS are pointing in the same patterns It will see a very good low on oct 4-10 plus or minus 6 days at most best of trades ! WAVETIMER
Rolled: IWM May 20th 229 Short Call to the 217... for a .78 credit.
Comments: Flattening net delta of my short strangle on this down move. Total credits collected of 1.97. Resulting setup is the May 20th 176/217 with delta/theta of -.52/8.36.
SPX likely just Finished a Cycle HighI have Swing short signals all over the place. SMH, IYT, and XLI leading markets lower to start the Quarter here. The Russel had a real bad day today as the credit markets (junk bonds) are tanking once again. Even Energy looks to be resetting lower.
Opened: IWM May 20th 176/229 Short Strangle... for a 1.19 credit.
Comments: A bit of an experiment here, selling the 90 day duration 2 x expected move strikes in shorter duration. Using the June 30th expiry (86 days) as the basis for this setup, I looked at the strikes nearest the 16 delta in that duration, and then sold premium in those same strikes in the expiry nearest 45 days. The benefit is a higher probability of profit setup, with the trade-off being less credit received.
I'll look to manage it, however, like any other short strangle -- rolling in untested sides, taking profit at 50% max and/or rolling to a delta neutral setup in longer duration for a realized gain and a credit.
4/3/22 NEMNewmont Corporation ( NYSE:NEM )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Precious Metals)
Market Capitalization: 65.607B
Current Price: $82.78
Breakout price (hold above): $80.10
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $77.65-$74.05
Price Target: $89.20-$90.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 65-68d
Contract of Interest: $NEM 6/17/22 90c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.56/contract
4/3/22 CEIXCONSOL Energy Inc. ( NYSE:CEIX )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Coal)
Market Capitalization: 1.350B
Current Price: $38.77
Breakout price (hold above): $38.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $36.35-$31.75
Price Target: $46.20-$47.80 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 49-52d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $CEIX 6/17/22 40c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.50/contract
4/3/22 CCJCameco Corporation (NYSE:CCJ)
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Other Metals/Minerals)
Market Capitalization: 11.562B
Current Price: $29.03
Breakout price: $30.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $27.10-$24.65
Price Target: $34.80-$36.00 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 150-160d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $CCJ 9/16/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.55/contract
4/3/22 BXBlackstone Inc. ( NYSE:BX )
Sector: Finance (Investment Managers)
Market Capitalization: $153.312B
Current Price: $128.13
Breakout Price: $135.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $127.15-$117.00
Price Target: $139.35-$140.80 (1st), $149.60-$151.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 74-77d (1st), 147-150d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $BX 6/17/22 130c, $BX 9/16/22 130c
Trade price as of publish date: $6.65/contract, $9.50/contract
Closing (IRA): IWM April 29th 170 Short Put... for a .28 debit.
Comments: Cleaning up April. Collected a total of 5.63 in credits with rolls. (See Post Below). Closing out here results in total realized gains of 5.35 ($535).
Another IWM false breakout?The Russell 2000 tricked longs back in the fall of 2021 and that "false breakout" led us to a breakdown.
Once again, the break back above the 209.50 level this week may have led to another "false breakout." Can we see a move to the 188.00 level and beyond?
I think bulls have something to think above. Fool me once.
Perfect Retracement for Small Cap Index The Russell 2000 index $IWM retraced and bounced perfectly off the 38% fibonacci level. Actually it bounced twice, which created a double bottom at the 38% retracement level. This strong level of support suggests the bottom may be in and small caps may start to lead the market up again.
RTY UpdateRSI overbought with MFI divergence, yields and oil rising. I don;t think this is sustainable.
Took a small short position, but I think the reversal is tomorrow.
Closed (IRA): IWM April 14th 165 Short Put... for a .20 debit.
Comments: Cleaning up stuff that is approaching worthless ... . Opened for a 1.73/contract credit. (See Post Below). Closing out here results in a profit of 1.53 ($153)/contract. Still left with the April 29th and May 6th "rungs."
IWM: Weakness PrevailingIWM Looking like will lead us to the downside this week. The weakness comes at the top of the macro bear flag we cover in depth here. We post videos every Sunday to get your week ready!
3/27/22 DEDeere & Company ( NYSE:DE )
Sector: Producer Manufacturing (Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery)
Market Capitalization: $133.896B
Current Price: $436.45
Breakout Price (hold above): $436.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $432.50-$421.20
Price Target: $448.80-$450.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 10-12d
Contract of Interest: $DE 4/14/22 450c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.55/contract
3/27/22 GFSGlobalFoundries Inc. ( NASDAQ:GFS )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $42.208B
Current Price: $78.94
Breakout Price (hold above): $77.05
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $74.35-$67.40
Price Target: $90.20-$91.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 40-43d
Contract of Interest: $GFS 5/20/22 80c
Trade price as of publish date: $7.80/contract
3/27/22 MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRVL )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $63.051B
Current Price: $74.37
Breakout Price: $75.15
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $71.80-$65.10
Price Target: $79.80-$80.80 (1st), $86.20-$88.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 30-32d (1st), 58-62d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $MRVL 4/14/22 75c, $MRVL 5/20/22 80c,
Trade price as of publish date: $2.80/contract, $3.05/contract
3/27/22 NVDANVDA Corporation ( NASDAQ:NVDA )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $695.069B
Current Price: $276.92
Breakout price: $283.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $261.80-$240.50
Price Target: $314.80-$316.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 54-62d
Contract of Interest: $NVDA 5/20/22 300c
Trade price as of publish date: $11.65/contract
Closing (IRA): IWM April 14th 160 Short PUt... for a .13 debit.
Comments: Opened for 1.73, (See Post Below); closing it out here for a 1.60 ($160) profit. Still have April 22nd, April 29th, and May 6th rungs on which I'll either close or roll out as I get to them from a duration standpoint.
Rolling (IRA): IWM April 8th 175 Short Put to May 6th 185... for a 1.69 credit.
Comments: With only .17 left in the April 8th 175, rolling it out to the <16 delta May 6th strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected: 4.08 (See Post Below) plus the credit received here of 1.69, for a total of 5.77 relative to the May 6th 185 short put value of 1.81, so I've realized gains of 3.96 ($396) so far.
Closed: IWM April 14th 175/217 Short Strangle... for a 1.84 debit.
Comments: Filled for a 3.68 credit. (See Post Below). Closed out here via a good-until-cancelled order to take profit at 50% max. 1.84 ($184) profit.
