3/13/22 LLYEli Lilly and Company ( NYSE:LLY )
Sector: Health Technology (Pharmaceuticals: Major)
Market Capitalization: $253.61B
Current Price: $266.30
Breakout price: $270.95 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $262.45-$247.10
Price Target: $308.00-$310.40
Estimated Duration to Target: 84-90d
Contract of Interest: $LLY 6/17/22 300c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.90/contract
IWM
3/13/22 SNOWSnowflake, Inc. ( NYSE:SNOW )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $55.263B
Current Price: $180.42
Breakdown price: $185.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $231.00-$193.25
Price Target: $51.20-$48.80 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 111-120d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $SNOW 6/17/22 180p
Trade price as of publish date: $26.75/contract
3/13/22 XOMExxon Mobil Corporation ( NYSE:XOM )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Integrated Oil)
Market Capitalization: $359.517B
Current Price: $84.92
Breakout price: $83.00 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $82.90-$77.15
Price Target: $85.00-$86.20 (Reached), $98.00-$100.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 50-52d
Contract of Interest: $XOM 6/17/22 105c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.25/contract
RTY UpdateIt appears the market has lost all appetite for money losing "growth" stocks that aren't growing. My trade strategy is still valid, short garbage on any pops, they can pump futures but they can't make people buy. Let the algos hold the bag.
I think every garbage stock is going to SFIX it's way to single digits, just gotta avoid the pumps, remember the 3 day short squeeze rule (today was the 4th day, lol)
Euros are bullish and could pump futures, but I don't think gap direction matters if today is any indication. I think the market will be oversold for the Fed press conf Wed, so avoid holding a position Wed afternoon regardless of trend pattern.
This drop has nothing to do with Russia, it was DOCU that caused it. I expect a follow through Monday, though it might reverse in the afternoon. Liquidity for crap stocks disappearing quick, look at AFRM, SMSI, DOCU, etc
Closing: IWM April 1st 194C/200P Short Strangle... for a 16.57 debit.
Comments: This started out as a 200 short straddle that I inverted slightly. Collected a total of 19.32 in credits, so closing out here results in a realized gain of 19.32 - 16.67 = 2.65 ($265). Still have the April 8th 194C/201P inverted on (which also started out as a 201 short straddle).
Rolling (IRA): IWM March 25th 178 Short Put to April 29th 170... for a 1.27 credit.
Comments: The March 25th 178's at >50% max, so rolling out to the <16 delta strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected of 4.36 (See Post Below) plus 1.27 or 5.63 relative to what the April 29th 170 is paying (currently 1.96), so I've realized gains of about 3.67 ($367) so far.
Rolling (IRA): IWM March 18th 181 Short Put to April 22nd 165... for a .69 credit.
Comments: This isn't quite at 50% max, but only has 11 days to go, is in profit, and is the highest strike I've got hanging out there in IWM. I've collected a total of 3.83 (See Post Below) + the .69 here for a total of 4.52 relative to a current price for the April 22nd 165 of 1.80, so have realized gains of 2.72 ($272) in this puppy so far.
Leading Indicators messyWith the current global situation where there are day by day developments, the Leading Indicator panel offers similar dichotomy...
The JNK ETF is heading further down -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is likely to push down in a somewhat limited fashion -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF appears to be bouncing up -> Bullish for equities
The VALUG looking for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF is spiking after a gap up, bullish for TIPS -> Inflation is exploding! Ususally bullish for equities, but in this instance, not likely.
The TLT ETF is bottom feeding, and there is a MACD bullish divergence -> this suggests that the fear is not yet great enough for a flight to safety. Not yet.
The VIX just broke out of a trend line and is pushing towards 45.
The HG1! copper futures suggest an anomalous accumulation of copper, maybe forerunning the equities market upwards, but otherwise, if a general reflection of commodities rocketing in prices.
Overall, Bearish bias on equities, with the chance of a quick rebound soon... but not before a spike down first.
Totally tied to the Russian Ukraine events for now.
$IWM Key Levels, Analysis & Targets$IWM Key Levels, Analysis & Targets
My targets for the next swing.
Target 1- 184.57
Target 2 - 159.26
Support around 142 (not labeled today)
Let’s see what the IV is at the time when it hits to determine sell targets.
GL & happy swinging…
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On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
ONLY ADD at support levels & FIB levels… labeled (most of the time)
(Support=Green, Resistance=Red, Trendlines=Blue) Fib will be labeled if any and their colors will vary.)
I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
3/6/22 TECKTeck resources Ltd ( NYSE:TECK )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Other Metals/Minerals)
Market Capitalization: 22.179B
Current Price: $41.49
Breakout price: $38.65 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $40.30-$37.10
Price Target: $30.80-$31.20 (Reached), $38.20-$38.90 (Reached), $46.00-$47.80 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 21-22d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $TECK 4/14/22 43c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.18/contract
3/6/22 BOXBox, Inc. ( NYSE:BOX )
Sector: Technology Services (Information technology Services)
Market Capitalization: 4.057B
Current Price: $27.36
Breakout price: $28.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $26.75-$24.40
Price Target: $30.00-$31.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 73-75d
Contract of Interest: $BOX 5/20/22 26c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.85/contract
3/6/22 XUnited States Steel Corporation ( NYSE:X )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Steel)
Market Capitalization: 8.198B
Current Price: $31.42
Breakout price: $30.55
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $29.45-$26.95
Price Target: $38.00-$39.30
Estimated Duration to Target: 65-69d
Contract of Interest: $X 5/20/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.50/contract
3/6/22 AALAmerican Airlines Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAL )
Sector: Transportation (Airlines)
Market Capitalization: $9.471B
Current Price: $14.59
Breakdown price: $14.70
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $15.40-$17.00
Price Target: $11.20-$10.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 112-116d
Contract of Interest: $AAL 6/17/22 15p
Trade price as of publish date: $2.26/contract
$PLTR Bull ThesisI like the chart on this one.
Might retest 11-11.50 support before climbing its way up to fill the gap.
I would like to see this one hold the 12$ area, create a new demand zone there.
If the war doesn’t escalate (I genuinely hope so) I think the market priced in the rate hikes. So we might get a direction soon.
Good luck traders!
RTY MFI OversoldRTY MFI went oversold and now bouncing up. Indication of a melt up when RSI doesn't go oversold.
Odd thing is about half my board is red even though small caps are up 1.5%. That's really unusual, but looks like the garbage stock dump is done for the day.
Gotta headache so heading back to sleep, good luck
Small-Caps Are Soon Looking To RallyWe have a Double Bottom at the 800 Day Simple Moving Average and at the PCZ of a Bullish ABCD and are trying to break free from a Downtrend we've been in for the last several weeks if all goes as expected we will rally towards the 200 Day Simple Moving Average up near $2,220