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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-9 Noon Update : Possible SqueezeThis quick update covers SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and NVDA. Boy, what a change in price range compared to the last few weeks. Looks like ht markets have settled into a deep sleep today. I still believe the Breakaway pattern could really make a move in the last 30 to 40 minutes of trading. A solid squeeze potential is available to price if the short trading pressure starts to unwind before the weekend. Watch how this plays out at the end of the day, and remember that next week should see solid rallying trends. Have a great weekend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-9 : Inside Breakaway VolatilityToday's Inside Breakaway pattern requires price to open within the body of yesterday's candle. Therefore, we need to see price move below $530.65 before the 930 opening bell in NY. If this happens, then the Inside Breakaway pattern is ready to play out, and I believe we have a much stronger chance (about 75%) for the price to rally higher today (leaving only about a 25% chance for a broader market pullback). The Current Flag formation on the SPY (and other major symbols) may present an extended range of volatility today and on Monday. I'm suggesting today's Inside Breakaway pattern will resolve to the upside. But I'm also warning there is about a 30% chance the markets will FLUSH-OUT to the downside today before resolving back into a Bullish price trend. The reason I'm making this suggestion/warning is because of the Flag pattern that is currently playing out. The closer we move toward the Flag Apex, the more likely we will see broader price volatility and bigger price swings. It is very common for price to become extremely volatile near Flag Apexes. This happens because the price has been coiling into the Flag Apex range for many hours/days and potentially weeks. That energy, when released, usually prompts a fairly large volatility range. Today, I warn that the $524-525 should act like a make-or-break level for Bullish or Bearish trending. I cover the SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and more in today's video. Remember, I'm trying to teach you techniques you can use for the rest of your life while showing you what I see on these charts. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by BradMatheny
2
Was that it for $IWM? Do we correct before the real run?While I do think that IWM is the place to be over QQQ , I think this run has gotten a little ahead of itself. I noticed something interesting today on the chart, if you look at it on the 6hr or 4hr, you'll noticed we tried to break above resistance on the 9am candle, and rejected hard back below it. This leads me to believe that the next move from here is actually down, not up. If we zoom out, the chart looks extremely similar to how it did before the covid crash. We formed a high, went down and v bottomed up into what looked like a breakout (Feb 2020), but instead formed a double top and then rolled over hard. Now we've pretty much made the same move, we formed a high in 2021, corrected, v bottomed in Oct 2023 and now we're at the exact level where a double top could take place from the high that was formed in Jan 2022 before price broke down. So will we have another covid style crash that brings price back to $150 or lower? TBD, but I have that feeling...
AMEX:IWMShort
by benjihyam
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-2 : Breakaway In Carryover ModeAs we have all experienced over the past 6+ days - outside news events can (and often do) disrupt my SPY Cycle Patterns. I've talked about the Kamala-Crush event (just 10+ days ago) that disrupted market trends after Biden stepped down from running for POTUS in 2024. I've talked about how capital would shift away from risks because of the sudden shift in expectations. I've talked about how this shifting capital would likely benefit the US market and what I call (major global economies) - where capital may rush into areas considered safer than most of the rest of the globe. Then, we saw a bloody attack on Israeli children turn the world upside down with the threat of an Israel/Iran conflict. We are now seeing Japan really become an issue with the BOJ attempting to manage risk factors related to their economy. In my opinion, the past 10+ days have been a series of minor crisis events (some a bit more major than minor) that have played out to disrupt the US/Global markets with huge volatility. We don't normally see 2.5 to 5.5% price swings - EVER. These types of price swings are MASSIVE. We are living through a disruption that may go down in history related to a global shift in expectations. But, at the same time, we've only seen the US markets fall 3.5% from the recent highs. Certainly not a CRASH event (yet). Honestly, I don't expect my SPY Cycle Pattern to play out very well today. I believe these outside factors are really driving price action and I've clearly tried to highlight that in this video. If & when the markets settle and move back into more normal types of price trending (away from outside factors driving price trend) - the SPY Cycle Patterns will likely fall back into a better predictive mode. As I stated, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not 100% accurate all the time. The past 10-15+ days have been very unusual (to say the least). We've seen a series of events that are really unprecedented (starting with the Kamale-Crush). Buckle up. Today could be a very interesting day if support holds. We may see the SPY attempt to rally back above $552-554 at some point. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 21st —>July 26th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/21/2024) **SPX**-Rotation into small caps and industrial stocks continue, which led to more sell off in SPX We have a lot of earnings coming up this week so that can shift the direction of the market as well. Next resistance $5655and $5688 Next support $5521 and 5428 Weekly Sentiment = Bearish **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY- Looks like the dollar index found support as the euro weakens. Which means we could see further drop in SPX. Next resistance $105.90 Support $104 Sentiment = Crossover to upside **Put to call Ratio: 1.31 —> 1.15 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 56—>49**
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
Is the market crashing? The SPY and IWM have completely diverged. On the back of rate cut expectations, many investors are piling back into the junk and high beta names. A clear relative strength move has occurred in small caps: IWM Whilst the megacap stocks have been sold off. The SPY sliced through the 50 MA yesterday and cofirmed the break below. Although this is typically bearish, we are getting into an area of oversold support. If the SPY gaps down tomorrow, I think traders will be buying the dip with both hands. The IWM has blasted above the 50MA, basically moving the exact opposite of the S&P500. The question remains....are small caps going to hold their gains inside of the weekly topping tail?
AMEX:IWM
by Trading-Capital
MidCap vs. LargeCap. Technical & Fundamental Levels to WatchThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024. As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD is about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50 gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC). By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500. Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999. As of June 30, 2024 small caps price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.10, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet, while Total US Market (Russell 3000) P/B ratio is 4.42. I'll be brief. Perhaps it will be the briefest brief over the past ten god years I'm here on TV. DON'T MISS IT, AS IT ONE PER LIFE OPPORTUNITY. The main technical graph is ratio between RUT (Russell 2000 Index) and S&P500 Index, and it back to support that was never seen over the past 25 years, since March 1999. What's happened with market at these times? ⭐ Nasdaq Composite Index doubled in price over the next 12 months (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 4x down. ⭐ S&P500 Index printed +20 per cents (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 2x down. ⭐ March 1999 was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for Small caps vs Large caps. Will history repeat itself..? Who knows... But personally I believe - Yes, it can.
TVC:RUT
by Pandorra
Small 'n Furious. Early 2020's Signaling A Big Midcap Run AheadThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 is about 2% compared to a 7% gain in the S&P 500. By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500. Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999, which was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for small caps. As of January 31, 2024 small caps price-to-book ratio is 2.01, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet. Like a sensationally increased shares of Supermicro NASDAQ:SMCI or e.l.f. Beauty Inc NYSE:ELF , I believe many other small cap stocks can be the best ideas for 2024, in part because of that participation in the ongoing stock market rally is improving and is no longer concentrated in just ultra-mega-cap tech stocks, like it was in 2023. If so-called breadth improves in the stock market, then small cap stocks will catch a bid. There are three factors will help to boost small-cap stocks in 2024. First, fund flows into the stock market are necessary for small cap stocks to outperform. If retail funds aren't flowing into the stock market, then funds likely aren't flowing into small cap stocks. That have changed already in late 2023 as investors start to warm up the stock market. To be clear, let's take a look at lower technical graph, so-called "AUM", or AMEX:IWM assets under management chart, that is one of the most important ETFs metrics. While it's been correlated pretty well with IWM price action over the past two years, last December has changed the rule, as managed assets smartly jumped to almost historical highs. Second, small cap stocks are highly levered and tend to have a higher cost of capital, so a decline or no more hikes in interest rates should benefit small cap stocks much more than large cap stocks. To be clear, let's compare two graphs: for actual U.S. Interest Rate and Expected on Dec, 2024 Interest Rate. Finally, an expansion in economic growth could be a "huge tailwind" for small cap stocks as they are highly exposed to the domestic economy. An overlooked area of the stock market is set to soar in 2024 after significantly underperforming the S&P 500 last year. In technical terms, AMEX:IWM graph is near to break its 52- and 104-weeks highs, to deliver the price 50 percent higher after a breakthrough, like it did it before, on the hottest ever edge of 2020 and 2021.
AMEX:IWM
by Pandorra
6
Opened (IRA): IWM August 16th 191 Monied Covered Call... for a 187.46 debit. Comments: (Late Post). Sold the -75 call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 187.46. Max Profit: 3.54 ($354) ROC at Max: 1.89% ROC at 50% Max: .94% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max on the entire setup (stock + short call) as a unit, but won't hesitate to roll out the short call if in profit to keep my break even at or near where the underlying is currently trading.
AMEX:IWMLong
by NaughtyPines
Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish HugsSmall caps still look like good long-term play despite Russell 2000 backlog in the first half of 2024 vs Large Cap S&P500 Index (SPX) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and Nasdaq-100 indices (SPX). As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD return was about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50% gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC). By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500. Thursday was a historically strange day in the stock market. That may be good news. 👉 The Russell 2000 rose more than 3%, while struggles for Big Tech stocks weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. At the same time, every stock in the so-called Magnificent Seven fell, including a more than 5% decline for Nvidia and a 2.3% drop for Apple, which dragged down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. 👉 Thursday was just the 2nd day in history since 1979 when the Russell 2000 rose more than 3% while the S&P 500 declined. The split trading came after the June report for the consumer price index early Thursday showed headline inflation declined last month and is now up about 3% over the past year. 👉 The Nasdaq Composite underperformed the Russell 2000 by more than 5 percentage points in what appears to be largest ever daily gap on record. The only other time the gap came in above 5 percentage points was in November 2020 (where broad stock rally began), right after Pfizer shared positive results from a Covid-19 vaccine trial. What is The Russell 2000 Index in US stock market universe?! 👉 The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index. 👉 The Russell 2000 Index represents just as low as 7% of the total market capitalization, however it includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership (appr. two-third of The Russell 3000 Index components). 👉 The Russell 2000 is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set. Russell 2000 Index characteristics (as of June 30, 2024) Price/Book: 2.10 Dividend Yield: 1.44 P/E Ex-Neg Earnings: 16.90 EPS Growth - 5 Years: 14.14 Number of Holdings Russell 2000: 1,921 Russell 2000 Index Technical aspects In technical terms Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish Hugs
FX:US2000
by Pandorra
SPX & NDX to SHORT TVC:DJI NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX Rising wedge pattern forming in S&P 500.....big banks price target forecast for fiscal year 2024 were $4800-$5600 ....eventually hitting all PT mid 2024......S&P500 fell last week and DJI rose last week with 4% percentage difference which means investors or big money booking profits from tech and large weighted stocks in S&P 500 and investing in small caps and value stocks because of low inflation and hoping rate cuts soon. NASDAQ100 just witnessed bearish engulfing candle on thursday 11th july 2024....engulfing previous 4 days candles. Read:https://www.tradingview.com/news/benzinga:1590409c1094b:0-ai-super-bulls-pay-attention-to-the-biggest-divergence-since-2001-tsla-call-buyers-crushed/
SP:SPXShort
by MAFIA_TRADER074
3
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 14th —>July 19th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/14/2024) **SPX**- As we predicted last week, market was bullish, We also saw lower than expect CPI and PPI data which pushed the chance of a rate cut to 88% in September. Due to the chance of rate cut actually happening, we are seeing rotation into small cap stocks and industrials. Next resistance $5626 and $5655 Next support $5490 and 5385 Weekly Sentiment = Slightly Bearish **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY- As rate cut chances increase and JPY FX started to increase, we are starting to see weakness in the dollar. Next resistance $105 Support $104 Sentiment = Oversold **Put to call Ratio: 1.56 —> 1.31 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 54—>56**
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade 7/12 - Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern should be very interesting. Do we carry over the deep selling pressure from yesterday or do we reject the downward price trend and revert back to the previous bullish trending. I expect a reversion back to the bullish trending setting up today. If the overnight price action were to continue downward today, the emotional selling pressure from yesterday would have been more evident. I believe the price will attempt to find support today and could move into a short squeeze later today - setting up a possible recovery rally above $565 on the SPY today. Of course, it is almost impossible to accurately predict future price trends, so I'm doing my best as we see this massive volatility hit. Remember, I'm trying to help you learn to become a better trader by watching prices, learning the techniques I try to teach, and applying the best techniques possible to keep you on the right side of the price trend. Of course, if we do see a rejection of this downward price move, it will become evident before Noon ET. If not, we may be in for an even deeper downward trend. This is why I clearly suggested traders learn to allocate funds properly. Learning to reduce trade sizes while volatility increases is critically important—unless you like blowing up your account. So, buckle up.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
18
Short QQQ, Long IWM?The long tech trade seems to be coming to an end here. If we continue to reject this trendline, then I think the Mag 7 and Nasdaq trade could be over and you'll be better off longing "value" going forward. On an individual stock basis, there's a number of names that look to be forming bottoms in the value space and a number of stocks (META, NFLX, NVDA, etc.) that all look to be forming tops. Time to rebalance the portfolio around value? The chart should be the guide should it reject and fall from here.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by benjihyam
2