$PLTR Pulling Back to Pivot / Breakout AreaNYSE:PLTR Here is a strong one for your watch list. This is perfectly normal action (so far) for a stock to pull back to its breakout area. It is pulling back on declining volume. All this is textbook action.
I will be looking for the resumption of uptrend before I get involved. That could take a day, a week, or more. Patience will be key. I will update this idea if / when it looks to me to get involved. All TBD.
For those interested, the chart set-up I am using is the LevelUp All-in-One Charting Tool here on TV.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
IWM
$DOCN Base on Base Ready to Breakout?I got into this one on Mar 6th when it re-took the 20 EMA (green) where it also found support at the 50 DMA (red). My plan was to bring up to a full-sized position on a breakout over 41.07. However, on the 13th when it did break above that it promptly pulled back. Fast forward to today once it moved back over Friday’s high (which again found support at the 20 EMA) I did make it a full-sized position.
The true breakout is yet to come. It needs to close over 41.07 for that to happen. From the low in November to today this stock is up over 100%. I think it can double again. My plan is to add anytime it bounces back off the 20 EMA. My stop will be on a “decisive” close under the 20 EMA but not more than 5% loss, whichever is less.
This may be one you want to look at. If so, make it your own trade and follow your own rules.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
$SCHW Cup with Handle FormationIf you look at this chart of Schwab, you can easily see the cup w/ handle formation. It has broken the blue downtrend line and is taking on good volume this morning. I have started a one-half size position here as the risk reward is exceptionally good. My stop will be below the most recent low which also corresponds with the 20 EMA (green). This could easily move to upper band of resistance around 71.40. All TBD.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
$QQQE & $RUT show breadth is not as bad as they're saying$QQQW is the equal weight NASDAQ:NDX and it is at an all time high, forming a cup. The question is, "Will it form the handle & breakout"?
TVC:RUT is in an uptrend but facing trouble at resistance.
This shows that breadth is not as bad as they paint it to be. However, it could be a lot better.
AMEX:IWM
$Z Regains 50 DMANASDAQ:Z has had a nice move off its recent bottom of around 76%. Sorry to say I missed it. However, it has now been consolidating those gains for about 80 days now. It recently dipped below the 50 DMA (Red) and has now recovered for the last three trading days. I like that the 5 DMA (White) is now above all the Moving Averages. I have started an early entry here in anticipation of a breakout above the blue horizontal line above. All TBD. I will place my stop on a close below the 50 DMA which makes for a good risk reward trade.
See Notes on chart for more details. The chart I am using is LevelUp All-In-One available here on TV. It has a lot of information at a glance all built in.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
IWM Canary in the coalmine 5th wave diagonal still formingTOPThe iwm the index most quoted this year to move up %50% by most of the Talking wall cnbc well now trick and trap is now setup to take the $
Opening (IRA): IWM June 21st 169 Short Put... for a 1.63 credit.
Comments: Laddering out at intervals, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
Will start looking at adding in shorter duration if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on.
$IBM 3-Weeks Tight PatternStodgy old NYSE:IBM has had quite a run over the last few months. I am sorry to say I have missed it. Earnings are now out of the way and as you can see, we have a 3-weeks tight pattern. It has recently been setting new 52 week highs as well.
If you are a Wiiliam O’Neil follower, he states in his writings that a 3-weeks tight pattern can lead to some serious gains going forward. If you like you can read about it here:
www.investors.com
In any event, I have started a ½ half sized position here and have my stop just below the most recent low. Seems like a pretty good risk reward to me. But it’s all TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking. For those wondering, the chart I am using is LevelUp right here on TV. You might want to research it, I find it helpful.
$SPX and Economic DataI do not know how long this has been available on @TradingView , but I just discovered it and wanted to make sure if you didn't know about it, I would bring it too your attention.
On the SP:SPX chart at the bottom when economic data is going to be announced or recently announced, click on the "Flag" icon(s) to see what it is. For example, jobless claims, unemployment, CPI and a host of others.
I hope this post helps someone. Great Tool TV!
Okay, for some reason when I post this chart the flags did not show. But look at your own SP:SPX chart and you will see them.
SPY Correction Coming?Hello everyone!
First two new charts for 2024. Another year another upside logic market. We're breaking ATH with continually decaying economic data, new banking troubles, new wars, and an election year and markets ignore it all. It's a Fed controlled market so mysterious!?
Anyhow, in this chart I did a vague not so accurate EW that began Jan 2022 that bottomed in Oct 2022 which basically bounced off the Feb 2020 highs which pushed us into this new bull market. We finally broke the ATH for the S&P today with 5015ish, which makes me believe we should soon see a corrective wave hit.
The first support will be early Jan support of 475. If this stays within this channel, we should see the correction over (C) at the same level as (2) of the bear market of 2022 which is March/April of 455ish giving us about a 10% correction.
Now, this is all IF markets go as planned and there are no external factors influencing selling such as a larger scale geopolitical war, banking failures and so on. This is based off a market that is going at the current pace.
That being said, I do see a major geopolitical event that will shake markets to their core but until then, we base our market moves on the Feds dovish nonsense.
Technicals:
- RSI, MACD are about peaked.
- VIX is at critical levels
SPY IWM QQQ analysis : Blowoff top?SPY & QQQ saw negative reversal today despite the strength in semis.
Major resistance is in play.
IWM failed breakout on watch?
$AAPL Ready for Bottom Fishing?NASDAQ:AAPL I like how this is setting up. It looks like it has held the $180 “area” for a month now. It has had some good rallies from that area. I am looking for it to break above that steep blue downtrend line. It has captured the 5 DMA (white) and looks like it could take the 10 EMA too. All TBD.
My plan is to go long on a break of the downtrend line with a stop just below that day’s low. If the market is going to move higher $APPL needs to participate, IMO. Of course, we must wait and see.
The chart I am using is LevelUp available here on TV. Checking it out, I think you will like it as well as I do.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
$PFE Ready for Bottom Fishing?NYSE:PFE is certainly a dog but, it has put in a higher low and the moving averages are starting to turn up. I like to go bottom fishing occasionally. PFE is my new candidate.
I have an alert set just above the current price where it may move above short-term resistance, around the thin blue line.
If it triggers and I take this trade, I can put a stop close by at either the day low or the previous day’s low. All TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
Opening (IRA): IWM May 17th 170 Short Put... for a 1.74 credit.
Comments: Back to short puts here, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Just gradually building a position here at intervals.
$ILMN Ready for a Base Break?Looking at this weekly chart it looks to me that sellers finally capitulated the week of November 13, 2023. Since then, it is mostly green accumulation, and it is holding price on lower and lower volume.
You can see the flat base as identified with the LevelUp chart. I had a position earlier this week and stopped myself out for no gain. I re-entered today in anticipation of the breakout around $150.
I like these early entries as I can set my stop just below the weekly low for a minimal risk to reward. It is one you may want on your watchlist.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
IWM 5TH WAVE DIAGONAL HAS ENDED I now can label the rally as ENDED in the IWM . Most are looking at this rally as a break out I am worried if this breaks from here .If it does based on the P/C models we would break and it would be UGLY .
IWM long 170 . add 162 can keep sl at 154 , we are back at June 2018 lets in this snoozefest of an index, maybe time to wake up when nothings in its favour ,
contra call
Opening (IRA): IWM April 19th 176 Monied Covered Call... for a 171.23 debit.
Comments: Buying stock and selling the -75 call against to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta put. This setup gives me a slight bump in premium over selling the 25 delta put due to call IV skew, along with built-in position defense with the short call.
Laddering out over time after flattening out at the end of the year. I'll naturally look to add in shorter duration if I can get in at strikes/cost basis below what I currently have on, but will probably continue laddering out to the end of the second quarter (June) for a bit here.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; look to roll out the short call to reduce cost basis further should price traverse the short call strike (since extrinsic is highest in at-the-money strikes).
$XLB Breaking Out on Weekly ChartAMEX:XLB a basic materials ETF has been basing for almost a year. Today it broke out just above the most recent flat base. As auto generated by this LevelUp chart.
I have started a ¾ sized position as it is a slower mover so I can go bigger to start a position. My stop is just below the most recent low, which is just over a 5% stop loss.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
IWM INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS CONTINUATONHere is IWM bouncing off of the 5ema while also in the process of confirming an Daily inverse head and shoulders pattern. The inverse head and shoulders will be confirmed once price breaks 199.53 and this could give IWM a chance for continuation to $205+.
Russel 2000 WeakLet's take a look at the Russel 2000. This index seems to be the only one between the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P that is failing to break to new ATH while they are.
What we're seeing is a triple top/triple resistance in Aug 2022, than again February 2023, and again August 2023 which was confirmed with a break down to the lows of October 2023 before more manipulation came into play. Some will say inflation is declining and talks of rate cuts seems to be the reason markets rose, but from what we are hearing today from the Fed is that rate cuts aren't likely as they continue to backtrack and downplay rate cuts.
Perhaps, they know something before we do... perhaps double peak inflation like the 1970s? Just as everyone believes its declining, surprising new data comes out that proves otherwise? Let's see.
Once again we see the Russel 2K failed more recently to break and hold above 2020 with constant rejections. This would be the 4th rejection and we could be on the 5th rejection. And why not? Banks once again are starting to shake, with JPMorgan losing deposits, NY Community Bank failing, banks invested in CRE are tanking and this before the big ending to their Bank Term Funding Programme (BTFP) officially ending. Look at the chart for it, it spiked in March 2023 with the failure of SVB, and it is spiking once again Jan and Feb of 2024. Something coming down the pipelines?
I shudder when I see markets breaking ATH, because it has ALWAYS meant markets are more vulnerable to bad news (be it financial, economical, or geopolitical). What we're witnessing is a market that is getting fundamentally weaker and weaker. The economy does not support equities hitting ATH, as earnings are revised lower, personal debt is $17 TRILLION dollars (an ATH) and personal savings are at an all time low. This is not including the decaying jobs market, retail, national debt, manufacturing, consumer sentiment and so on. The floor is a 1 centimeter sheet of ice and it's warming up. This bubble is poised to pop any moment now.
My advice
Obviously, be vigilant. If you are holding positions from a lower price point and you are making profit, I say hold until whatever event happens and breaks the glass floor. If you are new money looking to invest, I can not suggest investing now at the top with such toxic economy and financials. Do your own research, look at the economic data and see if any of it or at least majority of it gives you peace about investing. People are broke, debt is exploding so retail will inevitably collapse and since we're a retail based economy, you can imagine what comes next.
Targets for Russel 2K - IWM
1) 1915, if we break that then
2) 1730, if we break that then
3) 1680, if we break that then
4) 1630, if we break that then run for the hills.
Opening (IRA): IWM March 15th 183 Monied Covered Call... for a 179.87 debit.
Comments: Doing another one of these in March with a short call strike and cost basis better than what I currently have on at the 186.
Selling the -75 delta call, buying a Johnny one lot to emulate a 25 delta short put in order to take advantage of call side IV skew.
3.13 max profit on BPE of 179.87; 1.74% ROC at max; .87% at 50% max.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out the short call to reduce cost basis further in the event price breaks the short call.
Opening (IRA): IWM March 15th 186 Monied Covered Call... for a 181.70 debit.
Comments: Buying stock and selling the -75 call again to emulate a 25 delta short put that is "defense ready" via roll of the short call.
4.30 ($430) max on buying power effect of 181.70; 2.37% ROC at max; 1.18% at 50% max.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call on price's traverse of the short call strike to reduce cost basis further.
