$LLY looks ready to breakout$LLY daily chart. IT closed nicely on Friday even though most of the stocks were down a lot. After an up move, it is now moving sideways inside this rectangular range. Looks ready for next upmove once we break this range on the upside. Once we break above 335, looking for a 8% up move in this one.
Ixic-nasdaq
The end of MMTThis is quite symbolic graph comparing NASDAQ Composite Index to the interest rates since the end of gold standard in USA in 1971 and beginning of the Modern Monetary Theory where FED economists thought country can't bankrupt because always more money can be printed.
Each time since 1971 when there was a crisis and stock market going down the best solution was QE (quantitative easing) to flood economy with more printed money, each time however decreasing the living standards for people because of inflation .
And here we are now when the rates are nearly zero and we are facing next big crisis, but first time since 1970's according to MMT the central bank can't lower interest rates because we are already at the bottom, there is no speace for easing. How this will end? Nothing good is waiting for us in the nearest future in my opinion.
There is high inflation and to stop it the interest rates would have to be much higher, even double digits in the US and Europe but central banks won't like to do this because the countries have huge debts and high interest rates means they could just go bankrupt (which would be the best option - let it bankrupt and clear this economy).
I think hitting the ground will be very hard.
First Time This Has Ever Happened for Tech StocksSQQQ is the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) inversely. When tech stocks fall, SQQQ rises. Traders therefore use SQQQ to short tech stocks.
This is the first time, in its 12-year history, that SQQQ shows a fully red heatmap of the daily timeframe. A fully red heatmap represents extremely overbought conditions.
This is worse than the bottom in March 2020 and the bottom in 2018. This heatmap reflects that too many traders are too fearful of tech and growth stocks right now as they have all switched to shorting them.
Although it's hard to predict bottoms, this indicator coupled with the extremely low NDTH value (the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average) could indicate that peak fear is occurring right now and that a potential rally will occur soon. The last time the NDTH was this low was on the exact day of the March 2020 bottom. Therefore, even in a recession, these values suggest bottoms.
Tech Stocks This chart highly suggests that capitulation and peak fear is finally here.
This is the chart of SQQQ, which is the inverse derivative of QQQ, which in turn tracks the Nasdaq 100. There's virtually no way that SQQQ's price can sustain a gap up like this on a weekly time frame. The gap is extremely likely to close and the price will move back below the Ichimoku Cloud resistance by the end of the week. Those who are just now selling tech and growth stocks because of inflation are capitulating. Inflation and rate hikes have been evident in the charts for over a year, and it, therefore, makes no sense to just now be selling tech.
See my post here for why I believe this is the bottom for tech:
With this said, if SQQQ does indeed close the week above the Ichimoku Cloud resistance and EMA exp ribbon then we're looking at a market crash. Statistically, this is highly unlikely to be the case though. The NDTH is far too low for QQQ to break down and crash just now. We are in peak fear/peak inflation/peak capitulation this week. In fact, this is a super good risk-to-reward entry. One can enter TQQQ/QQQ/tech this week and stop out on Friday if support breaks at the weekly close. If support holds, you would have bought in at the absolute bottom.
If the Fed hikes rates by 75 bps on Wednesday, it's quite likely that the markets will quickly rally from this low.
Not financial advice. Anything can happen. Trends can break.
NQLikely has another correction to finish before the 4th wave bottom is confirmed, a rejection has happened off the LT channel bottom TL and now the Vix has some momo on the daily chart. I expect a double bottom type move b4 grinding higher to capitulate the last of the bear market is here now and sell everything gang that has been running the markets since Feb 2022.
GL guys big mike loves u.
Bearish breakdown for MSFT on the Fibonacci Bollinger BandThe monthly chart for Microsoft (MSFT) shows a breakdown below the upper band (red line) of the Fibonacci Bollinger Bands (FBB) indicator. While it is likely that MSFT will bounce for the time being, as inflation worries cool and tech stocks attempt a rally, the upper band will likely act as resistance. If the price rebounds it might be hard to sustain a breakout above $300. While I like MSFT as much as anyone else, the charts do not lie. The chart is showing that there is a long-term mean reversion occurring in the price of MSFT. The white line is the standard deviation basis for the monthly chart which reflects the downside potential. It's quite steep and the yearly oscillators are saying MSFT is primed to correct down to this level. All of this will unfold slowly (months to years) and fakeouts might trap some bulls. Is your MSFT position prepared for a worst-case scenario reversion to the mean? Trade wisely.
Not financial advice.
IXIC US Composite Nasdaq Corrects 50% from swing of 2020! Over? IXIC US Composite Nasdaq Corrects 50% from swing of 2020! Over?
#IXIC #NASDAQ #US30 #RUT #SPX500
NASDAQ:IXIC corrects 50% from the swing of 2020 bottoms.
Is it over? Economic fundamentals claim it has not bottomed out yet.
Most of the IT stocks gave the way for this correction. #TSLA #AMZN #FB #NFLX and so on to name.
Is it time for investment? Yes, for a long term holder who is not bothered with a small dips of 5-7% further fall, should start investing.
Are you salaried class person with a constant earning coming every month end? Or u have a business with a strong mindset of risk management and risk handling?
Be prepared with your investment plans! Personal Finances and Taxation. Earnings and Expenses. Savings and Return on Investment All are to be aligned in this latest world of increased necessities and demands with scarcity of resources.
As we have always read, this is actually happening in front of us.
Are we prepared?
Inflation and Unemployment will tame our greed and carelessness towards resources.
Investment opportunities? Ample of opportunities, waiting for appropriate investment entry.
Start investing start trading. Tradingview !
#tradingview.
IXIC - Rebound or falling further Comment :
1) Nasdaq Index has came to (e) Lv-2 target. Will it be rebound on Lv-2 or breakdown further more?
2) FundFlow+ indicator - Fund flow trend going downward
3) Tricol+ indicator - no banker-/weak- sentiment
Support & Resistance :
S : 12070
Remark :
- Length of ab = cd = de = ef
DISCLAIMER :
Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
The Effect of Regional Conflict on the MarketIn this post, I'll demonstrate the impact of regional conflicts on the market; whether what we're seeing is the beginning of a recession, or a reversal.
I'll be going over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, referring to historical examples of regional conflicts and the impact they had on the market.
War is tragic. I would like to clarify upfront that this post is apolitical. It simply assesses current events and market movements from the perspective of an investor.
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Analysis
- With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we have seen this bull market’s first correction.
- Many fear that this may simply be a deadcat bounce before further downside, but this once again proves that this event was a case of ’sell on fear, buy on the bullets’.
- Pressure is applied to the financial markets as fear of war starts, and is relieved when the actual conflict starts.
- So contrary to common belief, the beginning of war, as tragic as it is, is a bullish sign for the markets.
- Markets move on surprises, and what’s happening in Ukraine is nothing new or surprising.
- Not only has there been tension building up for the past few weeks, we were aware of such a scenario for the past few years, with Russia’s takeover of Crimea.
- The point is that the more discussions there are about the plethora of probable scenarios and possibilities, the less likely it is for the market to crash when something worse occurs.
- Unless this war spreads to a global scale, which I doubt it will, I think the damage will be regional, and thus unlikely to cause a bear market.
- We’ve seen this through multiple cases in history: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, Gulf War, Afghanistan War, Iraq War, and the Crimean Crisis.
- This isn’t because armed conflict is good for the market.
- The conflict ending uncertainty is what drives the market upwards.
Conclusion
Headlines, responses from communities online, and fake news can drive short term reactions via sentiment, but it’s important to take a deep breath, and listen to what the market is trying to tell you.
Taking all of this into account, I believe that it’s more likely for us to see a recovery or return to the uptrend sometime later this year, with some turbulence early on. However, remember that the name of the game is to buy when it’s cheap, and sell when it’s expensive. By the time you realize that we’ve returned to a steady, sturdy bull trend without any factors of fear and bearishness to hinder the momentum, it may already be too late to buy cheap. Hence, my preference to buy 1000 shares of $SPY at $430, rather than buying 10 shares at $350.
While my entire long term outlook on the market remains optimistic, it’s important to remember that volatility is unpredictable. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s everlasting either. I anticipate that there’s a high probability that the bull market continues, but volatility will play its role in shaking out the weak hands.
If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content!
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
IXIC (NASDAQ) - February 18Hello?
Traders, welcome.
If you "follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Like".
Have a nice day.
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(IXIC (NASDAQ) 1W chart)
(1D chart)
The 12998.50-13429.98 section is a strong support section, and a sharp rise is expected when this section is touched.
If there is a sharp rise, you should check for movement above the 13770.57 point.
With the volatility around February 18-23 (up to February 17-24), it is necessary to check if the movement is similar to the path drawn on the chart.
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We recommend that you trade with your average unit price.
This is because, if the price is below your average unit price, whether the price trend is in an upward trend or a downward trend, there is a high possibility that you will not be able to get a big profit due to the psychological burden.
The center of all trading starts with the average unit price at which you start trading.
If you ignore this, you may be trading in the wrong direction.
Therefore, it is important to find a way to lower the average unit price and adjust the proportion of the investment, ultimately allowing the funds corresponding to the profits to be able to regenerate themselves.
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** All indicators are lagging indicators.
Therefore, it is important to be aware that the indicator will move accordingly as price and volume move.
However, for convenience, we are talking in reverse for the interpretation of the indicator.
** The MRHAB-O and MRHAB-B indicators used in the chart are indicators of our channel that have not been released yet.
(Since it was not disclosed, you can use this chart without any restrictions by sharing this chart and copying and pasting the indicators.)
** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options to the existing Stochastic RSI indicator.
Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the traditional Stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line)
** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator disclosed by oh92. (Thanks for this.)
** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart.
** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee a profit or loss in investment.
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profit and loss can be preserved or additional entry can be made through split trading. It is a short-term investment perspective.)
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IXIC (NASDAQ) - January 28Hello?
Traders, welcome.
If you "follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Like".
Have a nice day.
-------------------------------------
(1M chart)
It followed the uptrend line that started in March 2009 and then surged in March 2020.
in 1M chart
Resistance section: around 14448.58
Support section: around the 11167.50 point
Roughly, if you do not find support in the 12700-13600 range, there is a possibility that it will fall near the 11167.50 point, so you need to trade cautiously.
(1W chart)
It turned into an uptrend in December 2018 and March 2020, touching the uptrend line.
At this time, if you look at the movement of the CCI-RC index in the wRSI_SR index, you can roughly predict the current index movement.
In the CCI-RC indicator, it can be seen that there is a high probability that the trend will change when the CCI line touches the 0 point.
On the 1W chart
Resistance section: around 14448.58
Support section: near the 12998.50 point
(1D chart)
(All: )
in 1D chart
Resistance section: around 14448.58
Support section: 12998.50-13429.98
If you check the entire chart, you can see that the CC line is located in an important section of the current CCI-RC indicator.
Therefore, it is important to be able to receive support in the support zone.
If it declines from the support zone, it is expected to find primary support at the 12339.0 point.
------------------------------------------------------------ -----------------------------------------------------
** All indicators are lagging indicators.
Therefore, it is important to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume.
However, for convenience, we are talking in reverse for the interpretation of the indicator.
** The MRHAB-O and MRHAB-B indicators used in the chart are indicators of our channel that have not been released yet.
(Since it was not disclosed, you can use this chart without any restrictions by sharing this chart and copying and pasting the indicators.)
** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options to the existing Stochastic RSI indicator.
Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the traditional Stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line)
** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator disclosed by oh92. (Thanks for this.)
** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart.
** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee a profit or loss in investment.
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profit and loss can be preserved or additional entry can be made through split trading. It is a short-term investment perspective.)
---------------------------------
Nasdaq Tumble?Today, we had the much anticipated Fed hearing and it did little to encourage markets in either way. This chart is based on what most experts, even the naive ones on CNBC are now expecting a modest correction of 15%. Checking on a few indicators here, we can see the MACD has crossed into bearish territory and couple that with the Fed raising rates, tapering, and inflation we can see something building up.
I do not believe it will be a market crash. Employment is up. The consumer is doing good. Debt is being paid off and there is $3 trillion dollars in saving/checking accounts. I do believe we will see a much needed correction.
IXIC (Nasdaq ETF) - Resistance, Support, Trend - 09/05/21IXIC (Nasdaq ETF) has been uptrending since June 2021, on a daily chart.
Price has recently broken up above Trendline Support #1.
Bullish scenario:
-IXIC price continues to push up to new all-time-highs.
-Resistance levels: $15514.67, $15846.78, $16000.
Bearish scenario:
-IXIC price pulls back down to re-test both Trendline Support #1 and #2 over time.
-Support levels: $15193.63, $14994.37, $14656.72, $14457.45.
Note: On a weekly chart, price needs to close and hold above $14701 to maintain the uptrend.
The bottom for SmallCaps might be inWe might be in the midst of a trend reversal for a rotation that has been going on since March: Megacaps and SuperLargeCaps have been going higher, while everything from SmallLargeCaps to NanoCaps has been on the decline.
We've had many days recently where indexes seemed to go higher when the majority of stocks seemed to decline. That was, because we've seen huge increases in MegaCaps and SuperLargeCap companies recently, which have used so much money on the market that many, if not most SmallCaps have litterally have "their blood drained".
Analyzing the 2,5Y Forward P/E and P/S rates of MSFT & AAPL and adding a little bit bonus for small debt/equity(MSFT) and a little malus for high debt/equity(AAPL) I have come to the conclusion that they're trading roughly 100% over market average valuation for this kind of analysis.
Now, considering the fact, that both these FAANG giants are quite expensive at current valuations and seeing most SmallCaps trading significantly below market averages one starts to wonder when a trend change might be in.
The answer is: probably now. Or soon.
Subtracting Nasdaq100 Index( OANDA:NAS100USD ) (that tracks only the top100 companies of the NASDAQ exchange) from the Nasdaq Composite Index(that includes all Nasdaq listed companies) You're left with a quite unique picture: How Non-Index-Nasdaq-Companies are trading vs Nasdaq100 companies. This, in theory, can be mostly translated into how SmallCaps are faring vs MegaCaps and SuperLargeCaps.
As you can see, we have been on a decline for months, with quite a consistent trend resistance (the yellow line).
We're also trading near 03/2020 (Corona crash) & 09/2020 (Major Tech correction) lows.
We seem to have broken the Trend resistance (but better wait for real confirmation on Monday/Tuesday)
All of these facts lead me to believe the bottom for SmallCaps is in and MegaCaps and SuperLargeCaps are ahead of a major correction.
Let me know your thoughts! :)
IXIC: Giving us another TA class! Many patterns around!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the Nasdaq is doing today!
It didn’t trigger any pullback sign since our last analysis, and as we thought, it is just trending. I see nothing around telling me it’ll drop again, but we have some possible patterns that could cause a pullback here.
First, notice the purple trendline . We talked about this line last week, when the price was still under it, and once defeated, the market did a pullback and found a support at it. This is another classic example of the Principle of Polarity in Technical Analysis: Previous resistances/supports will work as supports/resistances in the future. This happens because the market has a memory, therefore, we have key points we can use.
What’s more, we have a possible H&S chart pattern , and if we trigger the neckline, by losing the 14,660, then we might see a correction ahead.
The daily chart suggests we could drop to the 21 ema, and that would be fine, the trend would still be bullish in the mid-term. If we fail again in closing above the 14,755 then I believe it’ll be an exhaustion sign for real.
The chart looks quite stretched and this makes traders and investors nervous about buying at a possible top level. What’s the solution? Pick amazing stocks that are already near their support levels. I can’t even count how many incredible opportunities are out there, we just need to know where to look.
Meanwhile, watch the points mentioned in this analysis carefully! If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my free daily studies, and support this idea if it helped you!
Thank you very much!