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Ixic-nasdaq

Nasdaq Composite sideways correction, rising to 13500 by Feb2021 Nasdaq Composite has just finished or about to finish the Wave 2 correction of the larger Wave (3) of the larger Wave 5. Some may identify the 2 Sep to 9 Nov 2020 correction as a triangle, but triangles usually appear in the later part of a larger wave, like the second half of wave 3 or wave 4 or in the case of diagonal triangle, wave 5. This is obviously the Wave 2 of the larger Wave (3), the bullish run from March 2020 is fairly young, still has huge space and time to grow, because Wave (3) are quite often extended and could never be the shortest wave. Therefore the 2 Sep to 9 Nov 2020 correction should be correctly typed as a WXY double three or WXYXZ triple three. Double three and triple threes are the less well known types of Elliott Wave correction, but they appear more frequently in the 21st century than 40 or 100 years ago. Perhaps because people today are less patient and trade much faster than 1920s traders, there's often not enough time for the classical 5-wave Wave A and Wave C to develop, instead we get the sideways 3-3-3 WXY correction. There might be another retest of 10800 support within the next 2 weeks, forming the WXYXZ triple three correction. The long term trend of Nasdaq Composite is extremely bullish, in Oct 2020 IXIC bounced up nicely from the 20-week simple moving average, confirming the uptrend is unharmed. I expect more positive news about Corona virus vaccine in November and December 2020, the Christmas season has a statistically 73% probability of being bullish starting from 1950. If we start counting from 1990, December has a staggering 77% probability of bull. The top of the small scale Fibonacci channel converges with the 1.618 extension of the older large Fibonacci channel in Jan and Feb 2021, so the converging point of 13500 is a very valid target. As the Fed has promised to keep the interest rate close to zero for the foreseeable future in Aug 2020, the huge bull of American stocks especially tech stocks will continue. 16000 in latter 2021 seems reasonable, we will probably get 20000 in 2022 and 30000 in 2023 or 2024.
TVC:IXICLong
by MarcusAu
2
Nasdaq Weekly Review - 10/12/2020 - 10/16/2020This is a first attempt at writing up my weekend homework. I look back over the week and review what happened in the market. What were my expectations each day and then what actually happened? What can I learn from expectation breakers? And then I look at what is coming in the week ahead. Monday, October 12, 2020 I'm a keep on chillin', refillin' and flyin' high Facts: 2.56% gain, Higher volume, Closing range: 66%, Green Body: 55% Good: Follow-through day for the Nasdaq. An FTD is a indicator from the CANSLIM system and Investors Business Daily. Bad: Not much, except som selling late in the afternoon Candle: 55% green body with 66% closing range. The almost constant upward movement created a fat green body, but the day finished off with some selling the created a short upper wick. Advance/Decline: 1.17, a few more advancers then declines but not the same breadth as previous week Sectors: Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) led the day. Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) lagged behind. Energy (XLE) had an afternoon surge. Expectation: Sideways It was a magnificent start to the week for the Nasdaq with a gap up and +2.56 gain on higher volume . A confirmed FTD for those who follow CANSLIM and IBD. The candle has a fat green body with a 66% closing range and tiny wicks at the top and bottom. It was upward most of the day with some profit taking in the late afternoon. All of the trend lines are on an upward slope. Continuing today's momentum would result in a +2.30% gain and a new all time high. There is likely to be some resistance as we approach that level. So expect a more modest gain from the 5d trend line which is at +0.65%. A small pullback would not be unwelcome to cool things off just a bit. Meeting back up with the trend from the September bottom would mean a -0.92% loss. The trend line from 9/3 is still -4.52% below the current index price. That big of a drop seems unlikely and would require some significant news. But always have a game plan, anything can happen. Tuesday, October 13, 2020 Let There Be Rock Facts: 0.1% Lower, Lower volume, Closing range: 34%, Red Body: 30% Good: Held at the upper range of the previous days price range. Bad: Indecisive inside day with a thinner body, lows and highs were traded two times each Candle: 30% green body, 35% closing range, Inside day Advance/Decline: 0.53, almost twice as many decliners as advancers Sectors: Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLC) led the day while Energy (XLE) had a huge advance near close. Financial (XLF) and Real Estate (XLRE) moved lower on earnings expectations. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The Nasdaq took a breather from the previous days big gains. The index dropped back -0.1% with an inside day. The 30% red body shows some indecision throughout the day with a lean toward bearish in the 34% closing range. It would be better to have that closing range be at least 40% to show more bullish support. Lower volume on the index is good given the bearishness, but SPX had higher volume with a significantly bearish movement. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks at a ratio of 3:2. Continuing today's sideways move would land the index in nearly the same spot tomorrow and also join up with the longer trend from the the 9/23 bottom. Picking back up the 5 day trend would result in a +2.20% gain and a new all time high. There is likely to be more resistance as we approach that level. So I'd expect any gains to be contained within 1.5%, just under the previous all time high. Given the indecisive Tuesday, a more severe pullback is also a possibility. Meeting back up with the trend from early September would result in a -3.67% loss where the index would find support from October trading ranges. Wednesday, October 14, 2020 We're running wild and we're restless Facts: 0.8% Lower, Volume Lower, Closing Range: 24%, Red Body: 53% Good: Held above Monday's lows, so the FTD is still good Bad: Tried but could not find higher ground late in day Candle: 53% red body with 24% closing range, the long red body showed little support for any gains throughout the day. Advance/Decline: 0.38, much more decliners than advancers Sectors: Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI) and Utilities (XLU) all shared the limelight as investors rushed for safer bets. Expectation: Sideways or lower The Nasdaq continued to rest from it's recent aggressive gains, dropping -0.8%. It's still trading within the highs and lows of the bullish day on Monday. The candle has a 53% Red body with a bearish 24% closing range on lower volume than the previous two days. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks at a 2:1 ratio. Materials, Industrial and Utilities were the top three sectors of the day. Energy started the day strong but faded significantly as trading progressed. Communications was the worst sector for the day, after having a strong showing earlier in the week. Tomorrow will bring updates on Jobless claims, Manufacturing, and Crude Oil inventories. Several 2020 favorites are down significantly after hours including Datadog ( DDOG ), Cloudflare (NET) and Fastly ( FSLY ). Fastly is down almost 30% in postmarket trading after cutting Q3 guidance. Start with the positive trends. The five day trend points to a +2.79% gain for tomorrow, which would take the index to near all time highs. That will probably meet up with resistance and so expect closer to +2.5% as the upper limit. If the index moves back towards the trend from the bottom, then expect a +1.41% gain. Further pullback is certainly possible. Meeting back up with the trend from early September would result in a -2.03% loss where the index would find support from October support lines. Based on today's trading range, it's plausible the index will go sideways more and stay above Monday's low. That would be a great sign of strength at the current level. Thursday, October 15, 2020 Baby come back, you can blame it all on me Facts: 0.47% Lower, Lower volume, Closing Range: 85%, Green Body: 85% Good: Gains through out the day, looks like investors are back in the game after the gap down and previous two day sell off Bad: Undercut the low of Monday Follow-thru day, making that a failed FTD Candle: 85% green body with 85% closing range. Gapped down on open but gains throughout the day. Advance/Decline: 0.99, about as many advancers as decliners Sectors: Energy (XLE) was far out in front for the day, likely on oil supply being lower than expected (leading to higher oil prices) Expectation: Higher The Nasdaq took another small step back having dropped -0.47% but recovering from a much lower morning. It did undermine the low from Monday's follow-thru day. The bullish candle has a 85% green body with a strong 85% closing range after falling off a bit late in the day. Volume was lower than the previous three days (my indicator shows higher volume from QQQ , IXIC volume was lower). There were about the same amount of Advancing stocks as there were Declining stocks. Energy was the leading sector of the day with XLE gaining 1.21% from yesterdays close and gained 3.6% from today's open. Compare that to the SPX which dropped -0.15%. Other sectors that did well included Financials, Industrials and the Consumer Discretionary/Staples sectors. Although the day started with a gap down, it trended upward the entire day. A continuation of that 1d trend would result in a 0.77% gain tomorrow, meeting up with the 5d trend line . The trend from the 9/23 bottom points to a 2.06% gain which would be right under expected resistance near the all time highs. Further pullback is certainly possible. The trend from Monday's pivot (including morning gains) would result in a -1.70% loss where the index would meet up with the September correction trend line and find support from October trading. Friday, October 16, 2020 You took my money, you took my time Made me think everything was fine Facts: 0.36% Lower, Lower volume, Closing Range: 13%, Red Body: 50% Good: The morning seemed to continue previous days strength Bad: Double expectation buster from previous day green, and morning gains, resulting in afternoon disappointment Candle: 50% red body with 13% closing range. Upper wick and lower body represent the disappointing end to the week. Advance/Decline: 0.70, more decliners than advancers Sectors: Investors escaped other sectors to the warm safe comfort of Utilities . Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Technology (XLK) and Energy (XLE) lead the afternoon sell-off. Expectation: Lower The Nasdaq index action today gave us a great summary of the entire week. An amazing start, and a very disappointing end. Just as Monday was an amazing start to the week, today's morning saw gains of over 1% only to disappoint with -0.36% loss by the end of the day. The candle shows it all with an long upper wick, 50% red body, and a dismal 13% closing range. The only positive is that volume continues to be lower indicating shakeout, but not huge institutional selling. Advancing and Declining stocks remained about equal. Utilities ( XLU ) sector was the leading sector of the day. Utilities is the best safe haven for risk-adverse investors who want to stay in equities vs moving to other currency and bond markets for protection. The alternatives just aren't good. Health ( XLV ) also performed well, supported by the increase in COVID19 cases worldwide. The only positive trend line right now is the one drawn from the 9/24 bottom. If the index were to regain that momentum, it would mean a +2.56% gain on Monday. That would also be approaching all time highs and be over the highs from the prior Monday. Let's hope this Monday will be a typical Monday in this environment. The Big Picture The week brought some mixed signals. There were positives. Although it was disappointing to pull back from Monday's highs, the market needed to settle back down from the accelerated gains of the last few weeks. There are some positive signs. The week was still up with a 0.79 gain for the index. The 11671.56 close is still above the 21d EMA and the 21d EMA is still above the 50d MA, but signs of an upward trend. The highest volume day was Monday and the remainder of the week saw continuously lower volume. That indicates there isn't a mass exit of large institutional investors. Low yields on long term bonds and the performance of other typical safe havens is keeping investors in the stock market. The alternative is that there is a lot of money moving to Utilities, Materials and other safer bets vs what drove the big increases over the several months before September. On the other hand, the way Thursday set expectations for Friday and then broke them heading into the afternoon was a red flag. It could be investors just wanted to put money into safe bets like utilities over the weekend, driving down the price of the market leaders. Or it could be a sign of a faltered rally attempt and more downside to come. It will be important to watch for key support levels in both the index as well as the leading stocks. The big four AAPL, MSFT, AMZN and GOOG all ended the week with gains and above 50d moving averages. GOOG was below this key indicator last week and so was a great showing to see it rise above. AMZN had a bit of a tough week, including Friday where it dove below the 50d MA, but the bulls came in and got it above the key line. Several growth favorites (DDOG, VEEV, ZM to name just a few) had dips, but ended the week with solid gains. On the other hand, the revenue forecast from FSLY, which was forced to be disclosed by acquisition activity, felt a bit like a canary in the coal mine. Is there more negative surprises to come? Looking at the sectors, the continued strength of Utilities (XLU) is showing that investors want a safe bet that keeps them in equities. But there is clearly rotations happening throughout each week as opportunities arise for growth in the Technology (XLK), Communications (XLC) and Consumer (XLY/XLP) sectors. Once those growth opportunities stall, everything goes back to Utilities. Energy (XLE) continues to be interesting to watch. Crude Oil prices have stabilized quite a bit from the downward pressures in 2020. As Crude Oil has had gains, the gains have not yet reflected in the Energy sector. So this is a good one to keep watching. Often Energy will lead the sectors as we head out of a bottom. Key Levels for next Week There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First two on the positive side: Going above Monday's high of 11965.54 would be a great way to start the week. Let's hope Monday will be the typical Monday we've seen recently. Give 10/19 a new name! Passing 12074.06 would be a new all time high and a clear sign that the bull market is intact and the short September correction is over. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise red flags: 11,400 is the October support/resistance area. We did no spend a lot of time in that area so it would not be a huge problem to break below it. This is where the 21d EMA is at now. This would get more serious if we went below the 11,300 September support area. A lot of time was spent at this level going back and forth before finally breaking back above. This is where the 50d MA is at now. The next area to watch would be the July support area at 10,600. If we were to see a significant pullback this week, then the hope is we'd at least stop at this level. If we break through here, there is danger of a much more damaging decline. Beyond the July area, there is not much to hold back the index from dropping to the June support area of 10,000. There were only 2-3 days in early July that we were trading between these two levels. At the 10,000 level, there would be a lot of support from the round number psychology as well as the 200d MA. Wrap-up It will be a week to watch closely which way the market decides to go. We can't fight the market. All we can do is build some expectations, watch for signs of where it will move and then size positions and limit risks as necessary to maximize profits or minimize losses. Good luck and I hope you all have a great week! Did you find this interesting or helpful? Would be great to hear your feedback in the comments. What would you like to be added/removed/changed? I do this primarily for my own education and preparation, but would happy to look at other perspectives and/or data.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Trend Lines, Support, Resistance for 9/28Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (17d), 9/22 (5d), recent bottom 9/24 (3d) and today 9/28 (1 day). The Nasdaq continued it's rally off of the recent bottom from last Thursday's open. Today it tested the 50d MA line 3 times, but rallied in the afternoon to close near the high. Daily volume is trending down and you could consider the daily candle a hanging man, both possible tops to the current rally. If the rally continues, expect some resistance around 11,250 which has been the upper side of a channel in September. That would still allow for another 1.75% gains. Following todays ascent, would be a more modest 0.83% gain. A small to large pullback is also certainly possible in this volatile month of moves. The five day trend points to a 0.98% decline. The longer term trend from market peak on 9/2, points to a return to the July Support area, a 3.65% decline. I'm keeping the June Support line and the possibility of a future decline to that point on the map. It's possible, but not likely to have that happen in one day. As a reminder, there are only two days (July 1 and 2) filling the gap between June support and July support. A fall below July support would be dangerous.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Trend Lines and Support for Nasdaq, 9/24Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (15 days), 9/18 (5 days), yesterdays peak 9/23 (2 days) and today 9/24 (1 day). After a whipsaw up and down, the Nasdaq ended up slightly on Thursday on higher volume. The closing range is right around 50% for the day but the second half of the day was on the downward trend. Possibilities for Friday could be positive if the July support line holds for another day, showing less selling pressure. That would be an increase from 0.6% to 1.79%. If that support line doesn't hold then the regressions points to a 0.85% to 2.79% drop. The challenge is that the gap between the two support lines is only represented by two days (July 1 and 2) of trading. That is not very much trading volume to hold the value above June Support. So I added a fifth possibility to drop -6.19% as a worst case.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Market Rotation Into Energy (XLE) The past week there was rotation into Energy (XLE). There is precedent for rotations into energy marking tops and continuing as safe havens during corrections. In the bottom chart, you see the rotation happening in September 2018, just before three months of market declines (21% on S%P 500 and 24% for Nasdaq). Looking back further to the 2000 tech bubble, look at stocks like CVX, XOM and SLB. These stocks are going up or sideways while the market is crashing around them. On the other hand, 2018 these stocks fell along with the market. So the question is are we in a correction? If so, is it more like 2000 or 2018? Have energy stocks been held down while the tech bubble grew? Will we see energy stocks climb over the next few months?
AMEX:XLC
by drewby4321
1
NASDAQ, UN INDICE BLINDADO.Su Nuevo máximo sobre los 10500 Puntos, solo deja claro que la tecnología pesa como factor para mantener en marcha al mundo, ya no es especulación de primera como en el año 2000 que tuvo una caida del 75 por ciento aproximadamente debido a la Burbuja.com. Debemos asimilar que toda empresa debe tener una profunda transformación hacia lo intangiblemente automatizado y versatil que ofrecen las herramientas tecnologicas. Dos Puntos Claves en Nasdaq: Año 2000-2001 Corrección de un 75% debido a que muchas compañías que cotizaban sobre soluciones tecnologicas, no tenían en realidad ganancias y solo fueron promesas. (Google por ejemplo, cumplió satisfactoriamente su proyecto). Año 2008 Corrección de un 50% aproximadamente como efecto colateral de la caida de otros mercados (sector inmobiliario por ejemplo). Estos dos son sus aspectos historicos con más peso, desde 1974.
TVC:IXIC
by danchallout
Nasdaq - ATH (significant event happened). What's next? NASDAQ Composite Index ( IXIC ) is one of the world's leading indexes, an index of high-tech and rapidly growing companies. My thoughts: I decided to share them with you! In my opinion, a remarkable event has occurred today in the world economy! Today, there has been a significant breakthrough in the ATH (All-Time High) in the history of the NASDAQ Composite Index’s existence. Why is this so important in my opinion? Taking into consideration all the fundamental factors that should have contradicted this event such as the general financial situation in the world, turbulent political situations, COVID-19, poor economic situations in the leading economies of the world, unemployment and above everything else it still happened! Thoughts: New reality! First of all, the paradigm of world development is changing! Today, right on the chart we see that the index of technological companies NASDAQ Composite is emerging as the growth leader. Being, in fact, a precursor for future growth, a new reality, possibly a new leading indicator for the rest of the global market and most likely for other leading world top indexes such as DJI, S&P500 and others. And it is also possible for other risky assets including Bitcoin and the whole cryptocurrency market. Secondly, all of this is happening against the backdrop of a huge number of problems in all areas of the economy and life! And finally, what this all points to in my opinion: It says that in spite of all the problems in all areas, the capital is not invested in reserve assets such as gold (although some part probably goes there) but invested in technological companies, which will, in fact, be the ones changing our reality and our future. P.S The chart shows the goals of possible corrections. In my opinion, if the situation in the world worsens, then a correction of a complex protracted form is possible from these levels. (At the moment it is not possible to calculate them) However, in the current state of affairs, the general movement seems to be still heading up! Important! Once again for understanding, the wave structure, patterns, graphic models tend to change or change the structure, therefore confirmation is important. Remember! Forecasts of financial markets are the private opinion of the author. The current analysis is not a guide to trade. The author is not responsible for the results of work that may arise when using trading recommendations from the submitted reviews.
TVC:IXICLong
by bavarrr
2
Nasdaq Quarterly Chart Is Still Bullish Nasdaq full blown recovery in April and May has cancelled out the losses from March. By end of March, things can go anywhere, especially that it marks the end of Q1 2020. However, as it turns out, the coronavirus pandemic is not as bad as it seems (it is bad for people who don't take care of their health and immune systems/ and bad for people who fears death so much/but it is okay or normal for people who believes in hereafter and wants to leave good legacy on Earth, which is not the cases for most people especially in the finance industry). So, we had the recovery we needed. Nasdaq HAS NOT recorded CONSEQUTIVES RED/BLACK candles since 2008 and also since 2000. That's the only time where it had these two massive red candles and then we are heading south. Based on probabilities alone, we are UNLIKELY to see Nasdaq goes down below March low. So, it seems like the party will keep running and continuing. The federal reserves is the biggest whales/sharks in the entire world. It is foolish to bet against them. Don't bet, just stay aside or do something else. Regards.
TVC:IXICEducation
by UnknownUnicorn735418
The BEARS are LURKING in the MARKET.The NASDAQ Composite it’s showing sign of weakness now, but despite of the two last red candles, it’s still a bullish trend . The price is trading inside an ascending channel, and it found support at the purple trendline again. The price is trading above the 21 ema and above the previous top zone, which is evidenced by the pink line. It lost today the 8950 (thin blue line), and now the bears will have to struggle to break out of this channel. We need to look at the hourly chart for more information: The price found support at the green line (previous bottom), and in the end of the day it did a bullish pattern . We must wait for some confirmation tomorrow, but it’s easy to imagine NASDAQ going up to that blue line again, or testing the 21 ema, then we will see if the bears are serious here. On the other hand, there’s a possibility the bears will break free from this ascending channel without testing any of these resistances, and if that’s the case, it will seek lower supports , like the red line in the daily chart. Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped. Thank you very much. * LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because: - Here, you will see clean charts; - Trades with clear risk management; - The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology; - Chart patterns with statistics. * * My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
TVC:IXIC
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2