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Daily Market Update for 12/9Summary: Now that Omicron fears seem behind us, investors' focus turned to inflation and how the Fed might react if Consumer Price Index data is higher than expected. That caused investors to move into defensive positions on Thursday ahead of the CPI report due on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 9, 2021 Facts: -1.71%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 71% Red Good: Lower volume on decline Bad: Low closing range, close below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body with no lower wick, long upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.35, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.00%), RUT (-2.27%), VIX (+8.44%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.27%) and Health (XLV +0.23%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.73%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Now that Omicron fears seem behind us, investors' focus turned to inflation and how the Fed might react if Consumer Price Index data is higher than expected. That caused investors to move into defensive positions on Thursday ahead of the CPI report due on Friday. The Nasdaq declined -1.71% on lower volume than the previous day. The closing range was 2% underneath a 71% red body formed from sellers controlling the entire day. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock, a reversal from several days of a high advance/decline ratio. The Russell 2000 (RUT) took the most significant loss, declining -2.27%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -0.72%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat for the day, avoiding losses thanks to large health, consumer staples, and recovery stocks. The VIX Volatility Index rose +8.44%. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.27%) and Health (XLV +0.23%) were the only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors to gain for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -1.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.73%) had the biggest losses. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims data came in better than expected. There were only 184,000 new claims compared to a forecast of 215,000 and last week's 227,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.26%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields receded slightly while the 2y yield moved higher. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and Gold prices both fell as the US Dollar strengthened. The put/call ratio declined to 0.689. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains at the Fear level. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index dove to 69.46 after being above 100 for five weeks. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) was the only one to dip back below its 21d EMA, losing -1.13% today. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.56% but got support at its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -0.37%. Apple (AAPL) set another all-time high before ending the day with a -0.30% decline. Abbvie (ABBV) and Pfizer (PFE) were the top mega-caps for the day, gaining +1.87% and +1.32%, respectively. Tesla (TSLA) declined -6.10%, falling to the bottom of the mega-cap list but getting support at its 50d moving average. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day. RH (RH) led the way with a +5.47% gain after surprising investors with its earnings beat yesterday and providing upgraded guidance. For most of the growth list, the losses were steep. Sumo Digital (SUMO) dropped the most with a -12.47% decline, followed by Peloton (PTON), which lost -11.35%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The big news for tomorrow morning will be the November Core Price Index data that measures inflation. The data will drive the outlook for analysts as they anticipate how quickly the Fed will taper bond purchases and when they would start interest rate hikes to control inflation. We will also get the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations data for December after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq failed to get support at the 15,600 area and closed below its 21d EMA. If the index can return to its 5-day trend line, that would mean a +3.30% gain for Friday. That will take some very good but unlikely news on inflation. If the trend line from the 11/22 high continues, expect another -0.95% decline tomorrow. If the index continues the one-day trend line, that would mean a -1.24% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's always something for investors to fear in 2021. Omicron was a nice distraction, and we got a short rally once positive news arrived about the variant's potency against vaccination. However, the conversation about the Fed's changing monetary policy in the face of inflation never ended, and now its front-and-center again. Expect Sideways or Lower tomorrow unless the CPI data comes in better than anticipated. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/8Summary: Major indexes marched higher today as confidence grows among investors that Omicron is not as dangerous as initially thought. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, December 8, 2021 Facts: +0.64%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 55% Green Good: Higher high, higher low and high closing range, good advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Green body at top of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.92, almost two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.31%), DJI (+0.10%), RUT (+0.79%), VIX (-9.09%) Sector List: Health (XLV +0.75%) and Communications (XLC +0.73%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.32%) and Financials (XLF -0.53%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Major indexes marched higher today as confidence grows among investors that Omicron is not as dangerous as initially thought. The Nasdaq climbed +0.64% and closed near the intraday high. Volume was lower than the previous day, but almost two stocks advanced for every declining stock. The green body covers 55% of the candle, which has a 97% closing range. A longer lower wick formed at market open, but bulls bought the dip and sent the index higher. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other indexes with a +0.79% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +0.31%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) only gained +0.10%. The VIX Volatility Index fell another -9.18%. Health (XLV +0.75%) and Communications (XLC +0.73%) let the sector list. Communications led for most of the day, but Health caught up and topped the sector list just before close. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.32%) and Financials (XLF -0.53%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The JOLTs Job Openings report showed 11.033 million openings for October, more than the expected 10.369 million. The report signals a continued labor shortage as people quit jobs at a record rate while companies are trying to hire for the holiday season. The US Dollar weakened with the index (DXY) dropping -0.35% today. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields continue to climb while the 2y yield fell slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell by only -0.02%. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell -0.67%. Crude Oil Futures gained another +5.21% as Omicron fears eased worries about travel demand. The put/call ratio rose to 0.706. The CNN Fear & Greed indicator moved closer to Neutral but remained at the Fear level. All four largest mega-caps stayed positive for the day, although Amazon (AMZN) closed flat. Apple (AAPL) set another record close, gaining +2.28% today. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.62%. Microsoft (MSFT) held onto a +0.01% gain. PayPal (PYPL) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.31%. At the bottom of the list was Toyota Motor (TM ), which declined -2.65%. Roku (ROKU) topped the daily update growth list with a +18.23% gain. The company announced a multi-year deal with Google to keep YouTube and YouTube TV on its streaming platform. DocuSign (DOCU) was the second-best performer on the list. The stock climbed +10.92% after the CEO bought $4.8 million in stock. Only four stocks in the growth list declined. Lululemon (LULU) dropped -2.06% ahead of earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be available in the morning. Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST), Lululemon (LULU), and Chewy (CHWY) report earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq did a steady climb toward the 16,000 resistance area but still has a ways to go. If the one-day and five-day trend lines continue, it will result in a +0.63% advance for Thursday. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a -3.05% decline. We are still watching for 15,833.11, which is the high of last week. A new weekly high will build confidence that the Omicron correction is behind us. It will also help if volume increases as the index moves higher. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Overall it was a productive day with broad gains across many stocks, but volume is decreasing as the markets move higher. We can have more confidence in the rally if the volume increases, showing more strength in the move. The expectation for Thursday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/7Summary: Investors rushed back into risk assets as more assurances came from experts that Omicron might spread faster but have less severe symptoms. The drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline also reported that their antibody-based COVID-19 therapy is effective against the new variant. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, December 7, 2021 Facts: +3.03%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 92% (w/gap), Body: 83% Green Good: Mostly green body, close above 50d MA, 21d EMA and 15,600 support area. Bad: Gap up on lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up and mostly green body, upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 2.41, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+2.07%), DJI (+1.40%), RUT (+2.28%), VIX (-19.46%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +3.49%) and Energy (XLE +2.34%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.75%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.22%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors rushed back into risk assets as more assurances came from experts that Omicron might spread faster but have less severe symptoms. The drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline also reported that their antibody-based COVID-19 therapy is effective against the new variant. The Nasdaq gapped up at open, starting the day with a 2% gain and ending with a +3.03% gain. The candle is 83% green body with an upper wick and no lower wick. The closing of 92% includes the gap from yesterday's high. Volume was lower than the previous day, but gains were shared broadly with more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +2.07%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.40%. Small-caps did well with the Russell 2000 (RUT), climbing +2.28%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -19.46%. The volatility index is still at an elevated level. All S&P 500 sectors advanced for a second day. Technology (XLK +3.49%) and Energy (XLE +2.34%) were the top performers. The defensive sectors Utilities (XLU +0.75%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.22%) were at the bottom. Nonfarm Productivity for Q3 dropped more than expected, but it didn't seem to bother investors. Unit Labor Costs rose 9.6% compared to the expectation of 8.3%. The US Dollar index (DXY) remained flat, climbing only +0.01%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y yields rose, continuing their recovery after dropping among Omicron fears last week. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose sharply. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices ticked higher also. Crude Oil Futures are rising again. Timber (WOOD) had another steep advance, adding to yesterday's gains. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.621. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward neutral but is still at the Fear level. All four largest mega-caps had significant gains today, closing above their 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) had a record close after a +3.54% gain. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +2.87%. Amazon (AMZN) climbed by +2.80%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +2.68%. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list with a +7.96% gain. The list is primarily gainers today. Comcast (CMCSA) lost -5.29%, ending the day at the bottom of the mega-cap list after providing slower broadband growth guidance. The stocks in the Daily Update Growth List had a very good day. At the top of the list was MongoDB (MDB), gaining +16.42% after smashing earnings expectations. Sumo Digital (SUMO), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Fiverr (FVRR) all gained more than 10%. Only three stocks in the growth list declined. The biggest loser was DocuSign (DOCU) which continues to struggle after last week's disappointing guidance. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead After the market opens on Wednesday, the JOLTs Job Openings report will be available. The report made headlines last week as investors focused on the mass exodus of US workers. There was some evidence in last week's labor data that participation may be on the rise again. Crude Oil Inventories will be available later in the morning. There is a 10-Year Treasury Note Auction scheduled in the afternoon. GameStop (GME), RH (RH), and Lovesac (LOVE) are a few of the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Today, the Nasdaq closed above its 50d moving average and 21d exponential moving average. It also moved above the 15,400 and 15,600 support areas. If the one-day trend line continues, we can expect a +0.44% gain for Wednesday. If the index pulls back to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -2.16% decline. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a -3.27% decline. 15,833.11 is the high of last week. Creating a higher high for this week will be a key indicator of a recovery from the Omicron sell-off. Reaching that milestone higher volume will make it an even more decisive move. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Optimism over the lower impact of Omicron sent markets on a rally today. Will the rally continue? Analysts still need to measure the response to positive pandemic news against the reactions from the Fed on monetary policy. There is also the question of which sectors should benefit from the news. Technology soared today, but many believe that value stocks and recovery stocks should lead the way for a rebound. This week will continue to be interesting. The expectation for Wednesday is Higher. A move up with more volume would be a confidence booster. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
8
Daily Market Update for 12/6Summary: Whiplash moves in the market driven by Omicron fears continued today. Optimism gained over the weekend as doctors reported mild symptoms for Omicron cases, and it seems vaccines are still effective against the new variant. The positive outlook helped drive markets higher today. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, December 6, 2021 Facts: +0.93%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 84%, Body: 31% Green Good: High closing range, rally off 15,000 support Bad: Lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, small green body in upper half of the candle Advance/Decline: 1.36, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.17%), DJI (+1.87%), RUT (+2.05%), VIX (-11.38%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +1.76%) and Industrials (XLI +1.69%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.95%) and Health (XLV +0.57%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Whiplash moves in the market driven by Omicron fears continued today. Optimism gained over the weekend as doctors reported mild symptoms for Omicron cases, and it seems vaccines are still effective against the new variant. The positive outlook helped drive markets higher today. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.93% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The closing range of 84% comes above a 31% green body in the upper half of the candle. The long lower wick formed in the first minutes after the market opened. However, investors bought the dip and brought the index back to the 50d moving average line, where it met resistance. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other major indexes, gaining +2.05% today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also performed well, advancing +1.87% as investors looked for value in industrials and recovery stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +1.17%. The VIX Volatility Index remains high even though it declined -11.38% today. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.76%) and Industrials (XLI +1.69%) were at the top of the sector list. Technology (XLK +0.95%) and Health (XLV +0.57%) were at the bottom. The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.15%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields gained for the day. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Crude Oil Futures moved higher after falling sharply for the past week. Timber (WOOD) prices rose as the index moved to its highest point since September. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.729 after nearly hitting 1.0 on Friday. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Fear from Extreme Fear at the end of last week. All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.15%, although it faded back from an intraday gain of +3.73%. Microsoft (MSFT) has a long lower wick that tested the 50d moving average line before ending the day with a +0.98% gain. Amazon (AMAZN) gained +1.11%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.81%. Both closed above their 50d moving average lines. Most mega-caps gained for the day. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +10.40% today as China tech seems to be on the rebound. The worst-performing mega-cap of the day was Pfizer (PFE) -5.14% as investors exited vaccine trades after more experts reduced fears in their Omicron outlook. Joining Alibaba (BABA) at the top of the Daily Update Growth List was FUTU Holdings (FUTU), a Chinese fintech stock that gained +10.01% for the day. Most of the stocks in the growth list gained, but some familiar names lost. Cloudflare (NET) declined -7.51%, beat in decline only by Zscaler (ZS), which lost -12.44%. Investors are moving away from richly priced tech stocks and looking at value stocks for the next cycle. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Trade Balance data for October will be available in the morning. We will also get a look at Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for Q3. In the afternoon, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be released. AutoZone (AZO), Pagerduty (PD), and Dave & Busters (PLAY) are a few of the earnings releases for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq got support around the 15,000 area before moving higher in the morning. It then reached resistance at the 50d moving average line before closing slightly below it. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, that would mean a +1.72% gain. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a -1.33% decline, while the five-day trend line ends with a -2.26% decline. We need to see a close above the 50d moving average at 15,279.93 as a first test of the rebound. Next, look for the index to move above 15,545.99, where the 21d exponential moving average line is now. Finally, 15,833.11 is the high of last week. Creating a higher high for this week will be a key indicator of a recovery from the Omicron sell-off. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We are not out of the woods with Omicron. News headlines are still flashing positive and negative sentiment as the global story unfolds. It seems for now that fears are subsiding, and investors are optimistic again about value and reopening stocks. Given the inside day candle today, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq (IXIC) | The best scenario for the fallHello traders, Nasdaq (IXIC) in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe. It seems that this wave that we examined is the last wave of wave 3 in higher times. Based on the counting of waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, we have completed and entered a new phase of correction. This correction will be more in terms of time than price. Because by examining the previous waves, we can see that a wave was formed very deeply and at the same time in a very short time. Because we are early in the correction, it is not possible to find a suitable fibroid target, but it is possible that the first movements near the end of wave 3 will occur at the end of wave 4 or 5. This move is confirmed if the trend line is completely broken. 🙏If you have an idea that helps me provide a better analysis, I will be happy to write in the comments🙏 ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
TVC:IXICShort
by mahdisoltaninjad
2
Daily Market Update for 12/3Summary: Omicron fears continued to drive a volatile week while investors tried to understand the impact of mixed employment data on Fed bond purchase tapering. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, December 3, 2021 Facts: -1.92%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 29%, Body: 64% Red Good: Support at 15,000 Bad: Close below 50d moving average, closing range, decline on higher volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, mostly red body with a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.3, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.84%), DJI (-0.17%), RUT (-2.13%), VIX (+9.73%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +1.24%) and Utilities (XLU +1.00%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.67%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.94%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Omicron fears continued to drive a volatile week while investors tried to understand the impact of mixed employment data on Fed bond purchase tapering. The Nasdaq lost another -1.92% today. That brought the weekly decline to -2.92%, and the index is -6.95% below the all-time high set last week. The candle is 64% red body with a longer lower wick. The closing range of 29% signals that the bears were in control. The higher high and lower low create a bearish outside day. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) performed the best for the day, declining only -0.17%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -0.84%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -2.13%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +9.74%. Only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. They were defensive sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.24%) and Utilities (XLU +1.00%) were the top two sectors. Technology (XLK -1.67%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.94%), both growth sectors, were at the bottom. Only 210,000 Nonfarm Payrolls were added in November. Analysts expected 550,000. However, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.2%, beating the expectation of 4.5%. The two together sent mixed signals to investors trying to figure out the impact on Fed monetary actions. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index showed higher than expected economic activity, registering 69.1 against the expectation of 65.0. Markit Composite PMI and Services PMI were also higher than expected. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.02%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields dropped sharply again. The 2y Treasury yield also declined. There was no change to High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices, but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. All four largest mega-caps declined today. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant decline, ending the day with a -1.97% loss after testing support at its 50d moving average line. Amazon (AMZN) dipped below its 200d moving average before recovering to end the day with a -1.38% decline. Alphabet (GOOGL) continues to trade around its 50d moving average, dipping -0.67% today. Apple (AAPL) is the only of the four to trade above its 21d exponential moving average and 50d moving average. Pepsico (PEP) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +2.55%, benefiting from defensive investments in the consumer staple sector. The worst-performing mega-cap was Adobe, declining -8.24% today. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth List advanced today. Zynga (ZNGA) and UP Fintech (TIGR) gained +5.89% and +5.49%, while Workday (WDAY) held onto a small gain of +0.12%. At the bottom of the list, DocuSign (DOCU) plunged -42.22% after providing a very disappointing revenue outlook to investors during its earnings call. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no major US economic data scheduled for Monday. MongoDB (MDB), Coupa Software (COUP), GitLab (GTLB), H&R Block (HRB), and Sumo Logic (SUMO) will report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed below its 50d moving average line, continuing to decline until getting support at the 15,000 area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/22 high, that will mean a +0.10% gain for Monday. The five-day trend line points to a -1.24% decline. If the one-day trend line continues, that would mean a -2.52% decline on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There are two forces this week causing declines in the indexes. The one all over the news in fears of the Omicron variant. However, there is plenty of emerging commentary that Omicron may not be as bad as initially thought. The second force has been the talk of accelerated tapering from the Fed's Jerome Powell. Early in the week, he showed a change in attitude toward inflation, removing the word transitory from describing it. He indicated that more aggressive action might be required to control an overheated economy. Given the low employment rate, investors seem sure that bond purchase tapering will happen faster than previously expected, and more interest rate hikes can be expected from a hawkish Fed. The expectation for Monday is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/2Summary: Markets bounced back from the Omicron fear-driven declines this week. The gains were broad across the market, sending all S&P 500 sectors higher. Yet, there is still progress to be made before investors can feel comfortable. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 2, 2021 Facts: +0.83%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 79%, Body: 68% Green Good: Gain on good volume, good closing range, advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Longer upper wick over green body, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.44, more advancing stocks than decline stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.42%), DJI (+1.82%), RUT (+2.74%), VIX (-10.19%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +2.98%) and Industrials (XLI +2.97%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.92%) and Health (XLV +0.49%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets bounced back from the Omicron fear-driven declines this week. The gains were broad across the market, sending all S&P 500 sectors higher. Yet, there is still progress to be made before investors can feel comfortable. The Nasdaq closed +0.83% higher, performing not as well as the other indexes as investors focused on value stocks and the small-cap segment. Volume was lower than the previous day but higher than the 50-day average volume. A 68% green body covers the candle, with a long upper wick and no lower wick. The closing range of 79% is excellent, and there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Small-caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the larger stocks, and the index gained +2.74%. Broad gains across all sectors helped the S&P 500 (SPX) to a +1.42% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also had an outstanding performance, climbing +1.82%. The VIX Volatility Index is still high, despite receding -10.19% today. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Financials (XLF +2.98%) and Industrials (XLI +2.97%) were at the top of the sector list. Technology (XLK +0.92%) and Health (XLV +0.49%) were at the bottom of the list. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 222,000, better than the expected 240,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.10% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields gained. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices are higher today as they continue to bounce up and down over the past week. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were also higher for the day. Gold prices are back to where they were at the beginning of November, and silver is back to where it was in October. They rose during the first part of last month but sold off sharply in the past few weeks. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) gained today, rising +1.36% and closing above its 50d moving average line. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.61% to close just above its 21d EMA. The company signaled lower demand for the holiday season. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.18%. Microsoft closed just below its 21d exponential moving average while Amazon tested support at its 50d moving average. Comcast (CMCSA) was the top mega-cap for the day, rising +4.93%. Most mega-caps gained for the day. Pfizer gave back some recent gains, declining -3% today and ending at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Snowflake (SNOW) soared to the top of the Daily Update Growth List with a +15.85% gain after smashing earnings and revenue estimates. Okta (OKTA) gained +11.66% after beating earnings guidance. Ehang (EH) holdings dropped to the bottom of the list with a -13.53% decline. The company's quarterly loss was wider than expected. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We will get additional labor data on Friday morning. Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, the Participation rate, and the Unemployment Rate are among the data points available before the market opens. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be available after the market opens. Big Lots (BIG) will report earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved above the 50d moving average line and met resistance in the 15,400 area. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, expect another +1.05% gain. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 11/22 high point to a -0.40% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Omicron fears subsided today, allowing markets to recover from the recent sell-off. However, we are not out of the woods. The Nasdaq has a lower high and lower low today, which continues a downtrend. Look for a new daily high and a push upward on higher volume to build confidence. Next week, we'll need to see a new weekly high. As it is, the expectation for Friday is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/1Summary: Fears over omicron continued to put pressure on markets, despite optimism that drove a morning rally. Not only did the US find its first case of the new variant, but the Fed's Jerome Powell signaled that inflation might not recede next year as previously thought. The two caused markets to give up early gains and decline further. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, December 01, 2021 Facts: -1.83%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 87% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Failed morning rally turned into a huge sell-off Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Longer upper wick above a long red body, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.22, more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.18%), DJI (-1.34%), RUT (-2.34%), VIX (+14.45%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.18%) and Health (XLV -0.18%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) and Communications (XLC -2.31%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Fears over omicron continued to put pressure on markets, despite optimism that drove a morning rally. Not only did the US find its first case of the new variant, but the Fed's Jerome Powell signaled that inflation might not recede next year as previously thought. The two caused markets to give up early gains and decline further. The Nasdaq ended the day with a -1.82% decline. The morning started with a +1.8% gain, but then worries crept back in, causing the index to lose more than -3.6% from the intraday high. The candle has a longer upper wick above an 87% red body. The 2% closing range shows bears were in control all the way into close. Volume was slightly lower than the previous day but still elevated over the 50d average volume. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small caps had the worst performance, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining -2.34%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.18%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -1.34%. The VIX Volatility index closed the day at its highest level since January, climbing +14.45% today. Utilities (XLU +0.18%) was the only S&P 500 sector that gained for the day. Energy (XLE -1.06%) was the leading sector before the morning reversal. Health (XLV -0.18%) was the second-best sector for the day. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) and Communications (XLC -2.31%) were at the bottom of the sector list. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for November was higher than expected. ISM Manufacturing Employment also increased with the Purchasing Managers Index rising to 61.1, compared to the expectation of 61.0. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.15%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields started the morning higher but ended the day lower. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined to their lowest point in 2021. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also fell today, but not as sharply. The put/call ratio rose to 0.770. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into the Extreme Fear area. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) set a new all-time high before falling, ending the day with a -0.32% loss. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.15%, closing below its 21d EMA for the second day. Alphabet (GOOGL) moved further below its 50d MA with a -0.60% decline. Amazon (AMZN) dropped the most, losing -1.81%. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) soared +5.42% in the morning before giving back some of the gains. TSM still topped the mega-cap list with a +2.97% gain for the day. Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Procter & Gamble (PG) all gained more than 1% for the day, closing among the few gainers in the mega-cap list. Salesforce.com (CRM) disappointed investors on their revenue outlook, dropping the stock to the bottom of the list with a -11.74% decline. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day. JD.com was the top gainer with a +1.27% advance. The biggest loser was CloudFlare (NET), declining -12.77% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will be available in the morning. Marvell (MRVL), Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR), Domo (DOM), and Ehang (EH) are a few of the earnings reports expected tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below another support level at 15,400 to close right at its 50d moving average line. All trend lines are downward moving. If the index can return to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +1.98% gain for tomorrow. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a +1.53% gain. If the one-day trend line continues into Thursday, expect a -2.22% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Markets were in free fall on Wednesday as the drama around the Omicron variant continued to grow. Governments are responding aggressively to the new variant as scientists scramble to answer questions on how fast it will spread and whether it will bypass vaccines and natural immunity. Still, a lot of today's decline could be from Jerome Powell's statements on continued high inflation in the second half of 2022. Those statements are signaling a much more hawkish Fed, which could accelerate bond tapering and interest rate hikes. The expectation for Thursday is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/30Summary: Lower consumer confidence and elevated Omicron fears sent stocks lower while Jerome Powell piled on with news of an accelerated bond tapering timeline. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 30, 2021 Facts: -1.55%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 23%, Body: 47% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Lower high, lower low, decline on much higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body in the middle of two long wicks. Advance/Decline: 0.33, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.90%), DJI (-1.86%), RUT (-1.92%), VIX (+18.42%) Sector List: Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.35%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -2.92%) and Communications (XLC -3.17%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Lower consumer confidence and elevated Omicron fears sent stocks lower while Jerome Powell piled on with news of an accelerated bond tapering timeline. The Nasdaq declined -1.55% for the day. Volume was higher than the previous day and much higher than the 50d average volume. The candle is long, nearly stretching to yesterday's high and last week's low, with a thick red body covering 47% of the middle. The closing range of 23% is not great, and three stocks declined for every stock that advanced. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.90%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -1.86%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped another -1.92% and is fast approaching the bottom of its trading range since February 2021. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) climbed by +18.42%. All S&P 500 sectors declined for the day. However, Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.35%) faired the best, possibly boosted by news of a new iPhone SE device in the first quarter of 2022. Utilities (XLU -2.92%) and Communications (XLC -3.17%) were the bottom two sectors. CB Consumer Confidence for November was at 109.5, lower than the expected 111.0. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was also lower than expected, registering 61.8 compared to the expectation of 67.0. Jerome Powell was surprisingly hawkish in his comments before congress today, accelerating a timeline for bond purchase tapering after citing a strong economic recovery and high inflation. Janet Yellen pleaded with congress again to raise the debt ceiling to avoid defaults that could begin by December 15. Congress delayed the decision by a temporary agreement as a deadline approached in October. The US Dollar weakened with the index (DXY) declining -0.31% today. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields fell while the 2y Treasury Yield rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond Prices dropped. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond Prices rose for another day. Silver and Gold Prices both declined for another day. Crude Oil Futures fell another -8.37%. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all declined. The put/call ratio rose to 0.723. The CNN Fear & Greed Index fell further into the Fear area, almost reaching Extreme Fear. Of the four largest mega-caps, Apple (AAPL) was the only one to advance, gaining +3.16% on rumors of a new iPhone SE release in Q1 of 2022. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) closed below their 21d EMA, declining -1.79% and -1.53%. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed below its 50d MA, losing -2.50% today. Apple was the top mega-cap for the day, followed by Pfizer (PFE), which gained +2.54%. Facebook (FB) was the biggest loser in the mega-cap list, falling -4.01% along with the rest of the Communications sector. Pfizer's gain came in contrast to its main competitor Moderna (MRNA). Pfizer's message has been more positive on the effectiveness of current vaccines against Omicron. Moderna's CEO told the press late on Monday that he was concerned current vaccines wouldn't be effective. That sent futures tumbling overnight and set the mood for the market at the open. Tesla (TSLA) was the only stock in the Daily Update Growth List to gain today, advancing +0.68%. At the bottom of the growth list were Fiverr (FVRR) and Snowflake (SNOW), both declining more than -6%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead ADP Nonfarm Employment Data will be available before the market opens tomorrow. After the market opens, ISM Manufacturing Data, including Employment and the Purchasing Managers Index, will be available. Crude Oil Inventories are to be available later in the morning. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen are scheduled for additional comments. The Beige Book will be released in the afternoon. Tomorrow's earning reports include Snowflake (SNOW), Synopsys (SNPS), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Okta (OKTA), Splunk (SPLK), and Five Below (FIVE). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq again dropped below the 21d EMA and the 15,600 support/resistance area. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a +0.04% lateral move for Wednesday. The five-day trend line results in a -0.25% decline. If the one-day trend line continues, it will mean a -1.63% drop for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's much fear in the market this week as investors digest news about Omicron, the Bond Tapering schedule, and the looming debt ceiling deadline. The fear shows up in stock price weakness, treasury bond price strength, and the rising put/call ratio. Expect continued volatility as each of these develops over the next few weeks. The expectation for Wednesday is Lower. Some good news could help turn the trend around. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/29 Summary: Investors reassessed the risks of the new Omicron variant and determined the impact may be less than initially thought on Friday. Equities rose while bond yields declined. All S&P 500 sectors gained for the day, despite gains not being broadly shared across individual stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 29, 2021 Facts: +1.88%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 73%, Body: 34% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, good closing range Bad: Faded from intraday high, advance/decline line low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Medium-sized green body in between equal length upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.47, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+1.32%), DJI (+0.68%), RUT (-0.18%), VIX (-19.78%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +2.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.55%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.25%) and Industrials (XLI +0.17%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors reassessed the risks of the new Omicron variant and determined the impact may be less than initially thought on Friday. Equities rose while bond yields declined. All S&P 500 sectors gained for the day, despite gains not being broadly shared across individual stocks. The Nasdaq rose +1.88%. Volume returned to pre-holiday levels. The candle has a medium-sized green body in between equal length upper and lower wicks. The chart shows a higher high and a higher low, and the closing range is good at 73%, but there were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.32%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +0.68%. Small-caps did not do well, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining -0.18% in a rollercoaster session. The VIX Volatility Index fell back -19.78% after soaring over 50% on Friday. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Technology (XLK +2.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.55%) were at the top of the list. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.25%) and Industrials (XLI +0.17%) were at the bottom. It's notable that some caution persisted with the Utilities (XLU +1.48%) sector in the third position in the list and outperforming the broader S&P 500 index. Pending Home Sales for October grew 7.5% month-over-month, much higher than the expected +0.9%. Jerome Powell testified before Congress this morning, stating that the new Omicron variant and rising cases of COVID in the world could further impact supply chain issues, put more upward pressure on prices, and hurt job growth. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.13% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields recovered some of Friday's sharp decline. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices increased. Silver and Gold prices declined. Crude Oil Futures rose after a massive decline on Friday. The put/call ratio declined to 0.591 as investors looked to buy the dip. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped into the Fear area. The four largest mega-caps all advanced for the day. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.19%. Microsoft (MSFT) closed above its 21d EMA after dipping below the line on Friday, gaining +2.11% today. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +1.63%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +2.35%, closing above its 50d MA but remaining below its 21d EMA. Chipmakers did well today as Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list with a +5.95% advance. Tesla (TSLA) and Qualcomm (QCOM) followed Nvidia in the list, with +5.09% and +4.55% gains. Most mega-caps gained. Pfizer (PFE) was the worst-performing mega-cap of the day, declining -2.96% after climbing more than 6% on Friday. The Daily Update Growth List was about half gainers and half losers. Nvidia also topped the growth list, followed by Zscaler (ZS), which gained +5.65% and reports earnings tomorrow. The biggest loser on the list was GrowGeneration (GRWG). The cannabis stock declined -6.73% -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead CB Consumer Confidence numbers will be available in the morning. Janet Yellen will join Jerome Powell in more testimony before congress. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be available in the afternoon. Salesforce.com (CRM), Zscaler (ZS), NetApp (NTAP), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Box Inc (BOX), and UP Fintech (TIGR) report earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq climbed back above its 21d EMA today. Despite fading from the intraday high, the index closed well above the key moving average line. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, we can expect a +1.18% gain. The trend line from the 11/10 low points to a +0.25% gain. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -1.54% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was a lot more confidence among investors on Monday than there was on Friday. Still, there are some signs of weakness. The low advance/decline line means investors were picky about where to place their bets. The Utilities sector is a defensive play for investors and was the third-best sector, outperforming the S&P 500 index. Finally, today's intraday high landed at the 50% retracement from last Monday's all-time high. At that point, the index started to fade in the afternoon. Pay attention to comments from Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen tomorrow morning. Also on the list of worries is funding for the government, which has a deadline looming this week. Based on the chart, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher, but there could be a lot of volatility this week. Hang on for a rough ride! Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/26Summary: Few stocks avoided the sell-off on Friday as investors fled the market on fears of a significant new variant of the Coronavirus. Treasury Yields dropped as money moved from equities to bonds. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 26, 2021 Facts: -2.23%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 13%, Body: 63% Red Good: Not much, lower volume avoids distribution day Bad: Drop below 21d EMA and below 15,600, very low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, low closing range, lower high/low Advance/Decline: 0.16, More than six declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.27%), DJI (-2.53%), RUT (-3.67%), VIX (+54.04%) Sector List: Health (XLV -0.37%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.26%) at the top. Financials (XLF -3.32%) and Energy (XLE -4.02%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Few stocks avoided the sell-off on Friday as investors fled the market on fears of a significant new variant of the Coronavirus. Treasury Yields dropped as money moved from equities to bonds. The Nasdaq fell -2.23%, dropping below the 21d EMA and the 15,600 support area. As the index tried to rally, that area became resistance. The candle is 63% red body with an upper wick longer than the lower wick. The closing range of 13% shows that sellers were in control into the close. There were more than six stocks that declined for every stock that advanced. Small-caps took the biggest hit, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropping -3.67%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -2.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -2.53%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) shot up +54.04%, closing at its highest point since February. All S&P 500 sectors declined for the day. Health (XLV -0.37%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.26%) had the smallest losses. Good performances from Pfizer and Moderna helped the Health sector. Financials (XLF -3.32%) and Energy (XLE -4.02%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Financials fell on the lower Treasury Yields. Energy fell along with all travel stocks as countries implemented new travel restrictions. The US Dollar index fell -0.74%. The US Dollar weakened while the Japanese Yen strengthened. The Euro also strengthened relative to the US dollar. US treasury yields dropped sharply. The US 30y and 10y yields fell -6.86% and -9.40%, while the 2y yield dropped -21.80%. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Crude Oil Futures fell -11.15% on new travel restrictions. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum Futures all dropped as well. Gold prices rose slightly while Silver prices declined. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.756. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped well into the Fear level. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index remained above 100 for a fifth week, climbing slightly to 103.14 this week. The index comes out on Wednesdays, so Friday's sell-off is not counted. It is unusual to stay above 100 for five weeks, so the new variant scare may be just what money managers needed to finally lower exposure. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) remained above its 21d EMA despite falling -3.17% today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) fell below their 21d EMA, with -2.44% and -2.12% declines. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed below both its 21d EMA and 50d MA, declining -2.69% today. Pfizer (PFE) was the best performer among a small number of mega-caps that gained today. Pfizer rose +6.11%. Stay-at-home stock Netflix (NFLX) was in the top three, gaining +1.12%. Mastercard (MA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -4.66% today. A lot of familiar names from 2020 popped to the top of the Daily Update Growth List. Zoom Video (ZM) and Peloton (PTON) topped the list with 5.72% and 5.67% gains. Chewy (CHWY) and DocuSign (DOCU) were third and fourth. Chinese stocks fell the most. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) were at the bottom of the growth list, declining -7.66% and -8.67%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead What we learn about the new Coronavirus variant over the weekend will be the top economic news. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen will speak on Monday morning at 10:00a, and the threat of a new wave of restrictions will be a topic. Other Fed officials speak throughout the day. Pending Home Sales data for October will be available on Monday morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq fell below the 15,600 area and closed below its 21d EMA. After attempting a rally in the afternoon, the index met resistance at the same 15,600 area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/10 low, it would mean a +2.31% gain on Monday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.03% decline. If the one-day trend line continues into Monday, it would mean another -2.73% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The news was grim. A new variant of the Coronavirus out of South Africa, now named Omnicron, threatens to shut down travel and begin new lockdowns in countries worldwide. Not much is known about the variant yet, but scientists see similarities to the changes in Delta, although they haven't proven anything about Omnicron's characteristics yet. So what happens on Monday depends on what headlines come out over the weekend. Will scientists and journalists declare we overreacted, or will they double-down with a message of caution among fear of a powerful variant? Based on today's performance, the expectation for Monday is lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 11/24Summary: Mixed economic data caused a dip in the morning before indexes reversed and mostly closed higher. Trading volume was significantly lower on the day before the Thanksgiving holiday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 24, 2021 Facts: +0.44%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 65% Green Good: High closing range, support at 15,600, A/D ratio Bad: Low volume, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick green body above a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.13, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.23%), DJI (-0.03%), RUT (+0.15%), VIX (-4.13%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Energy (XLE +0.98%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Materials (XLB -0.71%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Mixed economic data caused a dip in the morning before indexes reversed and mostly closed higher. Trading volume was significantly lower on the day before the Thanksgiving holiday. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.44% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The index dipped to the 15,600 area before reversing and moving higher the rest of the day. The dip created a long lower wick underneath a thick green body covering 65% of the candle. The closing range of 99% is excellent, but the lower high and higher low make an inside day for the index. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.23% for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +0.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.03%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -4.13%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Energy (XLE +0.98%) were the top sectors for the day. Real Estate likely got a boost from inflation fears. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Materials (XLB -0.71%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Core Durable Goods Orders for October were on par with expectations, but total Durable Goods Orders (including transportation items such as airplanes) were below the forecast. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 199,000, significantly better than the expectation of 260,000. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment for November were both better than expected. That aligns well with rising consumer spending, even among higher inflation. High inflation continues to be a concern as the PCE Price Index data for October grew at a higher rate than in September. The FOMC released the November Meeting Minutes in the afternoon. Analysts picking apart the minutes now expect a faster pace for bond purchase tapering and potentially a higher number of interest rate hikes in 2022. Markets responded positively to the meeting minutes, rallying after the release. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY), gaining +0.36% for the day. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y yield continued to climb. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.633. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in the Greed area but is moving toward neutral. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index remained above 100 for a fifth week, climbing slightly to 103.14 this week. The exposure to stocks remains high as other investment instruments cannot beat high inflation. All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) had the biggest gain among the four, advancing by +0.33%. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.23% but remained below its 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) had slight gains, inching up +0.07% and +0.01%, respectively. Shopify (SHOP) was the top gainer for the day, gaining +3.54% headed into the biggest shopping weekend of the year. Pepsico (PEP) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -0.91%. Most stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day. CloudFlare (NET) topped the list, climbing +6.90% on Wednesday after dropping more than 10% on Monday. SNAP (SNAP) declined -1.99% and ended up at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Holiday. They will open again on Friday but will close early at 13:00. There is no economic data or significant earnings reports scheduled for the next two days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below the 21d EMA in the morning before gaining support at 15,600 and rallying most of the day. The close above the 21d EMA and high closing range are positive signals. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, expect a +1.08% gain. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/10 low, that will result in a +0.54% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -1.17% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Mixed economic news caused some selling in the morning on Wednesday, but investors came back in to buy the dip. The higher inflation is not providing many options for investors outside of the stock market. That will mean more volatility and rotations over the remainder of 2021 as investors search for better stock returns. Based on the inside day and lower volume for Wednesday, I'm expecting a Sideways move for Friday's short trading session. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/23Summary: Big tech and growth stocks continued their slide on Tuesday as Treasury Yields rise in anticipation of action from the Fed on inflation. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 23, 2021 Facts: -0.50%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 59%, Body: 12% Red Good: Recovered to close above 21d EMA, rising advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower high, low and close and dip below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick, thin red body, good closing range Advance/Decline: 0.54, about two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.17%), DJI (+0.55%), RUT (-0.15%), VIX (+1.10%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.07%) and Financials (XLF +1.57%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.73%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech and growth stocks continued their slide on Tuesday as Treasury Yields rise in anticipation of action from the Fed on inflation. The Nasdaq dipped below its 21d Exponential Moving Average, then recovered before closing the day with a -0.50% decline. Volume was lower than the previous day. The dip created a long lower wick below the 12% red body. The closing range was 59%. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fared better with +0.17% and +0.55% advances. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.15%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +1.10%. Energy (XLE +3.07%) and Financials (XLF +1.57%) were the top sectors for another day. The three growth sectors were the only sectors to decline today. Communications (XLC -0.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.73%) fell the most. France, Germany, Great Britain, and the Euro Zone all reported surprisingly strong economic data today. All these countries reported higher than expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. They halted the climb of the US Dollar Index (which measures the US dollar against a basket of other foreign currencies). US Manufacturing PMI was 59.1, higher than the expected 59.0. US Services PMI was lower than expected, coming in at 57.0 against an expectation of 59.0. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -0.01%. The rose over the past few weeks to its highest point since July 2020. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields rose for the day. Mid-term yields are rising faster than long-term yields. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continue to fall. Silver and Gold prices fell another -2.16% and -0.86%. Crude Oil Futures moved higher despite the US coordinating a release of strategic oil reserves to combat higher gasoline prices. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.603. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is in the Greed zone but creeping toward neutral. Two of the four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) rose +0.24%. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.21%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.63%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.36% and was the only of the four to close below its 21d EMA. Abbvie (ABBV) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +2.79%. The remaining top 10 mega-caps were all in the Financial services and Energy sectors. Tesla (TSLA) was the worst-performing mega-cap for the day, declining -4.14%. Just seven stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day. SNAP (SNAP) was the top stock in the list, gaining +2.86% today. Zoom Video (ZM) landed at the bottom of the growth list, declining -14.71% today after their earnings call revealed slowing revenue growth. Analysts adjusted price targets down. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow brings a busy morning for economic data. The releases include GDP for Q3, Durable Goods Orders, and New Home Sales for October, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. After the market opens, all eyes will turn to the PCE Price Index data for October, a key inflation indicator. Crude Oil Inventories data will be available later in the morning. Earnings reports for Wednesday include Deere $ Company (DE), Trip.com (TCOM), and Futu (FUTU). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dipped below the 21d EMA but then rallied into close, finishing above the key moving average line. Support formed around 15,600, the same area the index dropped to on November 10. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, that would mean a +1.41% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.13% gain for tomorrow. If the one-day trend line continues, the index will decline -1.01% tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Treasury Yields rise, and the US Dollar remains strong compared to other world currencies. Both these factors put downward pressure on valuations for multinationals, big tech, and growth stocks. Inflation data tomorrow could ease fears or pour more fuel on the fire that’s burning. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/22Summary: After setting new record highs in two indexes, markets sold off quickly, ending the day with losses after President Biden decided to give Jerome Powell another term as the Fed Chairman. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 22, 2021 Facts: -1.26%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 74% Red Good: New all-time high Bad: Could not hold high from morning, dropped below 16,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Large red body with long upper wick, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.4, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.32%), DJI (+0.05%), RUT (-0.50%), VIX (+7.04%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.77%) and Financials (XLF +1.41%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.11%) and Communications (XLC -1.22%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After setting new record highs in two indexes, markets sold off quickly, ending the day with losses after President Biden decided to give Jerome Powell another term as the Fed Chairman. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.26% decline. The index gained nearly 1% in the morning before fading from intraday highs. That created a long upper wick. The index continued to dip below the 16,000 support area, forming a thick 74% red body below the long upper wick. The closing range is 1%, as the index continued to sell off into the close. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Volume was higher, creating a distribution day for the index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was the only index to gain for the day, although it only advanced +0.05%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.32%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.50% for the day, even though it led major indexes in the morning rally. In a reversal from Friday, Energy (XLE +1.77%) and Financials (XLF +1.41%) were the top sectors of the day. Technology (XLK -1.11%) and Communications (XLC -1.22%) were at the bottom. Big tech mega-caps brought down both sectors. Existing Home Sales for October came in higher than expected, counting 6.34 million vs. the expectation of 6.20 million. That helped indexes rally in the morning on positive sentiment for the economy. However, once Biden confirmed his selection of Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman, investors needed to price in the expectation that Powell would raise interest rates earlier than otherwise thought. The US Dollar index (DXY) advanced +0.45% for the day. US 30y and 10y yields rose, but not nearly as much as the 2y yield, which rose +15.46%. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and gold prices dropped sharply. The put/call ratio declined to 0.593. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is still in Greed but moving closer to neutral. Apple (AAPL) was the only of the four largest mega-caps to gain for the day, advancing +0.29% but ending the day far below the morning +3.21% rally. Microsoft (MSFT) set a new all-time high in the morning but couldn't hold on, declining -0.96% by the end of the day. Amazon (AMZN) dropped -2.83%, while Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.76%. Wells Fargo (WFC) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.11%. At the bottom of the list was Shopify (SHOP), declining -5.65% and just barely staying above 200b market cap to stay in the mega-cap list. Only five stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day, led by NIO (NIO), which gained +7.32%. At the bottom of the list was Niu Technologies (NIU), losing -16.83% after disappointing earnings. CloudFlare (NET) fell -11.65% today, after gaining more than 90% during October and November. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be available as the market opens on Tuesday. Autodesk (ADSK), VMWare (VMW), Dell Tech (DELL), Xpeng (XPEV), HP Inc (HPQ), Best By (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), GameStop (GME), Burlington (BUTL), Gap (GPS), and Nordstrom (JWN) are some of the earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new all-time this morning before dipping back below the 16,000 area. The index then climbed back above the 16,000 level before diving below it in the last 90 minutes of trading. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/10 low, expect a +1.83% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a +1.48% gain. If the one-day trend continues, that will result in a -1.07% decline for Tuesday and a test of the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up On one side, investors are relieved that they know what to expect with Jerome Powell. On the other hand, the alternative of Lael Brainard would have come with some unpredictability, but most thought she would extend out easy monetary policy for longer than Powell. The decision was made, and markets sold-off today in the initial reaction. It will likely take a few days to shake out the bets that need to be reversed. Given the thick red candle for the Nasdaq today, the expectation is for Lower for Tuesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/19Summary: Nasdaq topped 16,000 for the first time, helped higher by big tech this week. There was caution in the market as investors looked for safe havens and exiting industrials such as travel and energy stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 19, 2021 Facts: +0.40%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 42% (w/gap), Body: 15% Green Good: New all-time high, higher low Bad: Lower volume, fade from intraday high, low advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up, long upper wick above a thin green body, Advance/Decline: Indexes: SPX (-0.14%), DJI (-0.75%), RUT (-0.86%), VIX (+1.82%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +0.73%) and Utilities (XLU +0.57%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.09%) and Energy (XLE -3.90%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Nasdaq topped 16,000 for the first time, helped higher by big tech this week. There was caution in the market as investors looked for safe havens and exiting industrials such as travel and energy stocks. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.4% gain on lower volume than the previous day. The index opened with a gap up in the morning, followed by a rally that took it to a +0.80% intraday gain. The intraday high did not hold, creating a long upper wick and bringing the index back down to close nearly where it opened. The 42% closing range, including the gap, is above the level we want to see, but the candle shows indecision among investors. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The other major indexes closed lower for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.14%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.75%. Small-caps performed the worst, bringing the Russell 2000 (RUT) down -0.86%. The VIX Volatility index rose +1.82%. Only three sectors gained for the day. The top three included growth sectors Technology (XLK +0.73%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.43%), thanks primarily to big tech rising on positive earnings reports and lowering Treasury yields. However, Utilities (XLU +0.57%) took the second spot in the sector list, showing investors were looking for a defensive play, potentially against rising COVID cases in Europe. Financials (XLF -1.09%) and Energy (XLE -3.90%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Financials was brought down by lower Treasury Yields, while Energy closed lower on impact to travel from new pandemic lockdowns in Europe. The US Dollar climbed sharply after Fed's Christopher Walter commented that the government should taper earlier to tighten monetary policy. The index (DXY) gained +0.57% for the day, causing the drawdown in big tech stocks in the afternoon. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields dropped for the day, while 2y yields rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Gold and Silver prices pulled back on the strengthening dollar. Crude Oil Futures moved sharply lower, while Copper and Aluminum Futures are on the rise again. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.606. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Greed level from Extreme Greed the past week. The NAAIM money manager exposure index fell to 102.54 but is in its fourth week above 100. Apple (AAPL) rose another +1.70%, outperforming the other three largest mega-caps. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.54%. Both Apple and Microsoft had record-high closes. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.53%, while Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.61%. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list for a second day, gaining +4.14%. Tesla (TSLA) was the second-best mega-cap for the day, advancing +3.71%. Exxon Mobil was at the bottom of the list, with a -4.62% decline today. Enphase (ENPH) gained +5.21%, topping the Daily Update Growth List. The list has more losers than winners today, and Okta (OKTA) was at the bottom of the list, declining -8.97% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The short holiday week will start with Existing Home Sales data on Monday morning. Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and markets will close at 13:00 on Friday. Zoom Video (XM), Agilent Technologies (A), Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR), and Niu Tech (NIU) will report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq broke through resistance at 16,000 and set a new all-time high before closing in the lower half of its intraday range. If the trend line from the 11/10 low continues, that ends about the same point as the five-day trend line, a +0.44% gain for Monday. The one-day trend line points to a -0.05% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq gained +1.24% this week, the sixth weekly gain in the last seven weeks. The Nasdaq looks strong as it sets new all-time highs and record closes. However, there is some underlying weakness as the advance/decline ratio remains low. The number of Nasdaq stocks above their 50d moving average and 200d moving average is moving lower as the index moves higher, a bearish divergence. Looking at the long upper wick in an indecisive candle, the expectation for Monday is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/18Summary: Big tech mega-caps led the Nasdaq and growth sectors higher while seemingly leaving the rest of the market behind. The Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000 declined. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 18, 2021 Facts: +0.45%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 89%, Body: 13% Green Good: High closing range, high volume gain Bad: Lower low, advance/decline line low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, long lower wick under a thin green body Advance/Decline: 0.3, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.34%), DJI (-0.17%), RUT (-0.56%), VIX (+2.81%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.13%) and Technology (XLK +1.00%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.59%) and Communications (XLC -0.72%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech mega-caps led the Nasdaq and growth sectors higher while seemingly leaving the rest of the market behind. The Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000 declined. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.45%. The index dipped in the morning but recovered to close higher, leaving a long lower wick underneath a thin green body. The body covers only 13% of the candle. The closing range of 89% is excellent, and the gain comes with higher volume. However, most of that volume seems to be from sellers who sent three stocks lower for every stock that gained. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the only other major index to climb higher, rising +0.34%, also carried by the large mega-caps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.17%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.56%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +2.81%. Only three sectors gained for the day, with the third just barely hanging on to positive territory. The top two sectors were Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.13%) and Technology (XLK +1.00%). Energy (XLE -0.59%) and Communications (XLC -0.72%) were at the bottom. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 268,000 compared to an expected 260,000. That is still better than the previous week of 269,000 but is still a head-scratcher given recent employment data and reports of labor shortages. The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index gave a similar surprise to the NY Empire State index, coming in at 39 compared to the expectation of 24. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped -0.30% for the day. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields fell while the 2y yield rose slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined, but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold remain near recent high levels. Timber is in a steady climb over the past week, but Copper and Aluminum Futures remain well below recent high levels. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is at 0.529. The CNN Fear & Greed index is right at the line between Greed and Extreme Greed. The NAAIM money manager exposure index fell to 102.54 but is in its fourth week above 100. All four of the largest mega-caps gained for the day. Amazon (AMZN) climbed +4.14% as analysts predict it will be a top stock in 2021. Apple (AAPL) soared to a new record close with a +2.85% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) also had record closes with +0.63% and +1.21% gains. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed +8.25% after smashing earnings expectations. That also helped Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) gain +3.64% to end the day in the third position in the mega-cap list. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the list with a -11.13% decline. The company lowered guidance amid a drop in earnings due to China's crackdown on big tech. Following Nvidia, JD.com (JD) was the next best stock in the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +5.95% today. Only ten stocks in the list gained for the day, and the other ~30 declined. Robinhood (HOOD) joined Alibaba at the bottom of the list with a -11.13% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Friday. Two Fed officials (Waller and Clarida) speak in the afternoon. Investors await a decision from Joe Biden on whom he will nominate for the next Fed Chair. Analysts expect a swift reaction from the market depending on the choice. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance After dipping in the morning, the Nasdaq climbed back to the 16,000 resistance area, closing the day just below that level. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, expect a +1.51% advance for Friday. The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a +0.34% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Nvidia's huge earnings beat helped drive big tech higher as the outlook for cloud computing looks bright. The largest mega-caps moved higher, but the sentiment wasn't shared across the entire market. Most stocks moved lower for the day as we await a decision from Joe Biden on his Fed Chair pick. Analysts expect a reaction in the Market if Fed picks Brainard. They expect that Brainard will extend easy money policies beyond what Powell has signaled in recent months. The expectation for Friday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/16Summary: Retail sales data helped send growth stocks higher on Tuesday. Earnings reports by big retailers came together with the data, creating an overall surprise on how much consumers are spending despite inflation concerns. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 16, 2021 Facts: +0.76%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 90%, Body: 81% Green Good: Thick green body, consistent climb throughout day, higher volume Bad: Resistance at 16,000, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Most green body, equal small upper and lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.59, more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.39%), DJI (+0.15%), RUT (+0.17%), VIX (-0.73%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.58%) and Technology (XLK +1.05%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.63%) and Communications (XLC -0.75%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Retail sales data helped send growth stocks higher on Tuesday. Earnings reports by big retailers came together with the data, creating an overall surprise on how much consumers are spending despite inflation concerns. The Nasdaq rose +0.76% for the day. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has an 81% green body and a 90% closing range. The equal length upper and lower wicks are short. The gains were concentrated to big tech and specific sectors, leaving three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.39%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +0.15%. Small-caps didn't benefit as much from the positive economic data, rising only +0.17% today. The VIX Volatility index declined -0.73%. Only five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors rose for the day. Growth sectors Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.58%) and Technology (XLK +1.05%) were at the top of the sector list. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.63%) and Communications (XLC -0.75%) were at the bottom. Core Retail Sales, which excludes automobiles, grew 1.7% in October compared to an expectation of 1% growth. Retail Sales, including automobiles, rose 1.7% compared to an expectation of 1.2%. Industrial Production also climbed more than expected in October, with a 1.6% gain in production compared to the expectation of 0.7%. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in after the market closed and showed higher demand than anticipated. The US Dollar continues to strengthen, with the index (DXY) climbing +0.41% today. The index is at its highest level since July 2020. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose for another day while the 2y yield remained flat. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose while Investment Grade (LQD) Bond prices fell. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.531. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Extreme Greed area. Two of the four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.67% and 1.02%. Microsoft had its highest close on record. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.14% and -0.39%. Qualcomm (QCOM) soared to the top of the mega-cap list with a +7.89% gain after telling investors that it could grow without Apple. Home Depot (HD) was the second-best mega-cap with a +5.73% after beating earnings expectations. Walmart (WMT) also exceeded earnings expectations but lost -2.55% for the day, ending at the bottom of the list. Investors were concerned about tightening profit margins and comparative store sales growth. Peloton (PTON) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +15.50% gain after announcing a stock sale to raise capital. GrowGeneration (GRWG) was at the bottom of the growth list with a -8.05% decline today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data for October comes in the morning before the market opens. After the market opens, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be available. Three Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the day. Nvidia (NVDA), Cisco (CSCO), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Baidu (BIDU), Li Auto (LI), and Bath Body Works (BBWI) report earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose steadily throughout the day on Tuesday but met resistance at 16,000. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 bottom, it would be a +1.29% gain tomorrow. The one-day trend line would result in a +0.92% gain. The five-day trend line points to a +0.10% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Retail sales data was just the positive surprise investors needed to boost favorite big tech stocks today. However, it also boosted the strength of the US Dollar and long-term Treasury yields that drive interest rates. These both typically cause downward pressure on valuations for big tech and multinationals. So what to expect for the rest of the week? The exuberance over the Retail Sales data will be hard to beat, and it opposes the concern investors had over inflation and consumer sentiment data last week. Given the strengthening US Dollar and higher Treasury yields, we may see some rotation into small-caps to absorb any additional bullish sentiment from investors. Based on the chart, the expectation is for sideways or higher tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/15Summary: The strengthening US Dollar and rising treasury yields put a damper on Friday's rally in big tech. Investors moved into defensive and cyclical sectors as Biden put his signature to the Infrastructure Bill on Monday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 15, 2021 Facts: -0.04%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 54%, Body: 29% Red Good: Higher high, higher low, longer lower wick Bad: Low advance/decline, could hold morning rally Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Longer lower wick, small body in top of candle Advance/Decline: 0.65, three declining stocks for every two advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.00%), DJI (-0.04%), RUT (-0.45%), VIX (+1.23%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.32%) and Energy (XLE +0.83%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.46%) and Health (XLV -0.62%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The strengthening US Dollar and rising treasury yields put a damper on Friday's rally in big tech. Investors moved into defensive and cyclical sectors as Biden put his signature to the Infrastructure Bill on Monday. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.04% decline, a nearly flat move for the day. The index rallied in the morning but then dipped to an intraday low before regaining ground in the late afternoon. The candle has a 29% red body in the upper half with a long lower wick underneath a 54% closing range. We did get a higher high and higher low for the day. Volume was less than on Friday, and three stocks declined for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed flat with no gain or loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.04%. Small-caps underperformed for the day, sending the Russell 2000 (RUT) down by -0.45%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +1.23%. Only four of the eleven S&P 500 sectors declined for the day. Utilities (XLU +1.32%) and Energy (XLE +0.83%) were at the top of the list. Materials (XLB -0.46%) and Health (XLV -0.62%) were the worst-performing sectors. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index showed a surprising pick-up in activity. The index came in at 30.9 compared to an expectation of 21.6. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY) rising +0.42% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose for the day, with the gap widening between long-term and short-term yields. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Silver and Gold paused after climbing substantially from the beginning of November. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.514. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained at the Extreme Greed level. The four largest mega-caps had mixed results for the day. Amazon (AMZN) was up nearly 2% in the morning but faded to end the day with a +0.58% gain. Apple (AAPL) opened the day with a gain but couldn't hold on and ended with only a +0.01% advance. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.19% and -0.15%. All four daily charts look good. Chevron (CVX) was the top mega-cap for the day, and PayPal (PYPL) was second. Both gained over 2%. Tesla (TSLA) was the worst-performing stock for today, with a -1.94% decline. There were many gainers in the Daily Update Growth List, but there were more losers. At the top of the list was FUTU Holdings (FUTU), as the Chinese Fintech stock gained +5.44%. CrowdStrike (NET) was at the bottom of the growth list after Morgan Stanley declared the stock too expensive, sending the price down -10.60%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data will be available at 8:30a tomorrow. Analysts have expected an increase in Retail Sales for October over the previous month. In addition to Retail Sales, we'll also get updates on Export/Import prices and Industrial Production for October. Two Fed chairs (Bostic and Daly) speak tomorrow. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock comes out after the market close. Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and Sea (SE) are three big retail stocks reporting earnings tomorrow alongside the Retail Sales data. Together, the earnings reports and economic data will provide a clear picture for investors as we head into the holiday season. In addition to those big three, StoneCo (STNE), Lithium Americas (LAC), La-Z-Boy (LZB) are some other interesting earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq didn't move much today, even considering the mid-day dip. The index didn't test any major support or resistance areas. If the index returns to the trend-line from the 10/4 low, it would mean a +1.84% advance for tomorrow. The one-day and five-day trend lines both point to a -0.40% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There wasn't much to watch in the market today. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average were all flat for the day. Volatility (according to VIX) did not pick up much. Overall, investors made some minor rotations based on higher yields, but they did not disturb much ahead of the Retail Sales and Building Permits data that will come later this week. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Retail Sales data and earnings reports from large Retailers could be the catalyst for a move higher or lower in the indexes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq │ 15-11-2021Hello, Guys! Nasdaq Composite Index IXIC Is on Bearish Trend Date:- 15-11-2021 NASDAQ TARGET CLOSING :- 15860 Levels Quantum Physics Researcher :- Jeevan Singh Nasdaq Composite Index IXIC Closing Created Using With HPC ( High performance Computing ) STOP-LOSS :- Uses Your Own Stop-Loss Guys This is R&D ( Research And Development ) Purpose Only. I am Not Responsible If your Stop-Loss Hit And! I am Also Not Responsible If Regulator Call Me Manipulator. Thank You For Making Trust And Don't Forget To Support Me!
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by TRUECOSMOS
Daily Market Update for 11/12Summary: Investors brushed off fears of inflation and sent indexes higher, led by big tech and growth sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 12, 2021 Facts: +1.00%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 92%, Body: 64% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, higher high, higher low Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick green body, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.97, about equal advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.72%), DJI (+0.50%), RUT (+0.11%), VIX (-7.76%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +1.46%) and Technology (XLK +1.22%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.06%) and Energy (XLE -0.24%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors brushed off fears of inflation and sent indexes higher, led by big tech and growth sectors. The Nasdaq closed 1% higher on higher volume, signaling the investor hopes for a bounce after dipping this week. The candle has a 64% green body and a longer lower wick, formed right after the market open. There is a tiny upper wick above a 92% closing range. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX), boosted by the growth sectors, rose +0.72% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.50%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rose just +0.11% as small-caps trailed big tech in performance. The VIX Volatility Index declined -7.76%. Communications (XLC +1.46%) and Technology (XLK +1.22%) far outperformed the other S&P 500 sectors for the day. At the bottom of the list, utilities (XLU -0.06%) and Energy (XLE -0.24%) were the only sectors to decline. JOLTs Job Openings came in at 10.438 million against the expectation for 10.3 million. The higher number of openings shows the struggle companies have in hiring workers who are voluntarily leaving jobs in record numbers. Michigan Consumer Sentiment was at 66.8 compared to an expected 72.4. Consumer Expectations was 62.8 against the expectation of 70.0. The market didn't seem surprised by the lower numbers and may have been ready for the bad news given inflation data that came earlier in the week. The US Dollar weakened slightly, with the index (DXY) declining -0.03%. The US 30y Treasury Yield rose while the 10y and 2y yields fell. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices advanced while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and Gold prices continued to rise as an investor hedge against inflation. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.526. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Extreme Greed. The NAAIM money manager exposure index remained above 100, coming in at 103.69 this week. The index remained elevated in November 2020 as well. The four largest mega-caps all gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) rose above its 21d EMA, closing with a +1.43% gain. All four stocks are now above their key moving averages. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest gain, increasing +2.00%. Shopify (SHOP) entered the mega-cap list with a +12.02% gain today. The stock soared on seemingly no news. The company did report great earnings a few weeks ago, and there is commentary in the press that consumers are getting holiday shopping done early and seeking deals online to avoid inflation prices. Tesla was the worst-performing mega-cap of the day, declining -2.83%. The Daily Update Growth List was full of gainers today. DoorDash (DASH) topped the list with a +8.16%. The delivery company is up nearly 30% since its earnings release earlier in the week. Lemonade (LMND) was at the bottom of the growth list with a -2.87% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for November will be available on Monday. Lucid (LCID), Tyson Foods (TSN), Warner Music (WMG), and Porch Group (PRCH) are a few of the earnings reports to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq is working its way back toward last week's record high. If the index can return to the trend line from the 10/4 low, it will mean a +1.65% gain for Monday. If the one-day trend continues into Monday, it would mean a +0.90% advance. The five-day trend line points to a -1.33% gain for the first day of next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's not clear what changed investors' outlook toward inflation. It could be that there wasn't much worry about the data released earlier in the week and that the indexes just needed to pull back after a strong rally. However, today's gain takes the index to a 0.6 retracement level that could turn to resistance and send it lower. Looking at the weekly chart for the Nasdaq, we have an inside week signaling a fight between bulls and bears. The expectation for Monday is for Sideways or Higher. The current bull rally is intact, but I'll be more confident when we break back above the 16,000 level. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 11/11Summary: Trading was muted on Veteran's day as markets had lower than average volume. Nvidia led chipmakers higher while industrials weighed down the Dow Jones. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 11, 2021 Facts: +0.52%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 12%, Body: 66% Red Good: Higher low, higher close Bad: Lower volume on gain, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, mostly red body Advance/Decline: 0.62, three declining for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.06%), DJI (-0.44%), RUT (+0.82%), VIX (-5.71%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +0.80%) and Technology (XLK +0.47%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -0.41%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Trading was muted on Veteran's day as markets had lower than average volume. Nvidia led chipmakers higher while industrials weighed down the Dow Jones. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.52% gain, helped by the Technology sector. Volume was well-below average for the day. The index had an inside day, marked by a lower high and higher low. The candle is short but almost entirely red body as the rally in the morning faded throughout the rest of the day. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) led the day. The index closed with a +0.82% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed flat with a small +0.06% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.44%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -5.71%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Materials (XLB +0.80%) and Technology (XLK +0.47%) were at the top of the sector list. Industrials (XLI -0.41%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) were at the bottom. The US Dollar continues to strengthen. The index (DXY) climbed by +0.30% today. US Treasury markets were closed for Veteran's Day. Gold and Silver continue to gain. Gold gained +0.70% while Silver rose +2.49%. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum and gained for the day. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.583. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains in Extreme Fear but is declining a bit. The NAAIM money manager exposure index remained above 100, coming in at 103.69 this week. The index remained elevated in November 2020 as well. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) gained for the day, advancing +0.49%. Microsoft has the healthiest chart of the four. Apple (AAPL) remained below its 21d EMA but above its 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are still above both key moving averages. Nvidia (NVDA) was the top mega-cap for the day, advancing +3.16% today. Walt Disney (DIS) dropped -7.07%, ending the day at the bottom of the mega-cap list after missing estimates for both revenue and earnings. The Daily Update Growth List was about 50% gainers for the day. JD.com was the top stock in the list, gaining +8.31%. It was followed by Enphase (ENPH), which climbed by +8.21%. At the bottom of the list was Beyond Meat (BYND). The stock slumped -13.28% as analysts cut targets after the company lowered guidance for the year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The JOLTs Job Openings data will be in view tomorrow after the market opens. We will also get Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations data in the morning. AstraZeneca (AZN) will report earnings Friday morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied at the market open but faded the rest of the day. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, it would mean a +2.51% gain for Friday. That does not seem likely, and I'll retire that trend line depending on Friday's result. If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, it would mean a -0.12% decline. The five-day trend line, which now stretches from the all-time high, points to a -0.74% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was not much to look at in today's market as volume was lower due to the holiday. Given the inflation data this week, analysts will be looking at the impact on consumer sentiment and expectations data that comes tomorrow. If the data shows consumers brushing off the most recent month of inflation, that can soften the worries of long-lasting inflation. The expectation for Friday is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/10Summary: Inflation data caused selling in bond and equity markets while investors kept an eye on a possible default from China's Evergrande. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 10, 2021 Facts: -1.66%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 24%, Body: 41% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Large red body, low closing range, very low a/d ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Larger upper wick than lower wick, surrounding a thick red body Advance/Decline: 0.31, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.82%), DJI (-0.66%), RUT (-1.55%), VIX (+5.34%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.81%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.30%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.65%) and Energy (XLE -2.64%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Inflation data caused selling in bond and equity markets while investors kept an eye on a possible default from China's Evergrande. The Nasdaq finished the day with a -1.66% decline, the worst day in over a month. The candle has a large red body below an upper wick that is longer than the lower wick, and the closing range is only 24%. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. Still, volume was lower than the previous day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also had a significant decline, losing -1.55% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.82%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.66%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) climbed another +5.34%. The defensive sectors, Utilities (XLU +0.81%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.30%) were at the top of the sector list. Health (XLV +0.29%) was the only other sector to gain for the day. Technology (XLK -1.65%) and Energy (XLE -2.64%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The October Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.6% month-over-month, against the forecast of 0.4%. The index rose 4.6% year-over-year, while the expected growth was 4.3%. Initial Jobless Claims was lower than the previous week but slightly higher than the forecast. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY) rising +0.94% to its highest level since July 2020. US 20y, 10y, and 2y yields all rose sharply on the inflation news. The 2y yield is at its highest level since the pandemic began. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bonds both declined. Gold, an inflation hedge, grew another +0.94%, which is impressive considering the US Dollar strengthened by the same amount. Timber and Copper both declined for the day, while Aluminum gets some support after several weeks of declines. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.651. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved closer to the Greed range but remained at the Extreme Greed level. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) closed below its 21d EMA but remained above its 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) got support at its 21d EMA despite declining -2.03% for the day. Amazon (AMZN) fell -2.63% after several days of gains. Tesla (TSLA) was the top mega-cap for the day, helped by investors buying the dip after yesterday's massive decline. The stock is up +4.34% for today. Mastercard (MA) and Pfizer (PFE) also did well today, both gaining more than 3.5%. Nvidia (NVDA) declined -3.91% today, ending up at the bottom of the mega-cap list. DoorDash (DASH) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +11.58% after proposing an acquisition of Wolt Delivery for $8 billion. Most stocks in the Growth List declined for the day. Palantir (PLTR) was the worst-performing stock on the list, dropping -7.13% as analysts downgraded the stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The OPEC Monthly Report comes in the morning on Thursday. Otherwise, the only interesting news will be out of Europe as GDP data for the UK and an economic forecast for the European Union become available overnight. Merck (MKKGY), Celsius (CELH), Dillards (DDS), Nordstrom (JWN), GrowGeneration (GRWG), Lordstown Motors (RIDE) are some of the notable earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped sharply today but remains above the 21d EMA, and the 21d EMA is above the 15,400 support area. If the index returns to its trend-line from the 10/4 low, it would mean a +2.95% gain for Thursday. That seems unlikely. The five-day trend line is in decline, but returning to the trend line would mean a +0.68% gain for the index. If the one-day trend line continues, that would mean another -2.09% decline for tomorrow. That would require breaking through 21d EMA support and the 15,400 support area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The inflation data is causing turmoil in both equity and bond markets. However, we did expect some pullback this week, and we are only down -2.18%. There is another percentage point to go down before hitting the 21d EMA. Keep in mind that the weekly chart is still in an uptrend despite the red candle. The expectation for tomorrow is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/9Summary: Producer Price Index data confirmed fears of continued high inflation for the month of October. We already expected indexes to pull back after a long streak of daily gains, but the inflation worries helped solidify the trend reversal. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 9, 2021 Facts: -0.60%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 25%, Body: 69% Red Good: Lower volume on pullback Bad: Lower high, lower low, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Bearish engulfing body marks trend reversal Advance/Decline: 0.47, more than two declining for every Indexes: SPX (-0.35%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (-0.63%), VIX (+3.25%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Materials (XLB +0.46%) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.55%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.85%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Producer Price Index data confirmed fears of continued high inflation for the month of October. We already expected indexes to pull back after a long streak of daily gains, but the inflation worries helped solidify the trend reversal. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.60% decline for the day. The red body engulfs the bodies of the previous two thin bodies in indecisive candles. The bearish engulfing body confirms the reversal in an uptrend. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The good news is that volume was lower than the previous day, signaling less conviction by sellers. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.35%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.31%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.63%. The VIX Volatility Index continues to rise, advancing +3.25% today. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Materials (XLB +0.46%) were the top sectors for the day as a mix of defensive and cyclical sectors moved higher. Financials (XLF -0.55%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.85%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The Core Producer Price Index (PPI), which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.4% month-over-month for October. That was higher than the 0.2% growth for September but lower than the forecast by analysts of 0.5%. The total PPI was 0.6% month-over-month, which matched the forecast. A 10-year treasury note auction showed lower demand than usual as investors worried about longer-term inflation. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was at -2.9 million barrels vs. the forecast of +1.9 m barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped -0.08% for the day. The US 30y Treasury Yield dropped for another day, approaching its year-to-date lows. The US 10y and 2y yields also declined for the day. High inflation data would typically push yields higher, but the fact that yields dropped is something to note and could signal bond investors confidence in the Fed controlling inflation in the longer term. It could also just be some hope that the Consumer Price Index data will positively surprise investors tomorrow. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day. Gold, a common hedge against inflation, is at its highest point since the middle of June. Crude Oil Futures moved higher based on higher demand. Aluminum Futures continue to fall. The metal is critical to many parts of the supply chain, and so it is significant to see prices fall so far from record highs in October. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.551. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Extreme Greed range. Amazon (AMZN) continues to rally back to health with a +2.50% gain today. The stock has climbed 8% in the last five days since closing below its 200d moving average. The chart has nearly filled the gap created on July 30. Apple (AAPL) also advanced today, climbing by +0.25%. The other two of the four largest mega-caps declined, with Microsoft (MSFT) losing -0.21% and Alphabet (GOOGL) falling -0.08%. Amazon topped the mega-cap list, followed by Nike (NKE). Nike gained +1.15%. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list, falling -11.99% today as investors continue to react to Elon Musk's tweet over the weekend that signaled he might sell $21 billion worth of his position. PayPal (PYPL) disappointed investors with their guidance during an earnings call, sending the stock lower by -10.46%. Zynga (ZNG) and DR Horton (DHI) smashed investor expectations with their earnings, marching +9.44% and +5.18% higher. They topped the Daily Update Growth List. Joining PayPal and Tesla at the bottom of the growth list was Lemonade (LMND). Despite solid earnings, Lemonade declined -10.72% after making investors nervous with guidance and some key business metrics. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The focus will be on October's Consumer Price Index data, released before the market opens on Wednesday. The CPI data will show how much produce price inflation passed along to consumers. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will also be available. After the market opens, Crude Oil Inventories will be available. Walt Disney (DIS), Opendoor (OPEN), Bumble (BMBL), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Wendy's (WEN) are a few of the earnings reports scheduled for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq declined for the first time in 12 sessions. The index extended more than 6% above its 50-day moving average before pulling back. If the one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, it would mean a -0.58% decline. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 10/4 low point to a +1.10% gain for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's easy to look at today's decline as a reaction to inflation fears. However, indexes were extended after many consecutive days of gains and needed to pause or decline to let moving averages catch up. Good or bad surprises in Consumer Price Index data in the morning will undoubtedly impact investor sentiment. Equity markets will react in the short term, but look for what happens in the bond market for what big investors believe about whether inflation is sticky or transitory. Based on the bearish engulfing candle signaling a trend reversal, the expectation for tomorrow is for Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2