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Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Sector early indicator? No, Consumer Staples, not that much.The Consumer Staples sector - here represented by Procter & Gamble (PG, in pink), Coca Cola (KO, in yellow) and PepsiCo (PEP, in purple) - are mostly not strong early indicators against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... KO & PEP fell from peaks in July 1998, then a period of over six months of weak underperforming prices from Dec 2014, a period of around two and a half months of weak underperforming prices from Aug 2017, then weak underperforming prices for KO & PEP during all of Aug 2018, and a period of around two and a half months of weak underperforming prices from mid Oct 2019.
DJ:DJI
by dartde
Sector early indicator? Telecommunications - not much at all.The Telecommunications sector - here represented by AT&T (T, in teal) and Verizon (VZ, in pink), - does not often clearly act as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks in Jul 1999, then a prolonged period around two years of weak underperforming prices from 2013-2015, and then another prolonged period of around ten months of weak underperforming prices in 2017, and a period of around two months of weak underperforming prices from Nov 2019.
DJ:DJI
by dartde
Sector early indicator? Media sector, only occasionally.The Media sector, a Consumer Discretionary sub-sector - here represented by Disney (DIS, in purple) and Comcast (CMACSA, in blue), - only occasionally act as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks: prior to the end of May 2007, prolonged 5 months of weak underperforming prices in 2017, a month and a half of weak underperforming prices around Nov 2019.
DJ:DJI
by dartde
Sector early indicator? Retail sector - not much (but watch WMT)The general Retail Sector (as opposed to retailing of hardware home improvements by Home Depot and Lowes - studied in an earlier chart) - here represented by the VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH, in green), and the mighty Walmart (WMT, in blue) - only occasionally (more often by WMT) acts as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks... WMT peaking on 29 Dec 1999, WMT falling from a peak in Jun 2007, WMT fading from a peak in Jan 2011, WMT in Jan 2015, WMT in Dec 2019.
DJ:DJI
by dartde
Daily Market Update for 6/15Summary: After higher than expected producer price index data this morning, investors prepared themselves for the Fed comments scheduled on Wednesday. Major indices fell on the fear that Fed officials will start to push for earlier interest rate hikes and tapering of asset purchase programs. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 15, 2021 Facts: -0.71%, Volume higher, Closing range: 17%, Body: 79% Good: Held above 14,000 support area Bad: Selling most of the day. Lower high and lower low. Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks. Advanced/Decline: 0.42, Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.20%), DJI (-0.27%), RUT (-0.26%), VIX (+3.72%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.90%) and Industrials (XLI +0.43%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.92%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After higher than expected producer price index data this morning, investors prepared themselves for the Fed comments scheduled on Wednesday. Major indices fell on the fear that Fed officials will start to push for earlier interest rate hikes and tapering of asset purchase programs. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.71% loss for the day, on higher volume. The candle is predominantly a red body and represents selling throughout the day as the bears stepped in. The closing range of 17% is above a small lower wick formed from a small rally into the close. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The tech-heavy Nasdaq had the worst losses for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.20%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.27%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.26%. The VIX volatility index rose +3.72%. Energy (XLE +1.90%) and Industrials (XLI +0.43%) were the top gaining sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -0.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.92%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was flat with only a +0.01% advance. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields remained about the same while the 2y yield dropped. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.89%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -1.49%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.541. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined today, but all remain above their key 50 day moving average and 21d exponential moving average lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.84%, Apple (AAPL) dropped -0.64%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.59%. Amazon (AMZN) lost just -0.02%. All of these declines were on lighter volume. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the mega-cap list with 3.6% and 2.2% gains. Toyota Motor (TM ) and AT&T (T) were the next two best-performing mega-caps. At the bottom of the list were Adobe (ADBE), Netflix (NFLX), Alibaba (BABA), and Tesla (TSLA). Only Pinterest (PINS) and D.R. Horton (DHI) gained for the day in the daily update growth stock list. The worst losers were Up Fintech (TIGR), with a -16.3% loss, Lemonade (LMND), Roku (ROKU), and GrowGeneration (GRWG). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Build Permits and Housing Starts data will be released in the morning on Wednesday. Crude Oil Inventories get an update after the market opens. The most important event for the week will come in the afternoon. The Fed will release Meeting Minutes and a Fed Interest Rate Decision at 2:00 pm. The Fed Economic Projections will follow that. Investors will watch these updates from the Fed very closely, and the reactions could be oversized in either direction. There are no significant earnings releases for this daily update on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index remained above the 14,000 support area throughout the day. The five-day trend-line and the trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +067% advance for Wednesday. The one-day trend-line points to a -0.58% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I set the expectation for sideways yesterday, not sure which way the index would go based on several days of gains and resistance at the all-time high. Fear won out after the producer price index data was higher than expected. Based on the red candle, the expectation will be for Sideways or Lower, but the result really depends on the reaction to the Fed statements in the afternoon. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/14Summary: The Nasdaq continued its march higher while the other major indices paused or pulled back. The gains focused on mid and large-cap growth stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 14, 2021 Facts: +0.74%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 76% Good: High closing range, higher volume, large green body Bad: Advance/decline ratio below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Short lower wick filled opening gap, thick green body, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.86, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (-0.25%), RUT (-0.41%), VIX (+4.73%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.01%) and, Communications (XLC +0.66%) were top. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Materials (XLB -1.23%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq continued its march higher while the other major indices paused or pulled back. The gains focused on mid and large-cap growth stocks. The index closed with a +0.75% gain on higher volume than Friday. The closing range reached 99% in the last 30 minutes of trading, while the 76% green body represents a steady climb throughout the day. The higher high marks the seventh session in a row to reach a higher high. The close is only 0.25% below a new all-time high. However, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at another all-time high with a +0.18% advance today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.25%, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.41%. The VIX volatility index rose +4.73%. Technology (XLK +1.01%) and Communications (XLC +0.66%) were top, helped by mid and large-cap growth stocks. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Materials (XLB -1.23%) were the bottom sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was flat with only a -0.01% decline. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields rose for a second day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined slightly. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose +3.89%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.89%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.469. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the greed side but still near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) broke out today with a +2.46% gain taking the price above the 50d MA. All four largest mega-caps are now above their 50d MA and 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) added to recent gains with a +1.11% advance today. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.78%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.77%. Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce.com (CRM), Apple, and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) topped the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the list were Cisco Systems (CSCO), Bank of America (BAC), Pfizer (PFE), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM). Ehang Holdings (EH), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Fastly (FSLY), and Square (SQ) were the top four growth stocks in the daily update list. At the bottom of the list were Sumo Digital (SUMO), Draft Kings (DKNG), Penn National Gaming (PENN), and Digital Turbine (APPS). The growth list is mostly advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Producer Price Index data is scheduled for release on Tuesday. We will also get an update on Retail sales data. Both sets of data come before the market open. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data will be released after the market close. Earnings reports for Tuesday include Oracle (ORCL), H&R Block (HRB), and La-Z-Boy (LZB). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index came within 0.25% of a new all-time high today. Expect some resistance at the all-time high area before moving higher. The one-day trend-line points to a +0.13% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend-line leads to a small loss of -0.04%. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a -0.28% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The momentum for the Nasdaq continues, albeit at lower volume today. The index is getting close to a new all-time high where we can expect some resistance before it moves higher. The expectation is for sideways tomorrow. Higher would be a positive surprise and indicate a very bullish market. Lower will need to be evaluated but would likely come from caution as we head into the Fed comments on Wednesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
A Comprehensive NASDAQ Analysis..!First, let's define the NASDAQ Composite Index: The Nasdaq Composite Index is a large market-cap-weighted index of more than 2,500 stocks, American depositary receipts (ADRs), and real estate investment trusts (REITs), among others. The index is calculated constantly throughout the trading day with the final value reported at 4:16 p.m. daily once prices have fully settled after the 4:00 p.m. ET market close. The Index's composition is nearly 50% technology, with consumer services, health care, and financials the next most prominent industries. What Is an Uptrend? An uptrend describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction is upward. In an uptrend, each successive peak and trough is higher than the ones found earlier in the trend. The uptrend is therefore composed of higher swing lows and higher swing highs. As long as the price is making these higher swing lows and higher swing highs, the uptrend is considered intact. Some market participants only choose to trade during uptrends. These "long" trend traders utilize various strategies to take advantage of the tendency for the price to make higher highs and higher lows. What Is V-Shaped Recovery? V-shaped recovery is a type of economic recession and recovery that resembles a "V" shape in charting. Specifically, a V-shaped recovery represents the shape of a chart of economic measures economists create when examining recessions and recoveries. A V-shaped recovery involves a sharp rise back to a previous peak after a sharp decline in these metrics. Complex corrections Complex corrections are multiple ABC corrections that are joined by a three-wave price move identified as wave X. Each of the waves in a complex correction adheres to the basic Elliott structures identified for corrections. That is, Zigzags, Flats, or Triangles. A: Don't trade them on purpose. If you find yourself in one, find an appropriate exit point or be prepared to wait out the correction and return to the trend. B: They provide no known predictive value, although we can predict you will be miserable if you are holding through one of them. C: A complex correction will first become obvious when your expected movement into the next wave of a correction fails to breakout and instead pivots and reverses. You can then mark the 3 wave structure as Wave X and expect another one or two A, B, C corrections to follow. A one-year Bullish channel: What Is a Price Channel? A price channel occurs when a security's price oscillates between two parallel lines, whether they be horizontal, ascending, or descending. Price channels are quite useful in identifying breakouts, which is when a security's price breaches either the upper or lower channel trendline. Traders can sell when price approaches the price channel's upper trendline and buy when it tests the lower trendline. Fibonacci Fan approach: A Fibonacci fan is a method of plotting support and resistance levels based on the ratios provided by the Fibonacci series. Trendlines are drawn at intervals of 23.6, 38.2, 50, and 61.8 percent apart to predict retracements. The Fibonacci ratio, also known as the "golden ratio," is roughly 1.618. This ratio is found throughout the natural and social sciences. Half a Century: A Decade: Post Pandemic era: What Is "Sell in May and Go Away"? "Sell in May and go away" is a well-known financial-world adage. It is based on the historical underperformance of some stocks in the "summery" six-month period commencing in May and ending in October, compared to the "wintery" six-month period from November to April. If an investor follows this strategy, they would divest their equity holdings in May (or at least, the late spring) and invest again in November (or the mid-autumn). Some investors find this strategy more rewarding than staying in the equity markets throughout the year. They subscribe to the belief that, as warm weather sets in, low volumes and the lack of market participants (presumably on vacations) can make for a somewhat riskier, or at a minimum lackluster, market period. From 1950 to around 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted lower returns during the May to October period, compared with the November to April period. Since 2013, statistics suggest this seasonal pattern may not be the case anymore, and those who follow it may miss out on significant stock market gains. What about this summer??? I will not publish my answer to this question publicly..! I did a comprehensive analysis of the NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) in the past 50 years. I cancel recording a YouTube video on this analysis because data analysis of my previous videos shows my followers did not find them interesting. I have 5450 followers on the TradingView platform, 987 on my free educational channel who use my analyses freely. In the past 2 months, I recorded 7 videos, and 318 individuals subscribed to my YouTube Channel. These statistics convinced me not to waste time. I published the analysis in the usual article format, a more detailed version will be available for patrons and paid subscribers. Moshkelgosha (SniperTrader) References: www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.bata4u.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
TVC:IXIC
by Moshkelgosha
9
NASDAQ 1 last Run BULLISH TARGET is 17000Each wave of this extension had an ABC. We will start wave 5 this week and the gainage will happen quickly. This summer will be hot. after 17K is reached on this index, then we crash. PROOF Indicators: Wolfpack curling up for another run Room on RSI for squeeze Buy signal on the Potato indicator CHART + ELLIOT ANALYSIS The same Fractal of the previous wave will play out. (ABC transitions in the Elliot wave EXTENSION) The top of the channel is confluent with the Fibonacci!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by ILuminosity
Market Week in Review - 6/7/2021 - 6/11/2021Summary: It was a week of slow but sure advances, with every day reaching a higher high than the previous day. Only one day saw a decline in the closing price, and that was only -0.09%. Volume was high entering the week and then wained later in the week while the advance/decline line remained above 1.0 on average through the week. Crazy meme stocks aside, the week wasn't exhilarating, but it's a good week of building support for higher prices. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "The Meaning of Life." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 7, 2021 Facts: +0.49%, Volume higher, Closing range: 93%, Body: 76% Good: Positive move on higher volume, good breadth. Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Small upper and lower wick surrounding a thick green body Advanced/Decline: 1.47, Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (+1.43%), VIX (+0.00%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%) and Communications (XLC +0.52%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.69%) and Materials (XLB -1.22%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Growth investors seemed cautious in the first half of the session but turned bullish by the close. The caution showed up in the leading sectors after the market opened. As the morning ended, the action began rotating back toward growth. The Nasdaq gained +0.49%, on higher volume. A short lower and upper wick surrounding a 76% green body represents the steady climb throughout the day. The closing range of 93% came after the index made a late afternoon intraday high, dipped, and quickly recovered. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 8, 2021 Facts: +0.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 62%, Body: 14% Good: Positive move on higher volume, higher high, higher low Bad: Red body, indecisive candle, expected resistance at 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 1.16, More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.02%), DJI (-0.09%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (+3.83%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.86%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.81%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.84%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The growth trade is continuing to build steam as investors await more inflation data later this week. The cautious start yesterday morning abated, and investors slowly rotated back into some growth and cyclical sectors today. Meme stocks continued crazy moves. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.31% gain on higher volume. A long lower wick formed in the morning selling after a gap-up open that tested 14,000 resistance. Despite the morning selling, the index recovered to close just below where it opened, creating a thin 14% red body in the upper half of the candle. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 9, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, higher low, low above Monday's high Bad: Could not stay above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly red body, no lower wick, short upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.86, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.18%), DJI (-0.44%), RUT (-0.71%), VIX (+4.92%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.97%) and Utilities (XLU +0.89%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.94%) and Industrials (XLI -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The major indices bounced around today while investors await inflation data released by the Labor Department tomorrow. A dip in Treasury yields helped boost some large mega-caps and growth stocks, but stocks in the Nasdaq did not share the gains broadly. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.09% decline after briefly rising above 14,000 for the first time since early May. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is mostly red body with a closing range of 5%. The upper wick formed just after the open. The index approached 14,000 again in the early afternoon but reversed after the 10y note auction. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 10, 2021 Facts: +0.78%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 68% Good: High closing range, close above 14,000 Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, mostly green body with a longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.66, Three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.47%), DJI (+0.06%), RUT (-0.68%), VIX (-10.0%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.71%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.60%) and Financials (XLF -1.17%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Consumer price data was higher than expected, but not that high. After an initial premarket reaction, the major indices moved higher on the day while yields continued their drop and volatility moved out of the market. The Nasdaq advanced +0.78% on lower volume and closed above 14,000. The candle is mostly green body with a short lower wick and even shorter upper wick. The high closing range of 91% and body of 68% is bullish, but there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks and volume overall was lower. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 11, 2021 Facts: +0.35%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 61% Good: 100% closing range with good advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Short lower wick under green body, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.2, More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-2.79%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.64%) and Technology (XLK +0.60%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.63%) and Health (XLV -0.71%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher The gains in equities were small but steady through this week. On Friday, the market rallied into close and headed into the weekend with a confidence boost. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.35%, capping a week of gains that saw every day reach higher than the previous day. Volume was lower and faded in the last three days. Today's candle ended with a 100% closing range, thanks to a rally in the final 30 minutes of the session. The small lower wick is under a 61% green body. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week It was a week of slow but sure advances, with every day reaching a higher high than the previous day. Only one day saw a decline in the closing price, and that was only -0.09%. Volume was high entering the week and then wained later in the week while the advance/decline line remained above 1.0 on average through the week. Crazy meme stocks aside, the week wasn't exhilarating, but it's a good week of building support for higher prices. Compare these past three weeks to the weeks from March 25 to April 16. Those weeks led to a new all-time high, but the support was not there, and the index quickly retreated. It's interesting to go back to the weekly updates from that period and compare the underlying support in the market. The chart shows several gap-up opens as the index rallied, but the gains were driven mainly by a few big mega-caps, and the advance/decline ratio remained below 1.0 during the same period. Consumer demand was rising while a fire breaks out in a Japan chipmaker facility and a ship blocks the Suez canal, disrupting supply chains across industries. Biden released his infrastructure plans, sending commodity prices even higher. The coming inflation alarm should have been so easy to see, but investors were still moving money back into big tech and growth stocks. Finally, on Friday, 4/30, inflation data surprises investors sending the index lower and eventually back down to 13,000. It also didn't help that Janet Yellen hinted toward higher interest rates, and hackers attacked an oil pipeline on the east coast of the US. The past three weeks, including this week, we have seen gains in the index while investors face the reality of inflation and growing confidence in the Fed's promises not to change monetary policy. However, while they were building positions back into growth stocks, there is also an indication of caution. We aren't clear of all the worries yet. Everyone will be looking closely at comments in the Fed meeting minutes and statements made this coming week. But for now, it seems we have much more stable growth in prices and a path toward higher highs. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.85% gain for the week. Volume was lower than the previous week. The closing range of 100% is thanks to a rally in the last 30 minutes of trading on Friday. There is a barely visible lower wick, while the weekly candle is mostly green, representing the consistent gains through the week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +2.16% for the week as it moves above a base, forming since March. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week at a record high, gaining +0.42% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.80% this week. The VIX volatility moved -4.59% lower, closing the week at pre-pandemic levels. It was a mix of defensive sectors and growth stocks at the top of the sector list this week, while the cyclical sectors took a step back. Real Estate ( XLRE ) led the sector list, continuing to gain on a solid housing market, higher rents, as well as a defense against potential inflation. Health Care ( XLV ) also rallied this week, ending the week in second place on the sector list. Eli Lilly ( LLY ) helped boost the sector with news that the FDA may approve a new Alzheimer's therapy. The stock and the sector faded late in the week on the controversy over statements made by the company. Technology ( XLK ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) were third and fourth on the list, with steady increases throughout the week as investors became more confident in the growth trade. The cyclical stocks fell this past week. Financials ( XLF ) suffered from lower treasury yields, potentially impacting interest rates that drive revenue for the sector. Industrials ( XLI ) and Materials ( XLB ) declined as more of congress pushes back on Biden's infrastructure spending proposals. The US Treasury 30y, 10y, and 2y yields declined for another week, and the spread between long and short-term yields tightened significantly. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.42% for the week. Silver (SILVER) declined -0.35%, and Gold (GOLD) declined -0.70%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +2.58%, continuing to move toward highs in 2018. Timber (WOOD) continues its decline, losing -2.04% this week. This is the fifth week of declines. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +0.76%. Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +0.42%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps look promising this week. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) moved above their 10-week moving average lines, with Amazon gaining +4.39% and Microsoft gaining +2.83%. Amazon's gain comes after several weeks of support at the 40-week moving average line. Microsoft's gain was after several weeks of resistance at the 10-week line. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.16% but still closed below the 10-week moving average. Alphabet (GOOGL) continues to show the most strength among the four with a +1.53% gain this week and remaining above the 10-week moving average since early in April. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose +1.17% this week while oil prices continuing to rise. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) declined -2.00%. Delta (DAL) and Marriott (MAR) gained +1.13% and +1.00% as both form a base just below the 10w moving average line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been riding support at the 40-week moving average line, gaining +8.98 this week. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined +7.04%, meeting resistance at the 10-week moving average line. Litecoin (LTCUSD) declined -3.04% but also has support at the 40-week moving average. Bitcoin Cash (BTHUSD) declined -6.42%. Despite the declines from Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash, their average relative strength remains higher than the CIX. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved lower, ending the week at 0.558. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is just to the greed side of neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined slightly to 79.65. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. Tuesday Producer Price Index data is scheduled for release on Tuesday. We will also get an update on Retail sales data. Both sets of data come before the market open. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data will be released after the market close. Earnings reports for Tuesday include Oracle (ORCL), H&R Block (HRB), and La-Z-Boy (LZB). Wednesday Build Permits and Housing Starts data will be released in the morning on Wednesday. Crude Oil Inventories get an update after the market opens. The most important events for the day will come in the afternoon. The Fed will release Meeting Minutes and a Fed Interest Rate Decision at 2:00 pm. The Fed Economic Projections will follow that. Investors will watch these updates from the Fed very closely, and the reactions could be oversized in either direction. There are no significant earnings releases for this daily update on Wednesday. Thursday Initial Jobless Claims data is expected to continue to improve on Thursday. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be released before the market opens. Adobe (ADBE), Kroger (KR), and Jabil (JBL) release earnings on Thursday. The Jabil report will be before the market opens. Friday There is not much significant economic news scheduled for Friday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side This week's bullish and bearish outlook both focus on the Fed comments for Wednesday. Will the Fed have a strong stance toward continuing monetary policy to support the economy further back to health? There are several reasons why they will continue. Jerome Powell has made it clear that they would not change economic support until employment fully recovers. Although employment data is getting better, as indicated by the nonfarm jobs report two weeks ago and the lower initial jobless claims, the labor market is still not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. The fears of a monetary policy change have mainly come from rising inflation. Investors have had to balance high inflation data with the level of trust they have in the Fed's statements that inflation is transitionary. There is plenty to indicate that it is transitionary. Much of the price increase pressures have been due to supply chain issues among rising consumer demand, which should ease in the next quarter. Biden's infrastructure plans are meeting resistance among Republicans and even some Democrats. The negotiations will result in a smaller plan and less pressure on commodity prices, helping to ease inflation worries. Employment and inflation will be two significant factors in the Fed's comments on Wednesday. There will be others, including the broader health of the global economy and the progress of the pandemic recovery in Europe and Asia. Altogether, one can expect the Fed to continue monetary policy without any hint of tapering just yet. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Or the Fed might start "talking about talking about" tapering. The mere hint of discussion about when the tapering should start will send investors into a tantrum even if a year away. Even worse is if the Fed starts to signal to worry about inflation being less transitionary than previously thought. That will have investors reconsidering the net present value of future growth in their portfolios and perhaps move into instruments better protected from inflation. Whatever the Fed says on Wednesday, we can expect investors to be very sensitive and reactions to be significant. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq closed above the 14,000 resistance area this week. The 21d EMA crossed back above the 50d MA, a good confirmation of the upward trend. The index is also staying close to the middle of a regression trend channel from the 5/12 low. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was 14,069.42. Let's make a new weekly high. The all-time high is at 14,211.57. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,256 by the end of the week. On the downside, there are a few key levels: 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. The 10d MA is at 13,847.87. The low of this past week is 13,784.89. The 21d EMA is at 13,765.00, moving back above the 50d MA. The 50d MA is at 13,740.87. There is a pivot at 13,548.93. This is a "higher low" in the current uptrend. There is a support area at 13,000. 13,002.54 is a pivot from May. Below this level is a correction. 12,730.95 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seems we have something significant to watch every week recently. A few weeks ago, it was inflation. Then it was employment data. This past week, investors focused on consumer sentiment and prices. This coming week, all the focus will be on the Fed on Wednesday. Wednesday's Fed comments could support the index to move back into new all-time highs, or it could be another pivot to the downside and retests of major support areas. There's no way to predict what will happen. The important thing is to know the event is coming and have a plan for your portfolio. Maybe you plan to hold through any news. Perhaps you plan to take some profits. Or set stops at a place that you are comfortable with the risk level. Either way, have a good week. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/11Summary: The gains in equities were small but steady through this week. On Friday, the market rallied into close and headed into the weekend with a confidence boost. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 11, 2021 Facts: +0.35%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 61% Good: 100% closing range with good advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Short lower wick under green body, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.2, More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-2.79%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.64%) and Technology (XLK +0.60%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.63%) and Health (XLV -0.71%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The gains in equities were small but steady through this week. On Friday, the market rallied into close and headed into the weekend with a confidence boost. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.35%, capping a week of gains that saw every day reach higher than the previous day. Volume was lower and faded in the last three days. Today's candle ended with a 100% closing range, thanks to a rally in the final 30 minutes of the session. The small lower wick is under a 61% green body. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.19%, closing the week near a new all-time high set yesterday. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +1.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.06%. The VIX volatility index dropped another -2.79%., its lowest close in over a year. Financials (XLF +0.64%) and Technology (XLK +0.60%) were top, with growth stocks helping drive gains. Real Estate (XLRE -0.63%) and Health (XLV -0.71%) were at the bottom of the list after topping the sector list yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed +0.50%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields climbed slightly after declining for several days. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices continued to advance. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose +1.73%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.82%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.558. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the greed side but still near neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined slightly to 79.65. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.98% and +0.25% today. While Microsoft is above its 21d EMA and 50d MA, Apple is still below the 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.08% after a big gain yesterday, bringing the stock above the key moving average lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.20%. Nvidia (NVDA), Adobe (ADBE), Apple, and Intel (INTC) topped the mega-cap list, helping to boost tech stocks. At the bottom of the list were Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), suffering from a sell-off in the Health sector. Exxon Mobile (XOM) also showed up in the bottom four. UP Fintech (TIGR) and NIO (NIO) topped the daily update growth stock list. Both are Chinese companies. Peloton (PTON) and DoorDash (DASH) were in the top four of the list, which is mostly gainers for the day. At the bottom of the list were DraftKings (DKNG), Snowflake (SNOW), RH (RH), and Chewy (CHWY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index stayed above 14,000 today, helping build support at that level. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.31% gain for Monday. Following the trend-line from the 5/13 low would result in a +0.09% gain. The one-day trend line points to a slight -0.07% regression on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a great way to end the week with a 100% closing range on the daily and weekly charts. We got used to big swings to the upside in 2020 and early 2021. The gains we see now are slow and steady. Nevertheless, those gains are welcome and show deliberate investments vs. overly bullish gains from fear of missing out. Looking forward to next week, watch for the producer price index data on Tuesday and the Fed comments and meeting minutes on Wednesday as critical moments for the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/10Summary: Consumer price data was higher than expected, but not that high. After an initial premarket reaction, the major indices moved higher on the day while yields continued their drop and volatility moved out of the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 10, 2021 Facts: +0.78%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 68% Good: High closing range, close above 14,000 Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, mostly green body with a longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.66, Three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.47%), DJI (+0.06%), RUT (-0.68%), VIX (-10.0%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.71%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.60%) and Financials (XLF -1.17%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer price data was higher than expected, but not that high. After an initial premarket reaction, the major indices moved higher on the day while yields continued their drop and volatility moved out of the market. The Nasdaq advanced +0.78% on lower volume and closed above 14,000. The candle is mostly green body with a short lower wick and even shorter upper wick. The high closing range of 91% and body of 68% is bullish, but there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks and volume overall was lower. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) only advanced +0.06%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) pulled back with a -0.68% decline. The VIX volatility dropped -10.00%., its lowest close in over a year. Health (XLV +1.71%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) topped the sector list. Utilities (XLU +0.66%) was also in the top four. These three sectors at the top of the list would indicate caution in the market. However, mixed in to that is Technology (XLK +0.74%) and Communications (XLC +0.54%). Materials (XLB -0.60%) and Financials (XLF -1.17%) were the bottom sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) dropped -0.09%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields continued to decline. The spread between long term and short term yields tightened to levels in early March. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.85%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -5.35%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.600. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined slightly to 6.95. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) is the only one of the four largest mega-caps to decline today, with a -0.80% loss, and remaining below the 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.09% and moved above its 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.44% and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.13%. Both Microsoft and Alphabet are trading above the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Adobe (ADBE), Eli Lilly (LLY), ASML Holding (ASML) and PayPal (PYPL) were the top four mega-caps. Most mega-caps gained for the day. At the bottom of the list were Apple, Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Oracle (ORCL). RH (RH) was the top daily update growth stock with a 15.67% gain thanks to a great earnings beat. CrowdStrike (CRWD), DoorDash (DASH), and Service Now (NOW) were the other growth stocks to top the list. Ehang Holdings (EH), GrowGeneration (GRWG), UP Fintech (TIGR) and Lemonade (LMND) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get the first consumer sentiment and expectations data for June after the market opens on Friday morning. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index was able to close above the 14,000 line today. All three trend-lines are pointing to a the range between a +0.10% and +0.41% gain for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a nice advance for the Nasdaq today. However, there is some weakness in the volume and breadth of gains across stocks in the index. The defensive sectors at the top of the sector list is also a reason for some pause. Investors do not seem to be in agreement on whether the consumer price data was good news, or bad news, or no news. We'll look for a continuation of higher tomorrow to confirm the direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/9Summary: The major indices bounced around today while investors await inflation data released by the Labor Department tomorrow. A dip in Treasury yields helped boost some large mega-caps and growth stocks, but stocks in the Nasdaq did not share the gains broadly. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 9, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, higher low, low above Monday's high Bad: Could not stay above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly red body, no lower wick, short upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.86, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.18%), DJI (-0.44%), RUT (-0.71%), VIX (+4.92%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.97%) and Utilities (XLU +0.89%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.94%) and Industrials (XLI -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The major indices bounced around today while investors await inflation data released by the Labor Department tomorrow. A dip in Treasury yields helped boost some large mega-caps and growth stocks, but stocks in the Nasdaq did not share the gains broadly. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.09% decline after briefly rising above 14,000 for the first time since early May. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is mostly red body with a closing range of 5%. The upper wick formed just after the open. The index approached 14,000 again in the early afternoon but reversed after the 10y note auction. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.71%, the first decline in four days. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.44%. The VIX volatility gained +4.92%. Investors moved back into Health (XLV +0.97%) and Utilities (XLU +0.89%), sending them to the top of the sector list. The defensive move is probably to protect against reactions to inflation data on Thursday. Financials (XLF -0.94%) and Industrials (XLI -1.02%) were the bottom sectors. Materials (XLB -0.78%) also was near the bottom of the list. It's looking less likely that Biden's infrastructure plans will move forward as initially presented. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) remained at its current level. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined for a second day. The 2y yield also fell, but the spread between long-term and short-term yields tightened. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) advanced, Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose 11.20%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) gained +3.76%. (At the time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.487. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day, possibly helped by the lower treasury yields and easing inflation fears. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) could not close above their 50d MA despite gains of +0.31% and +0.52%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.40% and are above the key moving average lines. Novartis (NVS) slipped into the mega-cap list with a 202b market cap after a +2.83% gain today. Also at the top of the list were Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Abbvie (ABBV), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), all in the Health Sector. Netflix (NFLX), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), and Alibaba (BABA) were at the bottom of the list. UP Fintech (TIGR), MongoDB (MDB), SNAP (SNAP), and Moderna (MRNA) topped the daily update growth list. There were more losers than gainers in the growth list. The biggest losers were (RH), Fiverr (FVRR), Ehang Holdings (EH), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). RH is back up over 6% after hours on a great earnings report. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Economic news on Thursday includes the OPEC Monthly Report early in the morning. Core Consumer Price Index data gets released before the market open. Initial Jobless Claims also gets its weekly update. In the after, the Federal Budget Balance for May will be made available. On Thursday, the only significant earnings report for the daily update is Chewy (CHWY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index briefly topped 14,000 but then moved lower again. The five-day trend-line points to a +1.26% gain on Thursday. The trend-line from the 5/13 low ends with a +0.66% gain. The one-day trend-line leads to a -0.12% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up So we wait. The consumer price index data will be out in the morning, and investors can decide how bad it looks. We can expect changes in currencies, bonds, and equities depending on the reaction. Based on the chart and the resistance at 14,000, the expectation is for sideways or lower. If the pricing data does not raise inflation fears, that could be the expectation breaker we need and the catalyst to get the index back up above 14,000. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/8Summary: The growth trade is continuing to build steam as investors await more inflation data later this week. The cautious start yesterday morning abated, and investors slowly rotated back into some growth and cyclical sectors today. Meme stocks continued crazy moves. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 8, 2021 Facts: +0.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 62%, Body: 14% Good: Positive move on higher volume, higher high, higher low Bad: Red body, indecisive candle, expected resistance at 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 1.16, More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.02%), DJI (-0.09%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (+3.83%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.86%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.81%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.84%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The growth trade is continuing to build steam as investors await more inflation data later this week. The cautious start yesterday morning abated, and investors slowly rotated back into some growth and cyclical sectors today. Meme stocks continued crazy moves. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.31% gain on higher volume. A long lower wick formed in the morning selling after a gap-up open that tested 14,000 resistance. Despite the morning selling, the index recovered to close just below where it opened, creating a thin 14% red body in the upper half of the candle. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led again today with a +1.06% advance. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.02%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.09%. The VIX volatility gained +3.83%. The defensive sectors that led the sector list yesterday moved to the bottom today. Energy (XLE +0.86%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.81%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.84%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) were the worst-performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.18%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield remained about the same. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.23%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.72%. (At the time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.461. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.07%, taking it above the 21d EMA but falling short of the 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) also moved above its 21d EMA with a +0.67% gain but hit resistance intraday at the 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are trading above the two key moving average lines but declined at -0.49% and -0.16% today. Amazon, Exxon Mobil (XOM), PayPal (PYPL), and Chevron (CVX) lead the mega-cap list today. There were more declining mega-caps than gaining mega-caps, holding back the S&P 500 and Dow Jones from gains. Nvidia (NVDA), Pepsi Co (PEP), Proctor & Gamble (PG), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were at the bottom of the list. Ehang Holdings (EH) soared 18% today, topping the daily update growth list. Fastly (FSLY) gained over +10%, despite causing a widespread outage before the market opened. Lemonade (LMND) and Cloudflare (NET) round out the top four, both with better than 4% gains. Overall the growth list is about half gainers, half losers. At the bottom of the list are SNAP (SNAP), Moderna (MRNA), DoorDash (DASH), and UP Fintech (TIGR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday morning will bring Crude Oil Inventories data after the market opens. In the afternoon, a 10-Year Note Auction may have an impact on interest rates. GameStop (GME), RH (RH), and Lovesac (LOVE) will release earnings on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance As expected, the Nasdaq met resistance at 14,000 today. It could hold near that level and potentially rise above it tomorrow with the right catalyst. The three trend-lines (one-day, five-day, and from the 5/13 low) currently point to about the same place with a gain from +0.11% to +0.38% tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We are still seeing some indication that investors are eyeing opportunities to move back into growth stocks but keep a cautious foot out the door if inflation data is worse than expected. That data does not come until Thursday, so it's tough to know what to expect for Wednesday. Given the resistance at 14,000 today, it's reasonable to expect a sideways move or a step back before moving above that area. Sideways or lower. But we can hope for a surprise in the other direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/7Summary: Growth investors seemed cautious in the first half of the session but turned bullish by the close. The caution showed up in the leading sectors after the market opened. As the morning ended, the action began rotating back toward growth. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 5, 2021 Facts: +0.49%, Volume higher, Closing range: 93%, Body: 76% Good: Positive move on higher volume, good breadth. Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Small upper and lower wick surrounding a thick green body Advanced/Decline: 1.47, Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (+1.43%), VIX (+0.00%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%) and Communications (XLC +0.52%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.69%) and Materials (XLB -1.22%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Growth investors seemed cautious in the first half of the session but turned bullish by the close. The caution showed up in the leading sectors after the market opened. As the morning ended, the action began rotating back toward growth. The Nasdaq gained +0.49%, on higher volume. A short lower and upper wick surrounding a 76% green body represents the steady climb throughout the day. The closing range of 93% came after the index made a late afternoon intraday high, dipped, and quickly recovered. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) small caps did very well, with the index gaining +1.43% for the day. The FTSE Russell published the initial 3000 reconstitution list after market close on Friday, which possibly drew focus to the stocks in the list. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) were weighed down by cyclical sectors, declining at -0.08% and -0.36%. The VIX volatility moved intraday but closed where it closed on Friday. Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%), Health (XLV +0.36%), and Utilities (XLU +0.18%) led the sector list in the morning. Growth sectors performed better in the afternoon, with Communications (XLC +0.52%) moving to second place. The cyclical sectors performed the worst, with Industrials (XLI -0.69%) and Materials (XLB -1.22%) at the bottom of the list. The Health sector had a considerable advance in the morning on the excitement that Eli Lilly would get FDA approval for an Alzheimer's Therapy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.18%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -6.22%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.32%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.514. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is just to the fear side of neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) successfully tested its 50d MA before gaining +1.20% for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) is trading above its 21d EMA and 50d MA and gained +0.36% today. Apple (AAPL) could not move above its 21d EMA, ending the day with a +0.01% gain. Amazon (AMZN) is trading below both key moving average lines, declining -0.26% today. Eli Lilly (LLY) soared back into the mega-cap list and went straight to the top with a +10.15% gain today, boosting the Health sector. Facebook (FB), Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft, and Tesla (TSLA) were the next four, each with more than 1% gains. United Health (UNH), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Alibaba (BABA), and PayPal (PYPL) were at the bottom of the list. There were more declining mega-caps than advancing mega-caps. Gainers dominated the daily update growth stock list. Fastly (FSLY), Peloton (PTON), Moderna (MRNA), DraftKings (DKNG) topped the list. JD.com (JD), Zynga (ZNGA), FUTU Holding (FUTU), and Solar Edge (SEDG) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Trade Balance data for April will be released before the market opens on Tuesday. After the market opens, the JOLTS Job Openings report for April will be available. There is a 3-Year Note Auction in the afternoon, and Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be released after the market closes. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq stayed above the 13,700 area today. The index is heading toward expected resistance at the round number of 14,000. The one-day trend-line and the trend-line from the low on 5/13 both point to a +0.41% on Tuesday. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a -0.47% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was some hesitation among growth investors early in the day, but perhaps the lack of negative news in the morning warmed them back into the market by afternoon. Many small caps did well all day after the Russell 3000 began the annual reconstitution process where stocks are added and removed from the index. The initial list was released after the market close this past Friday. The gain on higher volume with breadth across the stocks in the Nasdaq is all a positive. Still, it seems investors could be a bit more greedy, which may come with a suitable catalyst. Trade Balance data on Tuesday is not likely to be the catalyst. Consumer Price Index data, if not surprisingly high, could alleviate inflation fears and help embolden investors back into growth. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 6/1/2021 - 6/4/2021Summary: The short week pivoted primarily on Friday's unemployment data, a key signal for investors of how well the economy is recovering. The Nasdaq declined through the first three days but rallied back on Friday after the data was released. The caution for investors was apparent in the top sector list before and after Friday's upside reversal. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "The Meaning of Life." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 1, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 37%, Body: 59% Good: Higher high, advance/decline ratio above 1.0, support at 13,700 Bad: Low closing range, faded from morning rally to a lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, thick red body with a tiny upper wick and longer lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 1.32, more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.05%), DJI (+0.13%), RUT (+1.14%), VIX (+6.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.85%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.71%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.61%) and Health (XLV -1.64%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted to set a record, but the small-cap Russell 2000 performed the best among major indices today. As for the Nasdaq, the first day of the summer months started with a rally but faded quickly and continued last week's sideways moves. The Nasdaq closed the day down -0.09% on lower volume. The opening price was nearly the high of the day, but then the index dropped to 13,700 before finding any support. That formed a 59% red body under a barely visible upper wick. The lower wick developed after the morning selling turned to afternoon buying. Despite the slight decline, there were more stocks advancing than stocks declining. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 2, 2021 Facts: +0.14%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 15% Good: Gain on higher volume, high closing range, support at 13,700 Bad: Lower high, thin green body Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, short spinning top with slight longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.91, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.14%), DJI (+0.07%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-2.24%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.86%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.39%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -0.84%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Another sideways move for the indexes while investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the economic data coming over the next two days. To pass the boredom, investors watched, or maybe even gambled with meme stocks that had another day of huge swings. The Nasdaq closed with a small +0.14% gain after dipping in the afternoon and finding support again at 13,700. Volume was higher, and the closing range of 77% is good with a thin green 15% body. The short upper wick was formed from gains in the morning, while the longer lower wick formed in selling at the start of the afternoon. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 3, 2021 Facts: -1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 47% (w/gap), Body: 30% Good: Not much Bad: Gap down at open, broke support at 13,700, close below major moving averages Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long lower wick, red body in upper half of the candle Advanced/Decline: 0.6, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.36%), DJI (-0.07%), RUT (-0.81%), VIX (+3.09%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.62%) and Utilities (XLU +0.60%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.93%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.19%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Mixed economic data moved investors into defensive mode on Thursday while they await more news on the labor market scheduled for Friday. Today's data gave a boost to the US Dollar but stoked fears of the Fed tapering off monetary policy earlier than expected. The defensive sectors were up for the day while growth sectors took a step back from recent gains. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.03% decline on higher volume, marking a day of distribution for investors. The closing range of 47% is not terrible, but the 30% red body shows the index could not fully recover from the sell-off after market open. The longer lower wick is representative of the failed attempt to rally back to above key moving average lines. There were more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 4, 2021 Facts: +1.47%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 87% Good: Held morning gains throughout day for a higher high and higher low Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny upper wick, no lower wick, small gap up Advanced/Decline: 1.04, About the same number of advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.88%), DJI (+0.52%), RUT (+0.31%), VIX (-8.87%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.92%) and Communications (XLC +1.43%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.09%) and Utilities (XLU -0.15%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher The market responded positively to jobs data released in the morning, sending indexes higher and boosting growth sectors. The unemployment rate dropped more than expected while non-farm payrolls May started to accelerate. The Nasdaq gained +1.47% for the day on lower volume. The high closing range of 91% and green body covering 87% of the candle represent morning gains that turned into a steady hold near intraday highs in the afternoon. There is no lower wick and a small upper wick. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week The short week pivoted primarily on Friday's unemployment data, a key signal for investors of how well the economy is recovering. The Nasdaq declined through the first three days but rallied back on Friday after the data was released. The caution for investors was apparent in the top sector list before and after Friday's upside reversal. Energy led early in the week as oil prices continued to climb to highs not seen since 2018. On Thursday, Consumer Staples and Utilities topped the list, a defensive move for investors to prepare ahead of any disappointment in the employment data on Friday. It also didn't help those fears that the tone changed slightly from the Fed, announcing they'd be selling the bonds and bond ETFs they purchased during the pandemic-driven economic crisis. The purchases were small compared to other monetary policies, but investors view it as just the beginning of more tapering. The employment data on Friday morning was a mix of results against analyst expectations. Unemployment was better than expected. Nonfarm Payrolls was better than April, showing acceleration but less than expected. One interpretation for the data is that it was good enough to show the economic recovery but not so great that the Fed would change monetary policy. The meme stocks were back in the headlines this week, with GameStop (GME), AMC (AMC), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), and Workhorse (WKHS) among stocks that were pumped up by retail investors, forcing gamma squeezes that sent several of them soaring as high as 100% mid-week. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.48% gain for the week. Volume was lower than the previous week. The closing range of 92% was good but is above a long lower wick created in the first part of the week. The index climbed back on Friday to end the week with a thin 5% body, the close for the week just below the open. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed the week near all-time highs. The S&P 500 gained +0.61% for the week, while the Dow Jones gained +0.66%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed the week with a +0.77% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -2.03% for the week. Energy ( XLE ) and Real Estate ( XLRE ) led the sector list for the week, establishing their lead early in the week. Energy got a boost from the rise in oil prices on high demand. Real Estate is gathering momentum from rising housing and rental prices while also being a great hedge against inflation. The focus on employment data released on Friday morning is clear in two pivots. There was a sharp sell-off of most sectors except Consumer Staples ( XLP ) and Utilities ( XLU ) on Thursday ahead of the report. The two sectors are good defensive plays when investors get nervous about how the market may react to news or events. After the report was released, Technology ( XLK ), Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ), and Communications ( XLC ) rallied on Friday. It seems the employment data was good enough to keep a positive outlook, while not so good to drive more fears of tapering by the Fed. Health Care ( XLV ) was the worst-performing sector for the week. The US Treasury 30y, 10y, and 2y yields declined for the week, and the spread between long and short-term yields tightened more. Yields on longer-term treasuries dropped on Friday's economic news. They have been in decline since the huge gains in March. At the time, the accelerating yields and widening spread raised fears in investors and caused a sell-off of big tech and growth stocks. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.09% for the week. The dollar index spiked on Thursday but then returned to the base on Friday following the employment data. Silver (SILVER) declined -0.42%, and Gold (GOLD) declined -0.67%. Both dipped as the dollar rose on Thursday but recovered some of the loss on Friday. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +4.45%, continuing to move toward highs in 2018. Timber (WOOD) declined -1.52%. This is the fourth week of declines. Copper (COPPER1!) declined -3.07%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -1.64%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps The 10-week and 40-week moving average lines are providing support and resistance for the four largest mega-caps. Alphabet (GOOGL) has support at the 10w line, riding above the line for the past four weeks and gaining +1.56% this week. Microsoft (MSFT) is finding resistance at the 10w line for three weeks, gaining +0.44% this week. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are below their 10w lines but getting support at the 40w line. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.03% for the week, while Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.52%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose +5.28% this week as oil prices gained for another week. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) gained +3.32% as the demand for leisure options rises. However, Delta (DAL) and Marriott (MAR) had losses of -3.57% and -1.06%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). There was more volatility in the major cryptocurrencies this past week. Ethereum (ETHUSD) was the biggest gainer with a +12.3% advance. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) volatility continues on random tweets by Elon Musk, gaining +1.2%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) advanced +3% while Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) declined -0.5%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved lower, ending the week at 0.586. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is just to the fear side of neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 82.27, the second week of increases. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday There is not much economic news on the calendar for Monday. Marvell (MRVL) and Vail Resorts (MTN) are the most significant earnings reports for Monday. Tuesday Trade Balance data for April will be released before the market opens on Tuesday. After the market opens, the JOLTS Job Openings report for April will be available. There is a 3-Year Note Auction in the afternoon, and Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be released after the market closes. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. Wednesday Wednesday morning will bring Crude Oil Inventories data after the market opens. In the afternoon, a 10-Year Note Auction may have an impact on interest rates. GameStop (GME), RH (RH), and Lovesac (LOVE) will release earnings on Wednesday. Thursday Economic news on Thursday includes the OPEC Monthly Report early in the morning. Core Consumer Price Index data gets released before the market open. Initial Jobless Claims also gets its weekly update. In the after, the Federal Budget Balance for May will be made available. On Thursday, the only significant earnings report for the daily update is Chewy (CHWY). Friday We'll get the first consumer sentiment and expectations data for June after the market opens on Friday morning. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Unrealized fears have driven much of the choppy market these past several months. First, it was the fear in January of what retail investors and meme stocks might do to damage confidence in equity markets. But after a brief and slight dip in January, the fear of missing out drove significant gains in the first half of February. In early March, we saw the wild climb of treasury yields and steepened yield curve, destabilizing the bond market and providing no safe hedge for investors. Everyone was shouting Yield Curve Control, and in early March, we saw the first significant drop in equities. But the yields stopped climbing, and bonds found stability. Then it was the fear of out-of-control inflation and the potential action from the Fed. Any good economic news was met with a quick sell-off of growth stocks as the Fed tapering was sure to come at any moment. That never happened, but it didn't stop investors from selling off growth in May. So here we found ourselves this week, with fear of surprise employment data. Honestly, I heard all week investors were concerned about the data, but I never knew if they were worried it would be too good or too bad. But the data came, and the fears slid away as investors moved back into growth stocks, albeit on lower volume. Following such a fantastic year in 2020, with the quick recovery from March lows and great returns for almost any investment, it's no wonder investors are waiting for the big correction. But there are plenty of indications that there is still upside in growth stocks. First, much of the rotation has been into cyclical sectors in recent months, including Industrials and Materials. The rotation was to recovering industries that were impacted by the pandemic. It was also to stocks expected to benefit from spending in Biden's infrastructure plans. nIt's clear that the infrastructure plans will need to be scaled back to get agreement across the aisle, and the capital gains tax seems to have quite a bit of resistance as well. Inflation fears have also been a considerable headwind for growth stocks, with commodity prices soaring ahead of price index data. However, we finally see a downward trend with commodity prices (not including oil). Wood, copper, and aluminum that are part of this update are all trending downward. Those dropping prices should begin showing up in the producer and consumer price index data soon. Finally, long-term treasury yields continue to slowly but surely come down, and the yield curve is flattening. The US Dollar dropped back to the level we saw at the beginning of the year. Both the low-interest rates and the weakened US Dollar can be supportive for big tech and growth stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side There is still plenty that can change to induce more fear in investors. The G7 agreed to a minimum global tax of 15% to reduce multinationals' ability to steer profits toward low-tax countries to avoid taxes in their home country. It's not clear yet what the real impact will be for big tech and growth companies. New consumer price index data this week may be enough to stir up inflation fears again. After the Fed decided to sell off bond purchases last week, investors will be watching very closely for any further change in tone. The market wants to price in any monetary policy changes before they become real. Fear after fear has come and gone this year without any realization of what was feared. But at some point, one of these fears may just come true and give the market the anticipated correction. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq dipped below the 21d EMA and 50d MA this week but quickly recovered to close above the key moving averages. By the end of the week, the index was back above 13,800, where it started the week. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was 13,836.17. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,072 by the end of the week. The all-time high is at 14,211.57. On the downside, there are a few key levels: There is a support area at 13,600 - 13,700. The 10d MA is at 13,693.41. The key moving averages are lined up close to each other. The 50d MA is at 13,654.08. The 21d EMA is at 13,639.43. The low of this past week is 13,548.93. There is a support area at 13,000. 12,786.81 is a low pivot point from the late March dip. Stay above this low to keep an upward trend since early March. 12,612.16 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Employment data on Friday breathed new life into big tech, growth stocks, and the Nasdaq. However, the gains were on lower volume, so we'll need to wait until Monday to find out if there is any follow-through on higher volume. With the G7 global tax agreement over the weekend, some initial reactions could keep investors modest to start the week. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 6/4Summary: The market responded positively to jobs data released in the morning, sending indexes higher and boosting growth sectors. The unemployment rate dropped more than expected while non-farm payrolls May started to accelerate. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 4, 2021 Facts: +1.47%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 87% Good: Held morning gains throughout day for a higher high and higher low Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny upper wick, no lower wick, small gap up Advanced/Decline: 1.04, About the same number of advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.88%), DJI (+0.52%), RUT (+0.31%), VIX (-8.87%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.92%) and Communications (XLC +1.43%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.09%) and Utilities (XLU -0.15%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market responded positively to jobs data released in the morning, sending indexes higher and boosting growth sectors. The unemployment rate dropped more than expected while non-farm payrolls May started to accelerate. The Nasdaq gained +1.47% for the day on lower volume. The high closing range of 91% and green body covering 87% of the candle represent morning gains that turned into a steady hold near intraday highs in the afternoon. There is no lower wick and a small upper wick. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) is nearing all-time highs again with a +0.88% gain today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.52%. Small caps did not do quite as well, but the Russell 2000 (RUT) still had a +0.31% advance. The VIX volatility index declined -8.87% to its lowest close since April. Growth sectors soared back to the top of the list today. Technology (XLK +1.92%) and Communications (XLC +1.43%) were top, outperforming the broader S&P 500 index. Defensive sectors, including Real Estate (XLRE +0.09%) and Utilities (XLU -0.15%), moved to the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.39%, retracing from yesterday's big gain. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined. The spread tightened considerably between long-term and short-term bonds. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced after yesterday's decline, reacting again to the dollar. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced again, continuing to set new highs not seen since 2018. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -5.95%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -5.79%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.586. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is just to the fear side of neutral. The NAAIM investment manager exposure index is 82.27. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) gained +2.07%, cruising back above both its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +1.96%, trading above its key moving average lines. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.90% but hit resistance at its 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.60% but is still well below the moving average lines. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce.com (CRM), and ASML Holding (ASML) topped the mega-cap list today. Only a handful of mega-caps declined for the day, including Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Nike (NKE), Home Depot (HD), and United Health (UNH) Most of the stocks in the daily update growth list gained for the day. Ehang Holdings (EH) gained nearly 20%. MongoDB (MDB) gained over 15% after an earnings surprise for the first quarter. UP Fintech (TIGR) and Sumo Digital (SUMO) were the other two in the top four. At the bottom of the list was Crowdstrike (CRWD), which disappointed investors with earnings. Also declining for the day were Lemonade (LMND), Etsy (ETSY), and Fastly (FSLY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news on the calendar for Monday. Marvell (MRVL) and Vail Resorts (MTN) are the most significant earnings reports for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose back above the moving average lines and the 13,700 area today. The one-day trend-line and the trend-line from the low on 5/13 both point to a +0.61% on Monday. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a -0.79%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We waited all week for the labor market data, with investors getting skittish yesterday with anticipation. The response to the new numbers was positive and brought the index back to nearly where we began the week. Hopefully, the exuberance will continue into next week, and we can start moving toward new highs. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321