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Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Daily Market Update for 4/23Summary: Very strong economic data sent the markets higher on Friday as investors shook off the capital gains worries. Small caps took the lead for another session as gains were shared broadly across segments and sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 23, 2021 Facts: +1.44%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 75% Good: Now lower wick, strong buying all morning Bad: Slight dip into close as the weekend arrives Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a longer upper wick from the dip at close Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.09%), DJI (+0.67%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-7.38%) Sectors: Financial (XLF +1.87%) and Materials (XLB +1.64%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.26%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Very strong economic data sent the markets higher on Friday as investors shook off the capital gains worries. Small caps took the lead for another session as gains were shared broadly across segments and sectors. The Nasdaq gained +1.44% on lower volume than yesterday, but higher volume than earlier in the week. The 75% body is above a very tiny lower wick. The closing range of 78% is just below a longer upper wick that formed in the last 30 minutes of the session from selling into the weekend. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes for a third day, bucking the trend of lower performance the last few weeks. It gained +1.76% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a +1.09% advance while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed up +0.67%. The VIX volatility index retreated -7.38%. Financial (XLF +1.87%) and Materials (XLB +1.64%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.26%) were the only sectors with declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.49%. The sharp decline came as treasury bonds sold off. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. The commodities advance are after surprisingly strong economic data following a great jobs report yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call rose to 0.651. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward the greed side, but not at extreme greed. The NAAIM money manager exposure index remains about the same as last week at 95.6. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four biggest mega-caps gained today. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +2.10%, closing at a new all-time high. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.80%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +1.55%. Amazon (AMZN) held onto a +0.96% despite fading later in the session. ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA) and Bank of America (BAC) led the mega-caps for the day, all with more than 2% gains. Intel (INTC), Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble) and Pepsico (PEP) were at the bottom of the list. Almost every stock in the daily update growth list had gains for the day. UP Fintech (TIGR) led the list with a +14.18% gain. Cloudflare (NET), SNAP (SNAP) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) round out the top four. MongoDb (MDB), Peloton (PTON) and Beyond Meat (BYND) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will kick-off the week with Core Durable Goods orders data for March. The data is a leading indicator showing increased manufacturing data to respond to higher consumer demand. The frequency of earnings reports will really start to pick up next week. Kicking off on Monday will be reports from Tesla (TSLA), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Canon (CAJ), Albertsons (ACI). Investors will be watching all earnings reports closely to measure sector performance in the economic recovery. Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to get back above the 14,000 area and hold that line even with the dip at close. The one-day trend line points to a +1.40% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +0.35% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -0.23% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The worries about higher capital gains tax was short lived. Biden has always said he would raise taxes and so those worries were likely already priced in. Today's rally easily erased yesterday's downward reversal from the sell the news event. The economic data this morning included higher Services and Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales data that exceeded even high expectations. Add that to the positive jobs data yesterday and it was enough to excite investors over the strong economy today. Still, investors will watch earnings reports closely next week to see what sectors are performing best in the recovery. Not only will earnings be compared to last year's pandemic numbers, but guidance for the next quarter and year will be watch closely. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/22Summary: The day started by honoring the expectation we had of a move higher, but a mid-day reversal busted that expectation, erasing the gains and sending prices plummeting. The reason was obvious. News broke that Biden would propose a huge increase in capital gains tax. So we'll look closely at the impact and what we might expect from here. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 22, 2021 Facts: -0.94%, Volume higher, Closing range: 19%, Body: 55% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Mid-day reversal on high volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Reversal candle, gap up with long upper wick, turning into a lower close Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.92%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-0.31%), VIX (+6.91%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -0.43%) and Health (XLV -0.45%) were top. Technology (XLK -1.17%) and Materials (XLB -1.69%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The day started by honoring the expectation we had of a move higher, but a mid-day reversal busted that expectation, erasing the gains and sending prices plummeting. The reason was obvious. News broke that Biden would propose a huge increase in capital gains tax. So we'll look closely at the impact and what we might expect from here. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.94% decline on higher volume. The higher volume distribution starting at the 1pm news alert. The 94% red body is below a longer upper wick that formed from the morning rally before the news. The closing range is 19% and shows some recovery from the initial selling of the news. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied 1.25% in the morning before downturn. It ended the day with a -0.31% loss, fairing the best among the major indexes. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.92% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.94%, both giving up most of yesterday's gains. The VIX volatility index rose +6.91%. There was a sharp change in the sector performance list at the news. All sectors lost gains in the morning and ended the day with a loss. Growth sectors moved to the bottom along with Materials (XLB -1.69%) which has been outperforming the other sectors recently. Real Estate (XLRE -0.43%) and Health (XLV -0.45%) were top sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -1.17%) and Materials (XLB -1.69%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.18%. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined for another day. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call rose to 0.639. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is leaning toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.58%, Microsoft (MSFT) was down -1.31%, Apple (AAPL) declined -1.17% and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.13%. They all still trade above the 21d EMA and bases are intact. AT&T (T) gained +4.15% after a great earnings report and didn't seem impacted by the afternoon swing (although it did close off intraday highs after morning profit taking). Abbot Labs (ABT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Mastercard (MA) were also at the top of the mega-cap list, but all with under 1% gains. Most mega-caps declined for the day with high-growth names such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) taking the worst hits. The growth stock list was not terribly impacted by the afternoon sell-off. About half of the daily update list closed the day with gains. Solar Edge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH) topped the list with 7.69% and 3.74% gains. Crowdstrike (CRWD) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) also ended the day near the top of the list. At the bottom of the list were Draft Kings (DKNG), PENN Gaming (PENN), Grow Generation (GRWG) and Twitter (TWTR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be released. The data is an indicator for economic activity the respective sectors. New Home Sales data will also be released in the morning. Friday will close the week with earnings reports from Honeywell (HON) and American Express (AXP). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index popped above 14,000 in the morning before the afternoon downside reversal. It seemed to find support at around 13,800. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +1.50% gain for Friday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.14% decline. If today's one-day trend continues, it would mean a -1.37% loss for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The news that Biden may raise the capital gains tax was enough to send the market into a short panic today. Although the tax would be a ways off, it's likely investors would take gains in the current year under the current tax rules rather than wait for later years. That sell-off at the end of year is what the market will look to price in now. You saw it show up in the hit to growth sectors and high growth stocks, especially stocks that have big gains over the past year. But there's a good possibility that the market just overreacted today to some disappointing news. A good amount of money that is in the market is protected from tax since it comes in from retirement plans and passive indexes. To what degree that's true is what we'll find out as Biden's proposal makes it through the hurdles in its way and the market prices in the impact. The news was enough to bust our expectation for Higher today and rethink where things might head for tomorrow. Based on the candlesticks, we have to observe the a downside reversal and expectation for lower tomorrow. But the higher high and higher low opens up the possibility for sideways. Sideways or lower. Certainly, we'd welcome another expectation breaker and move higher tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/21Summary: The gains were broad across segments and sectors today, pivoting the indexes to the upside after a few days of declines. The only thing that was missing is higher volume that would indicate more institutional support in the gains. We'll take what we got for now and then keep a close eye in the days to come. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 21, 2021 Facts: +1.19%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 84% Good: Test of 21d EMA in morning then buying throughout the day, rally into close Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long green body with no upper wick, small lower wick Advance/Decline: Five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.93%), DJI (+0.93%), RUT (+2.35%), VIX (-6.32%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.82%) and Financials (XLF +1.39%) were the top sectors. Communications (XLC +0.17%) and Utilities (-0.84%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The gains were broad across segments and sectors today, pivoting the indexes to the upside after a few days of declines. The only thing that was missing is higher volume that would indicate more institutional support in the gains. We'll take what we got for now and then keep a close eye in the days to come. The Nasdaq finally had the advance/decline ratio above 1.0 after eight sessions in a row of more decliners than advancers. Along with great support from mega-caps, the index closed with a +1.19% gain and a closing range of 100%. The 84% green body is above a small lower wick formed from a dip at open. Otherwise, the bulls led the index higher through the whole day. There were over 5 advancing stocks for every 2 declining stocks. In a signal of rotation back into small-caps, the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other major indexes after underperforming for several sessions. But the rotation did not suck the wind out of the other segments, allowing gains to be broadly shared. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) both had gains of +0.93%. The VIX volatility index declined -6.32% after two days of big advances. Cyclical sectors topped to the sector list for the day, but did not leave behind growth sectors. Materials (XLB +1.82%) and Financials (XLF +1.39%) were the top sectors. Utilities (-0.84%) was the only sector to decline, reversing the defensive trades of the previous two days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.10% and may be in the early part of a base at the current level. The US 30y treasury bond and the US 10y note yields remained about even. The 2y treasury note yields rose slightly. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Commodities were mostly bullish for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined on higher than expected crude oil supply numbers. Timber (WOOD) declines but is still near extraordinary highs. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call dropped to 0.548. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is leaning toward the green side, but not near extreme. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps certainly helped with the gains today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.90% and +0.82%. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.29%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.03% but found support late in the session after a morning decline. ASML Holding (ASML) and Roche Holding (RHHBF) topped the mega-cap list with +6.25% and +4.64%. I don't usually include Roche in the daily update as its traded in OTC, but the earnings surprises of these two giants influenced European markets and likewise influenced sentiment in the US major indexes. Tesla (TSLA) and Nike (NKE) round out the top four mega-caps. There were more winners than losers in the mega-caps. Netflix (NFLX) dropped -7.40% after disappointing investors with subscriber growth. Oracle (ORCL) declined -3.26% because of a lost cloud deal with the Israel government. There wasn't much to complain about among growth stocks either. Lemonade (LMND) was the top winner with a +10.83% gain. Moderna (MRNA), GrowGeneration (GRWG), DraftKings (DKNG) also topped the list with over 5% gains. At the bottom of the list were communications stocks Facebook (FB) and SNAP (SNAP) with -0.39% and -0.32% declines. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) continued to decline, losing -2.64%, after announcing a secondary offer two days ago. Peloton is struggling with the fallout from reports and investigations of treadmill injuries and one death, declined -6.17% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will bring an update to Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home sales. Earnings updates will include Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), Snap (SNAP), and DR Horton (DHI). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index found support at the 13,700 area again today, before rallying the rest of the day and closing just below 14,000. If today's trend continues, the one-day trend line points to a +0.90% gain for tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +0.31% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -1.53% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We've been watching the advance/decline ratio over that past week and a half, looking for a day where the advancing stocks outnumbered the declining stocks. Now that we have the signal, the attention turns to volume. Volume declined over the last three sessions, including a large decline today as the index pivoted upward. Ideally we will see everything come together in the next session. A move higher, with broadly shared gains, on higher volume. The expectation is set for Higher. If the index moves lower, that will be a signal the last few weeks rally is losing support. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 4/20Summary: The market continued to pull back for another day as investors begin to absorb more earnings reports. Those results and the guidance not only impact to their respective stock prices but also indicate what parts of the economy are recovering faster or slower. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 20, 2021 Facts: -0.92%, Volume lower, Closing range: 38%, Body: 47% Good: Support at 21d EMA and 13,700 area Bad: Closing range from morning sell-off Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: Almost five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.68%), DJI (-0.75%), RUT (-1.96%), VIX (+8.00%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.27%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.11%) were the top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.87%) and Energy (XLE -2.65%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market continued to pull back for another day as investors begin to absorb more earnings reports. Those results and the guidance not only impact to their respective stock prices but also indicate what parts of the economy are recovering faster or slower. The Nasdaq closed down -0.92% on lower volume with a closing range of 38%. That closing range came after heavy morning selling, a bounce off the 21d EMA and a few tests of the 13,700 area. The index find support there and rallied a bit into close to finish with a thick red 47% red body over a longer lower wick. There were almost five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the losses for the major indexes with a -1.96% decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.68% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.75%. The VIX volatility index gained another +6.40%. Utilities (XLU +1.27%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.11%) were the top sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.55%) and Health Services (XLV +0.39%) were the only other gaining sectors. Financials (XLF -1.87%) and Energy (XLE -2.65%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.13%. The US 30y treasury bond and the US 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for the day. The yield curve continues to flatten. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) was flat while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined on news that demand would retreat later in the year. Copper (COPPER1!) was flat while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio remained at 0.679. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the greed side, despite the pullbacks in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) lost -1.28%, Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.11%, Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.47%, and Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.19%. All bases are still intact and these mega-caps are trading well above their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) topped the mega-cap list with UnitedHealth (UNH), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Walmart (WMT) filling out the top four mega-cap performers. At the bottom of the list are Nike (NKE), Abbott Labs (ABT), Bank of America (BAC) and Walt Disney (DIS). It was another tough day for growth stocks with only a handful in the daily update list advancing for the day. Enphase (ENPH) climbed 4.15% after getting analyst upgrades today. Other top growth stock gainers were Tesla (TSLA), NIO (NIO) and Facebook (FB), but the gains were not huge. FUTU (FUTU) followed up yesterday's big gain with a huge loss of -23.43% after the company announced a secondary issue of stock. UP Fintech (TIGR) also lost -14.10% for the day. SUMO Logic (SUMO) and DataDog (DDOG) were other growth stock losers for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday, additional crude oil inventory data will be released in the morning. A 20y treasury bond auction will happen in the afternoon. On Wednesday, Roche Holding (RHBY), Verizon (VZ), Chipotle (CMG) will release earnings updates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index found support at the 13,700 area today and ended with a short rally. The index is in the lower half of the regression trend channel from the 3/5 low. The midline points to +1.39% gain, just below 14,000. The five-day trend line points to a -0.03% sideways move. The one-day trend line points to a -1.31% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We've gone eight days on the Nasdaq where there are more declining stocks than advancing stocks. It's clear the influence is still in the mega-caps. They are extended after a couple weeks of big gains, and may take some more time to form second stage bases and move up again. More broadly, there is no indication that investor sentiment will change and end the pullback in small caps and growth stocks. Perhaps some earnings reports or economic news later this week can help (or hurt). For many of the growth stocks I follow, it doesn't feel they could go much lower. But then again, it didn't feel they could go any lower last week either. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - April 20Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Like". Have a good day. ---------------------------------- We'll have to see if we can climb above the 3379.09 point for support. If it falls, we need to make sure it is supported at 3294.62. If it does not fall below the downtrend line, it is expected to continue the uptrend. Accordingly, it remains to be seen if volatility around April 20 (April 19-21) could lead to further gains. The interval between 3008.91-3294.62 is the box interval, so if you fall at 3294.62, you need a short stop loss. --------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (34200.7-34182.4) and closed at -0.36%. ----------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the fall of the gap (14052.34-13984.58) and closed at -0.98%. -------------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (4185.5-4179.8) and closed at -0.53%. ------------------------------ (XAUUSD 1D chart) You should watch for any movement that deviates from 1727.175-1794.981. In particular, we need to see if we can climb along the uptrend line and get out of the downtrend line. ------------------------------------ (USOIL 1D chart) You should watch for any movement that deviates from 60.25-66.26. In particular, we have to see if we can get resistance and decline at the downtrend line. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, it's important to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for the sake of convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the conventional stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator that oh92 disclosed. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Market price at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
Daily Market Update for 4/19Summary: After closing last week at record highs, it's reasonable that the equity markets pull back a bit before advancing again. That pull back came abruptly as the session opened in the morning but the markets found some support heading into the afternoon. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 19, 2021 Facts: -0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 36%, Body: 35% Good: Afternoon support after hitting 13,850 Bad: Lower high, lower low, back below 14,000 line Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Body in the middle of candle, about equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.53%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (-1.36%), VIX (+6.40%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) and Health (XLV +0.02%) were only gaining sectors. Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After closing last week at record highs, it's reasonable that the equity markets pull back a bit before advancing again. That pull back came abruptly as the session opened in the morning but the markets found some support heading into the afternoon. The Nasdaq declined -0.98% on lower volume for the day. The upper wick formed in the first 15 minutes of trading, The declines came mostly in the morning, forming the lower wick. The candle finished the day with a 36% closing range at the bottom of a red 35% body in the center of the candle. There were almost 4 declining stocks for every one advancing stock on a day of lower highs and lower lows. All four major indexes tracked in the daily update declined for the day with the small cap Russell 2000 (RUT) having the worst performance, losing -1.36% and dropping back to the bottom of a two week base. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.53%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.36%. The VIX volatility index dropped another +6.40%. Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) and Health (XLV +0.02%) were only gaining sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.12%) were bottom. Communications (XLC -0.56%) joined the latter two as the three sectors that underperformed the S&P 500 index. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues its downward trend with a -0.58% decline today. The US 30y treasury bond and the US 10y treasury note yield advanced while the 2y note yield declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) remained about flat after Friday's huge gain. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day higher at 0.679. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the greed side, despite the pullbacks in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both gained for the day while Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) declined. They all are still trading within a forming base after multiple weeks of gains. Moving average lines look good and they seem to be building support for a move higher. Netflix (NFLX) topped the mega-cap list ahead of tomorrow's earnings release. Pfizer (PFE), Coca-Cola (KO) and Apple (AAPL) round out the top four. At the bottom of the list are ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA). That majority of mega-caps declined for the day. The same was true for growth stocks, with most in the daily update list declining. Top gainers included FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR), NIO (NIO) and RH (RH). Those names look familiar as I noted they swung between the top and the bottom of the list on a daily basis last week. At the bottom of the growth list today are Chewy (CHWY), PENN National gaming (PENN), Peloton (PTON), and Ehang Holdings (EH), all with more than 6% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday's economic calendar is light. The API weekly crude oil stock update will come at market close. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) will both release earnings on Tuesday. They will be joined by Netflix (NFLX), Abbot Labs (ABT), Philip Morris (PM) and Lockheed Martin (LMT). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dropped back below the 14,000 line. We want to see it get back above that point and stay above it to work toward new all-time highs. The five-day trend line points to a +0.76% gain, above 14,000. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to +0.40% gain, just below 14,000. The one-day trend line points to a -0.88% decline, if today's selling continues. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The pullback today shouldn't be a huge surprise as the mega-caps and the major indexes are making big weekly gains and investors are likely wanting to protect some profits. There has not been broad support across the index with the advance/decline line remaining under 1.0 for a seventh session in a row. Some of this could also be from jitters in the market that some of the crazy retail volatility is still lurking. You can see this from the Dogecoin frenzy over the weekend. Stocks like AMC and GME still continue to hold high valuations compared to where analysts would price them, but other popular stocks with retail investors are losing steam. As retail investors tire of losses, they'll add to the selling. Looking forward, I would think we'd still see some sideways movement or even more pullback. To really see the index reach new highs, we'll need more juice from the mega-caps and also more broadly shared advances across segments. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Market Week in Review - 4/12/2021 - 4/16/2021Summary: There are some interesting questions to answer this week. How much of the economic recovery is already priced into the equity markets? Are investors done with the value trade and moving back to growth, or does value still have more gains ahead? Does the market really see inflation as a threat or is it just necessary and transitionary in the current cycle? Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 12, 2021 Facts: -0.36%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: -5% Good: Higher low than previous day, high closing range Bad: Distribution day, lower high, loss on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, thin red body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Almost three declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (-0.16%), VIX (+1.32%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.59%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.48%) and Energy (XLE -0.79%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower After several days of big gains, its ok for the markets to take a pause. Morning selling turned into buying as treasury auctions showed little trouble and yields remained under control. But the confidence wasn't enough to hold the indexes near intraday highs as investors turned their attention to inflation data becoming available Tuesday morning. The Nasdaq closed the session with a -0.36% decline on higher volume, marking a distribution day for the index. The thin red body of 5% represents indecision between the good news on treasury auctions, but the potential for bad news in inflation data. The positive is that the body is in the upper half of the candle with a high closing range of 71%, showing a slightly more bullishness in the market. There were 3 declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 13, 2021 Facts: +1.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 86%, Body: 89% (w/gap) Good: Higher high, higher low, large green body and high closing range Bad: Small dip at end of day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body under a small upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: Three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.33%), DJI (-0.20%), RUT (-0.22%), VIX (-1.54%) Sectors: Utilities (+1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.06%) were top. Consumer Staples (-0.53%) and Finance (-0.33%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Bigger than expected inflation didn't hold back the markets from setting new records today. The S&P 500 set another new record close while the Nasdaq inches toward key support levels. The gains were driven mostly by large mega-caps and not shared broadly across the indexes. The Nasdaq advanced +1.05% for the day and closed just below the 14,000 resistance line. The candle has no lower wick as the intraday low was set at the opening bell. The thick green 86% body led the index to a 89% closing range (including the gap) with the intraday high being set late in the afternoon. The advance was driven by larger cap stocks, as there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 14, 2021 Facts: -0.99%, Volume lower, Closing range: 10%, Body: 75% Good: Higher high, pullback is on lower volume Bad: Selling almost entire day, couldn't hold above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, candle is mostly body with a longer upper wick from a rally at open Advance/Decline: Slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.41%), DJI (+0.16%), RUT (+0.84%), VIX (+2.04%) Sectors: Energy (+2.78%) and Materials (+0.72%) were top. Communications (-1.03%) and Technology (XLK -1.06%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The cyclicals moved back to the top of the sector list as investors were motivated by positive import/export data and crude oil inventories. The data provided a good reason for investors to rotate back into the cyclical sectors after chasing gains in big tech over the past few weeks. The Nasdaq pulled back from recent gains, closing the day with a -0.99% decline on lower volume. The 75% red body represents a day for the bears that ended in a 10% closing range. The index set a higher high in the morning but ended the day with a lower low, providing an outside bearish candle. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 15, 2021 Facts: +1.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 87%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, higher low, close above 14,000 Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly body with about equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.11%), DJI (+0.90%), RUT (+0.42%), VIX (-2.47%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.90%) and Technology (XLK +1.72%) were top. Financial (XLF -0.09%) and Energy (XLE -0.81%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Positive economic data gave a kick in the right direction to equity markets, allowing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average to close again at all-time highs. The day was owned by the bulls with just a few pullbacks, but still the gains were not felt by everyone, with more stocks declining than advancing. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.31% gain on higher volume. The candle, made up of mostly a green body, has a closing range of 87% about even upper and lower wicks. A higher high and higher low provides direction to the previous days outside range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 16, 2021 Facts: +0.10%, Volume higher, Closing range: 88%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high after early selling turns to late buying Bad: Red body, morning sell-off, slight dip at end of session Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long lower wick with a thin body at the top of the candle Advance/Decline: More than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (+0.48%), RUT (+0.25%), VIX (-1.93%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.21%), Utilities (XLU +0.81%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.07%) and Energy (XLE -0.80%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The indexes set more records on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs again. That gains initially came at open after positive building data drove the materials sector to the top of the sector list. It was not a straight line. The market dipped in the morning and the indexes needed to climb back to close near intraday highs. The Nasdaq closed with +0.10%, above yesterday's close but slightly below the opening price. The bears took over shortly after open, bringing the index nearly to yesterday's low. But the bulls fought back and bought it back to make an intraday high before dipping into close. The long lower wick was formed in the morning selling. The thin 8% body is at the top of the candle which has an 88% closing range. There were more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) There are some interesting questions to answer this week. How much of the economic recovery is already priced into the equity markets? Are investors done with the value trade and moving back to growth, or does value still have more gains ahead? Does the market really see inflation as a threat or is it just necessary and transitionary in the current cycle? Coming into the week, investors showed caution as they waited for two things. Tuesday's consumer price index data would provide a look at how high inflation moved in March. Second would be the earnings reports for big finance, starting on Wednesday. That caution brought an indecisive candle on Monday, a fight between bulls and bears, creating a thin body where the close was just below the mornings open. The consumer price index data did come in higher than expected on Tuesday. But it seemed the equity markets had already priced in the fear of higher inflation. The numbers had a different consequence. The US Dollar weakened. The weaker US dollar was a boost for multinational mega-caps, amidst the caution in the market. It was interesting to see Utilities top the sector list, signaling caution, while still Consumer Discretionary and Technology came in second and third, helping advance the Nasdaq for the day. After more than a week of strong gains with the largest mega-caps, we were due a pullback as investors take profits and turn to other opportunities. That happened on Wednesday. The mega-caps all dipped, taking the Nasdaq down for the day. Investors turned back to the cyclicals for new opportunities, especially in the Financial sector after positive reports from big banks in the morning. Import/Export data was good, Crude Oil Inventories good, demand for Chinese exports soared. It all showed economic activity accelerating. Perfect for cyclicals. Yet, the enthusiasm for cyclicals was short lived. Thursday was back to big tech and growth stocks with the Financial and Energy sector moving back to the bottom of the sector list. And that Growth vs Value is a theme for the week that's worth more exploring. The sure winner for the week, without much to question, was the Materials sector and the commodities behind it. All data from retail sales, China exports to the huge building permits and housing starts data on Friday, are driving commodity prices higher and boosting the Materials sector. For big tech and Nasdaq, Friday was another indecisive day while the other major indexes hit all-time highs. But the curious thing for the week was how the Nasdaq put in higher highs all week while never seeing the advance/decline ratio move about 1.0. It hasn't been above 1.0 for the past six trading sessions. What was happening? You can see what was happening by looking at the top and bottom lists for mega-caps and growth stocks throughout the week. You'll see the same names show up in the top list one day and the bottom list the next. Nvidia (NVDA) is a great example, going back and forth between top and bottom mover. Chinese stocks FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) had the opposite days from Nvidia. So the advancing stocks one day exchanged places with the declining stocks the next day. That constant rotation within the index kept the advance/decline line below 1.0 while the mega-caps continued to push higher highs though the week. But by the end of the week, the rotations didn't prevent a broad set of stocks moving upward. Looking at the QQQ (weighted) index vs the QQQE (equal weight) index, the gains for the week are a bit more for the weighted index, but not that much higher. So despite rotation, that may have left some investors dazed, eventually the gains were shared broadly on a weekly basis. Another way to view the rotation within the week is the back and forth between value and growth stocks. The last two weeks, investors moved back into growth stocks, clearly seen in the ratio of gains between growth and value stocks. However this week, the rise of growth relative to value stocks paused and went back and forth as it appeared investors weren't sure which was the right play moving forward. The Nasdaq advanced +1.09% for the week. The closing range of 96% marks the third week in a row of a closing range above 95%. Volume was higher. The higher and higher low is also a three week trend. The key level we needed to pass this week was 14,000. The index topped it twice and retreated but then closed above on Thursday. One more test on Friday, confirmed the resistance level turned to a support area and the index closed the week above the line on its way to a new all-time high. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) both set new all-time highs for another week. The S&P 500 gained +1.37% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial average gained +1.18%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.86%, completing a three-weeks tight pattern where the index closes within a tight range each week. Small caps are still searching for their spot in the current rally. The VIX volatility index continues lower with a -2.64% decline this week. Utilities ( XLU ) is surprisingly the top sector for the week. Topping the list on Tuesday and nearing the top of the list on Friday the sector had steady gains throughout the week. The sector is usually a defensive move for investors. Perhaps investors nervousness grew as the S&P 500 has been setting new all-time highs. Less of a surprise is to see Materials ( XLB ) at the top of the weekly list. The sector is benefiting not only from investments on infrastructure being discussed in Washington, but also a strong housing sector and a surge in building permits. Energy ( XLE ) had a choppy week, taking the lead on Wednesday, but quickly fading to near the bottom of the list for the weekly. Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) also had some good days this week, advancing on news of strong retail sales and an advance in consumer credit showing increased spending. The worst performing sector this week was Communications ( XLC ). There have been some reports of decelerating spending on Internet media and social platforms from retailers. That makes sense as demand is naturally increasing and requires less effort for omnichannel marketing to bring in consumers. For the US Treasury yields, note the spread shown in the top of the chart. The green line is the difference between the US 10y and 2y yields. It's been flattening since the panic in March where the performance of equities was so tightly attached to the longer term treasury note yields. The US 30y bond and 10y note yields both declined for the week while the 2y note yields rose, helping narrow the spread between long term and short term yields. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the week. s3.tradingview.com The US Dollar (DXY) retreated -0.70% erasing all the gains during March and giving a boost to multinational companies that can benefit from a weakened US dollar. All commodities, in the six tracked by this update, rose for the week, showing the high demand while economic activity continues to increase. Timber (WOOD) is all time highs. COPPER (COPPER1!) is at its highest since at least 2015. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps The four big mega-caps completed a third week of gains, helping drive the index and their respective sectors higher. Microsoft (MSFT) had the biggest weekly gain, advancing +1.91%. Apple (AAPL) advanced +0.88%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.53%. All of these three have 10w moving average lines above the 40w moving average line. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +0.81% for the week and is trying to keep the 10w MA above the 40w MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was able to finish the week with a +1.41% gain despite the Energy sector not faring well. Marriott (MAR) had a small gain of +0.10% gain. However, Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) and Delta Airlines (DAL) lost -7.75% and -5.34% for the week as new waves of the pandemic outside of the US brought in new fears of impact to the travel and leisure sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) closed the week 0.567. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back and forth around neutral but ended the week on the greed side. The NAAIM exposure index rose to 96.57. Money managers continue to increase exposure in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Economic news on Monday will start off light with just a few short-term treasury bill auctions scheduled. They likely won't have much influence over yield concerns. Tuesday also will be light. The API weekly crude oil stock update will come at market close. Wednesday, additional crude oil inventory data will be released in the morning. A 20y treasury bond auction will happen in the afternoon. Thursday will bring an update to Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home sales. On Friday the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be released. The data is an indicator for economic activity the respective sectors. New Home Sales data will also be released in the morning. Coca-Cola (KO) will kick-off the week with a premarket earnings release on Monday. After market close, IBM (IBM), United Airlines (UAL), and Steel Dynamics (STLD) could be important earnings reports to watch. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) will both release earnings on Tuesday. They will be joined by Netflix (NFLX), Abbot Labs (ABT), Philip Morris (PM) and Lockheed Martin (LMT). On Wednesday, Roche Holding (RHBY), Verizon (VZ), Chipotle (CMG) will release updates. Thursday's earnings updates will include Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), Snap (SNAP), and DR Horton (DHI). Friday will close the week with earnings reports from Honeywell (HON) and American Express (AXP). Earnings reports for the first quarter of the year are starting to pick up and this isn't meant to be an exhaustive list. Check your own portfolio for earnings dates so you aren't surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial continue to set records with all-time high closes. One could see that as the potential for a pullback in the markets, but it could also be time for the tech and small-caps to have their turn and bring the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 up to all-time highs as well. Inflation numbers are out in the open and investors didn't run from equity markets. Rather the impact to the US dollar showed there is some silver lining in the higher inflation number, that multinational companies can benefit from a weaker dollar under higher inflation. It also shows investors are taking some heed from the Fed that higher inflation doesn't necessarily mean higher interest rates. Considering the mixed reaction to inflation, then one must be excited about the accelerating performance of the economy. You would be hard pressed to find a time when the economy grew at pace like it is now and the equity markets didn't advance at some level. There is much to be positive about, from the flattening yield curve, to good earnings reports over the past week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Sure, there are positive gains in the market, but the gains are limited to a few players that are over extended or built on thin bases. Although mega-caps have carried the indexes higher, the big companies are now extended and ripe for a pullback. The action for their counterparts in mid-cap growth stocks are all over the place without strong price action to support expectation for further gains. Many popular small-caps seem to be on a downward spiral with no bottom in site. Big finance earnings reports this past week were strong, thanks to improving yields in long term treasuries that impact results for big banks. Financial institutions have also benefited from the huge rise in investment activity in the first quarter. But how will earnings reports outside of the Financial sector look in the coming weeks. More importantly, what will be the outlook set for big tech and growth stocks as they face the post-pandemic recovery? Those could be in for a shock to investors compared to the tail winds of 2020. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch This week we will be watching for a new all-time high for the Nasdaq. Will it come this week, or is one more pullback necessary before the milestone? On the positive side, the levels are: 14,062.50 is the high of this week. That will be the first price to beat this week. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. 14,564 is the middle line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index has been below the midline for the past eight weeks. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The low of this past week is 13,783.95. Let's get a higher low for next week. The 10d MA is at 13,861.74. The index has done well to stay above this line during power trends. The 21d exponential moving average is at 13,639.66. The 21d EMA is now above the 50d MA, a good confirmation of an uptrend. The 50d moving average is at 13,507.28. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,192 for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's really one thing I'm watching for next week from a macro perspective. Will the advance/decline ratio rise above 1.0? When will there be a broader rally vs growth limited to the mega-caps while everything else rotates? That broader rally will mean there is enough shake out in equities that now investors are starting to set solid bets in the market vs chasing swings. As for the individual investor, the most important price action is the one in your portfolio. Looking past the daily charts, how are your stocks performing on a weekly basis? The day-to-day swings don't matter as much as the weekly action that shows whether there is institutional support and growth heading into the economic recovery. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 4/16Summary: The indexes set more records on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs again. That gains initially came at open after positive building data drove the materials sector to the top of the sector list. It was not a straight line. The market dipped in the morning and the indexes needed to climb back to close near intraday highs. Notes The private indicator I use to draw the large candles on the Daily Market Update chart is not working today (you can see the issue looking at previous daily updates). TV identified the issue and is working on it. Until its fixed, I'll include just the daily summary data at the top of the chart and include an additional daily candlestick chart in the report below. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 16, 2021 Facts: +0.10%, Volume higher, Closing range: 88%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high after early selling turns to late buying Bad: Red body, morning sell-off, slight dip at end of session Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long lower wick with a thin body at the top of the candle Advance/Decline: More than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (+0.48%), RUT (+0.25%), VIX (-1.93%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.21%), Utilities (XLU +0.81%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.07%) and Energy (XLE -0.80%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The indexes set more records on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs again. That gains initially came at open after positive building data drove the materials sector to the top of the sector list. It was not a straight line. The market dipped in the morning and the indexes needed to climb back to close near intraday highs. The Nasdaq closed with +0.10%, above yesterday's close but slightly below the opening price. The bears took over shortly after open, bringing the index nearly to yesterday's low. But the bears fought back and bought it back to make an intraday high before dipping into close. The long lower wick was formed in the morning selling. The thing 8% body is at the top of the candle which has an 88% closing range. There were more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.48% a bit below the 0.64% it gained in the first 10 minutes of the session. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.36%. Both closed a new all-time highs. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to slowly work itself out of a base with a +0.25% advance today. The VIX volatility index dropped another -1.93%. Materials (XLB +1.21%) was the top sector, gapping up at open on the positive building data. Utilities (XLU +0.81%) was the second best sector, signaling some caution from investors perhaps on lower than expected consumer data or protecting against the volatility of a big options expiration day. Communications (XLC -0.07%) and Energy (XLE -0.80%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues its downward trend with a -0.14% decline today. The US 30y treasury bond yield declined while the US 10y and 2y note yields advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) both Gold (GOLD) advanced . Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.567. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) continued its breakout, setting another new all-time high with a +0.48% advance. Amazon (AMZN) also advanced, gaining +0.60% and regaining ground from a pullback earlier in the week. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.25% and -0.11% but the base within their uptrends remain intact. Pfizer (PFE), Cisco (CSCO), Comcast (CMCSA), and Home Depot (HD) topped the mega-cap list today. Most mega-caps faired pretty well for the day. At the bottom of the list are PayPal (PYPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Facebook (FB). It was a different story for growth stocks. There were some winners with Moderna (MRNA), Dr Horton (DHI), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and RH (RH) topping the daily update list. However, there were more losers than winners and some of the losses were a surprise. Pinterest (PINS) dropped nearly 10% on news that an analyst is forecasting a deceleration in omnichannel spending from retailers. DataDog (DDOG) and Fiverr (FVRR) gave up recent gains with 5% declines today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The only thing on the economic calendar for Monday is a short-term treasury bill auction. It's not likely to impact outlook on bonds or equities. Coca-Cola (KO) will kick-off the week with a premarket earnings release. After market close, IBM (IBM), United Airlines (UAL), and Steel Dynamics (STLD) could be important earnings reports to watch. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index testing the 14,000 support area in the morning. That was a spot for the bulls to come back in and start buying, helping the index to bounce of the line and make it back to a higher high before close. The five-day trend and one-day trend lines point to a +0.36% gain, moving the index slowly but surely toward a new all-time high. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -0.89% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been six trading days in a row that the advance/decline ratio is below 1.0 even as the index makes higher highs. Looking at the QQQ (weighted) index vs the QQQE (equal weight) index, the gains for the week are a bit more for the weighted index, but not that much higher. A closer look could tell, but likely what happened is the mega-caps kept moving up as lower cap stocks rotated throughout the week, keeping the daily A/D ratio low each day despite a broader gain on a weekly basis. What that means for the trend needs some more thought. Perhaps in the weekly update something will pop and provide some insight of where we can expect things to go next week. On the daily look, it seems the index has support and will continue to move up as economic activity continues picking up. For growth investors, it sure would be nice to have the gains be more broadly (and consistently) shared across the index. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/15Summary: Positive economic data gave a kick in the right direction to equity markets, allowing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average to close again at all-time highs. The day was owned by the bulls with just a few pullbacks, but still the gains were not felt by everyone, with more stocks declining than advancing. Notes The private indicator I use to draw the large candles on the Daily Market Update chart is not working today (you can also see the issue looking at previous daily updates). Until its fixed, I'll include just the daily summary data at the top of the chart and include an additional daily candlestick chart in the report below. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 15, 2021 Facts: +1.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 87%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, higher low, close above 14,000 Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly body with about equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.11%), DJI (+0.90%), RUT (+0.42%), VIX (-2.47%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.90%) and Technology (XLK +1.72%) were top. Financial (XLF -0.09%) and Energy (XLE -0.81%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive economic data gave a kick in the right direction to equity markets, allowing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average to close again at all-time highs. The day was owned by the bulls with just a few pullbacks, but still the gains were not felt by everyone, with more stocks declining than advancing. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.31% gain on higher volume. The candle, made up of mostly a green body, has a closing range of 87% about even upper and lower wicks. A higher high and higher low provides direction to the previous days outside range. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 1.31% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +1.11%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also had gains for the day, advancing 0.42%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.47%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.90%) and Technology (XLK +1.72%) were top. Financial (XLF -0.09%) and Energy (XLE -0.81%) were the only losing sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.04%. The US 30y treasury bond yield, and US 10y and 2y note yields all declined for the day. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) advanced for the day. The High Yield bond prices made a move upward after basing for a few weeks. Silver (SILVER) both Gold (GOLD) advanced . Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.571. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the neutral area, moving just a bit to the greed side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 96.57. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four big mega-caps all gained for the day after pulling back yesterday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed at new all-time highs. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are continuing breakouts but have a ways to go to new all-time highs. Nvidia (NVDA), UnitedHealth (UNH), PayPal (PYPL) and Adobe (ADBE) topped the mega-cap list with gains of +2.5% and higher. At the bottom of the list were Bank of America (BAC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Walt Disney (DIS) and Exxon Mobil (XOM). Growth stocks were mixed with Okta (OKTA), CloudFlare (NET), ROKU (ROKU) and MongoDB (MDB) topping the list with over 3% gains. At the bottom of the list are Digital Turbine (APPS), UP Fintech (TIGER), Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG). DELL Technologies (DELL) rose +6.71% on news that they will spin-off VMWare (VMW). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be released on Friday morning. We will also get an update on Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment. Friday's earnings reports include Honeywell (HON) and Morgan Stanley (MS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to rise above the 14,000 line, staying above the line even after a couple afternoon tests of the line. The five-day trend and one-day trend lines point to a +0.24% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.13% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Positive economic news in the morning was enough to lift the indexes, but not enough to see gains shared broadly across the market. The gain on higher volume is a positive, but it would be good to see the Advance/Decline number be above 1.0. As the index inches toward a new all-time high, we can expect a bit more rotation as investors take profits and chase gains in other stocks. Trying to find those opportunities, rotating your own investments, can be tricky. So as always, its best to stick to the rules that work for you and your trading style, sticking with the stocks that are working for you. That message is for me too. I've been burned by breaking rules too many times already in 2021. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/14Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 14, 2021 Facts: -0.99%, Volume lower, Closing range: 10%, Body: 75% Good: Higher high, pullback is on lower volume Bad: Selling almost entire day, couldn't hold above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, candle is mostly body with a longer upper wick from a rally at open Advance/Decline: Slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.41%), DJI (+0.16%), RUT (+0.84%), VIX (+2.04%) Sectors: Energy (+2.78%) and Materials (+0.72%) were top. Communications (-1.03%) and Technology (XLK -1.06%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The cyclicals moved back to the top of the sector list as investors were motivated by positive import/export data and crude oil inventories. The data provided a good reason for investors to rotate back into the cyclical sectors after chasing gains in big tech over the past few weeks. The Nasdaq pulled back from recent gains, closing the day with a -0.99% decline on lower volume. The 75% red body represents a day for the bears that ended in a 10% closing range. The index set a higher high in the morning but ended the day with a lower low, providing an outside bearish candle. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.41% for the day after setting a new all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) also set a new all-time high and closed the day with a +0.16% gain, but the close was well below the intraday high. The Russell 2000 (RUT) preformed the best for the day with a +0.84% gain, but also closed below intraday highs. The VIX volatility index gained +2.04%. Cyclical stocks were at the top o fthe sector list. Energy (+2.78%) and Materials (+0.72%) were the best performing. Energy was driven to the top by higher than expected demand for crude oil. Financials (+0.60%) also performed well, helped by earnings beats by big finance companies announced before market open. The big growth sectors of Communications (-1.03%) and Technology (XLK -1.06%) that drove recent gains, were at the bottom of today's sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.21%. The US 30y treasury bond yield, and US 10y and 2y note yields all gained for the day. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) declined for the day. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) had a huge advance after data showed a surprisingly level of demand. Timber (WOOD) advanced slightly. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. The outlook for economic activity, showing by the positive import/export data, is driving these prices higher along with the cyclical sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.566. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the neutral area, moving just a bit to the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. I've been mentioning how extended they've gotten over the past two weeks, so a pullback is not a surprise, nor is it bad thing. Apple (AAPL) declined -1.79% but finally had its 21d EMA cross above the 50d MA, further confirming an uptrend for the stock. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -1.12%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.97%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.56%. Alphabet was already developing a based and may be the first to make the next breakout higher. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the mega-cap list, driving the Energy sector performance for the day. PetroChina (PTR) and Bank of America (BAC) were also near the top. At the bottom of the list were Tesla (TSLA), PayPal (PYPL), Nvidia (NVDA) and Neftlix (NFLX). The majority of the growth stock list had declines for the day. The biggest gainers in our list were UP Fintech (TIGR), Moderna (MRNA), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and Fastly (FSLY). GrowGeneration (GRWG), Palantir (PLTR), Square (SQ) and Digital Turbine (APPS) were the biggest losers with more than 5% declines. Investor's attention was on the Coinbase (COIN) debut today with a 40% swing in prices from lows to highs and a close that was 23% below the intraday high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday has several economic data releases. Initial Jobless Claims data before the market opens will hopefully recover a bit from last week's negative surprise. Retail Sales data for March should show an improvement over the February numbers that were brought down by weather events. The Manufacturing Index data and Industrial Production data will also be leading indicators on the recovery of economic activity. The Financial sector earnings reports will include Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Charles Schwab (SCHW) and BlackRock (BLK). Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), Delta Airlines (DAL) will also be closely watched earnings reports for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index popped above the 14,000 line briefly today before selling off the rest of the day. That type of round-number resistance is not unexpected as investors tend to place conditional rules at round numbers. The five-day trend line points to a +1.30% gain for Thursday, back above 14,000. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -0.33% as the index regresses back to the center line. The one-day trend line points to a -1.25% loss tomorrow which would leave the index around the 13,700 support area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up In the previous few updates, we recognized that the big tech and mega-cap names that were driving gains were also getting quite extended. As rotations go, investors took profits and moved them into the next opportunity for some gains which is the cyclicals and recovery stocks. There is still some room for the mega-caps to pause and let moving average lines catch up with the recent gains. The expectation is for sideways or lower for tomorrow, but gains across a much broader set of stocks in the Nasdaq would be very welcome and healthy for the current bull market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 4/13Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (25d), 4/5 (5d) and today 4/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 13, 2021 Facts: +1.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 86%, Body: 89% (w/gap) Good: Higher high, higher low, large green body and high closing range Bad: Small dip at end of day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body under a small upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: Three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.33%), DJI (-0.20%), RUT (-0.22%), VIX (-1.54%) Sectors: Utilities (+1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.06%) were top. Consumer Staples (-0.53%) and Finance (-0.33%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Bigger than expected inflation didn't hold back the markets from setting new records today. The S&P 500 set another new record close while the Nasdaq inches toward key support levels. The gains were driven mostly by large mega-caps and not shared broadly across the indexes. The Nasdaq advanced +1.05% for the day and closed just below the 14,000 resistance line. The candle has no lower wick as the intraday low was set at the opening bell. The thick green 86% body led the index to a 89% closing range (including the gap) with the intraday high being set late in the afternoon. The advance was driven by larger cap stocks, as there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.33%, closing just below a new all-time high set intraday. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.20%, weighed down by cyclical sectors. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to underperform the other indexes with a -0.22% decline today. The VIX volatility index declined -1.54%. Utilities (XLU +1.19%) was the top sector, signaling caution among investors despite the gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.06%) and Technology (XLK +0.94%) were the second and third best sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.53%) and Finance (XLF -0.33%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.28%. The US 30y treasury bond yield declined after a strong auction of the bond today. US 10y and 2y note yields also declined for the day. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) remained flat near its highs. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.521. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) had a +2.43% and nearly got the 21d EMA line above the 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) continues setting new all-time highs with a +1.01% advance. Amazon (AMZN) held onto a +0.61% gain after advancing more than 1.5% intraday. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed the day with a +0.56% advance. Tesla (TSLA) was the big mega-cap winner of the day with a big +8.60% gain. Nvidia (NVDA) and PayPal (PYPL) join Apple to fill out the top four. At the bottom of the list are consumer staples Procter & Gamble (PG) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) along with big finance JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC). Nike was the worst performing mega-cap with over a 2% decline. The growth stock list had a decent day with CloudFlare (NET) topping the list, closing the day with a 11.30% gain. Palantir (PLTR), SUMO Logic (SUMO) and Moderna (MRNA) had gains of over 7%. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) were at the bottom of the list with over 2% declines. Zoom Video (ZM) also had a big gain for the day perhaps on fears of the vaccine concerns (now including Johnson & Johnson) slowing down the return to work. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Economic news for Wednesday includes Export/Import Price index data before markets open. Crude Oil Inventory data will be released after the market opens. JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) will get earnings season going for big finance with reports on Wednesday. In addition, retail stocks Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) and Lovesac (LOVE) will release earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is just under the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. With big tech stocks extended above bases, we may need one more pull back before this breakthrough. The one-day trend line points to a +0.39% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a sideways move. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.73% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It may seem that inflation data was ignored in the equities markets, with the Nasdaq having a gain and the S&P 500 hitting a record high. However, the gains in the market were driven by large mega-caps and not broadly shared across the indexes. After the inflation data was released the US dollar weakened further. The weakening of the US dollar will positively impact valuations of large multinational companies. Exports become cheaper, boosting revenues in foreign subsidiaries. When those revenues are repatriated for reporting, they are also worth more translated back into the USD. On the other hand, domestic companies are more likely to be impacted by inflation and the weakening dollar as imports become more expensive. Not all the expense can be passed onto the consumer, so margins will be reduced while the companies balance higher prices with the impact to demand. The high inflation is expected to be transitionary and should come back down later in the year after lagging supply catches up with the accelerated demand caused by consumers getting back out shopping, spending savings, stimulus checks and credit. The high demand is seen in the huge surprise export data from China. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - April 13Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Like". Have a good day. ---------------------------------- We need to see if we can break off the downtrend line and climb towards the 3548.97 point. If it falls, we need to make sure it is supported at 3294.62. The next volatility period is around April 20th. -------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the fall of the gap (33800.6-33775.1) and closed at -0.16%. ------------------------------ (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the fall of the gap (13900.19-13854.44) and closed at -0.36%. ------------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (4128.8-4124.7) and closed at -0.02%. --------------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We have to see if we can get support and ascend at 1727.175. ------------------------------------- (USOIL 1D chart) We have to see if we can ascend above the 60.25 point. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, it's important to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for the sake of convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the conventional stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator that oh92 disclosed. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective. GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Cigar at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
Daily Market Update for 4/12Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (25d), 4/5 (5d) and today 4/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 12, 2021 Facts: -0.36%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: -5% Good: Higher low than previous day, high closing range Bad: Distribution day, lower high, loss on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, thin red body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Almost three declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (-0.16%), VIX (+1.32%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.59%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.48%) and Energy (XLE -0.79%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After several days of big gains, its ok for the markets to take a pause. Morning selling turned into buying as treasury auctions showed little trouble and yields remained under control. But the confidence wasn't enough to hold the indexes near intraday highs as investors turned their attention to inflation data becoming available Tuesday morning. The Nasdaq closed the session with a -0.36% decline on higher volume, marking a distribution day for the index. The thin red body of 5% represents indecision between the good news on treasury auctions, but the potential for bad news in inflation data. The positive is that the body is in the upper half of the candle with a high closing range of 71%, showing a slightly more bullishness in the market. There were 3 declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.02%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.16%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to underperform the other indexes with a -0.43% decline today. The VIX volatility index advanced +1.32%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.59%) were top performing sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -0.48%) and Energy (XLE -0.79%) were bottom. Energy opened the day at the top of the sector list, but quickly moved to the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.11%. The US 30y treasury bond yield remained flat while the and 10y treasury note yield advanced. The shorter term 2y note yield advanced, helping bring down the spread between short term and long term. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) declined for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined slightly. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.596. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the big four mega-caps, Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) were able to hold onto gains for the day despite closing below intraday highs. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both declined. All four are trading above key moving average lines. Apple is getting close to getting the 21d EMA to cross above the 50d MA. The accelerated gains for the big four this past week results in their prices getting extended and some pullback or pause may be in order. That may mean another day or two of pause in the indexes as well. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list despite being fined a record amount by the Chinese government over the weekend. The company stated the fine will have little impact to the company and investors must be relieved that the outcome wasn't worse. Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA) and Pfizer (PFE) fill out the remaining top four mega-caps for the day. In addition to Apple and Alphabet, the big mega-cap losers for the day included Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Intel (INTC). The mega-caps topped the growth stock list as well. Just below them in the list were Snowflake (SNOW), MongoDb (MDB), Okta (OKTA) and DataDog (DDOG). At the bottom of the growth list were FUTU Holdings (FUTU), DraftKings (DKNG), UP Fintech (TIGR) and Ehang Holdings (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead All eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index data for March being released before market open on Tuesday. The data compliments the produce price index data released this past week. The produce price index data is leading indicator to consumer price index data, both providing an outlook on inflation. Investors are fearful of inflation bringing an end to lower interest rates. Earnings reports will start to pick up this week, but there are no notable earnings for the daily update on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is inching toward the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. The five-day trend line points to a +0.37% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.06% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.09% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was an indecisive day as investors await inflation data and key earnings reports from big finance this week. For inflation, it seems investors are fearing the worst. That could be a good thing if the data is not quite as frightful as feared. Last week, the Nasdaq climbed +3.12% while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average set new all-time highs. So it should not come as a huge surprise that the market takes a breather, especially as more economic data is on its way. In fact, we may see a little more pullback or sideways action before the Nasdaq marches toward new all-time highs for itself. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 4/5/2021 - 4/9/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 5, 2021 Facts: +1.67%, Volume lower, Closing range: 94% (w/Gap), Body: +80% Good: Three positive days in a row, above 13,700 confirmed with a quick retest Bad: Lowering volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, mostly green body with a slightly longer upper wick Advance/Decline: About the same number of advancing as declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+1.44%), DJI (+1.13%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (+3.35%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.27%) and Communications (XLC +2.11%) were top. Energy (XLE -2.39%) was the only declining sector. Expectation: Higher The markets set new records on Monday led by gains from the largest public companies in Consumer Discretionary, Communications and Technology. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial marked new all-time highs with a bullish session that began the day with opening gap ups. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.67% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 94% includes the morning gap-up that led to an 80% green body. A minor fade in the afternoon created a slightly longer upper wick than the lower wick but the higher high and higher low continue a strong uptrend from last week's pivot. There were about the same number of gaining stocks as declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 6, 2021 Facts: -0.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 24%, Body: +16% Good: Higher high, higher low, held support around 13,700 Bad: Long upper shadow from afternoon selling Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.10%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-0.25%), VIX (+1.17%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.53%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.43%) were top. Health Services (XLV -0.38%) and Technology (XLK -0.43%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher There was caution in the market on Tuesday after several days of record setting gains. Investors are monitoring the progress of infrastructure plans and the potential for new taxes. At the same time, the pandemic keeps popping up new fears as Canada declares a very serious third wave. The Nasdaq closed with a small -0.05% loss, after climbing 0.5% in the morning. The closing range of 24% is above a thin 16% body signaling indecision. The long upper wick was formed from a morning rally that sold off in the afternoon. Still, the index seemed to have support around the 13,700 area, testing the area twice and settling just below the line at the close. There were 3 declining stocks for every 2 advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 7, 2021 Facts: -0.07%, Volume lower, Closing range: 44%, Body: +17% Good: Stayed near 13,700 support, lower volume, not a distribution day Bad: Indecisive candle, no signal on direction Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.15%), DJI (+0.05%), RUT (-1.60%), VIX (-5.30%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.77%) and Technology (XLK +0.53%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -1.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways It was a choppy side-ways session today for most of the market. The small caps suffered compared to the larger caps while mid-cap growth stocks had mixed results. Overall, investor sentiment remained cautious without many big reactions to economic news. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.07% decline, another indecisive day without a clear signal on direction. The 17% body is in the lower half of the candle as the index attempted to find a rally twice but reversed quickly back to the 13,700 area. The closing range of 44% is better than the previous day, but the lower higher and lower low show the bears put up a good fight. There were nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 8, 2021 Facts: +1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: +45% Good: Gains all-day with few pullbacks, high closing range, higher volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick under a green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: Three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.44%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Energy (XLE -1.30%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher Investors shook off early nervousness over higher jobless claims and bulls led the markets rally throughout the day. Treasury yields, the US Dollar and commodity prices all supported Technology as the leading sector of the day, carrying the Nasdaq to the leading index of the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.03% gain on higher volume. The 99% closing range resulted from a 45% green body at the top of the candle which opened with a gap above yesterday's close. The lower wick was formed in the morning, but the index quickly erased the dip with gains into the afternoon that ended with a rally at close. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 9, 2021 Facts: +0.51%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: +72% Good: Never revisited morning low, bullish buying rest of the day Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bullish outside day candle with short lower wick, almost no upper wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.10%) and Industrials (XLI +0.97%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Energy (XLE -0.66%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher The morning producer price index numbers are a great sign for the economy as demand increases in manufactured goods indicates consumer demand. It's not a great sign if you are worried about inflation. The markets opened with a dip on the news, but quickly recovered as the dollar pulled back from the morning reaction to the news. The Nasdaq closed the day with a rally to gain +0.51% with a closing range of 97%. Volume was lower but buyers were present throughout the day, leading to a 72% green body over a small lower wick from the morning dip. The higher high and lower low, with a high closing range, create a bullish outside candle. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The story of the week was the strength of big tech as the four largest mega-caps broke out of bases and drove indexes and their respective sectors higher. The week also saw a breakout of growth stocks relative to value stocks after a few months of rotation. It's still yet to be determined if the trends will stick, but the charts show a positive trend. Although it was Apple with the big weekly gain, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla all helped kick-off the momentum on Monday. Microsoft continued gains from the previous week's big announcement deal with the US Army. Tesla announced record production and deliveries for the first quarter over the holiday weekend. The gap-up on Monday took the index well past a declining resistance line. The big gain warranted a pause as the index tested the 13,700 resistance area. The next two days were mostly sideways choppy action. Investors showed caution in the market, signaled by the rise of Utilities from the bottom to the top of the sector chart during Tuesday's session. The caution continued into Wednesday even as mega-caps continued to advance. Then a surprise consumer credit number arrived late on Wednesday. Instead of a $5B expected number for February, consumer credit rose to $27.58 signaling that consumers were not only confident (from the previous weeks data), but were spending money. That was enough to continue the rally and the Nasdaq opened with another gap up on Thursday despite disappointing jobless claims in the morning. On top of the economic data, the USD dollar continued to weaken while the treasury yield curve was flattening and commodity prices showed high demand. It was bullish for the economy and the right context to see big tech and growth stocks soar. Friday ended the week with an outside day. Prices dipped in the morning as inflation worries crept back into investors' minds after the produce price index data was higher than expected. Those worries subsided and the index continued its rally into the close for the week. The Nasdaq advanced +3.12% for the week. The closing range is 99% for a second week in a row. Volume was lower. The lowering volume trend is largely due to the absence of the retail investor. That is confirmed by VandaTrack, which tracks retail investors and shows they are taking a step back from the market. That's bad news if you want to play your hand in the next YOLO meme stock trade. But it's good news if you want to see fewer swings in the value of your portfolio. The higher high and higher low is a great signal of the uptrend. The index closed just above 13,900 and is working toward the round number resistance of 14,000 before it moves toward a new all-time high. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) both set new all-time highs, making +2.71% and +1.95% advances for the week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) retreated -0.46% for the week. The Russell 2000 was outperforming since August but has been consolidating since hitting an all-time high in March. Certainly, small-caps and the index will benefit from market rallies, but the question will be at what level of relative performance to the rest of the market. This is something to watch over the coming weeks. The VIX volatility index closed well with the pre-pandemic price range with another -3.69% decline. The absence of retail investors seems to have helped reduce some of the volatility in the market as well. Growth broke out this week relative to value stocks. The dip in relative performance hit a low on March 8 and chopped back and forth before making a big move this week. The S&P 500 was dominated by three growth sectors for the week. Technology ( XLK ) finished the week as the top sector, taking the top spot on Thursday and Friday as big tech companies solidified breakouts from their recent consolidations. Likewise, Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) and Communication Services ( XLC ) finished in second and third place largely thanks for mega-caps that are overweight in the lists. Energy ( XLE ) was at the bottom of the list with over a 4% decline. Some of that may be attributed to mixed outlook from analysts on supply and demand for oil . But Energy also tends to suffer when a large amount of investment rotates into the three big growth sectors. Only Energy declined for the week. The other sectors had gains, albeit underperformed the broader S&P 500 index . The 30y treasury bond yield gained slightly while the 10y note yield declined. The US 2y note yield also declined. Most importantly, the yield curve continues its trend of flattening, helping improve investor confidence in growth companies impacted by interest rates. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the week. The spread between corporate bonds and treasury bonds still has some tightening to get back to pre-pandemic levels, but the trend is heading in the right direction. The US Dollar (DXY) retreated -0.89% this week giving a boost to big multi-national companies that can benefit from a weakened US Dollar. The recovery of economic activity is accelerating and that can be seen clearly in demand for commodities. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the week. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!) declined for the week as investors balance the increased output with expected recovery in demand. Timber (WOOD) advanced for another week. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced for the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps It was a great week for the big four mega-caps. They all drove the indexes and their respective sectors higher. Apple (AAPL) gained + 8.13%, Microsoft (MSFT) gained +5.57%, Amazon (AMZN) gained +6.68%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +6.62%. All four now show the 10 week moving average line above the 40 week moving average line, confirming their uptrends. As an added signal behind the strength of these breakout moves in the mega-caps, note at the volume is higher for all of them and at the bottom, the thick blue bars show a strong outperformance of the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) gained over 9% after providing a cautiously optimistic outlook for this year during their earnings announcement. Delta Airlines (DAL) and Marriott (MAR) both held onto gains for the week, despite their red candles. Exxon Mobil (XOM) declined for the week, pulled down by downgrade of Chevron and sell-off of Energy stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) closed the week 0.588. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the same area, on the side of greed, for most of the week. The NAAIM exposure index rose to 89.85, showing money managers are increasing position sizes again. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead There will be Treasury auctions for 10y and 3y notes on Monday afternoon. The performance of those auctions could impact investor sentiment in the bond market and send yields in either direction. Consumer Price Index data for March will be released on Tuesday. The data compliments the produce price index data released this past week. The produce price index data is leading indicator to consumer price index data, both providing an outlook on inflation. Economic news for Wednesday includes Export/Import Price index data before markets open. Crude Oil Inventory data will be released after the market opens. Thursday has several economic data releases. Initial Jobless Claims data before the market opens will hopefully recover a bit from last week's negative surprise. Retail Sales data for March should show an improvement over the February numbers that were brought down by weather events. The Manufacturing Index data and Industrial Production data will also be leading indicators on the recovery of economic activity. Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be released on Friday morning. We will also get an update on Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment. This quarters earning season will pick up next week, dominated by earnings reports in the Financial sector. Monday and Tuesday do not have any notable reports for the daily update. On Wednesday, JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) will release earnings reports. In addition, retail stocks Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) and Lovesac (LOVE) will release earnings. On Thursday, the Financial sector earnings reports will include Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Charles Schwab (SCHW) and BlackRock (BLK). Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), Delta Airlines (DAL) will also be closely watch earnings reports for the day. Friday's reports include Honeywell (HON) and Morgan Stanley (MS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side A lot of the bullish side is a continuation of the signals we saw at the end of the previous week. The mega-caps continued breakout moves on higher volume this week which has led the indexes higher and restored confidence in big tech and growth stocks. The volatility in the market continues to drop to pre-pandemic levels as retail investors spent new stimulus checks on something other than meme stocks. The US Dollar and Treasury Yields have also stopped their climbs that was causing investors to worry about interest rates impacting growth companies while the US Dollar impacts the bottom line of multi-nationals. The growth sectors of Technology, Communications and Consumer Discretionary are leading the market higher. These sectors focused on innovation, have been responsible for many of the big rallies over the past decade. The pop in consumer credit came as a positive surprise this past week. Consumer sentiment numbers this week could add to the positive outlook on spending as consumers unleash record-setting savings and new stimulus checks into the economy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Investors are not worry-free. Biden's infrastructure plans and proposal for higher corporate taxes are having analysts and investors calculating the impact to sectors and valuations of US companies. The progress of these proposals in congress will keep investors on their toes for the coming weeks. Inflation also continues to be a top worry, stoked by Friday's produce price index data. The inflation outlook could get worse as consumer price index data is released this week. The Fed's assurance to not change monetary policy to control inflation only helps calm the worries to a certain degree. Energy being at the bottom of the sector list is another sign of the uncertainty. Analysts are watching closely as the pandemic hits third-waves in many countries which could cause lower than hoped demand for travel and leisure, and likewise lower demand for oil. While OPEC is cautiously increasing supply, a sharp pull back in demand will cause the sector further losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq cleared key areas of resistance this past week, leaving just a few key levels in between Friday's close and a new all-time high. On the positive side, the levels are: 13,905.41 is the high of this week. Make a new high for next week to continue the uptrend. 14,000 will be the next area of resistance. Round numbers tend to be areas of resistance as they become triggers for alerts and buy/sell rules. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. That might be a stretch to get there this week, but keep it in our sites. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The low of this past week is 13,582.76. The moving average lines are all very close together. The 10d MA is at 13,479.31. The 50d moving average is at 13,452.07. The 21d exponential moving average is at 13,439.48. Look for the index to stay above these averages and for the 21d EMA to cross above the 50d MA. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,128 for next week. The low of this past week is 12,922.57. Stay above that price to give us a higher low for this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The signals looked good coming into this week and continue to show positive signs for next week. There are certainly a few things we'd like to see to remain confident. For the Nasdaq, clear the 14,000 line and set a new all-time high, joining the other major indexes. That will require big tech and growth stocks to continue to rally. The Russell 2000 is not participating in the rally thus far. Having it break out of the symmetrical triangle and begin moving along with the other indexes will be a positive sign of broad support in the market. There's a lot of be positive about, but don't forget things can always change quickly. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - April 8Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Please also ask for the "Like" clock. Have a nice day. ---------------------------------- You should watch for any movement that deviates from the box section 3008.91-3294.62. If the CCI line rises by more than 100 points on the CCI-RC indicator, volatility may occur, so careful trading is necessary. ---------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (33430.2-33445.0) rising and ended at 0.05%. ----------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the gap (13698.4-13675.3) falling and closed at -0.07%. ---------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with an increase in the gap (4073.9-4074.3) and closed at 0.15%. ----------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We need to see if we can get support at 1727.175 and climb along the uptrend line. --------------------------------------- (USOIL 1D chart) You should watch for any movement that deviates from the 55.26-60.25 segment. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, it's important to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for the sake of convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the conventional stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator published by oh92. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they are not trading 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Cigar at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
1
Daily Market Update for 4/9Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (25d), 4/5 (5d) and today 4/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 9, 2021 Facts: +0.51%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: +72% Good: Never revisited morning low, bullish buying rest of the day Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bullish outside day candle with short lower wick, almost no upper wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.10%) and Industrials (XLI +0.97%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Energy (XLE -0.66%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The morning producer price index numbers are a great sign for the economy as demand increases in manufactured goods indicates consumer demand. It's not a great sign if you are worried about inflation. The markets opened with a dip on the news, but quickly recovered as the dollar pulled back from the morning reaction to the news. The Nasdaq closed the day with a rally to gain +0.51% with a closing range of 97%. Volume was lower but buyers were present throughout the day, leading to a 72% green body over a small lower wick from the morning dip. The higher high and lower low, with a high closing range, create a bullish outside candle. The day was dominated by industrials and mega-caps as the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed at a new all-time high with a +0.89% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) also set a record close after a +0.77% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) did not do as well but still was able to squeak out a gain of +0.04%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.53%, continuing to move lower into its pre-pandemic trading range. Health (XLV +1.10%) and Industrials (XLI +0.97%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Energy (XLE -0.66%) were bottom. The sectors don't hold any big surprises except Energy which rose to the top of the list just after market open and quickly sank to the bottom by mid-day as the outlook for demand vs supply was mixed among investors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.12% but was well off intraday highs driven by the inflation outlook. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all advanced. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both declined slightly. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Nothing alarming in the commodities. Oil was choppy intraday as analysts tried to figure out the supply and demand outlook. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.588. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps continue to rise. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.02% and Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.21%. Both are moving toward their 21d EMA crossing above the 50d MA to solidify the uptrend. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) already met that milestone and gained +1.03% and 0.90% for the day. United Health (UNH) topped the mega-cap list helping the Health services sector lead for the day. Salesforce.com (CRM), Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) round out the top performing mega-caps. As the bottom of the list were Alibaba (BABA), Comcast (CMCSA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Tesla (TSLA). Moderna (MRNA) topped the growth stock list that is about half-and-half gainers and losers. UP Fintech (TIGR), Chewy (CHWY) and Palantir (PLTR) also were at the top of the list. Peloton (PTON), Beyond Meat (BYND), Snowflake (SNOW) and Zoom Video (ZM) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will kick-off next week with a 10-year Treasury Note Auction in the afternoon. Earnings reports will start to pick up next week, but there are no notable earnings for the daily update on Monday or Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is inching toward the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. The five-day and one-day trend lines point to a +0.34% gain on Monday. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.91% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The day was for the large/mega caps and industrials. Some mid-cap growth stocks also did well. The Russell 2000 and small-caps seemed to give back are consolidating in a bullish symmetric triangle. We can expect the index to eventually breakout and join the other indexes if the market continues upward. I'm confident it will follow the market trend, but the question will be at what pace. The small cap index was on a tear from September to March, outperforming everything, but pulled back with the recent rotations. Will it pick back up the previous pace or will it underperform the other indexes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/8Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (24d), 4/1 (5d) and today 4/8 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 8, 2021 Facts: +1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: +45% Good: Gains all-day with few pullbacks, high closing range, higher volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick under a green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: Three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.44%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Energy (XLE -1.30%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors shook off early nervousness over higher jobless claims and bulls led the markets rally throughout the day. Treasury yields, the US Dollar and commodity prices all supported Technology as the leading sector of the day, carrying the Nasdaq to the leading index of the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.03% gain on higher volume. The 99% closing range resulted from a 45% green body at the top of the candle which opened with a gap above yesterday's close. The lower wick was formed in the morning, but the index quickly erased the dip with gains into the afternoon that ended with a rally at close. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied after a few days of declines and ended the day with a +0.88% gain. The S&P 500 advanced +0.42% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed with a +0.17% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -1.22% and is now well within the pre-pandemic range of highs and lows. Technology (XLK +1.44%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%) were top sectors for the day. Utilities (XLU -0.08%) opened with gains in the morning but faded to near the bottom of the list by the end of the day. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Energy (XLE -1.30%) were the worst performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.38% continues to retreat from a pivot high at the end of March. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all declined. The yield curve continued its trend of flattening. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. All are showing strong demand and bullish for the economic recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.592. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. The NAAIM exposure index rose to 89.95 from 52.02 the previous week. The index, released on Wednesday evenings represents the amount of exposure in active investment managers portfolios. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps gained for another day. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +1.92% and +1.34%, helping carry the indexes into close. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.61% and +0.51%, but closed in the lower half of the intraday range. We are still anticipating the crossover of the 21d EMA over the 50d MA for Apple and Amazon which will signal a confident uptrend. Microsoft and Alphabet have already met that milestone. PayPal (PYPL +3.48%), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +2.95%), ASML Holding (ASML +2.13%), Tesla (TSLA +1.91%) were at the top of the mega-cap list. Big communications companies Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) joined Nike (NIKE) at the bottom of the list, all with over 2% declines. Today was much better for growth stocks than the previous day, with the majority of growth in the daily update list having gains. UP Fintech (TIGR), GrowGeneration (GRWG), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the list with over 10% gains each. Draft Kings (DKNG) and Dr Horton (DHI) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday, the producer price index data will be released that gives a view into inflation. Expect the US dollar and Treasury Yields to be impacted if the number is far off forecast. There are no notable earnings reports for Thursday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is nearing the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. The five-day trend line points to a +1.16% gain on Friday. The one-day trend line points to a small gain of +0.16%. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.85% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Everything lined up nicely for big tech and growth stocks today. Yields dropped back as the yield curve continues to flatten. The US dollar weakened, benefiting big multinational companies. Commodities show high demand indicating economic activity picking back up. Eyes will be on the produce price index data tomorrow before market opens. Higher prices would indicate more demand for products as a result of increased spending, but it may also make investors nervous about inflation. Still, Jerome Powell held firm today that inflation was unlikely, so investors will have to balance their worries with assurances from the Fed that changes in economic policy are still long off in the future. Don't fight the fed. The resurgence of growth stocks continues to accelerate relative to value stocks. The gains were broad across the category today. Many of the charts for growth have a long way to go to get past overhead supply and reach new all-time highs. Value stocks have leveled off for the past few weeks, could be basing and may have some more growth of their own. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/7Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (23d), 3/31 (5d) and today 4/7 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 7, 2021 Facts: -0.07%, Volume lower, Closing range: 44%, Body: +17% Good: Stayed near 13,700 support, lower volume, not a distribution day Bad: Indecisive candle, no signal on direction Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.15%), DJI (+0.05%), RUT (-1.60%), VIX (-5.30%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.77%) and Technology (XLK +0.53%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -1.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a choppy side-ways session today for most of the market. The small caps suffered compared to the larger caps while mid-cap growth stocks had mixed results. Overall, investor sentiment remained cautious without many big reactions to economic news. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.07% decline, another indecisive day without a clear signal on direction. The 17% body is in the lower half of the candle as the index attempted to find a rally twice but reversed quickly back to the 13,700 area. The closing range of 44% is better than the previous day, but the lower higher and lower low show the bears put up a good fight. There were nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the day with a +0.15% gain while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.05%. Both indexes were helped by mega-caps. The small caps didn’t fare so well. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.60% in a bearish day for the sector. The VIX volatility index declined +5.30% and closed at its lowest point since before the pandemic. Communications (XLC +0.77%) and Technology (XLK +0.53%) led the sector list. Industrials (XLI -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -1.72%) were at the bottom. Utilities (XLU -0.12%) retreated from the top of the list yesterday, signaling a bit more confidence among investors despite the subdued results in the indexes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.29% but did not seem to be impacted by the morning change in sentiment. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields both advanced for the day while 2y note yield declined. The yield curve steepened, but is still in a flattening trend since the beginning of April. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined slightly for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) gained for a second day. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. All are still showing strong demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.589. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps gained for the day and all four closed above the key moving average lines now that Apple (AAPL) finally closed above the 50d MA. The next milestone for these four will be to get the 21d EMA above the 50d MA showing a lasting trend after the dips in March. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are already there. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) still have the 21d EMA below the 50d MA but are starting to close the gap. Facebook (FB), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) are an interestingly diverse set of mega-caps to top the list for the day, representing four difference sectors. At the bottom of the list is Tesla (TSLA), Alibaba (BABA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Walt Disney (DIS). It was a challenging day for growth stocks as the majority of the daily update list had declines. SNAP (SNAP), Square (SQ), Twitter (TWTR) and PayPal (PYPL) topped the list, echoing the sector leaders. At the bottom of the list were yesterday's growth stock leaders including UP Fintech (TIGR) and Ehang Holdings (EH). Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG) were also near the bottom despite getting a boost the previous day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday brings the weekly Job Claims in the morning. At noon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak which will be watched closely and balanced against the FOMC Meeting Minutes from last month that were released today. There are no notable earnings reports for Thursday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index still has support in the 13,600-13,700 area and stayed above it after two tests today. The five-day trend line points to a +1.89% gain on Wednesday. The one-day trend line is nearly flat and points to a sideways move tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.40% loss, which is just above the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Indecision. Investors eyes were on the FOMC Meeting Minutes but sentiment remained unchanged after they were released. It sent the same message we've been hearing from the Fed, including a strong commitment to economic recovery while pushing off any policy changes until substantial progress is made. In a surprise at the end of the day, consumer credit for February was much higher than expected showing economic stimulus starting to work toward getting consumers spending again. It seems that growth stocks are beginning to gain ground again compared to value stocks. Since the beginning of March, this chart that compares Growth to Value has pivoted from a sharp decline that started in August. It has not been an easy rotation. There is still a lot of back and forth with growth stocks, and new winners are being sought out. The churn is likely caused by the mass exit of retail investors from the market. Those investors were heavily leaning on growth stocks in 2020 and the beginning of 2021, but volume has dropped significantly as lock downs end and consumers find other things to spend money on. Keep an eye out for new opportunities as the 2021 winners begin to emerge. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/6Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (22d), 3/30 (5d) and today 4/6 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 6, 2021 Facts: -0.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 24%, Body: +16% Good: Higher high, higher low, held support around 13,700 Bad: Long upper shadow from afternoon selling Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.10%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-0.25%), VIX (+1.17%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.53%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.43%) were top. Health Services (XLV -0.38%) and Technology (XLK -0.43%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview There was caution in the market on Tuesday after several days of record setting gains. Investors are monitoring the progress of infrastructure plans and the potential for new taxes. At the same time, the pandemic keeps popping up new fears as Canada declares a very serious third wave. The Nasdaq closed with a small -0.05% loss, after climbing 0.5% in the morning. The closing range of 24% is above a thin 16% body signaling indecision. The long upper wick was formed from a morning rally that sold off in the afternoon. Still, the index seemed to have support around the 13,700 area, testing the area twice and settling just below the line at the close. There were 3 declining stocks for every 2 advancing stocks. The S&P 500 closed the day with a -0.10% after setting another all-time high in the morning. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both delivered inside days (lower high, higher low) with -0.29% and -0.25% declines. The VIX volatility index advanced +1.17%. The sectors show a clear shift in investor sentiment about an hour after open. Energy was leading the sector list in the morning before a downgrade of Chevron by Goldman Sachs. The downgrade doesn't explain it all as Exxon Mobil and oil prices also came down from morning highs. The other signal of investor nervousness was the shift of Utilities (XLU) from the bottom sector in the morning to the top sector at close. The only other sector that seemed to react to the change in sentiment was Financials (XLF) likely as investors bought up treasuries and brought long term yields down. Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) ended the day at the top sector list. Health Services (XLV) and Technology (XLK) ended the day at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.29% but did not seem to be impacted by the morning change in sentiment. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields both declined for the day while 2y note yields rose. The yield curve continues to flatten. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced and continue in an uptrend. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) ended the day with gains, despite pulling back from morning highs. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. All are still showing strong demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.523. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Among the big four mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) ended the day with gains. However the declines across the other three were not enough to invalidate breakouts. With the big gains over the previous three sessions, there should be no surprise for prices to pause here. Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are all trading above both key moving average lines (the 21d EMA and 50d MA). Apple hit resistance at the 50d MA and closed below the line. Alibaba (BABA), Nike (NIKE) and AT&T (T) were some of the top mega-cap gainers for the day. At the bottom were Intel (INTC), United Health (UNH), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML). Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list had gains for the day. Top winners were ROKU (ROKU), UP Fintech (TIGR), Ehang Holdings (EH) and DataDog (DDOG). Investors still seem a bit uncertain which of these growth names will benefit with the economic recovery as they still chop back and forth regularly. For example Zynga (ZNGA) was near the top of the list yesterday, and at the bottom of the list today. DataDog at the bottom of the list yesterday and near the top today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There will be a few key updates on Wednesday morning. First employment data for March will be updated. Purchasing Managers Index data will indicate how much purchasing activity is happening in order to meet manufacturing demands. Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. There are no notable earnings reports for Wednesday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index still has support in the 13,600-13,700 area and stayed above it after two tests today. The five-day trend line points to a +2.10% gain on Wednesday. The one-day trend line is nearly flat and points to a sideways move tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.90% loss, which is just above the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors showed some nervousness today mid-morning, changing momentum in the market for several sectors. Despite the switch in sentiment, key areas of support held and we could view the day's result as a pause during a fairly aggressive uptrend the past few days. Still, the candle itself has that appearance of a shooting star that signals the end of an uptrend. So it could be things need to move sideways a bit here or even pull back once more before proceeding. With the overall economic situation continuing to approve, more upside seems in the future, but only the market can tell us when it will happen. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 4/5Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (21d), 3/29 (5d) and today 4/5 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 5, 2021 Facts: +1.67%, Volume lower, Closing range: 94% (w/Gap), Body: +80% Good: Three positive days in a row, above 13,700 confirmed with a quick retest Bad: Lowering volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, mostly green body with a slightly longer upper wick Advance/Decline: About the same number of advancing as declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+1.44%), DJI (+1.13%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (+3.35%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.27%) and Communications (XLC +2.11%) were top. Energy (XLE -2.39%) was the only declining sector. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The markets set new records on Monday led by gains from the largest public companies in Consumer Discretionary, Communications and Technology. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial marked new all-time highs with a bullish session that began the day with opening gap ups. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.67% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 94% includes the morning gap-up that led to an 80% green body. A minor fade in the afternoon created a slightly longer upper wick than the lower wick but the higher high and higher low continue a strong uptrend from last week's pivot. There were about the same number of gaining stocks as declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.44% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +1.13%. Small caps also had gains, but not quite as strong as the large and mega-caps. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gains +0.49%. The VIX volatility index advanced +3.35%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.27%) , Communications (XLC +2.11%) and Technology (XLK +2.07%) are all worth mentioning as the top sectors. They were the three to outperform the SPX which means they were also responsible for much of the gains in the broader index. All three were led higher by at least one of the top ten mega-caps. Energy (XLE -2.39%) was the only losing sector of the day due to a drop in crude oil prices. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.47% adding support to large multi-nationals. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields rose slightly for the day, but seem under control. 2y notes yields rose a bit more and narrowed the spread between short and long term. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Both are in an uptrend. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined slightly but seem to have support. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined as OPEC decided to increase production but then the pandemic seems to be worsening in Europe. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) remained flat. The soaring commodity prices show recovering demand in the economy, but could also be sign of coming inflation. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.501. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved more toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps produced some eye-popping charts today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) broke out into new all-time highs with +2.77% and +4.19% gains. Both are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMAZN) gained +2.08% and moved back above the 50d MA, and trades above both lines as well. Apple (AAPL) gained a respectable +2.36%, but still has some work to do to get above the 50d MA. Tesla (TSLA) found its way to the top of the mega-cap list after announcing record production and deliveries for the last quarter. Intel (INTC), Oracle (ORCL), Facebook (FB) and Alphabet all have gains of over 3% helping their respective sectors lead for the day. At the bottom of the list is Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobile (XOM). The growth stock list is a bit harder to decipher. Results are mixed and overall lean toward losses. Outside of Tesla and Facebook topping the list, Pinterest (PINS), Dr Horton (DHI) and Zynga (ZNGA) had leading gains for the day. However, a good number of growth stocks had more than 2% losses for the day with Enphase (ENPH), Etsy (ETSY) , Solar Edge (SEDG) and DataDog (DDOG) leading the declines with more than 4% losses. As the market turns toward a new rally, expect investors to be figuring out who the new winners and losers will be in the economic recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence numbers will be released just after market open. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be updated after market close. There are no notable earnings reports for Tuesday except maybe PAYX that could confirm a positive outlook for the labor market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved above the 13,600-13,700 support area and stayed above despite a quick retest. If the one-day trend continues, we can expect a +1.64% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.57% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -2.62% loss, which is below the 50d MA and just above the 21d EMA. There are some gaps to fill in the last few session opens, so it would not be a big surprise to revisit these areas. However, there is support at the 13,700 line and the 50d MA which could help reverse any dips. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Big tech showed up again last Wednesday afternoon but faded into close. It can back with a vengeance on Thursday and now is proving they are here to stay. Having Microsoft and Alphabet clear new all-time highs is a positive. There's no overhead supply for them to contend with for further gains. On the other hand, there are plenty of other mega-caps and growth stocks alike that need to claw their way back to all-time highs. The overhead supply, investors holding since prior to the dips, will cause some resistance as the sell on the way back up. The final characteristic from today is in deciphering investor sentiment for growth stocks. Some of the stocks that seemed poised to recover quickly pulled back again today despite the broader gains. Investors must be deciding which companies are the most likely to benefit from the recovering economy and new infrastructure proposals being debated in congress. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - April 6Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Please also ask for the "Like" clock. Have a nice day. ---------------------------------- You should watch for any movement that deviates from the box section 3008.91-3294.62. If it goes down, we need to make sure we get support at 3176.40. ------------------------------ (DJI 1D chart) The market closed at 1.13% as the gap (33153.2-33222.4) rose. ----------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the gap (13480.1-13594.9) rising and closed at 1.67%. ---------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with an increase in the gap (4019.9-4034.4) and closed at 1.44%. --------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We need to see if we can get support at 1727.175 and move above the uptrend line. -------------------------------------- (USOIL 1D chart) You should watch for any movement that deviates from the 55.26-60.25 segment. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, it's important to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for the sake of convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the conventional stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator that oh92 disclosed. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Cigar at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
Market Week In Review - 3/29/2021 - 4/1/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 29, 2021 Facts: -0.6%, Volume lower, Closing range: 52%, Body: -25% Good: Inside day on lower volume with a slightly longer lower wick Bad: Lower high with two intraday dips Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Red body in the middle of candle with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 5 declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.09%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-2.83%), VIX (+9.97%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.07%) and Communications (XLC +1.02%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.32%) and Energy (XLE -1.19%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher It was a choppy day to start the week. The intraday movement has the look of a spiral that indicates indecision in the market. That's not unexpected considering that investors had a few things to be nervous about including the re-opening of the Suez Canal and the large forced fire-sale from Archegos continuing into this week. It's also no surprise seeing the impact to the Energy and Financials sectors. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.6% loss on lower volume for the day. The inside day has a lower high and higher low. The closing range is 0.52% which is above the 0.40% that we want to see, and the longer lower wick indicates an upward trend intraday. So despite the red body and decline for the day, there are some positives to the candle. On the other hand, there were five declining stocks for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 30, 2021 Facts: -0.11%, Volume lower, Closing range: 80%, Body: +24% Good: Closing range of 80%, recovered from morning dip below 13,000 Bad: Lower high, lower low, trending down Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin green body in the upper half of the candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: A bit more than one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.32%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (+1.72%), VIX (-5.45%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.98%) and Financials (XLF +0.70%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.95%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.07%). Expectation: Sideways or Higher The bond market continued to show its influence on equities today, seemingly in a battle with strong consumer confidence numbers. A pre-market spike in long-term bond yields drove the Financials sector to a gap up at open. However, the yields began to taper off even before stronger than expected consumer confidence numbers were released after market open. The strong numbers sent the Consumer Discretionary sector to the top to finish the day. The Nasdaq never quite recovered from the morning yield scare, but did end the day in the upper range of the candle. The index closed with a -0.11% loss for the day on lower volume. The closing range of 80% is good indicator for intraday bullishness, but the 24% body and lower high means the index still has much to prove. There were 1.2 advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 31, 2021 Facts: +1.54%, Volume higher, Closing range: 62%, Body: +60% Good: Higher high, lower low, back above the 21d EMA Bad: Fade at the end of the day created long upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with n lower wick, long upper wick Advance/Decline: More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (-0.26%), RUT (+1.13%), VIX (-1.07%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.59%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.78%) were top. Energy (XLE -0.69%) and Financials (XLF -0.76%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The breakout that wasn't. News from Microsoft drove a mid-afternoon buying frenzy that was visible in the Microsoft intraday chart and big enough to show up in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 charts. However, the breakout quickly faded and took the indexes with it to close away from intraday highs. Still there were good gains in the market thanks to a bullish morning on positive economic outlook with Biden's announced infrastructure plans. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.54% gain on higher volume, and gave us the gain with higher confidence we were waiting for. The closing range of 62% is above a 60% body with no lower wick. There is a long upper wick from the dip at the end of the day. There were 1.32 advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 1, 2021 Facts: +1.76%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96% (w/ Gap), Body: +79% Good: Rally above and stayed above 50d MA Bad: Flat after initial rally Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, Mostly green body with barely visible upper and lower wicks. Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.18%), DJI (+0.52%), RUT (+1.50%), VIX (-10.67%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.55%) and Technology (XLK +2.01%) were top. Health (XLV -0.30%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.48%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Hello April and Q2! The Nasdaq leapt into the new month and quarter with a gap up and rise above the 50d moving average while the S&P 5000 closed over 4000 for the first time in history. Solid breakouts from big tech and a breadth of gains across indexes and sectors helped put strength behind the moves. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.76% gain on lower volume. The 96% closing range includes the gap and represents a quick rise in the morning that leveled off but never gave back the gains. The 79% body includes a few tests of the 50d MA in intraday trading, but support held. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) This week marked the end of the first quarter of 2021, a quarter of volatility driven by the retail frenzy around meme stocks, a steepening yield curve caused by inflation fears and the landing of over a trillion dollars of support to the economy. The last few days of the quarter also had its dramas. All eyes were on the ship stuck in the Suez Canal to open the week. Investors were also shocked by a $20b fire sale of positions from Archegos family fund at the end of the previous week and beginning of this week. That nervousness brought the index down on Monday and Tuesday to test the lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. On Wednesday, Biden released his plan to boost the economic recovery through a massive multi-trillion dollar infrastructure investment. That gave the whole market a kick start for the day. Buyers came in and got the index back above the kay moving average lines with a rally on Wednesday to pass the 21d EMA and gap-up on Thursday to pass the 50d MA. The gains Thursday were shared broadly across the market with the S&P 500 (SPX) hitting the milestone of closing above 4000 for the first time. Microsoft made its market influence known this week. On Wednesday, it released news around 3pm that the US Army had agreed to a large purchase of a customized Hololens, an augmented reality device. The news not only sent the Microsoft price soaring, but because of its oversized market cap, the move was visible in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The huge move, that happened within 5 minutes, sold-off for the remaining hour and brought the indexes back down. Even with the sell-off before close on Wednesday, the message was received that big tech was back and ready to continue growth even as investors were looking to value stocks. Thursday all of the tech mega-caps had gains. Both Microsoft and Alphabet had breakouts from bases. The Nasdaq appeared to be back in the game. The Nasdaq advanced +2.60% for the week. The closing range is 99% as the index closed near its high on Friday. Volume was lower, but it's important to note that Nasdaq and US market volume is on a decline from higher-than-average volume in 2020 and early 2021. Comparing volume to the broader US stock market volume, Nasdaq comparatively was higher than the previous week. We've got a higher high and a higher low, after the index tested the lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index has resistance around 13,600 and we'll watch that closely as the higher lows squeeze into an ascending triangle. The S&P 500 has the focus this week since it closed above 4000 after advancing +1.15%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) is attempting to regain its advance with a +1.46% gain this week. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) advanced +0.52% The VIX volatility index closed at its lowest point since before the pandemic with a -8.11% decline. Communications ( XLC ) did not top the sector list for a single day, but it's steady gains throughout the week put it at the top of the weekly chart. Utilities ( XLU ) started the week on top. Investors were nervous on Monday about the lasting impact of the Suez Canal blockage and whether a $20b fire sale of Archegos investments would grow or even expand to other firms. Utilities popped back into the story late on Wednesday when a sudden pop and sell-off in big tech occurred in the final hour. Financials ( XLF ) was also impacted by the Archegos drama on Monday. By Tuesday, the damage was contained and higher treasury bond yields provided a life to the sector, making it a top performer for the day. Technology ( XLK ) got a boost on Wednesday when Microsoft announced news of an augmented reality deal with the US Army. That spike sold off quickly, but the buyers came back in on Thursday, bringing the Technology sector up to second place for the week. Energy ( XLE ) spent most of the week at the bottom of the list. Higher-then-expected demand for oil and gas and a generally positive outlook for economic growth brought the sector gains on Thursday that lifted it from the bottom. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) ended the week as the worst performing sector. The rotation out of staples could continue as investors see consumers return to normal spending habits in a strengthening economic cycle . The 30y treasury bond yield dropped for a second week while the 10y note yield remained about the same. The US 2y note yield advanced, helping the yield curve flatten a bit for the week. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined for the week while Investment Grade Bond (LQD) advanced. The Investment Grade bond prices have been increased for three weeks. The spread between high yield bonds and short term treasury bonds is continuing to tighten. The US Dollar (DXY) remained about flat at a -0.02% decline. The pause in climbing certainly helps with big multinationals, especially big tech, which are impacted by currency fluctuations. Silver (SILVER) declined and Gold (GOLD) advanced for the week. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced despite fluctuating the past few weeks over the Suez Canal drama. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined for the week. All the commodities showed bullish moves on Friday while the entire market rallied. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps Alphabet (GOOGL) led the Communications sector with a +5.18% gain for the week, breaking out of a base forming since mid-February. Microsoft (MSFT) also made a breakout move with a +2.48% gain for the week. Watch these two closely next week even if they are not in your portfolio. Having these breakouts stick is an important indicator for the market. Apple (APPL) and Amazon (AMZN) both had gains of +1.48% and +3.57% respectively. They still have some work to do. Apple needs to rise above the 10w moving average line. Amazon needs to stay above both lines to keep the 10w above the 40w and show an upward trend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. All of them except Exxon Mobil (XOM) had gains for the week. That's positive that investors are no longer taking from either growth or value to invest in the other. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) had the biggest gain with a +3.07% advance. Delta Airlines (DAL) gained +2.45% and Marriott (MAR) gained +0.99%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) spent most of the past two weeks above 0.600 but ended this week at 0.538 as investors became more bullish. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index has also been hovering around neutral but moved back toward greed at the end of the week. The NAAIM exposure index moved down to 52.02. Money managers were reducing positions in the market as of Wednesday when the survey is taken. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday will kick-off the week with Purchasing Managers data for March that is a leading indicator for economic activity. That data will be complemented by Factor Orders data just after market open. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook will be released Tuesday morning. After the market opens, the JOLT Job Openings report for February will be released. Crude Oil Stock data will be released after market close. Wednesday kicks- off with Export, Imports and Trade Balance data. Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. In the afternoon, the FOMC meeting minutes from the meeting a few weeks ago will be released. Thursday brings the weekly Job Claims in the morning. At noon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. On Friday, the producer price index data will be released that gives a view into inflation. Expect the US dollar and Treasury Yields to be impacted. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side A lot of things look great about the market at the end of this week. Thursday ended the week with gains across all major indexes. Those gains held right into the closing bell despite the three day weekend which typically moves investors into a cautious mode. The VIX volatility index dropped to its lowest level in over a year. It closed back within the range of 2019 and early 2020 before the pandemic. Both the Energy and Technology sectors led on Friday. Growth stocks and value stocks ended the week with gains instead of rotating between the two. Yields moving up or down seemed to have less impact on tech mega-caps and growth stocks. The mega-caps also ended the week with solid moves upward. Alphabet and Microsoft broke out of bases which will help carry the Nasdaq to further gains. Tesla reported strong quarterly production and delivery numbers over the weekend which should help it break out on Monday. Volume was lower for the week, but weekly volume has been elevated from the beginning of the year. As rotations subside and volatility gets under control, we should expect trading volume to get lower as investors stop chasing from one sector to the next. The US Dollar and Treasury Yields appear to be leveling off from recent increases. That should help bring back in cautious investors who feared the dollar would rise sharply and eat into valuations of large multinationals. With the yield curve starting to flatten, there will be less worries about soaring interest rates impacting growth stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side President Biden's infrastructure package was a bit surprising for some. The package did include traditional infrastructure spend on roads, airports and the power grid. But it also included a large portion focused on new energy, broadband internet and payments to unions that will be disrupted by some of the changes. The result is that some of the expected investment for the Industrial and Materials sectors is not there. Those sectors barely budged after the infrastructure plans were released. The proposal also comes with a looming tax raise for corporations that is expected to cut into profits as much as 7%. If those tax proposals pass through congress, you can certainly expect the market to reprice the impacted stocks. Although recent economic data has shown inflation under control, there is more and more buzz on the street that prices are going up at the supermarket and at the pump. Some of the traditional leading indicators of inflation may be a little slow to show the sudden surge that's expected in consumer spending. Higher numbers for the producer price indexes could bring back those fears of inflation that were impacting the markets in March. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq stayed in a channel drawn from the March 2020 bottom and broke out of the symmetrical triangle we had drawn on the chart last week. Now as resistance is met at the 13,600 level, the higher lows should squeeze the index and eventually cause a breakout above that level. That's what we will watch for this week. On the positive side, the level we still want to reach is still 13,620.71: The index closed the week very close to its high of 13,487.08. Set a new high for next week to keep the uptrend going. The next line is 13,620.71 which is the high from three weeks ago. But it is also past the area of resistance that the index was rejected on 1/26, 3/2, and 3/16. 14,000 will be the next area of resistance. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. That might be a stretch to get there this week, but keep it in our sites. On the downside, there are several levels to watch: The 50d moving average is at 13,427.76. The 21d exponential moving average is at 13,234.87. Both moving average lanes are key support lines. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,005 for next week. 13,000 has been an area of support on 1/29, 2/23, 3/3. The index moved below that support area again this week, but was able to rise back above it and rally. The low of this past week is 12,922.57. Stay above that price to give us a higher low for this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There were a lot of positive signs by the time this short week of trading closed. But the indexes and indicators here are only one input to the investors outlook. Look at your portfolio or watch lists and see how stocks are acting. Are they breaking out of bases and are the break outs sticking? Or are breakouts failing with prices falling back into the base? How your focus stocks perform will be the final indicator of whether to increase exposure. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
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