Is another bad earnings season upon us? In early February 2023, we outlined how earnings recession was becoming more apparent in the tech sector, with a myriad of companies reporting massive declines in net profit on a yearly basis for 2022. Now, with the upcoming earnings season for the first quarter of 2023, we do not expect the corporate figures to get any better. In fact, we anticipate further declines in corporate profits, more outlook downgrades, and higher operating costs for many tech companies. As a result, we think this season will bring more uncertainty into the market and fortify the notion of unraveling recession in the U.S. economy.
As for the short-term, we are unsure how much higher QQQ can go. Therefore we will pay close attention to the price action and volume. At the same time, we will observe QQQ’s ability to hold above the immediate support at $313.68. It will be bullish if it manages to stay above this level. However, a breakdown below it may indicate a reversal on the horizon; in such case, we will observe Support 1 at $310.08 and its ability to stop a price decline. Regarding the upside, we will watch Resistance 1 and Resistance 2 at $321.51 and $334.42.
Beyond these short-term and medium-term fluctuations, our outlook remains unchanged. With worsening data in the U.S. economy, we expect something to snap down the road, causing QQQ to revisit its 2022 lows. Our assessment comes from the fact that the market is currently pricing in multiple rate cuts by the end of 2023. However, we do not think the FED will be able to deliver them with persistently high inflation; as a matter of fact, even Jerome Powell dismissed any plans for rate cuts in 2023 during his last FOMC press conference. Moreover, as if it was not enough, the median forecast for the FED funds rate is still above the current rate, suggesting that interest rates should be higher than they are right now. Similarly worrying is FED’s unemployment forecast, which implies a recession since, historically, each 1% increase in unemployment was accompanied by one.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of QQQ. Red and green arrows depict the relationship between the price and volume. While the recent drop in volume might suggest a decline in selling pressure (after the selloff between February and March 2023), it can also indicate the evaporation of buyers near the current price levels. In general, declining volume and the rising price is questionable development. Therefore, we will keep an eye on this in the following days to get more clues about the whole picture.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish (weak trend)
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq Composite Index CFD
NASDAQ rally to stall at current highs?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 12920 (stop at 13090)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 4 days.
The 161.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 12304 from 12972 to 12559.
Bespoke support is located at 12277.
Selling spikes offers good risk/reward.
The bias remains mildly bearish but there is scope for a move in either direction at the open.
Our profit targets will be 12510 and 12440
Resistance: 12920 / 12972 / 13360
Support: 12559 / 12305 / 12280
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
March 31 - BTC, SPX, DXY31st of March has consistently been either: a sharp turning point, a spike in trend action or a calling for a long-term trend reversal. S&P 500 and Nasdaq have followed this odd tendency correspondingly. For a few significant reasons below, I anticipate this year's 31st of March will astonish many of us.
Distinct Timing:
Alignment with KEY economic data readings:
--> Core PCE Price Index (MoM) is the reading. CNN on this index: "PCE, specifically the core measurement, is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, since it provides a more complete picture of costs for consumers." Currently, it is undeniably the most significant factor which will drive markets to new equilibriums. Factors including: markets' indecisiveness (particularly large institutions); consistent past increases in the core PCE; and unexpectedly high most recent inflation reading in the UK (actual 10.4 vs expected 9.7) - do not make the next reading seem promising for bulls.
--> Eurozone inflation level will be vital, partly due to the mentioned recent surprise from UK's inflation reading. As this could potentially clarify whether the unexpected reading arose from global or solely UK-related factors.
Date Alignment:
1/ Last day of the month
2/ Last day of the working week (Friday)
3/ And of course, the day is March 31st :)
If you have been following my channel you know how much I love spread graphs. Check out the spread chart's indicators (including 50 SMA, 50 EMA, 200 SMA, and 200 EMA) and its formula below.
Same graph (W):
Same graph (M):
The formula:
CRYPTOCAP:BTC*(TVC:GOLD*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y)*(TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y)+10))^-1
Thanks for your time guys! If not for some comments in my last post, I wouldn't have found an error in the formula! So, please comment with any questions, ideas and opinions.
Financial Crisis 2023 Firstly,
September 2007 - Lehman Brothers collapse
March 2023 - Silicon Valley Bank collapse
Asset correlations (bottom pane):
Gold ( red ) - on a slow rise in 2007, same as today
Dollar strength ( blue ) - bearish in 2007, same as today
Nasdaq (orange) - bearish in 2007, same as today
Indicators' inference :
The top pane shows a logarithmic version of an indicator called MACD leader (zero lag). 2006 - 2007 and 2022 - 2023 have so far been the only years which produce inconclusive monthly signals since 1988.
The middle pane's aim is to signal simultaneous movements of securities and spread graph equations. Each line represents the correlation coefficient between the main chart and a financial instrument. Spread graphs attempt to illustrate peaks in inflows/outflows from equities --> safe heavens through correlation.
Similar to spread graph equations, the idea of accounting for the movement of capital to different assets was applied to make the main chart:
TVC:IXIC*10000000*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+5)*TVC:GOLD)^-1
Finally,
Current Retest(D):
Same chart - Longer Period (3M):
Feel free to drop a question. Thanks for your time!
Rare Tesla Chart Just AppearedA rare perfect fractal chart of Tesla just appeared. In this video, I explain that while it may be bullish in the short term, the long-term chart looks quite ominous.
Link to my TradingView post on Advanced Bull Flag Concepts:
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Earnings recession is becoming more apparentFollowing the FOMC’s rate hike, markets continued to rally yesterday until the closing bell when tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple reported their earnings. Bleak numbers poured cold water on a rally, and in after-market trading, Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 2.5%. However, this move quickly recovered, highlighting the market's growing fragility. With VIX near yearly lows and now evident earnings recession, we will seek a decline in volume accompanying the rising price to suggest a rally’s exhaustion.
During the summer of 2022, we noted that declining corporate earnings and outlook downgrades in 3Q22 and 4Q22 would confirm our bearish thesis about the market progressing deeper into recession. With this being reflected in the data, we will pay very close attention to labor market data, which lags behind other indicators. To further confirm our bearish thesis, we want to see a pick-up in unemployment and small business bankruptcies, which will put the current mainstream narrative about “soft-landing” to the test (together with the FED not cutting rates).
Alphabet - full-year 2022 results.
Net income = $59.97 billion
(vs. net income of $76.03 billion in 2021; -21.1% YoY)
Operating income = $74.84 billion
(vs. $78.71 billion in 2021; -4.9% YoY)
Revenue = $282.83 billion
(vs. $257.63 billion in 2021; +9.8% YoY)
Alphabet disclosed that it expects to incur (in 1Q23) employee severance and related charges of $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion in relation to its layoffs of 12 000 people announced in January 2023. Additionally, it anticipates exit costs in regard to office space reductions of approximately $0.5 billion during that same quarter. Furthermore, the company expects a significant reduction in the depreciation of its equipment and servers throughout the entire year 2023.
Amazon - full-year 2022 results.
Net loss = $-2.7 billion
(vs. net income of $33.4 billion in 2021; -108% YoY)
Operating income = $12.2 billion
(vs. $24.9 billion in 2021; -51% YoY)
Net sales = $514 billion
(vs. $469.8 billion in 2021; +9.4% YoY)
Amazon saw a massive drop in net income (YoY) in 2022, from $33.4 billion to a net loss of $2.7 billion. The company expects its net sales to drop by more than 15% in 1Q23 (vs. the previous quarter) and suffer unfavorable impacts from exchange rates.
Apple - 1st quarter FY2023
Net income = $29.98 billion
(vs. $34.63 billion a year ago; -13.4%)
Net sales = $117.2 billion
(vs. $123.9 billion a year ago; -5.4% YoY)
Operating income = $36.01 billion
(vs. $41.48 billion a year ago; -13.2% YoY)
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. At the moment, the price deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, making a case for the retracement. A breakout below Support 1 will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Contrarily, a breakout above Resistance 1 will be bullish.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of QQQ. The yellow arrow hints at bullish volume growth. A decline in volume accompanying the rising price will hint at declining momentum and potential trend reversal.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq is on the moveUS composite index shows that short term strong economy and inflation would moist the market.
It means short term buying opportunity is ahead right now.
Tech stocks rally may start soon.
My target is 12900and let's forget about the FED for now.
sometimes brave investment gives us a good profit.
Buying NASDAQ at previous swing low.NASDAQ - Intraday - We look to Buy at 12272 (stop at 12200)
Selling pressure from 12744 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 12272.
Intraday signals are far from strong.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 12448 and 12488
Resistance: 12362 / 12500 / 12744
Support: 12272 / 12200 / 11855
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Catching Nasdaq on stem dips.NASDAQ - Intraday - We look to Buy at 12404 (stop at 12293)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 9 days.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
A sequence of intraday higher highs and lows has been posted.
Bespoke support is located at 12383.
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 13347.
Our profit targets will be 12688 and 12738
Resistance: 12700 / 12820 / 13347
Support: 12383 / 12201 / 11845
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
☘️ NASDAQ - 14500 a Doable Target 🎬🍿History is Bullish on Nasdaq:
The Nasdaq-100 index is home to 100 of the largest technology companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It had a miserable year in 2022, declining by 33% as investors trimmed their bets on the high-growth tech sector.
But based on the annual returns of the Nasdaq-100 dating back to 1986, consecutive down years are incredibly rare. In fact, the index has only fallen two years in a row on one occasion -- during the dot-com crash between 2000 and 2002.
While the current environment poses its own unique challenges like red-hot inflation and rapidly rising interest rates, there's a likelihood that, based on history alone, the Nasdaq could be set for a bumper 2023.
That's because the index has delivered an average return of 51% in the first positive year following a loss, and given the rarity of consecutive declines, the odds suggest 2023 is likely to be green. But investors will need to see economic headwinds subside, and there are already some early signs that's happening.
US economy is doing just great and fears of economic troubles in China and Europe are shrinking by the day, despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Technology keeps becoming more dominant in every day life and AI is offering possibilities to everyone..especially the big Nasdaq Giants.
Optimistic and Bullish here, despite the Rate hikes (another 2-maybe 3 small ones)
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
How i called the ATHs:
Nasdaq reversed to bearish, looking short tradeHello traders 👋
According to 1 day chart, Nasdaq index is ready to do it's last downward movement. Hence I've prepared my analysis on how to trade in the bearish market. Many said rise from the previous low point; 11050 indicated beginning of bullish market. On the other hand, I think it is the 4th wave correction. Therefore I will continue to do short for the long term.
A shake-up is needed to turn it into a long-term uptrend.Hello?
Traders, welcome.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a nice day.
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(DXY 1D chart)
It is necessary to check whether movement can be continued in the channel indicated by the ellipse.
If it stays below 101.860, it is expected to energize the investment market.
-------------------------------------------------
(SPX500USD 1D chart)
The key is whether it can rise with support from 4116.0.
If not, you should see if you can keep the price above 4009.5, above the uptrend line.
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(NAS100USD 1D chart)
We are expecting to touch the M-Signal on the 1M chart and decline.
Therefore, it is necessary to check whether it is supported around 12380.4.
If it succeeds in gaining support, it is expected to rise around 12896.2-13231.6.
If not,
1st: 11942.9-12119.2
2nd: 11366.9-11578.2
You need to make sure that it is supported in the 1st and 2nd above.
In order to turn into a long-term uptrend, the price must maintain the price by rising above the HA-Low on the 1M chart and above the M-Signal (MS-Signal) on the 1M chart.
Currently, the HA-Low of the 1M chart and the M-Signal of the 1M chart are reversed.
Therefore, there is a possibility that shaking to switch to regular arrangement may start, so a countermeasure for this is necessary when trading.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** If this chart is shared, you can use the indicators normally.
** The MRHAB-T indicator includes indicators that indicate points of support and resistance.
** Check the formulas for the MS-Signal, HA-Low, and HA-High indicators at ().
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profit or loss can be preserved or additional entry can be made by split trading. This is a short-term investment perspective.)
---------------------------------
Everyone Believes What They Want to BelieveRealty != Belief
The secret to this market is to lower your expectation continually.
Bulls do not realize they are sitting in the largest bull trap ever setup.
Macro bottom still pending... it's more of the same: drop, consolidate, drop.
A wise Bera once said:
Resistance is infinite and unbounded.
When a level is broken, there will always be more resistance higher up.
Support is not though, support is capped at 0.
The Fed's view:
www.federalreserve.gov
What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?
"It would be unprecedented for job vacancies (openings) to decline by a large amount without the economy falling into recession. We are, in effect, saying that something unprecedented can occur."
Lagging Crash
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.
The broader stock market did not begin its crash until a week later.
Everyone initially thought Lehman wasn't a systemic risk.
You say crypto crash can not crash stocks with a LAG?
The doom loop is accelerating.
Few understand this.
Will this week reveal an ongoing earnings recession?On 5th January 2023, we noted that the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel would be bullish for the Nasdaq 100 index in the short term. Quickly after that, NQ1! broke above the resistance and embarked on the longest winning streak since November 2021. This recent move-up has been accompanied by market euphoria and overly bullish calls. Many investors are already dismissing the prospect of recession in 2023 and thinking the bear market is over. However, these calls are likely to turn out to be premature. Therefore, we will pay close attention to earnings reports from various companies. We will seek a decline in corporate profits to confirm our bearish thesis (beyond the short term). In addition to that, we will look for downgrades in future outlook and warnings over the slowing economy. As a result, we expect reality to creep back into the market and drag it lower over time. Accordingly, we maintain our 2023 price target for NQ1! at $10 000.
Big names reporting their earnings this week:
Microsoft
J&J
Verizon
Lockheed MartinRaytheon Technologies
General Electrics
Tesla
AT&T
IBM
Boeing
General Dynamics
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the resistance, followed by the longest winning streak since November 2021.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1! and two simple moving averages. We would like to see the index break below the 50-day SMA to support a bearish thesis. Contrarily, we would like to see the price hold above the 50-day SMA to support a bullish continuation of the rally.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Where are stocks going?I am presenting the difference between SPX (top pane) and SPX/major safe heavens (middle pane; spread graph). The pane below portrays the correlation coefficient (CC) in rsi values between the main spread graph and traditional safe heavens.
Skip to the last paragraph for my forecast speculation if you are familiar with advanced spread graphs!
This graph aims to measure the true nominal & intrinsic value of the U.S.'s largest equity indices (Nasdaq and S&P 500) by pinning their value against historic prices of safer alternative investment instruments, to account for capital outflows to other assets (not just USD or other fiat).
CC - peaks in correlation imply trend reversals, specifically indicating the beginning of capital outflow from safe heavens to equities (and vice versa). Combining this indicator with the RSI (white line) of the spread graph may suggest the potential direction of capital flows.
Forecast:
Bearish signs: break-out of the current interest rate trend (figure below), last decade's heavy use of Quantitative Easing (QE), wars, repetitive waves of Covid, new world order (progressive decline in the importance of western currencies and stock exchanges)
Bullish signs: recent unexpected strength from bulls, successful monetary policies against inflation, persistent adaptation of green & sustainability functioning (in comparison to the world), overall extremely oversold technical indicators
Figure 1:
The CC of interest rates movements with safe heavens indicates a potential direction for equities in general, which matches with the main spread graph (all shown by arrow paths). These predictions align with the outcome of the spread graph's 2004 aggressive interest rate hikes.
In case you would like to utilise the spread graph formula: SP:SPX*TVC:IXIC/(TVC:DXY*10000000000000/FRED:M2SL*NASDAQ:XAU*(SP:SPGSCI-NASDAQ:XAU)/10/(TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+2))
otherwise, zoom out
Thanks for your time!
Who will survive?The balance between SPX, NDX and DJI changes. Some are stronger than others.
If we don't have food on our table and if there is no electricity or internet, who will go buy the new shiny faux bijou?
Meta, Tesla and Google need internet to exist. If push comes to shove, they will be the first to drop.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
SPX, Now 13th Oct low is critical !Taking out 3806.91 minor high puts 13th Oct low (3491.58) in a critical position.
As explained in my previous publications, there was a chance for best case scenario and market bounce at 0.5 Retracement of rally after pandemic low and Bulls, Bottom fisher and Dip Buyers took the chance however, is this best case scenario going to happen? Bulls should pray for market to sustain last created low !
I showed two different yet possible scenarios on the chart:
On the left side of the chart ,shown in green, we have our best case scenario which calls for completion of an ABC form of correction. With yesterday's taking out 3806.91 minor high we have now a proof for termination of last down going wave which is labeled as wave C. If this is going to happen , SPX will see unbelievable upside targets. The key for this scenario is 3491.58 low. As far as index is above this low, market is safe for bulls.
On the right side of the chart, shown in red, we have our terrifying scenario which suggests painful targets for SPX. I am sure that you can see powerful resistances in this chart. Index is below 50,100 and 200 days moving average and also below major down trend line. I intentionally excluded these resistances from best case scenario chart to show how optimism can make us ignore what we should see. Is market able to break all these powerful resistances and continue it's way up to new ATH and unbelievable targets? If not, Market will see very unpleasant, terrifying painful targets.
Macroeconomics, War and energy crisis, Inflation and FED's series of rate hikes do not support best case scenario but market is crazy sometimes. For me and to be in safe side, breaking out mentioned resistances is necessary to be sure about market up trend.
Please keep this golden statement in mind :
" Sometimes best thing to do in market is doing nothing "
Good Luck.
IXIC Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for IXIC is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 10753.57, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 10207.47, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 11521.97, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
No pivot, no easing, only more rate hikes, and painYesterday, the central bank of the United States raised interest rates by 50 basis points. The FED’s chairman reiterated that the monetary policy is not accommodative enough and laid out a path for more increases, with the projection of interest rates above 5% in 2023. Additionally, Jerome Powell stated the FED would not start thinking about cutting rates until its goal of 2% inflation over time is achieved.
That is nothing new to us, as we dismissed the “pivot narrative” several times in the past months. Indeed, we stressed that the terminal rate would go much higher than initially expected and for much longer than originally thought. Unfortunately, we abandoned our price targets for QQQ one day before the meeting.
Despite that, we continue to be bearish on the stock market and maintain our price target for NQ1! at 10 000$. However, as for the QQQ, we will abstain from setting a new price target after the latest abandonment. We will update our thoughts on a new price target soon.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of QQQ. Yellow arrows indicate fake breakouts above the resistance. Interestingly, the second breakout occurred similarly (meaning very quickly, driven by algorithms, and short-lived) to the first one, about which we expressed skepticism.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bearish
Illustration 1.02
For the past month, QQQ constituted a 5% trading range within which it has been moving. We do not expect another breakout to the upside. Contrarily, we expect a breakout below the support level, which will be very bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.