Nasdaq Composite Hyperbolic Growth: 28000 in 2024
Look at this boi, Nasdaq Composite has gone up almost 80% since testing the 50-month moving average in March 2020. This demonstrates how strongly bullish the market fundamentals are, remember Fed confirmed on yesterday 27 Aug 2020 that they will tolerate higher than usual inflation, just to keep the interest rate close to zero! Basically Fed and Donald Trump (he doubtlessly will be reelected) will continue to smash cheap and free money into the American stock market, and with interest rate so low, Americans really have nothing else legitimate enough to invest.
Looking at Nasdaq Composite's performance from 1996 to 2000, the 80% jump since Mar 2020 seems weirdly reminiscent. It confirms that IXIC is going through a similarly Hyperbolic trajectory, which means IXIC will go up faster and faster, corrections will be smaller and quicker to recover, until the 'singularity point' like October 1998 where IXIC just refuses to go down, always up and up, until it sucks most potential investors dry of cash.
Remembering the long term bullish nature of IXIC, the day chart indicates some correction is due soon. The huge bullish run since 23 March 2020 is obviously highly impulsive, so Elliott Wave theory tells us it will very likely reverse around the 1.618 extension of the 19 Feb to 23 Mar correction. Since the 1980s, IXIC has often corrected 15-25% after going up 70-80%.
Nasdaq Composite went up 76.44% from 5 Dec 1994 to 20 May 1996, then it dropped 19.43% in 56 days. I think IXIC will retest the 10000 support again within 2 months, possibly caused by USA election or US-China trade uncertainties. The Christmas season is usually bullish, so we will see 12000 and probably higher again in January 2021.
Nasdaq Composite Index CFD
Regression Trends, Support and ResistanceThe broader Nasdaq Composite Index had a great reversal day, but what comes next? The top 4 market cap players were testing support and resistance lines, indicating indecision on where investors think the market will go. Having one of these make a big move either direction would certainly impact the others and the broader index.
Taking a look at overall market, there is a lot of room to move downward if that's the direction that things take. Even in the shorter term of 1 year, the market is very extended beyond the Regression Trend midpoint. There's plenty of support historically, for the market to take a large correction in the other direction to bring the average growth back to the midpoint. In fact, you can see that as 35y, 5y, 2y regression midpoints converge to nearly the same location.
These regression midpoints aren't perfect, but even adding some +/- error to the locations, it still gives the market a lot of room to move down.
Outcomes could be support near the 1y midpoint where you'd also have 200d support and the pivot point of the previous peak. That would be near a 15% decline.
Beyond that, there is not much support until you get to the bottom of the March crash. So another ~15% drop would be feasible.
2020 already claims 3 of the 20 largest percentage drops in Nasdaq history.
And it's 2020 - it wants to be the best at being the worst!
Tsunami of financial disasters are coming at you! Pretty obvious why the markets are pumping at this moment. One of the reasons; Stockmarkets/investors are speculating on the FED to keep PPPRRRR printing dollars.
The key failure of the masses is this: They assume IF we get a vaccine we can move on and economy is saved?! Well done mr. President.
BUUUZZeRR! It’s not going to happen. Yes, we might get a vaccine for covid-19 but NOT for the real problem.
We are about to clash with a comet and destruction will be beyond imagination. We might be heading into the “bears wet dreams” and the bubble of all the new/old investors will burst.
What is happening at this very moment is; smart money moving out of the market and building short positions.
Sure we might see some more upside. Very hard to predict tops of mass- euphoria. The downfall is going to be painful if your not prepared.
Towards mid September I expect us to hit the top after that there are absolutely to many factors that can trigger depression. That’s right I’m eying a depressing not recession.
You now have the choice to either be A: ignorant and keep staring into those headlights.
Or B: act up as the smart money and make sure to not lose money on this one.
Stay safe out there!
Michiel
Analysis for week 170820 to 210820Good morning superheroes;
I hope you have a wonderful weekend and are all ready to take on new and exciting challenges this week.
First of all, we take a look at Dollar Index. On the weekly chart, we can see it has broken down from the bullish trend line. I expect the price to remain weak and over the upcoming weeks/months, it should fall towards 88.97 to 90.95.
There is also a possibility that it rebounds from here, judging from the double bottom pattern hit it has shown. Let's wait and see if it will break out of the resistance at 93.65, a key level where it is also the meeting point for the weekly chart bullish trend breakdown.
In this regard, I will not short nor long. If I have to long, I will wait for 93.65 to breakout and to short, I will wait for the double bottom support at 92.77 to rebound with bullish signal.
I expect the next two months to be slow moving as we continue to see consolidation in the US indices and many pairs of currencies. This "brewing" could mean a possible break up from the resistance to a higher high or a breakdown for a correction.
Summary :
How will the NASDAQ perform ?
Is Kiwi dollars heading further south ?
AUDUSD is still strong, dont sell all positions
What is EURUSD telling us about the dollar ?
GOING FORWARDSeemingly having a wonderful move to start the week. Hope to see this moving well forward in the days to come.
GREAT POSIBILITYI hope this positive movement could continue in the coming days. Looking forward for a well bullish this week.
Tencent & Youzan Position UpdatesThe remaining of three trades taken here remain open prior to the open of Asian equity market's tomorrow. I've gotten some questions regarding my Chinese holdings, and the Trump ban on Tik-tok. I stand behind these calls and will be holding both and will provide updates on partial closes when taken.
Nasdaq eliminó residuos COVID / Nasdaq Erased any COVID trash
Podriamos decir que cualquier retroceso nos llevaría a 10000 pts y aun así seguir optimistas sobre los recursos tecnológicos.
En vista técnica, Nasdaq ha borrado cualquier residuo de Covid.
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We could say that any retrace in movements could lead us back to 10000 points and still being optimist about Technology resources.
In a technical view, Nasdaq erased any track of past february, march prices.