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Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Daily Market Update for 7/6Summary: Investors' reaction to the Fed's meeting minutes from June resulted in a choppy indecisive day for the market. The US Dollar continued to climb against the Euro. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 6, 2022 Facts: +0.35%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 58%, Body: 12% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, good closing range Bad: Indecisive finish, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Indecisive spinning-top candle, thing green body in middle of two long wicks Advance/Decline: 0.54, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (+0.23%), RUT (-0.79%), VIX (-2.94%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.04%) and Technology (XLK +0.86%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.33%) and Energy (XLE -1.71%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors' reaction to the Fed's meeting minutes from June resulted in a choppy indecisive day for the market. The US Dollar continued to climb against the Euro. The Nasdaq rose by +0.35%, helped mostly by big tech. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has a thin 12% green body in the middle of equal upper and lower wicks. The candle represents a spinning top that indicates indecision in the market, a perfect way to explain today's session. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps pulled back with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining by -0.79%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +0.36% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.23%. Seven of the eleven S&P sectors gained. The defensive sector of Utilities (XLU +1.04%) was at the top, followed by the growth sector of Technology (XLK +0.86%), another representation of the mix of sentiment in the market. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.33%) and Energy (XLE -1.71%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Energy stocks continue to fall along with oil prices. The Services PMI for June was higher than expected. The 52.3 reading exceeded the 51.2 consensus forecast, showing more activity in Services than expected. JOLTs Job Openings were also higher than expected, coming in at 11.3 million compared to the expected 11 million. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose another +0.52%. The last time the index was this high was in 2002. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all moved higher today. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil dropped to $98.73 per barrel. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -2.94%. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.840. The CNN Fear & Greed index hasn't moved for a few days and is still in Extreme Fear. Of the big six mega-caps, only Tesla (TSLA) declined, falling by -0.57%. Microsoft (MSFT) had the biggest gain among the group, advancing by +1.28% and closing above its 50d MA and 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOG) also closed above the two key moving average lines, rising by +1.16% today. Pfizer (PFE) was the top mega-cap for today, gaining +2.15%. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) continue to be the bottom two mega-caps as the price of oil drops. They lost -1.32% and -1.80% today. The Daily Update Growth List was mostly decliners today. The best advance was by Beyond Meat (BYND) which rose by +6.03%. The biggest declines in the list were Chinese Stocks, with Futu Holdings leading the pack, declining by -11.02% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get more labor data tomorrow at 8:15a with the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for June. That comes before the weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30a. Imports/Exports and the Trade Balance data for May will also be published. Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose in a choppy session to close above the 21d exponential moving average line. If the one-day trend line continues into Thursday, we can expect a +1.02% gain. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 6/16 low point to a -0.47% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Fed minutes from June confirmed a very hawkish Fed that wants to act quickly before inflation becomes entrenched in the outlook for the public. On one hand, it means more rate hikes into 2023 are very possible. On the other hand, we can expect inflation to top at some point and start to come down. The two sentiments caused a mix of reactions today which could continue into the next Fed meeting at the end of this month. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/5Summary: The Euro fell sharply and Oil plunged to nearly $100 a barrel on fears of recession. Growth stocks rose as investors price in a possible reaction from the Fed to soften the landing for the economy. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 5, 2022 Facts: +1.75%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 87% Green Good: Closing range, big green candle on higher volume Bad: Lower low, close below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Mostly green body with a small lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.15, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.16%), DJI (-0.42%), RUT (+0.79%), VIX (+3.15%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.32%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.24%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -3.41%) and Energy (XLE -3.97%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Euro fell sharply and Oil plunged to nearly $100 a barrel on fears of recession. Growth stocks rose as investors price in a possible reaction from the Fed to soften the landing for the economy. The Nasdaq rose by +1.75% with volume higher than the previous day. The closing range of 100% comes above a thick green body covering 87% of the candle. The small lower wick, formed in a dip just after open that set the daily low lower than the previous day. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The results weren't as great for the other indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.42% as defensive and cyclical stocks took a hit on the recession fears. The S&P 500 (SPX) held onto a gain of +0.16% thanks to the big six mega-caps. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rose by +0.79%. The VIX Volatility Index increased by +3.15%. Only the three growth sectors gained while the other eight S&P sectors declined. Communications (XLC +2.32%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.24%) were the top two sectors. Utilities (XLU -3.41%) and Energy (XLE -3.97%) had the worst declines. Factory Orders for May grew more than expected. Orders for the month grew by 1.6% over the previous month compared to the expectation of 0.5%. June PMI data in Europe was also higher than expected. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +1.28%, mostly impacted by the Euro dropping in value. US 30Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasury Yields declined with the 10Y yield dipping below the 2Y yield again. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Brent Oil dipped to $100 a barrel before closing the day at $101.70. Both Silver and Gold as well as the commodities all fell sharply. The put/call ratio fell to 0.766. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Extreme Fear. All of the big six mega-caps gained today. Meta (FB) rose by +5.10%, topping the list of six, but failing to rally above its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all rose above their 21d EMA lines. Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon were the top three in the broader mega-cap list. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobile (XOM) were at the bottom of the list, losing -2.63% and -3.13% in their value as the price of Oil plunged. The Daily Update Growth List was mostly green today. Peloton (PTON) had the biggest gain, rising by +14.02%. There were ten stocks on the list that rose by more than 10%. Only four stocks declined. Niu Technologies (NIU) had the worst decline, falling by -4.92%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data for June will be published in the morning after the market opens. We will also get the JOLTs Job Openings for May. Those together with the Fed Meeting minutes in the afternoon will fuel more speculation on possible Fed moves beyond this month's expected 75-basis point rate hike. After the market closes, we will get the weekly API Crude Oil Stock numbers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq started the day with a decline, but then rose throughout the day to finish just below the 21d EMA. If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, that would mean a +3.46% advance. The trend line from the 6/16 low points to a -0.56% decline for Wednesday. If the index returns to the 5-day trend line, that would mean a -3.04% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a nice start to the short week for the Nasdaq. However, the gains in growth stocks among losses everywhere else are all based on anticipation of a more dovish Fed facing a potential recession. Meeting minutes from the last Fed meeting will be available on Wednesday which will drive more speculation in either direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/1Summary: The first day of the second half of the year saw markets rise after dipping in the morning. However defensive stocks still lead with the Utilities sector on top. Treasury yields fell throughout the week, falling again on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 1, 2022 Facts: +0.90%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 58% Green Good: High closing range, long lower wick Bad: Lower high, volume lower on gain Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Half green body above long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.25, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.06%), DJI (+1.05%), RUT (+1.16%), VIX (+3.11%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +2.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.84%) at the top. Materials (XLB +0.71%) and Technology (XLK +0.23%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The first day of the second half of the year saw markets rise after dipping in the morning. However defensive stocks still lead with the Utilities sector on top. Treasury yields fell throughout the week, falling again on Friday. The Nasdaq rose by +0.90%. Volume was much lower than the previous three days. The 58% green body sits above a long lower wick and ends with a 98% closing range for the day. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes, gaining by +1.16%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.06% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +1.05%. The VIX Volatility Index was up by +3.11% All eleven S&P sectors rose. Utilities (XLU +2.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.84%) were the top two sectors. Materials (XLB +0.71%) and Technology (XLK +0.23%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was 53.0. It was expected higher at 54.9. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.36%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields fell. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. The gap between High Yield Corporate Bonds and short-term Treasury Bonds continued to widen. Brent Oil rose to $110 a barrel. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Extreme Fear. Four of the big six mega-caps gained. Microsoft (MSFT) rose by +1.07% to close above its 21d EMA. The biggest gain of the day goes to Amazon (AMZN) which advanced by +3.15%. Meta (FB) had the biggest loss, declining by -0.76%. Amazon also topped the broader mega-cap list followed by Coca-Cola (KO) which rose by +2.34%. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) were at the bottom of the list, falling by -5.81% and -4.20%. The best stock in the Daily Update Growth List was Etsy (ETSY) which gained a huge +9.02%. Nvidia was at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Monday for the Fourth of July Holiday. Tuesday will start off the week with Factory Orders data for May. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq traded below the 21d EMA for the last four days. Today's brief rally at open turned into a sell-off and then a steady gain through the rest of the day. If the index follows the one-day trend line, that would end near the trend line from the 6/16 low and result in a +1.16% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a -3.24% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Have a wonderful Fourth of July weekend! Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Tech Just Made a Major Trend ReversalThis chart shows that there was a major trend reversal in the relative performance between Nasdaq stocks (QQQ) and S&P 500 stocks (SPY). In May, the QQQ/SPY performance ratio reached an extremely significant bottom. It reached the 55-month EMA (orange line), which is also the base of the monthly EMA exp ribbon. Chartists use this base to detect significant bottoms. The fact that QQQ/SPY cleanly landed on this base and has since then formed a trend line upward means that there is a very high probability that tech and growth companies are about to outperform companies in the S&P 500. In fact, we are already seeing quite a few IPO companies breaking out. The trend line (white line) is about to force the QQQ/SPY relative performance ratio above its displaced EMA (yellow line). A displaced moving average (DMA) is a moving average that has been adjusted forward or back in time in an attempt to better forecast trends. Chartists often use the crossover of the displaced EMA as confirmation of a trend reversal. Once QQQ/SPY crosses above this line and it becomes support, the trend reversal will be confirmed on the daily chart. Further confirming this trend reversal is the short derivative, SQQQ. Market participants buy SQQQ either to short QQQ or to hedge against losses while also holding QQQ. Since May, there has been less and less volume in SQQQ. This shows that fewer and fewer market participants are opening new short positions against tech and growth. Meanwhile, the price of SQQQ continued to move to the upside. The price of SQQQ is now being resisted by the 55-week EMA. This fact coupled with the price-volume divergence is sending an ominous signal for those who are still short in tech. Since SQQQ is historically over-extended to the upside, the slightest of bullish signals for tech and growth stocks could result in a major short squeeze. (See chart below) It is therefore quite dangerous right now to open new short positions against growth and tech companies. IPO and Biotech stocks have already broken out to the upside. Commodities, including energy, are breaking down, which in turn shows that the inputs of inflation are cooling down. The charts show that the Fed will not be as aggressive as many analysts expect. Charts never lie, analysts do. Unless a black swan event occurs, it is quite likely that the Nasdaq 100 has put in a significant market bottom.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by SpyMasterTrades
29
Daily Market Update for 6/30Summary: Markets closed the worst first semester in over 50 years with another decline, falling on concerns over economic growth and corporate debt concerns. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 30, 2022 Facts: -1.33%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 57%, Body: 6% Red Good: Closing range above 50% Bad: Lower high, lower low, lower close, on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Spinning top candle signals indecision Advance/Decline: 0.57, almost two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.88%), DJI (-0.82%), RUT (-0.66%), VIX (+1.95%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.11%) and Industrials (XLI +0.31%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.47%) and Energy (XLE -2.11%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets closed the worst first semester in over 50 years with another decline, falling on concerns over economic growth and corporate debt concerns. The Nasdaq finished lower by -1.33%. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day. The candle has a thin red body in between a long upper wick and an even longer lower wick. The candle is a spinning top that signals indecision in the market. The lower wick came during a sell-off just after the market opened. The index recovered, but not enough to regain all the losses. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.88%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -0.82%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.66%. The VIX Volatility index rose by +1.95%. Four of the eleven S&P sectors gained mostly defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +1.11%) and Industrials (XLI +0.31%) were the best two sectors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.47%) and Energy (XLE -2.11%) were at the bottom of the list. Core PCE Price Index data grew 4.7% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. That was less than the expected 4.8% and 0.4%. Personal Spending (MoM) grew by only 0.2% compared to an expectation of 0.4% and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index also fell short, registering at 56.0 instead of the expected 58.0. So inflation may be tapering, but spending is also cooling. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by -0.34%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasuries all declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bonds continue to diverge from Treasury bond prices, signaling the concern over corporate debt. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices are tracking along with Treasuries. Brent Oil dropped to $108.42 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.996. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 30.66 from 19.86 the previous week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead ISM Manufacturing data will be released in the morning after the market opens, giving a heads up on economic demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq almost 3% after the market opened but regained some of the losses, resulting in an intra-day trend line that slopes upward. If the index returns to the trend line from the 6/16 low, that would require a +3.31% gain for Friday. The one-day trend line points to a +1.82% gain. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.51% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a choppy session as investors close out the first half of the year. Economic data in the morning didn't help paint a solid picture for economic direction and investors sided on the fear side, selling growth and buying defensive stocks. Let's hope for a better second half of the year. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq 100 - Headed to new lowsJust 24 hours ago, we turned again bearish on the Nasdaq 100 index, which was quickly followed by a selloff of more than 3%. We also set price targets for NQ1! at 11 500 USD and 11 000 USD. We maintain those price targets as we remain bearish on the U.S. economy. That is because we think more rate hikes and economic tightening will drag the stock market to new lows. Additionally, the next wave of selling will likely experience even faster acceleration than the previous one; therefore, we voice caution for investors. We will monitor the volatility for more clues; ideally, we would like to see a bounce up above 30 USD. Illustration 1.01 Yesterday, we pointed to the retracement (toward the 20-day SMA) shown above. We noted that this retracement acted as a natural correction of a downtrend and the selling pressure was likely to resume soon. Moving averages continue to indicate the downtrend. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral/slightly bearish. Stochastic turned bearish again. MACD is turning bearish too. DM+ and DM- performed bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels for NQ1!. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
10
Daily Market Update for 6/29Summary: GDP for Q1 was revised lower while investors are trying to calculate what possible moves the Fed will make to combat a recession. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 29, 2022 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 69%, Body: 11% Green Good: Closing range above 40% Bad: A/D ratio, lower high and low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: On neck candle where close is near a previous day which was long red (continuation candle) Advance/Decline: 0.42, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.07%), DJI (+0.27%), RUT (-1.12%), VIX (-0.71%) Sector List: Health (XLV +0.87%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.72%) and Energy (XLE -3.48%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview GDP for Q1 was revised lower while investors are trying to calculate what possible moves the Fed will make to combat a recession. The Nasdaq declined by -0.03%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The on-neck candle has a thin green body that opens and closes near yesterday's close, signaling a continuation in a downtrend. The continuation will be confirmed if tomorrow's low breaks today's low. The closing range of 69% comes above a longer lower wick which formed right at the open of the market. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) held onto gains for the day, rising by +0.27%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by only -0.07% while the Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -1.12%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -0.71%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Health (XLV +0.87%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) led the gaining sectors. Materials (XLB -0.72%) and Energy (XLE -3.48%) had the biggest losses for the day. Energy followed Brent Oil prices lower. GDP growth for Q1 was revised to -1.6% compared to the previous calculation of -1.5%. GDP Price Index Data was also revised, rising to 8.3% from the previous measure of 8.1%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.59%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all moved lower. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil prices declined by -1.63% to $111.69 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 1.26. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Extreme Fear range. Four of the big six mega-caps gained today. Meta (FB) had the biggest gain of the six, advancing by +2.03%. Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined by -1.79% and -0.28% respectively. Meta was the top gainer in the broader mega-cap list as well. The biggest loser in the list was Exxon Mobil (XOM), which declined by -3.69%. Digital Turbine (APPS) received some positive reviews from analysts, helping it top the Daily Update Growth List by gaining +5.76%. At the bottom of the list was Lemonade (LMND) which lost -7.28% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Our next look at inflation comes in the morning with the release of the PCE Price Index and Personal Spending data for May. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for Jun will be released after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped after the open but then recovered and traded in a tight range the rest of the day, closing near yesterday's close. If the index returns to the trend line from the 6/16 low, that would mean a +3.28% advance. The five-day trend line points to a +0.88% gain for Thursday. The one-day trend line is flat and points to a +0.2% gain for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market continues to show uncertainty over future economic growth. More companies are beginning to scale back labor and purchases, adding more worries to the list. That's all bad news, but now it also has some analysts predicting a 2023 rate cut from the Fed to fight against recession. Although Treasury bond prices rose, Corporate junk bond prices declined, signaling a move to safe-havens. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
IXIC (NASDAQ) - June 29hello? Traders, welcome. By "following", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Like". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (IXIC (Nasdaq) 1M Chart) The 11167.51-11490.19 section is the boundary between an uptrend and a downtrend in the long term. (1W chart) The overall support section is 11167.51-12131.13. However, it can be divided into sections 11167.51-11490.19 and 11805.0-12131.13. If it crosses around the 11167.51-11490.19 section, it is expected to form a bottom section. If support is found in the 11805.0-12131.13 section, it is expected to continue the upward trend from a mid- to long-term perspective. (1D chart) The 11167.51-11490.19 section mentioned in the 1W chart refers to the maximum section 10492.50-11490.19. You need to wiggle up and down to form a floor. This oscillation forms a bottom as the period of volatility is shortened and the movement emerges within a certain sideways interval. However, there must be movement above 10492.50. ------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. Therefore, it is important to be aware that the indicator will move accordingly as price and volume move. However, for the sake of convenience, we are talking in reverse for the interpretation of the indicator. ** The MRHAB-T indicator used in the chart is an indicator of our channel that has not been released yet. ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator disclosed by oh92. (Thanks for this.) ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee a profit or loss in investment. (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profit and loss can be preserved or additional entry can be made through split trading. It is a short-term investment perspective.) ---------------------------------
TVC:IXIC
by readCrypto
Daily Market Update for 6/28Summary: Consumer Confidence data shocked investors as it hit a 16-month low and raised worries over slower economic growth. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 28, 2022 Facts: -2.98%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 79% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Drop below 21d EMA, higher volume, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Huge red body below a long upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.26, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.01%), DJI (-1.56%), RUT (-1.86%), VIX (+5.23%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.70%) and Utilities (XLU -0.37%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.00%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer Confidence data shocked investors as it hit a 16-month low and raised worries over slower economic growth. The Nasdaq fell by -2.98% with higher volume than the previous day. The 79% red body is below a long upper wick which formed right at the open before the economic data was available. The market sold off the rest of the day, leaving the Nasdaq with a 1% closing range. There were four declining stocks for every 1 advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the next worst-hit index, falling by -2.01%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -1.86%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed the day -1.56% lower. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +5.23%. Only one of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Energy (XLE) followed oil prices higher and closed up by +2.70%. The worst two sectors for today were Technology (XLK -3.00%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%). CB Consumer Confidence came in at 98.7, lower than the forecast of 110.4. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed much higher demand than expected with inventories falling by -3.799 million barrels compared to the expectation of -0.110 million barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to +0.52%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved opposite of Treasuries, declining for the day. Brent Oil rose to $113.54 a barrel. The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.810. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the edge of Extreme Fear. All big six mega-caps declined. Meta (FB) had the biggest decline, falling by -5.20%. Apple (AAPL) had the smallest decline, but still lost -2.98% of its value today. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the broader mega-cap list, advancing by +2.77% and +1.61%. Nvidia (NVDA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, falling by -5.26%. The entire Daily Update Growth List declined today. Twitter (TWTR) held up the best, losing only -1.02% while much of the declined by more than 5%. Peloton (PTON) had the biggest decline, losing -8.62% and landing at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead An update on GDP numbers for Q1 will be released in the morning. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 9:00 am. Crude Oil Inventories get a weekly update after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq fell back below the 21d EMA. If the index would return to the trend line from the 6/16 low, that would require a +4.53% gain. The gain required to get back to the five-day trend line is only slightly better, requiring a +3.69% gain. If the one-day trend line were to continue into Wednesday, that would mean another -4.14% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Big tech and growth stocks took another hit as Consumer Confidence dips on inflation worries. The US Dollar's continued strength relative to other currencies is also a headwind for large multinationals who need to repatriate a large portion of their revenues, bringing the forecast for top line and bottom line performance down. The lower market outlook for US companies is reflected in the widening gap between Corporate bond yields and Treasury bond yields. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq 100 - A fake rally or a genuine one? On 21st June 2022, we abandoned our short-term bearish bias on the Nasdaq 100 index. Since then, the index has grown approximately 8%. However, we are again slowly turning bearish on the index as we think the current pricing starts to be attractive for short trade (re)entry. Despite that, we remain cautious and abstain from setting a price target for NQ1!. We will monitor the ability of NQ1! to stay above/below its 20-day SMA. Fundamental factors The negative factors like higher interest rates and economic tightening continue to persist. Moreover, in our opinion, these factors are poised to worsen as the FED officials are set to pursue more rate hikes and shrink the balance sheet. As a result, we expect that to drag the Nasdaq 100 index lower. Illustration 1.01 The price retraced toward its 20-day SMA, representing a downtrend correction. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bullish. DM+ and DM- performed a bullish crossover. The ADX contains a relatively low value, suggesting the trend is very weak or neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for NQ1!. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
11
Daily Market Update for 6/27 Summary: After one of the best weekly gains of the year, the index kicked this week off with a pullback. Growth stocks led stocks lower, but small caps held onto gains for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 27, 2022 Facts: -0.72%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 20%, Body: 72% Red Good: Stay above 21d EMA, higher high, higher low, volume lower on decline Bad: Closing range Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick red body between small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.78, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.30%), DJI (-0.20%), RUT (+0.34%), VIX (-1.03%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.93%) and Utilities (XLU +0.81%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.95%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.05%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After one of the best weekly gains of the year, the index kicked this week off with a pullback. Growth stocks led stocks lower, but small caps held onto gains for the day. The Nasdaq declined by -0.72% after gaining +7.49% last week. Volume was much lower than Friday's 80% surge in volume. The 73% red body sits below a tiny upper wick and slightly longer lower wick. The index started the day with gains, but then moved lower, ending with a closing range of 18%. There were more declining than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) held onto gains for the day, advancing by +0.34%. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed -0.30% lower and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.20%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -1.03%. Only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Energy (XLE +2.93%) and Utilities (XLU +0.81%) were the top two sectors. Communications (XLC -0.95%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.05%) had the largest declines. Durable Goods Orders in May were higher than expected, rising 0.7% month-over-month compared to the expectation of 0.1%. Pending Home Sales for May were expected to decline by -3.7% but instead rose by 0.7%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by -0.17%. US 30Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil rose by +2.36% and topped $110 a barrel again after new sanctions against Russia were proposed. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.761. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is back in the Fear range after being in Extreme Fear early last week. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index dropped to 19.86 last week. All big six mega-caps declined today. Of the six, only Meta (FB) is below its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOG) is the only of the big six above both the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Exxon Mobile (XOM) was the top mega-cap of the day, gaining by +2.45% as oil prices rose again. Amazon (AMZN) was at the bottom of the broader mega-cap list, declining by -2.78%. Most of the Daily Update Growth List declined today, but there were some gainers. RobinHood (HOOD) had the best gain, advancing by +14.00% after an upgrade by Goldman Sachs. Sea Limited (SE) was at the bottom of the growth list with a -6.74% decline today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead CB Consumer Confidence for June will publish after the market opens. We will also get the Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories for May. Later in the afternoon, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will publish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied in the first few minutes of the market but then faded the rest of the day. The low held well above the 21d EMA. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would meet up with the trend line from the 6/16 low and result in a +1.92% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line leads to a -0.32% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After the massive volume on Friday and the weekly gains of over 7%, it's not a huge concern if the market pulls back a bit. The low of the day is well above the low of last Friday and volume was lower as the index declined. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Here's Why the Tech-Led Selloff is Likely Over (for now)In this post, I will attempt to provide evidence to show why the tech-led selloff is likely to be over (for now). I will use the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and its inverse derivative, SQQQ, as my argument's basis. The inverse (short) ETF of the Nasdaq, SQQQ, has never closed a weekly candle above the Leading Span B of the Ichimoku Cloud (pink line in chart). Last week and the previous week, the weekly candle was very strongly resisted at this level. Now, the weekly and monthly momentum oscillators started to move in the opposite direction. This will not only make it much harder for SQQQ to pierce the line, but it could also result in SQQQ plummeting quickly, and therefore QQQ and the Nasdaq rebounding quickly. For comparison, many data points are covered in this chart, and there is a high statistical probability that the Nasdaq has bottomed. Not even during the peak fear of COVID-19, when the global economy shut down and governments feared millions of deaths, did SQQQ pierce the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. In December 2018 when the Fed was starting to rapidly roll off assets on its balance sheet and was raising interest rates, SQQQ still did not pierce the cloud. This fear is very similar to today's fear. Even further back, not even during the major flash crash in 2015 or on Black Monday in 2011 when the market crashed did SQQQ pierce the cloud. Today, hardly anyone remembers these episodes in stock market history. Similarly, in ten years or so, few people (except maybe those who sold all their positions at the market bottom) will remember what happened in May 2022. The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to nearly 10 in May 2022, meaning almost 90% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the COVID market crash. The NDTH has never dropped below 15 except during significant bottoms on the Nasdaq. There are many other examples in which the charts suggest, with high probability data, that we just experienced a significant bottom on the Nasdaq 100. (Eg. The Nasdaq 100 was supported on the monthly base line, the monthly candle is extremely bullish, the monthly EMA ribbon of the QQQ/SPY ratio chart strongly held the outperformance trend in place, inflation and interest rate charts are cooling. Although this may be a significant bottom, it does not mean a years-long bull span is ahead. Rather the charts suggest the panic selling has ended for at least the short to intermediate-term. To be fair, some charts suggest that the QQQ/SPY outperformance trend could be nearing the end of its decades-long run. (Credit to @Breakout_Charts for identifying this) If this occurs, then it could be the start of a new cycle, or even super cycle, whereby the Nasdaq underperforms for years. Finally, a point about market psychology. Bottoms occur when 'extreme fear' turns into just 'fear' (yes, there's actually an indicator that measures this). That indicator has moved significantly from 'extreme fear' towards 'fear'. With this said, there might be a lot of people who might comment on this post and say scary-sounding things about the state of the economy or stock market. If none of these fears existed among market participants, we would never even have gotten to this bottom. Never sell because of fear alone. Not financial advice. As always anything can happen. Just my thoughts. Leave a like if this was helpful and you'd like me to post more analyses. Please feel free to comment below if you have additional thoughts.
NASDAQ:SQQQEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
5
The end of MMTThis is quite symbolic graph comparing NASDAQ Composite Index to the interest rates since the end of gold standard in USA in 1971 and beginning of the Modern Monetary Theory where FED economists thought country can't bankrupt because always more money can be printed. Each time since 1971 when there was a crisis and stock market going down the best solution was QE (quantitative easing) to flood economy with more printed money, each time however decreasing the living standards for people because of inflation . And here we are now when the rates are nearly zero and we are facing next big crisis, but first time since 1970's according to MMT the central bank can't lower interest rates because we are already at the bottom, there is no speace for easing. How this will end? Nothing good is waiting for us in the nearest future in my opinion. There is high inflation and to stop it the interest rates would have to be much higher, even double digits in the US and Europe but central banks won't like to do this because the countries have huge debts and high interest rates means they could just go bankrupt (which would be the best option - let it bankrupt and clear this economy). I think hitting the ground will be very hard.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by UnknownUnicorn29290293
Nasdaq 100 - A new low confirms that downtrend will continueToday, the Nasdaq 100 index erased its gains from the preceding day, hitting all our previous price targets for NQ1! and QQQ. Therefore, we would like to update our thoughts on the index. We remain bearish due to fundamental factors pointing to a strong recession. However, technical factors also support this pessimistic thesis. Due to that, we would like to set a new price target for NQ1! at 10 500 USD and 10 000 USD. We would also like to set a new price target for QQQ at 265 USD and 260 USD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 Moving averages continue to confirm the downtrend. Although volume declines slightly, we will pay close attention to it. If volume continues to fall further, it might foreshadow an upcoming “bear market rally.” However, if the support is broken, then the selloff is likely to accelerate. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
6
Nasdaq100 The Nasdaq100 NASDAQ:NDX couldn’t hold above the support levels mentioned in our last report at 11376 points and opened the week with a gap below the significant 50%Fib. Level to open at 11472 points signaling that the bears are controlling the market backed by the bad news of the economy, then bears confirmed their control after the FED rate hike of 0.75 % last Wednesday to raise the interest rate to 1.75% and that will be reflected and affecting the earning results of the companies next month, breaking the 200EMA this week and closing below this level at 11265 points is the first confirmation of beginning a bear market on the medium term and may be the beginning of a downtrend on longer term. The NASDAQ:NDX may witness a rebound to test the level of 11376 again and failing to penetrate this level or forming a lower high before even testing this level will be the second bearish signal for the index and that will lead the NASDAQ:NDX to more losses and we may witness panic selloff sessions, especially if the NASDAQ:NDX break the 10600 points level which is the most important and significant level on the medium term. Investors with long positions are advised to use a disciplined risk management tools and activate the stop loss with all trades firmly Investors with short positions are advised to use just 30% of their cash and use the trailing stop and the protective stop strategy NASDAQ:NDX TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ AMEX:PSQ NASDAQ:SQQQ AMEX:SPY SP:SPX AMEX:SPXS TVC:DJI AMEX:SPY AMEX:DIA AMEX:DXD AMEX:DOG NASDAQ:IXIC
NASDAQ:NDX
by IsmailAbdulMeguid
Daily Market Update for 6/17Summary: Big tech and growth stocks recovered some of the heavy losses from Thursday's selling. The bounce comes at the end of one of the worst weeks in the market since the start of the pandemic. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 17, 2022 Facts: +1.43%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 65%, Body: 41% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, closing range good Bad: A/D ratio, long upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Small body under a longer upper wick, short lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.32, three declining for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.22%), DJI (-0.13%), RUT (+0.96%), VIX (-5.52%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +1.43%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.09%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.93%) and Energy (XLE -5.47%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech and growth stocks recovered some of the heavy losses from Thursday's selling. The bounce comes at the end of one of the worst weeks in the market since the start of the pandemic. The Nasdaq rose by +1.43%. Volume was at its highest since March. The rally reached the intraday high and then subdued, leaving behind a longer upper wick and a 65% closing range over a 41% green body. The gains were not broadly shared. For every advancing stock, there were three declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.96%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by just +0.22% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.13%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -5.52% but remains elevated. Only five of the S&P 500 sectors gained. Communications (XLC +1.43%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.09%) were the top gainers, while Utilities (XLU -0.93%) and Energy (XLE -5.47%) had the biggest declines. Industrial Production for May grew by only 0.2% compared to the expectation of 0.4%. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY) rising by +0.82%. US30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil fell sharply to $111.43 a barrel. The fall in oil prices sent the Energy (XLE) sector lower. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum were all lower for the day. The put/call ratio rose to 1.24, another high reading at the close. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM Money Manager Index fell to 32.18 from 50 last week. All of the big six mega-caps gained Friday. Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.47% for the day, beating the other five. Microsoft (MSFT) had the smallest gain but still rose by +1.09%. The big six topped the broader mega-cap list along with Nvidia (NVDA) which gained by +1.79% today. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) which fell by -4.57% and -5.77%. Growth stocks did well today. The Daily Update Growth List has only three declining stocks. The biggest gain was by Enphase (ENPH) which rose by +8.94%. Just behind it was another new energy stock, Solar Edge (SEDG) which climbed by +8.44%. UP Fintech (TIGR) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -4.03%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday. On Tuesday morning, we will get the Existing Home Sales data for May. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened with a whipsaw action in the morning before climbing to the intraday high in the early afternoon. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, we can expect a +1.35%. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -0.75% decline. A return to the trend line from the 6/2 high would mean a -4.19% decline to start the short week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The gain on high volume is positive for the Nasdaq, but it was confined to a small percentage of stocks in the index. We need those gains to be shared more broadly across the index to build support for further improvements. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
NASDAQ : IXIC to bounce back Quickly to be in Parallel ChannelI'm expecting some bounce back in NASDAQ:IXIC as per my Technical Analysis. It has moved out of Parallel Channel which it was following since start of this year. It is currently following a downward trendline. On Upside, it can touch levels of 11384 really quick, as bounce from current levels would be sharp. Chances of fall looks bleak, but if it does then it should follow downward parallel channel and as per Fibonacci Retracement it should touch levels of 10268 not before July 29th. Goodtime to put money in Quality Megacap stocks of NASDAQ like NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:INTU .
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by simplyansh
Nasdaq 100 - Institutions sell their assets at a record pace!After the bear market rally, the Nasdaq 100 index made a new low in tandem with our expectations. Currently, the price of the Nasdaq 100 index exhibits rounding on the hourly chart. We will pay close attention to this development and volume levels, especially as it gets closer to the FOMC. Further, we expect the FED to worsen the economic situation, eventually culminating in a stronger selloff. Ahead of the FOMC and throughout it, we will seek declining volume accompanying the rising price of NQ1!. That will be a bearish sign of a faltering rally (in today's price). Overall, we maintain a bearish outlook on the Nasdaq 100 index. Our new price target for NQ1! is 11 250 USD and 11 000 USD. Our new price target for QQQ is 275 USD and 270 USD. Fundamental factors News outlets report that institutions are selling their assets at a record pace. Today, the FED is likely to raise interest rates by 75-100 bps. If it proceeds with 100bps, then that would be the biggest rate hike since the 1990s. We expect this to weigh on the economy and drag it lower. Additionally, we expect the same from the reduction of the FED's balance sheet. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows the actual rounding on the hourly chart. We will monitor it closely as there is potential for the cup and handle pattern to form. That will be a bearish development. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 NQ1! trades around November 2020 value. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
8
Daily Market Update for 6/15Summary: The Fed increased interest rates by 75 basis points as many expected after last week's inflation data. Initially, the market dipped, but then a rally came after Jerome Powel's comments following the rate hike. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 15, 2022 Facts: +2.50%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 62%, Body: 35% Green Good: Advance on higher volume, closing range, A/D ratio Bad: Long upper wick after buying slowed Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Medium body in center of candle, longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.98, two advancing for every one declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.46%), DJI (+1.00%), RUT (+1.36%), VIX (-9.39%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.81%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.03%) and Energy (XLE -2.21%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed increased interest rates by 75 basis points as many expected after last week's inflation data. Initially, the market dipped, but then a rally came after Jerome Powel's comments following the rate hike. The Nasdaq advanced +2.50% on higher volume than the previous session. The candle has a 35% green body underneath a longer upper wick and a 62% closing range. Both the lower wick and upper wick came after the Fed's interest rate decision. The lower wick formed on the decision and the upper wick formed after public comments by Jerome Powell. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the second-best index, rising by +1.46% today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced by +1.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +1.00%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -9.39%. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.81%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) were at the top. Materials (XLB -0.03%) and Energy (XLE -2.21%) were the two losing sectors. The decline in Energy was likely related ot the decline in Brent Oil prices. Core Retail Sales, which excludes automobiles, grew by 0.5% in May compared to the expectation of 0.8%. Including automobiles, total Retail Sales declined by -0.3% . The Export Price Index rose by 2.8% while the Import Price Index declined by -0.6%, the impact coming from the strong US Dollar. Crude Oil Inventories were higher than expected, rising by 1.96 million barrels. The forecast was for a -1.314 million barrel shortage. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by -0.6%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined as the yield curve continues to recover from its inversion earlier this week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both followed Treasury bond prices higher and the spread between corporate junk bonds and short-term treasuries narrowed. Brent Oil dropped to $116 a barrel. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum prices rose after selling off sharply for several days. The put/call ratio dipped below 0.7 but then ended the day at 0.933. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Extreme Fear range. All big six mega-caps gained. Tesla (TSLA) led the gains with a +5.48% advance, followed closely by Amazon (AMZN) which gained by +5.24%. All six charts showed good gains on higher volume, but there is still much work to do before showing any strength. Tesla and Amazon were also the top stocks in the broader mega-cap list, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) which gained by +4.36%. The big energy companies of Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were at the bottom of the list, declining by -1.26% and -1.96% respectively. There were only five declining stocks on the list. All but two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. Beyond Meat (BYND) was the top stock on the list, soaring by +13.95%. Many of the top gainers in the list today were stocks that were the most beaten down in recent months. RobinHood (HOOD) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -2.49%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts for May will be published tomorrow morning. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June. Adobe (ADBE), Kroger (KR), and Jabil (JBL) will release their earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened with a gap-up but filled the gap after the interest rate decision. The index then had a quick rally after the public statement by Jerome Powell. If the one-day trend line continued into Thursday, that would mean a +1.13% gain. The steep five-day trend line points to a -4.35% decline. The trend line from the 6/2 high is even steeper, pointing to a -6.33% decline for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Is the rally after the Fed interest rate hike good news for investors? Let's wait and see. Last month, the market rallied in the afternoon following the Fed's interest rate decision. And then it dumped for two days. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
First Time This Has Ever Happened for Tech StocksSQQQ is the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) inversely. When tech stocks fall, SQQQ rises. Traders therefore use SQQQ to short tech stocks. This is the first time, in its 12-year history, that SQQQ shows a fully red heatmap of the daily timeframe. A fully red heatmap represents extremely overbought conditions. This is worse than the bottom in March 2020 and the bottom in 2018. This heatmap reflects that too many traders are too fearful of tech and growth stocks right now as they have all switched to shorting them. Although it's hard to predict bottoms, this indicator coupled with the extremely low NDTH value (the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average) could indicate that peak fear is occurring right now and that a potential rally will occur soon. The last time the NDTH was this low was on the exact day of the March 2020 bottom. Therefore, even in a recession, these values suggest bottoms.
NASDAQ:SQQQ
by SpyMasterTrades
12
Daily Market Update for 6/14Summary: A wait-and-see day ended with a further dip across the market, but a bounce in technology stocks helped the Nasdaq end the day with a gain. Investors' full attention is on the Fed's rate-hike decision on Wednesday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 14, 2022 Facts: +0.18%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 49%, Body: 36% Red Good: Ok closing range Bad: Lower high, lower low, A/D ratio weak Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.61, three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.38%), DJI (-0.50%), RUT (-0.39%), VIX (-3.91%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +0.63%) and Energy (XLE +0.19%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.18%) and Utilities (XLU -2.53%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A wait-and-see day ended with a further dip across the market, but a bounce in technology stocks helped the Nasdaq end the day with a gain. Investors' full attention is on the Fed's rate-hike decision on Wednesday. Nasdaq advanced by +0.18%. Volume was much lower than the previous day as most investors are waiting for Wednesday's Fed meeting. A 36% red body sits above a long lower wick that formed late in the session as the index dipped to a lower low before recovering some of the losses and ending with a 49% closing range. There were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The other major indexes retreated further. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.50%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell by -0.39%. The VIX Volatility Index retreated from its high level the previous day, declining by -3.91% today. Two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Technology (XLK +0.63%) and Energy (XLE +0.19%) had the gains after steep declines yesterday. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.18%) and Utilities (XLU -2.53%) had the biggest declines today. Produce Price Index data didn't do much to reduce fears over inflation, but it didn't add any fuel to the fire. The Core PPI came in a 0.5% month-over-month compared to the forecast of 0.6%. Total PPI, which includes food and energy, matched the expectation of a 0.8% month-over-month increase. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its climb, rising by +0.26% today. The Yield curve nearly reverted from yesterday's inversion but is still at a very narrow spread. The 30y, 10y, and 2y yields all dipped and the 2y yield dropped back below the 30y yield. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continued to fall. Brent Oil is back below $120 a barrel. Timber and Copper/Aluminum Futures continue to fall. The put/call ratio (PCCE) remained bearish but fell to 1.09. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Fear range. Four of the big six mega-caps gained. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest gain with a +2.39% advance today. Amazon (AMZN) declined by -1.31% today. Alibaba (BABA) continues to swing up and down, finding itself at the top of the broader mega-cap list today with a +6.81% gain. Coca-Cola Company (KO) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -3.44%. The top four gaining stocks in the Daily Update Growth List were Chinese companies. NIO Technologies (NIO) topped the list with a +16.70% gain. At least half of the list advanced today. RH (RH) had the biggest loss, declining by -4.91%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Several economic indicators will publish in the morning. Retail Sales and Export/Import Price Index for May are due before the market opens. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due after the market opens. None of those will likely impact market direction. Investors are waiting for the Fed Interest Rate Decision which will come at 14:00. That will be followed by closely-watched remarks from Jerome Powell as he carefully lands their economic assessment and Fed strategy to control inflation without causing a recession. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a lower low in the afternoon before recovering enough to gain for the day. If the one-day trend line continues, it will result in a -0.13% decline for Wednesday. The trend line from the 6/2 high points to a -1.19% decline. Following the five-day trend lien would result in a -5.89% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We wait for the Fed. Then we wait for the market reaction. Some analysts see a 75 basis point increase as a good thing that the Fed is willing to follow the data instead of a pre-determined plan. Others see such a rate hike as guaranteeing a recession. So it is not clear whether the market reaction will be good or bad to a 50 basis point increase nor whether it will be good or bad with a 75 basis point increase. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4