IYR
Real estate cycle down$iyr $drn $drv
Pay close attention to real estate- It is due for a cycle low somewhere around early-mid 2020. Because the cycle peak is late, I would venture to say that the move downward could be accelerated. How low it goes should reveal how bearish (or bullish) it is.
Real Estate... Another Day of Pain... Bottoms October 2021Real Estate... Another Day of Pain... Bottoms October 2021
Real Estate Losing Air... Pffffff.... Bottoms Mid-Late 2021Real Estate Losing Air... Pffffff.... Bottoms Mid-Late 2021
built another brschultz gold wave model pointing to Oct 2021 LowReal Estate to bottom in 2 years from now
Too Funny -Today’s Exec Order drops Real Estate Prices - Timing!Too Funny -Today’s Exec Order drops Real Estate Prices - Timing!
Can’t win em all, but was SRS buy under $21 genius?Can’t win em all, but was SRS buy under $21 genius?
IYR 6/20 High Holding - Countdown to June 2021 Home PurchaseIYR 6/20 High Holding - Countdown to June 2021 Home Purchase
Close of House Sale of 6/20/2019 "Perfect Close" IYR PEAK????Close of House Sale of 6/20/2019 "Perfect Close" IYR PEAK????
Closed On Sale of House Today - Rent Nxt 2 Yrs - Buy Mid 2021Closed On Sale of House Today June 20 2019 For The Record
Business cycle update - More outperformance of defensivesDefensives XLP, XLU, and IYR should continue to outperform
DIA Weekly 34 x 500 Hull - Markets/Housing Bottoms June 2021DIA Weekly 34 x 500 Hull - Markets/Housing Bottoms June 2021
Trouble ahead for real estate?$IYR $DRN $DRV
Posted a year ago: as my target
Real estate scares me right now (mostly because I own physical property). This looks bearish with that overhead bear divergence.
Business cycle points to outperformance of XLP Relative performance of defensive sectors XLP, XLU and IYR vs SPY.
XLV performance did not follow a cyclical pattern
Best fit suggests outperformance of XLP vs SPY in coming months
TRADE IDEA: IYR APRIL/JUNE 81/92 PUT DIAGONALAlthough this trade isn't quite ripe for me yet (I'm waiting for all time highs (circled), I thought I'd stick it out there in order to price the setup out, at least preliminarily. Naturally, the strike prices and/or expiries will have to be adjusted should a short opportunity come to pass ... . As with my TLT calendar (See Post Below), this trade operates on the assumption that the underlying will get dinged somewhat in a tightening rate environment (although it seems to bounce back every time), with the next hike being talked about in June.
Metrics:
Max Loss On Setup/Buying Power Effect: $797/contract
Max Profit On Setup: $303/contract ($151 at 50% max; 18.9% Return on Capital).
Break Even: 84.03 versus 84.04 spot
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 72.5%
Delta: -45.98
Theta: .45
Short IYR (U.S Real Estate)Huge weekly divergence according to my indicator, just like in 2008. THE BIG SHORT.
