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J-curve

Bitcoin Corrective Wave MetricsAnalysis of long-term corrective waves from ATH's of different historic periods Facts: The drop of 93.75% back in 2011 was the biggest correction of all time. With time the corrections after new established ATH's got gradually smaller. I'll use fibonacci retracement to measure those heavy drops as ATH - 1 and bottom as 0 to document how measurements of historic drops could define levels of forthcoming waves. -93.75% capture: 2.272 made next ATH of 2013 1.618 defined the 2015 bottom Similarly, -86.96% fib measurement defined: Next ATH of 2017 at between 2.272 and 2.414 Level of 1.414 called the bottom -84.22% drop: This time 1.618 called ATH of 2021 Level between 1 and 0.786 made 2022 bottom Logistic curve partially explains why forthcoming bottoms got close to the previous ATHs The question is, could that be a sign of already saturated market which would cause btc to sidetrend making a long-term diamond pattern. Despite of Bitcoin being deflationary asset, the rate of growth has been slowing down, as the % of bullrun waves got smaller. Knowing about positive correlation BTC and SP500, we can deduce that BTC wouldn't have grown if not for SP500. This dependence would be a venerability for Bitcoin, if AMEX:SPY drops in the nearest future. Nevertheless, many authors in TradingView are optimistic about further growth. The fact that current price still holds at previous ATH levels, could indicate that crowd could be actually right. So to estimate where it would stop, I'll use most frequent fib levels which defined both next bottoms and ATH's. Levels are: 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 and 2.272
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
5
CRV/USDT upward journey from key support? 🚀CRV Analysis💎 Paradisers, brace yourselves for an impactful movement with #CRVUSDT. It's approaching a key resistance, hinting at a bullish opportunity ahead. Maintaining momentum at the $0.5668 level and securing a green candle closure above this point could set the stage for a bullish ascent to tackle the upper supply zones. 💎 Conversely, if #CURVE's progression falters, dropping below the $0.5668 threshold, our focus will shift towards the fallback position at $0.5092. The rich liquidity at this juncture offers a prime opportunity for a bullish resurgence. 💎 Stay alert: a breach of this secondary line of defense could signal a sharper downward trend as the market sentiment swings towards selling. Vigilance and prompt responsiveness to these market changes are crucial for trading success as we navigate the #CRV market landscape.
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
1
CRV/USDT bullish trajectory what next? 👀 🚀 CRV Analysis💎 Paradisers, get ready for an exciting trading opportunity with #CRVUSDT, perfectly positioned at a vital support zone, hinting at an upcoming bullish turn. 💎 Exploring #CURVE journey, after a bump against a major resistance, it's now climbing from a key support level at $0.7162. Staying above this level could very well pave the way for a bullish surge. Keep your sights on the next goal, the resistance at $0.8793, with a breakthrough potentially pushing the price up to $1.1246. 💎 If the drive behind LSE:CRV starts to wane, anticipate a bullish resurgence from the firm support at $0.6368. However, a fall beneath this pivotal point might signal a shift into bearish territory.
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
4
🔥 Bonds Are Predicting A MASSIVE Crash 🚨The Bond Yield Curve, which can be calculated by substracting the US 2 Year bond yield from the US 10 Year bond yield, has been inversed for quite some time. An inversion of the bond yield basically means that bond traders require higher returns on short-term bonds than on long-term bonds, which translates to short-term bonds being more risky than long-term ones. This only occurs when bond traders anticipate an upcoming crisis. The inversion on itself is not necessarily bearish, but the "un-inversion" is very bearish. As seen on the white chart, once the line crosses the zero line from below, it has always predicted an upcoming crash. With the Bond Yield Curve recently seeing a strong "bullish" move, it's likely that we're going to hit 0% in the near future. Consequently, this signals that a market crash is on the horizon. Whether history will repeat remains to be seen. However, we had one of the strongest yield inversions in history, which doesn't bode well. Do you think that a crash is coming? Share your thoughts and charts.
TVC:US10YShort
by FieryTrading
15
Yield Curve Bottom (10s minus 2s) This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining a “long” short-dated bond position with a “short” long-dated bond position, while a flattener involves sale of short-term bonds and purchase of long-term bonds. - CFA Institute
TVC:US10YLong
by jBTCkingaling
1
Curve / US Dollars (CRVUSDT) Token Analysis 11/09/2023Fundamental analysis: Curve functions as a decentralized exchange specializing in stablecoins, employing an automated market maker (AMM) to oversee liquidity management. Its journey began in January 2020, and Curve has since become closely associated with the decentralized finance (DeFi) movement, experiencing substantial growth in the latter part of 2020. In August, Curve introduced a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) featuring CRV as its native token. This DAO leverages the Ethereum-based creation tool, Aragon, to establish connections among various smart contracts responsible for handling users' deposited liquidity. It's worth noting that governance within this DAO differs in terms of its weighting and other key aspects compared to Aragon. Curve has garnered significant attention by fulfilling its role as an Automated Market Maker (AMM) specifically designed for stablecoin trading. The introduction of the DAO and CRV token has added to its profitability, as CRV serves a governance function and is distributed to users based on their level of liquidity commitment and the duration of their ownership. The surge in DeFi trading has solidified Curve's position in the industry, as AMMs continue to handle substantial amounts of liquidity, leading to increased user profits. Consequently, Curve caters to a broad spectrum of DeFi participants, including those engaged in yield farming and liquidity mining, as well as individuals seeking to optimize returns while holding relatively stable and non-volatile stablecoins. The platform generates revenue by imposing a modest fee, which is then rewarded to liquidity providers. Curve entails the typical risks associated with depositing funds into smart contracts and engaging with Automated Market Makers (AMMs), primarily the risk of impermanent loss. Given that Curve exclusively deals with stablecoins, the likelihood of rapid market fluctuations is diminished. However, users may still experience losses when markets undergo rebalancing to align with cross-market price adjustments. While Curve has undergone audits, it's essential to recognize that these audits do not eliminate the inherent risks associated with exposure to a particular cryptocurrency. Curve (CRV) made its debut in August 2020, coinciding with the launch of the Curve DAO. Its primary role is to serve as a governance mechanism, provide incentives, facilitate fee payments, and offer a means for long-term earnings to liquidity providers. The total supply of CRV tokens amounts to 3.03 billion, with the majority (62%) allocated to liquidity providers. The remaining tokens are distributed as follows: 30% to shareholders, 3% to employees, and 5% to a community reserve. It's important to note that both shareholder and employee allocations are subject to a two-year vesting schedule. CRV did not undergo a premine, and the gradual unlocking of tokens indicates that approximately 750 million tokens should be in circulation one year after the initial launch. The founder and CEO of Curve is Michael Egorov, a Russian scientist with diverse experience in cryptocurrency-related ventures. In 2015, he co-founded NuCypher, where he assumed the role of CTO. NuCypher is a cryptocurrency company focused on developing privacy-preserving infrastructure and protocols. Egorov is also the brain behind LoanCoin, a decentralized bank and loans network. Curve's core team is integrated into the CRV allocation structure, entitling them to receive tokens over a two-year vesting period as per the initial launch plan. In August 2020, Egorov acknowledged that he had "overreacted" by locking up a significant number of CRV tokens in response to yearn.finance's voting power, resulting in him obtaining 71% of governance control in the process. Technical Analysis: As we observe, the price is currently trading within a range bounded by the Fibonacci retracement levels of 78.6% and 95%. Notably, there is a potential support level at $0.15. For the anticipated bullish cycles, we have established three potential price targets: First Target Price (1TP): $6.75 Second Target Price (2TP): $8.5 Third Target Price (3TP): $11 It's worth noting that there are multiple resistance levels marked on the chart, corresponding to the Fibonacci retracement levels. Sentiment Analysis: Considering the possibility of depreciation in the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in the upcoming months, it is reasonable to consider employing a Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for long positions at the specified support levels and current Price.
Long
by BitonGroup
BTC Fundamentals and Long Term predictionsI'm horrible at technical analysis but the fundamentals of bitcoin are something I'm very familiar with. Like rats on a Caribbean Island Bitcoin will experience a hyperbolic s-curve that levels off once it: 1 reaches global forex market saturation (1-10%) 2 approaches 21M limit Along the way global economic events will create massive bubbles as collapsing economies convert fiat into cryto (presumably BTC). As the average price of BTC gets higher, and the collapsing economy's size get biggers, FOMO will make theses bubbles bigger and bigger as well (Red triangles). This is good news though, more opportunity for profit ;D When the S-curve starts to level off we might see something like this elenastreuding.files.wordpress.com or this www.google.com Its gonna be a wild ride to the top and I hope everyone makes some good money; don't forget to take profit! -Goonch Further Reading: medium.com PS - I'm mostly ignoring the first major bubble because of MTGOX shenanigans
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by The_Goonch
6
CRVUSDT Presenting a Bullish Scenario? Curve Analysis Today💎CRVUSDT is presently navigating within a descending channel and making lower lows and lower highs on the 1D timeframe. 💎One critical point to notice is that it is positioned near a crucial support level, which aligns with the POC of VRVP. 💎 Just beneath, there's a pronounced demand zone and additional significant support that CRV could potentially approach for a retest. 💎 While there's a minimal likelihood that CRV may breach both these supports and persist in its decline, we're hopeful that CRV will emerge from this channel in the upcoming days. 💎Keep a lookout for further insights and relish your trading voyage with #MyCryptoParadise.
Long
by MyCryptoParadise_Nathan
CRV price - "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern on a chart ?Today we will analyze the price movement of CRVUSDT on the global chart. It can be assumed that the global "Inverted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern" has been forming on the CRVUSD chart for the past year. At least, the price structure and the falling trade volumes from the left to the right shoulder correspond to those described in the Encyclopedia of Trading Patterns. A surge in trading volumes should occur after the price of CRV tries to break through, and hopefully breaks through and consolidates above the $1.18 level . As you can see from the trading history, there was a lot of struggle between buyers and sellers around this level. But before that, buyers need to break through and gain a foothold above the local level of $0.80-0.82. Buyers have a lot of work to do to revive speculators' interest in the CRV Well, after the CRVUSDT price is firmly established above $1.18 , the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern will finally activate. At the same time, the long-term target for the growth of the CRV price, which is in the range of $3.50-4.50 , will be activated, and we were remembering the average - $4 per Curve DAO token. _____________________ Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
Long
by P_S_trade
27
Crypto CRV/USD (Possible bounce?) View On CRVUSDT (16 June 2023) CRVUSD is in * Bearish in short term (Intraweek) * Bullish in Mid term (1 to 3 months) * Bullish in Long term (3 months onward) CRV has been under the bearish control for a while and it touched near a strong support 0.5~0.55 region. The volume traded is rather hugh too. Now we may see some rebound. It shall easily swing back UP to 0.65 and 0.70 possibly. DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading crypto, foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
BINANCE:CRVUSDLong
by SonicDeejay
Curve may see Double-Bottom vs BitcoinCurve has primarily been within a parallel downtrend on its logarithmic chart (3 day chart shown here). It broke above that channel and moved nearly a channels width above it, before breaking back down into the same trend. Often when we see a strong channel breakout that eventually falls back into the channel, crypto charts have a tendency to test a breakout on the opposite end. I've drawn channels of equal length above and below to illustrate this. I'm expecting there is a decent chance this occurs again here, where we break down below the channel and move nearly a channels width below. This would put us in the same range as Curve's ATL vs. Bitcoin, and could stop there or move closer towards the full length of the channel, to have a slightly lower 2nd bottom on its double-bottom. This is just an idea based on trends I've noticed in crypto. I didn't look for much confluence - but MACD is trending down and volume is still unusually low. Should this actually happen, expect a strong move back up from the 2nd low or ATL. Short until then, long when it reaches the green box or near lower channel bottom.
Short
by dudebruhwhoa
1
Microsoft Corporation [PRICETIMETABLE]Applying curves to mimic exponential slope function behind candle formation. Comparing to use of straight lines for identifying trends. Why? Since there is no straight lines in nature or most of physical processes. Market is alive entity which vibrates and application of straight lines is not exactly what I'm looking for. After new formed candles we will se how market behaved to such obstacles. It's like we're giving the market lead knowing it's nature of price in given time. Not reversing at this current fib means that it extends to next from starting point as whole fib (Fib expiration). More it accumulates, the more potent gets opposite market incentive. Alignment of Fib retracement of a wave to previous is sign that it is measured without imbalance. Mind violet zone or even better mind intersections with normal trendlines which proves interconnectedness of tables drawing tools which are actually based on candles. Evaluation a wave in terms of the other makes sense because of cause-effect chain emerging in respect to its timing. I labeled as Education/tutorial because I'll learn from market's behavior myself. Making it public so other people are also part of my journey.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by fract
5
TREASURY YIELDS AND THE FED FUNDS RATEThis chart shows the effective federal funds rate in comparison to the 30 year and 3 month yield over the past five years. There are 5 interesting times to look at: 1. Late 2018 long term yields began to peak right before the fed stopped their hiking cycle. Yield curve began to flatten. 2. They then stayed put for about 6 months with the 3MY hovering right around the EFFR. Suddenly, the 3 month yield dips below the fed rate quickly - and they begin dropping their benchmark rate again . 3. Early 2020 the panic of the COVID-19 pandemic caused rates to nose dive and the fed to slash their rate all the way to 0% very quickly. 4. Fed did not raise rates for two years . In early 2022 they began to hike for the first time since 2018. This also coincides with the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. 5. Half a year of steady rate hikes makes it so the EFFR finally passes it's 2018 peak in mid 2022. The 30Y and 30M invert fairly soon after while the fed funds rate overtakes the 30Y yield. Feel free to discuss what you think of these relations and what your predictions are for the future. In my opinion, the more the yield curve inverts the more problems there will be in the financial system. Eventually, term risk will not outweigh the high short-term yields especially once the benchmark rate gets over the inflation rate. I see the fed doing what they are best ate - acting too late.
FRED:EFFR
by Seth-Goldberg