DXY: Approaching a bottom. Wait for the 1D MA50 to break.The U.S. Dollar Index is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.278, MACD = -0.450, ADX = 23.415) as it seems to be approaching a long term support level, the bottom of the 12 month Channel Down. As long as it stays under the 1D MA50, the trend will remain bearish towards the bottom but once it crosses above, we will turn bullish and aim for a +9.95% bullish wave (TP = 107.000) same as the one before. Notice how similar the 1D RSI fractals are now and the previous bottom in September 2024.
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USD/JPY - Triangle Breakout (06.06.2025)The USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 144.94
2nd Resistance – 145.52
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XAUUSD - Gold awaits NFP!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the hourly timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50. We should wait for a valid breakout of the pattern we identified yesterday, from which we had a Fick break above. We can enter the trade after it breaks in the formed pattern, and on the other hand, if gold corrects towards the demand zone, we can buy it in the short term with a reward at an appropriate risk.
Gold came under downward pressure amid renewed optimism regarding U.S.-China trade talks. Although prices surged to a four-week high earlier in the day due to strong demand from Asian and European buyers, a wave of selling during U.S. trading hours reversed part of that gain.
This shift in momentum coincided with rising U.S. Treasury yields and a boost in market sentiment following a phone call between the presidents of China and the United States. While no official statement has been issued yet, the decision to initiate a new round of high-level negotiations was seen as a positive signal. In recent months, gold has become a key indicator for gauging geopolitical and trade-related risks, having previously surged to an all-time high of $3,500 after the “Freedom Day” tariffs were implemented.
Despite ongoing concerns over Ukraine, Iran, and the growing U.S. fiscal deficit—which provide fundamental support for gold—the metal’s inability to break above the key resistance level of $3,437 has cast doubt on the short-term bullish outlook.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has projected that the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for May will show a 125,000 increase in jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%, and monthly wage growth is estimated at 0.3%. The bank also anticipates a 10,000-job decline in the public sector, largely due to tariff-related policies and reduced hiring. Overall, Goldman Sachs expects the report to be balanced and free of surprises, which should encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy stance.
Although gold has managed to stabilize above $3,000 per ounce in recent weeks, many investors remain focused on reclaiming the historic peak reached in April. According to one research firm, it’s only a matter of time before that level is tested and broken again.
In the annual “Gold Focus 2025” report published Thursday by the UK-based firm Metals Focus, analysts stated that gold retains strong momentum for further gains in 2026. They forecast that the average gold price this year could reach an unprecedented $3,210, with new highs likely in the second half of the year.
In an interview with Kitco News, Metals Focus CEO Philip Newman said it is difficult to envision a scenario that would derail the current bull market. While this perspective isn’t included in their formal forecasts, he believes the rally could extend into 2026.
Newman added, “If you look at what’s happening across the global economy, all the ingredients for a structural bull market are present.” He highlighted that one of gold’s unique traits is how quickly investors adapt to new price levels, often converting previous resistance levels into future support. A year ago, he admitted he would have expected $3,000 to trigger widespread profit-taking.
However, despite ongoing economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability, investors have not been discouraged by current price levels. Newman emphasized that what makes 2025 distinct is that new investors are just now entering the market. While gold has been rallying since 2023, much of the demand until recently came from central banks and Asian markets—particularly China.
Newman noted that only in Q4 of last year and early this year did retail investors begin to decisively adopt a bullish stance. “We’ve seen strong growth in investment demand this year,” he said, “but there’s still a large amount of capital that hasn’t entered the market yet. This is not a bubble—this is a well-supported, structurally sound market.”
He concluded by identifying changing perceptions of the U.S. dollar as a major driver behind increased gold investment.While the dollar remains a traditional safe haven, ongoing trade tensions and unsustainable government debt levels have eroded market confidence, prompting investors to seek safety and diversification through gold.
USD/CHF - Triangle Breakout (06.06.2025)The USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.8263
2nd Resistance – 0.8227
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BTC v DXY📊 Updated Analysis: BTC vs DXY
🔺 BTC Chart (Top Panel)
Price is near previous ATH resistance (~$110k).
Momentum is slowing as shown by the bearish divergence on RSI (RSI trending lower while price stays flat or rises).
However, BTC has not broken down; it’s still in consolidation near highs — not rejection.
🔻 DXY Chart (Bottom Panel)
DXY had a mini rally from ~100 to ~110 but is now pulling back slightly.
If DXY forms a lower high and breaks down, that would typically support a BTC rally.
If DXY resumes strength, BTC may consolidate longer or correct.
🧠 Can BTC Sustain a Multi-Year Bull Run with DXY in View?
Yes — if DXY weakens.
🟢 Bull Run Case:
If DXY breaks below 100, this could trigger a major capital rotation into risk assets, including BTC.
BTC above $112k with falling DXY = probable start of a parabolic rally (think $150k+).
🔴 Bearish Risk:
If DXY finds strong support (~98–100) and begins rallying again, especially beyond 110–112, BTC could enter a mid-cycle correction.
🔭 Watch These Levels:
BTC: Break/close above $112k = bull continuation. Breakdown below ~$85k = caution.
DXY: Close below 100 = major BTC bullish signal. Close above 112 = danger zone for crypto.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.36
1st Support: 97.98
1st Resistance: 99.23
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A Contrarian View On the US DollarI don't recall the last bullish headline I saw for the US dollar, bearish sentiment may be stretched, and I'm seeing plenty of clues across the US dollar index and all FX majors that we could at least be looking at a minor bounce. Whether it can turn into a larger short-covering rally is likely down to Trump's trade deals. Either way, I'm, on guard for an inflection point for the dollar.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
DXY POTENTIAL LONG|
✅DXY will soon retest a key support level of 98.000
So I think that the index will make a rebound
And go up to retest the supply level above at 99.088
LONG🚀
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DXY: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 98.335 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 98.090..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
USD/CAD - Bearish Flag (04.06.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3645
2nd Support – 1.3605
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GBPUSD 4H MAJOR REVERSAL SETUP – WATCH FOR THE BREAK!Hey There;
The Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern in GBPUSD is becoming more defined, approaching a critical neckline level. If a breakout occurs, it could trigger a strong downward move, pushing the price toward new support levels.
Right now, sellers are gaining strength while buyers attempt to defend key support zones. A confirmed close below the neckline could accelerate the sell-off.
📌 If the breakout happens, I’ll share target levels with you—stay tuned for updates
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XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue Its Rise?!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. We should wait for a valid breakout of the specified pattern and then enter the trade in the formed pattern. If gold corrects towards the demand zone, we can buy it in the short term with appropriate risk-reward.
According to the latest ADP report, private-sector employers in the United States added just 37,000 new jobs in May, marking a decline from 60,000 in April and reaching the lowest level in two years. While ADP data is typically interpreted with caution, many economists still anticipate that Friday’s official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report will reflect stronger employment growth.
President Donald Trump seized on this data to renew his criticism of the Federal Reserve for not lowering interest rates to support job creation. Some analysts argue that if the ADP figures are taken as an indicator, Trump’s tariffs may have impacted the labor market sooner than experts expected—though that remains a significant “if.”
ADP, a payroll services provider, announced on Wednesday that private employers added only 37,000 jobs in May, down from April’s 60,000 and the lowest number since March 2023. According to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, this figure falls well short of the expected 110,000 job increase.
If this sharp slowdown in job growth is mirrored in the government’s official report, it may indicate that businesses have drastically reduced hiring in response to the uncertainty caused by Trump’s frequently shifting trade policies. Forecasts have long predicted that higher inflation and slower job growth could result from trade conflicts. However, many experts believe the true effects will become visible in the summer, rather than being fully reflected in May’s data.
Additionally, many economists regard ADP as an imprecise leading indicator of the more comprehensive BLS report. Other labor market surveys have thus far shown greater resilience in employment conditions.
Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Economics, wrote: “As always, we recommend ignoring the headline message of the ADP jobs report, primarily because its recent track record has been very poor.” Analysts widely expect Friday’s BLS report to show that the labor market remained stable in May, with employers adding approximately 125,000 jobs.
Continuing his criticisms, Trump again used the ADP figures to attack Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates this year. In a post on Truth Social, Trump compared the Fed to the European Central Bank, which has already lowered rates nine times. The Federal Reserve, in contrast, has maintained the federal funds rate at elevated levels since January, aiming to reduce inflation to its 2% annual target by keeping upward pressure on borrowing costs. This policy is being implemented amid persistent uncertainty about the broader economic impact of the tariffs.
Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in order to reduce borrowing costs, stimulate economic growth, and prevent a potential recession. He wrote: “The ADP numbers are out!!! ‘Late’ Powell must cut rates now. He’s unbelievable!!! Europe has cut nine times!”
Meanwhile, the latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book was released. Half of the Federal Reserve districts reported slight to moderate declines in economic activity, while three districts reported no change and three reported modest growth. All districts cited high levels of economic and political uncertainty. Reports on consumer spending varied. Home sales remained largely unchanged. While employment remained steady, hiring was conducted cautiously due to the uncertain outlook. Tariffs were reported to have caused moderate price increases, with rising costs increasingly passed on to consumers. Manufacturing activity was slightly weakened by tariffs, and businesses adopted a more cautious approach to investment.
XAUUSD GOLD Possible Move 26 May 2026Gold is currently retracing into a key demand zone between 3323–3326, aligning with two strong technical confirmations:
Horizontal Support Zone:
Price previously reacted strongly from this area, establishing a visible support level now being retested.
Ascending Trendline Support:
A well-respected trendline, connecting multiple higher lows, coincides perfectly with the current retracement, adding structural strength to the zone.
Additionally, price action shows signs of liquidity sweep and internal bullish structure, suggesting a possible reversal after stop-hunting weak longs.
Expecting a bullish reaction from this confluence zone targeting the next intraday resistance.
📈 Trade Signal – XAUUSD Buy
Entry Zone: 3323 – 3326
Stop Loss: Below 3317.89 (below the trendline and liquidity sweep zone)
Take Profits: 3336/40/45 (recent supply / minor resistance)
Trade Idea:
Buy from demand zone + trendline support with clear invalidation. Looking for price to bounce and revisit recent highs. Clean intraday opportunity with minimal drawdown expected.
✅ Confluences:
Strong support retest
Trendline touch
Liquidity sweep behavior
Bullish reaction expected from demand
Gold XAUUSD Possible Move 6th May 2025I'm watching two key demand zones today for potential buy opportunities:
📍 Zone 1: 3348–3352 (Blue Zone)
Reasoning: This area aligns with a previous demand zone that has already shown strong bullish reaction. Price is currently retracing into this area.
Signal to Enter: Look for:
A liquidity sweep below the zone (e.g., a quick wick down grabbing stop-losses).
Followed by a bullish engulfing candle or a break of minor structure to the upside on lower timeframes (e.g., M1–M5).
Expectation: If confirmed, this could trigger the next leg up toward the recent highs (approx. 3385+).
📍 Zone 2: 3320–3325 (Red Zone)
Reasoning: A deeper zone of interest where price last consolidated before a strong rally. Ideal for deeper pullback entries if the first zone fails.
Signal to Enter:
Look for a retest and bullish rejection with strong wick rejections or a CHoCH (Change of Character) on LTF.
A clean break of minor bearish structure can serve as confirmation.
Expectation: If this level holds, a bounce back toward the mid/high 3300s is likely.
✅ Trade Setup Summary:
Buy Zone 1: 3348–3352
Signal: Liquidity grab + Bullish engulfing / BOS (low timeframes)
Target: 3365–3375-85
Invalidation: Clean break and close below 3345
Buy Zone 2: 3320–3325
Signal: Rejection wicks + CHoCH or FVG entry
Target: 3335–3355-3375
Invalidation: Break below 3315
GOLD REVERESED! Looking for the breakout!We got some news Tuesday that shifted the direction of the pullback and now looking like we might just break out. if we can make it above yesterdays highs and closed on the H4 then I think it will be safe to look for higher levels. but if it breaks down from here then we could still see it reach for Liquidity. We just have to be patient in waiting for price to show its hand.
THE FLEX SETUP (EURGBP)Good day traders, I'm back with another setup and it’s only an update that I believe can really provide insight into what to expect from price in the upcoming weeks.
Like I always say that I always want to see price take out a previous week high/low as I use that as a confirmation in term of the power of 3 that I use to try and avoid manipulation, but this doesn't mean I don't get on the wrong side of price moves. Looking at the HTF's overall structure we can see that we in a very bullish structure but... There's a bearish flow in price!! On the weekly TF price left a large FVG(BISI), showing how strong the bullish structure is and now that price is trading on top of this BISI I'm mentioning. If we go one TF lower to the daily TF than on the daily the weekly BISI is a balanced price range and normally how I look at Gaps after been balanced, I treat them like classic support/resistance, but they have to confluence with another PD array first than for me the rules of 'support/resistance' come into play. If you look close into the daily TF, we have relative equal highs inside the volume imbalance created on the 12th of May.
Let's look at how price delivered since opening with a gap lower on the 12th, on that same day price repriced that gap but did not close above it. Why do we want it to close above it? Well ICT teaches more on volume imbalances and the rules or pros and cons. If price closes above the volume imbalance than it becomes balanced once price retests the closure above/below obviously depending on the gap opening. On the 4HTF we saw price shift structure higher and the first thing I see is the candle that had a broken lower high because it also became our breaker. And a FVG inside it making that zone stronger again we can use all the PD arrays together.
GOLD - WAVE 4 CORRECTION TO $2,800 (UPDATE)The 'resistance turned support' which I mentioned yesterday is holding up well. After the retest of the support zone, we're currently seeing bullish momentum keep Gold prices up.
As soon as Gold surpasses $3,400 & closes WITHIN the previous 0.365% zone, I will be sure that the 3 Sub-Wave (A,B,C) correction for sellers is over & buyers are now heading towards a new ATH. Until then I am still wary & being careful of sellers.
ABBV - Are you Ready?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈ABBV has been in a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the red and blue channels.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong round number $150 and structure!
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of structure and lower trendlines acting as non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #ABBV approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
DXYDXY price is near the support zone 98.74-97.87. If the price cannot break through the 97.87 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
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XAUUSD - Gold Awaits Employment Data!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If gold corrects towards the demand range, it can be bought in the short term with appropriate risk-reward. A break of the resistance range will also pave the way for gold to rise to $3,400.
In April, the U.S. labor market demonstrated resilience and flexibility, with job openings climbing to 7.4 million—exceeding analysts’ expectations. Hiring reached its fastest pace since May 2024, as employers brought on 5.6 million new workers. While these upbeat figures surprised many, some economists remained cautious, warning that ongoing tariff policies could weigh on the labor market later this year.
Recent labor market data have featured unexpected results, mostly leaning positive. According to Tuesday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job openings in April surpassed forecasts, rising from 7.2 million in March to 7.4 million.
Despite the encouraging nature of the data, the overall labor market picture has not shifted dramatically. Month-to-month fluctuations aside, the broader trend reflects a slowdown compared to the post-pandemic period when demand for workers was extremely high. Economists continue to expect that the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign will further hinder job creation in the months ahead.
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary: “These figures still reflect a gradually slowing but stable job market. The jump in openings is more indicative of normal data volatility than a genuine surge in new positions. Likewise, the increase in hiring isn’t a strong recovery signal, as hiring remains within recent weak ranges.”
Alison Sriwastava, labor economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, added: “The data show that U.S. employers had enough confidence to maintain more job openings in April than in March—whether through strong planning, resilient supply chains, or a bit of luck. But just because employers had a good month doesn’t mean they can sustain that success indefinitely, especially given the continued uncertainty and volatility.”
Meanwhile, the White House confirmed that it had sent letters to several countries asking them to submit their best trade offers by Wednesday. Progress on trade agreements since “Liberation Day” has been sluggish and challenging, and now all eyes are on what the Trump administration will do next.
Reuters obtained the letter, which asked countries to present their best proposals regarding tariffs, purchase quotas for U.S. goods, and plans to eliminate non-tariff barriers. However, according to the New York Post, immediate retaliation or action from the White House should not be assumed. Citing a source familiar with the matter, the letter’s purpose was described as an assessment of trade partners’ progress rather than a call for final offers.
In the diplomatic arena, newly appointed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to meet with Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday following weeks of consultations. Key topics on the agenda include the war in Ukraine, Middle East crises, and trade policy. Merz, who recently took charge of Europe’s largest economy, has made rounds through major European capitals and now seeks to ease tensions with the Trump administration. The main areas of contention between Washington and Berlin involve trade imbalances, support for Ukraine, and domestic policy disputes.
This meeting presents a rare opportunity for Merz to voice his positions directly to Trump—unlike his predecessor, who never received a White House invitation.Nevertheless, Merz faces numerous challenges, ranging from far-right political pressures at home to clashes over tech companies on both sides of the Atlantic.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum officially took effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on Wednesday. These now-doubled tariffs apply to all trading partners except the United Kingdom. As the only country to have reached a preliminary trade deal with the U.S. so far, the U.K. will remain under a 25% tariff until at least July 9.
The executive order signed by Trump on Tuesday stated that the action is intended to “more effectively counter foreign nations that continue to sell excess and underpriced steel and aluminum in the U.S. market, undermining the competitiveness of America’s domestic steel and aluminum industries.”
Bitcoin Brewing - A large move is coming!Bitcoin has been under pressure over the last few trading sessions.
Despite the equity markets going higher this asset is stuck in a holding pattern.
We are currently forming a wedge pattern that has given us a directional bias to trade.
Price action is at a 50/50 in terms of falling lower or rallying higher.
Being the fact that the bulls have been forming higher lows & higher highs, we have to give them due respect.
However understand this BTC is showing some distribution signs and is likely going to have a decent selloff within the next 15-45days. We may have 1 more spike higher but we may not.
1 note of interest is the 7day & 20 day moving average just signaled a bearish crossover which is something you need to monitor closely.
I do think the upside is limited to about 115K if we have 1 more move higher.
CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?!Oil prices broke down lower in the past few weeks, after a much needed LQ grab, following a 2 year consolidation. We’ve seen a ‘5 Wave Complex Correction’, which should now be followed by price recovery.
Wait for buyers to BREAK ABOVE our ‘buying confirmation’ level, followed a by a retest before buying, otherwise leave it❗️
USDollar Is Making An Intraday Pullback Within DowntrendGood morning traders! Stocks keep pushing higher along with yields, so it looks like 10Y US Notes could still see lower support levels, and that’s why USdollar is in a bigger intraday correction. What we want to say is that while the 10Y US Notes are still searching for support, the DXY can stay in recovery mode or at least sideways. In the meantime, stocks can easily see even higher levels after NVIDIA surpassed earnings.
Looking at the intraday USDollar Index – DXY chart, we see a leading diagonal formation, so we are tracking now an intraday abc correction before a bearish continuation, thus keep an eye on GAP from May 18 around 101 level that can be filled and may act as a resistance before a bearish continuation.