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J-DXY

EUR/USD Shorts from 1.07800 back downThis week, my analysis for EU is showing slow movement, as it isn't close to any key Points of Interest (POI). However, after the CPI release, I expect a surge in liquidity, which could lead to a retracement in EU. From there, I’ll be looking to enter sell positions at a supply zone I've marked, which previously caused a break of structure to the downside. There are two potential supply zones to watch: the 9-hour supply zone or the 2-hour supply zone above it. If price begins to slow down and distributes upward, I’ll be cautious. However, if the price continues to drop, I’ll wait for a new supply zone to form or look to enter buy positions from the 3-hour supply zone, as outlined in Scenario B. Confluences supporting EU sell positions are: - Price action has been strongly bearish, aligning with a pro-trend idea. - The DXY has been bullish, which suggests EU could continue to move down. - Liquidity remains focused to the downside. - A potential supply zone is identified, providing a possible selling POI. P.S. If price breaks structure to the downside, I’ll wait for a retest and then follow the downtrend. Look out for CPI and remain diligent!
Short
by Hassan_fx
eurnzd h2 long/short +200/+400 pips swing trade plan🔸Hello traders, let's review the 2hour chart for EURNZD today. Rangebound trading condition recently, currently expecting a re-test of the mirror S/R resistance overhead and then sellers will take over from the resistance. 🔸Key levels for EURNZD traders: 7860 s/r bulls, 8050/60 s/r bears, 7659 mirror s/r bulls level will get re-tested by the bears for liquidity. 🔸Recommended strategy for EURNZD traders: the sequence is long/short so you want to buy low off the s/r bulls at 7860 SL 40 TP +200 pips, this is the bounce play / re-test of the mirror s/r bears at 8050 then flip short at/near 8050+-10 pips SL 50 pips TP1 +200 TP2 +400 pips final exit bears at mirror s/r at 7650. this is a swing trade setup, patience required. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
1
EURUSD - markets are waiting for the CPI!The EURUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term descending channel. In case of an upward correction to the release of the CPI index today, we can see the supply zone and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. The placement of this currency pair in the specified demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it. According to sources, the United Kingdom and the European Union have decided to intensify their efforts to draft and implement a joint defense treaty in response to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the importance of close relations with the United States and insisted on deepening EU-U.S. cooperation, particularly in trade. He stated, “If the Trump administration decides to impose tariffs on the EU, we have both the authority and the capacity to respond accordingly.” Robert Holzmann, Governor of the Austrian Central Bank and a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, recently spoke with the newspaper Kleine Zeitung about the possibility of a rate cut in the December meeting. He noted that currently, there is no reason to avoid a rate cut, but this does not mean it will definitely happen. Holzmann stressed that the final decision will be made after receiving the latest forecasts and economic data in December, adding, “There is currently nothing opposing a rate cut, but that does not mean it will automatically take place.” In other developments, Japanese investors in September recorded their highest purchase of German government bonds since 2018, while continuing to avoid French bonds due to concerns over France’s financial situation. According to Japan’s balance of payments data, released on Monday, Japanese investors acquired a net 859.6 billion yen ($5.6 billion) of German bonds in September. Japanese funds also sold French government bonds for the fifth consecutive month, marking the longest selling streak since 2022. Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the first key U.S. economic data post-election, has garnered market attention. While inflation data has been of lesser significance in recent months, this report may impact trading sentiment, especially if the downward inflation trend faces setbacks. The monthly core inflation rate is expected to come in at around 0.30 percent, while the overall monthly inflation is expected at approximately 0.21 percent. Additionally, core annual inflation is likely to hold steady at 3.3 percent, while the overall annual rate could rise to about 2.6 percent. In the absence of surprises, today’s report is not expected to trigger significant market reactions; however, any upward surprises may have a larger impact. Currently, there is about a 63 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Barclays Bank now forecasts only one 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year, a shift from its previous forecast of three such cuts in 2025. This adjustment follows recent developments, including Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president and the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has updated its own projections for the Fed’s monetary policies next year, expecting the U.S. central bank to initiate quarterly rate cuts starting in March 2025.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Copper - The negative impact of Trump's victory on commoditiesCopper is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If copper falls due to the release of today's economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend starts and the bottom of the channel is maintained, it is possible to sell copper in the supply zones in the short term. After Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election and the positive reaction from markets, investors are refocusing on economic data. Trump’s historic return to the White House was met with strong market responses, with stocks and Bitcoin reaching new highs and the U.S. dollar hitting a four-month peak. Treasury yields also saw significant increases. It’s worth noting that yields have been rising since late September as investors anticipated fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next two to three years. Now, Trump’s victory has diminished hopes for rate cuts. If Trump follows through on his promises to cut taxes and increase tariffs, these measures could drive prices up by boosting domestic demand and raising import costs. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve may have to maintain tight monetary policy for a longer period than current expectations. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release today, will provide the first economic clues post-election for rate cut forecasts. The annual CPI rate fell to 2.4% in September but is expected to rise to 2.5% in October. Monthly CPI is projected at 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to increase from 3.3% to 3.4% in October. In China, senior lawmakers approved a plan to shift local government debt to the official balance sheet, allowing Beijing to better assist local governments in managing debt challenges. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress also approved a plan to increase the local debt ceiling. According to Mr. Xu, head of the National People’s Congress Budget Committee, China intends to raise the local government debt cap by 6 trillion yuan. China’s exports have also surged, as Beijing braces for Trump’s potential tariff threats. Chinese factories have ramped up production to ship goods to major export markets before any new tariffs are imposed. Trump’s election win has intensified tariff concerns among Chinese officials and factory owners. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers have demanded more detailed information on advanced chip-making equipment sales to China by major manufacturers, reflecting growing tensions between the superpowers and concerns about potential military applications. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has also informed several Chinese clients that it is suspending production of AI and high-performance computing chips to comply with U.S. export control laws. On the other hand, Commerzbank predicts the potential for further gains in the U.S. dollar is limited, and that Trump’s macroeconomic policies may be less impactful than anticipated. While Trump’s policies are inflationary, the effects are likely to be contained, meaning the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
DXY (dollar index) Out lookMy bias for the dollar is that it may start to slow down and experience some pullbacks, likely to fill the imbalances below and capture some liquidity. However, I also see Scenario A playing out, which could push the price upward and continue the bullish trend. Given the current market conditions, I expect these retracements, which also align with my outlook for EU and GU. Confluences supporting my bullish bias on the dollar: - The DXY has been very bullish and has broken significant structure to the upside. - The DXY has surpassed the key psychological level of 105.00. - There is still a lot of liquidity to the upside that needs to be taken. - Clean demand zones are in place, reinforcing my bullish outlook. P.S. Be cautious and watch for the major red news on Wednesday, specifically the CPI event, as it will provide key insight for the forecast. I expect the dollar to retrace ahead of the news, but once it's released, I anticipate the dollar will shoot back up.
TVC:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
Bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 104.42 1st Support: 103.45 1st Resistance: 106.04 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
R2F Weekly Analysis - 10th November 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it! This video will be a special "The Leap" edition. - R2F
TVC:DXY
by Road_2_Funded
EURUSD strategic outlook: BEARS will target 1.0500🔸Hello guys, today let's review H8 price chart for eurusd. Previously recommended buying low near 1.0650, TP hit +400 pips, congrats if you followed. you can review original setup via link below. 🔸Range lows defined at 0650 , range highs set at 1050/1100. This is the active trading range for EURUSD since early 2023 it's well-defined and it's very unlikely that price will exit this range any time soon (not until 2026). 🔸Currently we got a strong rejection near range highs at 1100 and this resistance is too strong for the bulls to break atm, price was already rejected multiple times from this level. there are no bullish catalysts in euro zone to break 1.10/1.11 S/R. 🔸Recommended strategy position traders: bears focus on short selling rips/rallies, targeting range lows at 0500/0550. Bears will take over from here, so there is no valid setup for bulls on buy side. Keep in mind that this is a swing trade setup and provided low volatiliy in EURUSD it may take a while to hit the targets (multiple weeks). 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
29
4 Winning Years Ahead for Traders Under TrumpOn November 5, 2024, the markets made it loud and clear—they’re excited about Donald J. Trump’s return to office. Stocks, the dollar, and other key assets all responded with strong moves that reflect investor confidence in what his policies might bring. Compare this to the last few years under Biden, and the difference is striking. The market barely budged during Biden’s presidency; even when he contracted COVID-19, it was business as usual. With Trump back, though, there’s an undeniable surge of optimism. Let’s look at what’s happening across the major assets and what it could mean for us traders in the days ahead. S&P 500 (SPX) The S&P 500 spiked from $5,704 to $6,018 on election night—a powerful rally that signals investor optimism. It seems the market is embracing Trump’s expected focus on tax cuts and pro-business policies. This kind of jump doesn’t happen without a reason; investors are clearly betting that Trump’s return will be good for corporate America and, by extension, for the economy. Gold (XAU/USD) In times of uncertainty, gold usually rallies as investors look for safe havens. But on election night, we saw the opposite: XAU/USD dropped from $2,750 to $2,643 per troy ounce. This decline tells us that investors feel less inclined to hedge their bets with gold, opting instead for assets tied to economic growth. When people pull out of safe havens, it's often a sign they’re feeling pretty good about what’s ahead. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar had its own rally, with the DXY climbing from 103.3 to 105.4. This spike reflects confidence in the U.S. economy’s potential under Trump’s leadership. With the dollar gaining strength, it’s clear that investors expect strong economic fundamentals and possibly higher interest rates—both of which could keep the dollar in demand. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) The Dow also rallied, jumping from $41,649 to $44,173. This boost is especially interesting because it reflects optimism in sectors like manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure—industries Trump has supported in the past. Investors are likely betting on policy moves that could provide a lift to U.S. industries, potentially driving corporate profits higher. WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Looking forward, I’m expecting WTI prices to come under pressure as Trump likely revisits his focus on domestic oil production. If he revives the “drill, baby, drill” approach, we could see supply levels increase, which would weigh on prices. This potential shift in energy policy is something to keep an eye on, as it could create fresh trading opportunities. The Big Picture From stocks to the dollar, the market’s reaction seems to signal that Trump’s return is seen as positive for growth and stability. Reflecting on his previous term, I remember trading seemed almost simpler—beyond economic reports, following Trump’s statements (especially on Twitter) often gave insight into market sentiment. We might be looking at a similar environment now. Final Thoughts for Traders Trump’s re-election sets the stage for market dynamics we’ve seen before, with a familiar blend of optimism and volatility. For traders, this could mean more straightforward strategies, particularly by keeping an eye on policy shifts and economic indicators. With Trump’s leadership back in play, I believe the next four years could be some of the best trading years we’ve seen. Whether you’re in stocks, commodities, or forex, it’s clear the market is responding—and as traders, there’s a lot we can take away from that.
Editors' picks
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldCartel
24