BITCOIN BULLISH TO $77,000 (UPDATE)Every time BTC prices to jump up, you can see sellers come back in & knock the price back down in its current range. This adds stronger confirmation for me that price will drop soon towards our grey 'supply zone'. Patiently waiting.
Once price taps in and ONLY if I see a clear 3 Sub-Wave (A,B,C) move, I will look to open buy positions.
J-DXY
DXY: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 100.626
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Levels discussed on livestream 25th September25th September
DXY: Retracing from 100.20, could retest 100.60, look for rejection to continue lower to 100 and 99.70 major support level.
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6310 SL 20 TP 50
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6880 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3345 SL 40 TP 80
EURUSD: Buy 1.1205 SL 15 TP 45
USDJPY: Could range between 145 and 143, look for breakout potential
USDCHF: Buy 0.8470 SL 20 TP 80
USDCAD: Sell 1.3420 SL 25 TP 55
Gold: Bounce off 2652 could trade to 2670 with major level at 2700
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 100.056.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 99.322 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Will ongoing risk-on theme keep dampening the US dollar further?Macro theme:
- On Tue, PBoC surprised investors with a new set of support measures that positively impact risky assets. This unexpected move has injected a fresh wave of optimism into the markets.
-In contrast, the latest data from the US revealed a surprising decline in consumer confidence, which fell to 98.7 this month from a revised 105.6 in Aug. This marked the most significant drop since Aug 2021, sparking concerns about the health of the US economy.
- As a result, market expectations for another 0.5% rate cut by the Fed at its Nov meeting have increased significantly. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a move jumped to 60.7% from 53% just a day earlier. This shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance has further weakened the US dollar as investors become more risk-tolerant.
Technical theme:
- On the 4-hour chart, DXY broke its support area of 100.55-100.60 and confirmed its downward movement. The price is trading below both EMAs by a fair distance, and there is a risk of a potential mean reversion if it tests a strong psychological level, such as 100.00, ahead.
- If DXY extends its decline, it may retest and find psychological support around 100.00, confluence with its descending channel's lower bound.
- Meanwhile, DXY may recover to fill its gap and retest the broken area around 100.55-100.60 before resuming its downward movement.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
U.S. Dollar Index is near to fall. Soon..The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against basket of other six major currencies, extends its losses for the 5th consecutive week in a row, hovering below 102 points during the U.S. regular hours on Monday, August 19.
Over the past week, Gold spot (XAUUSD) has topped $2500 per ounce psychological high also, minting new all the history peak, while Forex Eur/Usd (EURUSD) pair just has flashed a positive 2024 YTD return, jumping above 1.10 psychological degree.
The US Dollar continues to weaken following dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which have increased a new portion of expectations for an interest rate cut by the central bank in September. Furthermore, last week’s US economic data revealed that both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) suggest that inflation is easing.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stressed on Sunday that the US central bank should adopt a gradual approach to lowering borrowing costs, according to the Financial Times. Daly countered economists' concerns that the US economy is facing a sharp slowdown that would warrant rapid interest rate cuts.
Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that central bank officials should be careful not to maintain a restrictive policy longer than necessary. Although it's uncertain whether the Fed will cut interest rates next month, failing to do so could negatively impact the labor market, according to CNBC.
Additionally, the decline in the US yields contributes to downward pressure for the Greenback. 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.05% and 3.85%, respectively, at the time of writing.
This week, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech.
In a bottom line, the major technical graph for the US Dollar Index (DXY) indicates on possible huge decline for the next upcoming 12 to 18 months.
The secondary RSI(14) graph indicates also, the bearish sentiment prevails.
XAU/USD UpdateGold prices are pushing higher, defying expectations amid the strengthening U.S. dollar. Despite the dollar's growth, the precious metal continues to climb, hitting new highs with no visible resistance in sight. The geopolitical landscape is providing a strong tailwind, further fueling its upward momentum.
Currently, gold is trading close to its all-time peak, as buyers maintain their bullish stance. The backdrop of recent Federal Reserve statements, China’s aggressive economic stimulus (with the People's Bank of China launching an unprecedented wave of support), and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are all supporting the rally. As the largest consumer of gold globally, China's economic moves add a significant layer of influence to the metal’s trajectory.
Gold traditionally benefits during times of geopolitical instability, and the current situation is no exception. Moreover, the Federal Reserve continues to hint at a potential 0.5% rate cut, adding more fuel to the bullish sentiment.
Key resistance levels are marked at 2634 and 2640, while support can be found at 2623, 2614, and 2602. The broader outlook suggests that gold’s upward trend is poised to persist. Should it manage to consolidate above the previous day's peak, a further advance toward 2650-2660-2675 becomes likely in the medium to short term. However, with significant news on the horizon, a brief correction may occur before the next leg up.
SELL GOLDIn todays session we are looking for selling opportunity in Gold. Gold has been a raging beast lately. Todays Asia session has a surprise liquidity sweep, we are anticipating a pullback from this high 2628.27 with stops above 2638.724. Target the 2592 levels. Always use proper risk management and don't risk what you can't afford to loose. Cheers and best of luck, gwg.
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 100.483
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY Analysis: Wyckoff Accumulation Suggests Upside PotentialDXY Analysis: Wyckoff Accumulation Suggests Upside Potential
The Dollar Index (DXY) recently bottomed following an extended period of consolidation, marking the end of a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern on the chart. This phase of accumulation indicates that the dollar has likely built enough momentum for a bullish move. In the near term, I expect DXY to rise toward 101.6, followed by further strength taking it to 105.55 by the end of the year. As the accumulation phase transitions into a markup phase, the dollar is set for a period of appreciation.
Russell 2000 Gearing Up for a Breakout at Structural ResistanceThe Russell 2000 is closing in on the upper boundary of its structural zone around the 2276 mark, with bullish momentum pushing broader indices toward record levels. This wave of optimism could also lift the Russell 2000 to new heights.
On the daily chart, the index is once again approaching the critical 2276 level. In shorter time frames, fresh bullish formations are emerging, hinting at the potential for continued upward momentum.
Should the price break past the 2240 threshold, the chances of further upside grow significantly. A decisive move above this zone would likely drive the Russell 2000 higher, opening the door for more gains.
Wait for the breakout to come for the trade to be active.
Traders, if you found this idea helpful or have your own insights to share, feel free to drop a comment. I’d love to hear your thoughts!
XAU/USD : Will Gold Reach $3000? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price has risen to $2640, marking a new high. These days, we are witnessing gold setting new all-time highs daily, and many analysts, including myself, expect that if the downward trend in interest rates and the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon continue, we could potentially see gold rise to $3000 in the mid-term. However, if the price closes below $2640 today and doesn't break a new high, we could expect a correction down to $2617 as the first target. Gold is currently trading around $2632.
EUR/USD : Euro will Fall ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around the 1.11360 level. I expect the price to rise to 1.11560 to fill the FVG, and after seeing a suitable negative reaction, we can look to join with another Sell position! (This analysis will be updated).
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Levels discussed during livestream24th September
DXY: Currently just below 101, needs to break 100.85 for more downside to 100.60 support level.
NZDUSD: Look for reaction at round number resistance 0.63
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6810 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3380 SL 30 TP 60
EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 15 TP 50
USDJPY: Sell 143.70 SL 50 TP 155
USDCHF: Sell 0.8460 SL 25 TP 50
USDCAD: Do Nothing, in the middle of support / resistance level
Gold: Upside to continue, looking to buy dips, up to 2650
Reading The Tape on USDJPY (ICT) - 24th Sept 2024 In this video I practice reading the tape using ICT Concepts, as well as offering general advice to those using his concepts or otherwise.
I hope that you find this video insightful. If you have any questions, leave a comment and I will be glad to answer.
- R2F
EURUSDHello Traders!
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
EURUSD is moving within an ascending channel and has recently reached a resistance zone, causing its upward movement to temporarily stall. It is expected that after a price correction, the bullish trend will resume.
As long as the price does not break below the identified support zone, the potential for further upward movement remains. A break below this support zone could signal a shift towards a bearish trend.
If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Buy USDJPY Bullish ChannelThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Descending Triangle pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 143.77, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 145.38
2nd Support – 146.08
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 143.00. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Dollar Index SellAs dollar index had expierenced waterfall during new on US session and it has stopped over its weekly support and is also forming a falling wedge pattern which is a Bearish Continuation pattern now and it has also completed ABCD waves and going to complete its last E wave if everything goes inline after E Waves it will break down its weekly to daily Support and will start falling again after a reset market sentiment is also indicating that DXY will continue falling also the confluence is price is trading in down trend on daily to H4 to H1 TF and bullish in weekly and monthly TF according to my anylisis DXY will keep falling till its weekly base acting as support on 98.00
Gold 1HR Intra-Day Chart 23.09.2024As you can see on the 4H TF Gold has smashed our $2,630 target as I said would happen! I'm now currently looking to short the market. When price reaches Wave IV, I'm looking at 2 possibilities;
1. Price slows down & buyers come in again, ready to push Gold towards 1 more new ATH.
2. Sellers smash through Wave IV target & carry on dropping down long term.