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Working off the rise in the dollar index DXY. H4 09.09.2024Working off the rise in the dollar index DXY Last week I expected the dollar index to rise to the area of 102 and higher. We made a pullback on it, but the depth of the correction was bigger than initially expected, but it did not affect the result. Now they are making a rebound to 102, but then might correction around 102.30. On Thursday we will know the US inflation for August and the unemployment rate on Friday. On this news the main movements on the dollar will be made.
TVC:DXYLong
by KovachTrader
Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) H4 ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a Formation of well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2500, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2440 2nd Support – 2400 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
15
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 8th—> Sept 13th)Hello Investors! 🌟 September started with a sharp decline as investors pruned risk assets from their portfolios amid concerns over US economic data and rising worries about growth. Let’s break down the key events that influenced the markets this week. 📉 Market Overview: The week opened with a broad sell-off across equities, commodities, and crypto, as US Treasury yields dropped to their lowest levels in more than a year. Disappointing August ISM manufacturing data set the tone for a week of worse-than-expected economic readings, stoking fears that the elusive “soft landing” may be slipping further away. US equities gave back all the gains made in the second half of August, with much of the selling attributed to multiple compression, particularly in technology stocks. Nvidia was the most prominent example, with its stock falling ~25% from its earnings peak amid historic daily declines in market cap. The S&P 500 faced resistance near the 5,600 level, struggling above 20x next year’s earnings. By the end of the week, the S&P lost 4.2%, the Dow dropped 2.9%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.8%, marking the tech index’s worst decline since November 2022. Stock Market Performance: 📉 S&P 500: Down by 4.2% 📉 Dow Jones: Down by 2.9% 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 5.8% Economic Indicators: WTI Crude Oil: Prices slid to their lowest levels since June 2023, prompting OPEC+ to extend its 2.2M bpd voluntary production cuts through November. Bank of Canada: Cut rates by 25 basis points in a move to boost economic growth, while PM Trudeau faced political challenges after losing support from a key coalition partner. JOLTS Jobs Data: Missed estimates significantly, falling below 8M job openings for just the second time this year. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers dropped below a key Fed gauge, reinforcing the case for rate cuts. ADP Employment Report: Hit a three-year low, showing declining pay growth for those who didn’t change jobs, adding to concerns about labor market weakness. Fed’s Beige Book: Revealed flat or declining economic activity in nine out of twelve districts, suggesting economic sluggishness that could influence the Fed’s next moves. August Jobs Report: Showed further labor market deceleration, with downward revisions to June and July payrolls. The report kept the door open for more aggressive Fed action, with FOMC officials signaling that at least 50 basis points will be debated at the September 18th meeting. Treasury and FX Markets: Yield Curve: Continued to normalize as the US 2-year yield traded 4 basis points below the 10-year rate. Futures Markets: Priced in over 100 bps of cuts by the end of 2024 and ~225 bps by September 2025. Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: Traded close to its August lows, while the VIX volatility index rose above 23 but remained below early August highs. Corporate News: Docusign: Posted strong quarterly results and guidance, getting back on track after struggles during the post-pandemic period. Hewlett Packard Enterprises: Delivered respectable earnings but saw shares fall, as investors were unimpressed with guidance. Broadcom: Reported an uninspiring Q3, leaving investors with more questions about the pace of AI growth, contributing to broader tech sector pressure. Nvidia: There was speculation that NVDA had received a subpoena from the DOJ, but this turned out to be false news. While they are under investigation, no formal subpoena has been served yet. M&A News: Nippon Steel’s Acquisition of US Steel: Faces challenges as reports suggest the Biden Administration may block the deal on national security grounds. Verizon: Agreed to acquire Frontier Communications for $9.6B, expanding its fiber network and positioning itself for future growth.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
DXY's Trend in Question: Support Holding, But Bulls need 102In my Friday analysis, I mentioned that if the DXY drops below the support zone, defined by the recent low and the year's starting price, we could expect further downside. Initially, following the release of the NFP data, the price did decline, but it quickly reversed after reaching the support level, forming a strong bullish reversal candle with a long tail on the chart. While we can't confirm a trend reversal yet and USD bulls are still not in out of the woods, as long as this support holds, there is a strong possibility of a move to the upside. For a clearer medium-term outlook, we need a break above the 102 level. If this happens, the path to 104 should open up, and we can expect the price to rise toward that zone.
TVC:DXY
by Mihai_Iacob
XAUUSD 9/9/24XU is still sitting in a clear bullish higher timeframe bias but we have pulled back as we stated last week, the higher timeframe tells us we are going bullish and we have a nice clear pullback after a push to the upside, this now opens things up for a nice push to the next ATH remember we opened up a new demand, so from here bullish is likely! BUT we can drop into the liquid stored at our lows as a lot of retail have their stops placed at closer lows. I am looking for a clear shift bullish or a drop into the lower end liquid then to see price run to the new ATH! Trade your plan and stick to your risk!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by rosshayes
EURUSD 9/9/24Starting this week with EU, as we always do. As you can see, we are pretty much at the centre of our current range, leading us to believe we are building liquidity on both sides. Currently, we have swept out the high from last week during a news push. After this sweep, we dropped lower than our previous low, establishing a bearish range and putting the price in a position to create a new low and drop into bearish order flow at the lower end of our higher time frame range. For now, I am waiting for the price to give us a clear move. I am more inclined to see the price drop down and then run higher into the last major high. However, as mentioned above, we have potential for new sell moves, so we will wait for something clear to establish. Trade safe, stick to your risk, and follow your plan.
by rosshayes
Tesla Stock Correction: Eyeing a $300 Target? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the Tesla stock chart on the weekly (logarithmic) timeframe, we can see that, as expected, the price entered the supply zone at $235. After reaching this level, the stock faced a decline and corrected down to $210! It is likely that we will see further correction in Tesla's stock price. However, as mentioned in the previous analysis, due to the recent interest rate cuts, we might gradually witness a price increase after this initial correction. I am forecasting a mid-term target for Tesla stock above $300. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ArmanShabanTrading
2
DXY - HIGHER TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS Here is the expected DXY path for the incoming weeks. We are working with a complex ABC pattern. We are currently in major wave B ( ZIGZAG Pattern ). Zigzag pattern ( 5-3-5 ) is made up of 3 waves: Wave A = 5 waves Wave B = 3 waves Wave C = 5 waves Working with Wave C, we still have subwave 5 in order for major wave B to be completed. What we are looking for now is the completion of subwave 4 around 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci levels. Watching the rejection of the 50 EMA to ride the final leg of wave C. Will see price will react at the fib levels and update later.
TVC:DXY
by Tradenessfx
EURUSD Higher Timeframe Analysis Looking at the higher timeframe analysis, we can see that EURUSD is moving impulsively in the last period of time. Impulsive move is made up of 5 waves - Wave 1 = Wave 3 = wave 5 = 5 waves - Wave 2 = wave 4 = 3 waves We are now in subwave C of wave 4. Expecting a move down to our buy zone where we'll be looking for buys targeting 1.13 level. If interested in trading subwave c, watch for a pullback and ride the move down after the breakout. Good Luck and trade safe!
by Tradenessfx
GBPUSD - Short Trade IdeaHello hello, We have a short trade idea on GU for the coming week, anticipating the next 12h candle. I am expecting a move into at least one of the iFVGs on 12h timeframe before a move lower with multiple targets graded by my probability hierarchy. Last week we had NFP which took price to a relatively high level. As is said, "The bodies tell the story and the wicks do the damage". And as usual, during these super high impact news drivers, the wicks can go above and beyond what is normally expected of them. As the bodies are being respectful, I am keen to anticipate the aforementioned trade. There is more imbalances below that I anticipate price will be drawn to, creating more structure on the sub-weekly timeframes in order to move higher, which is still my current overall bias for XXXUSD pairs until price shows me otherwise on the DXY. For now, I will still follow what the PD Arrays are printing. In terms of stoploss, the swing high would be a bit far, but as usual I would be waiting on the lower timeframe for a higher RR trade at least to Target 1. From there I would have to see what PD Arrays are being formed on the lower hourly timeframes. Let's see what happens! - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
Sell AUD/USD Bearish Flag The AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.6733, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.6662 2nd Support – 0.6626 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.6760. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
14
XAUUSD - Short Trade IdeaThis trade idea is based on buyside liquidity being induced in the form of equal highs, before a retracement into my signature R2F gap on the weekly timeframe. Regardless of what happens when price gets there, this trade is relying on the scenario of it trading down into it before moving higher. My current POIs are the two 12h iFVGS. Price either only trades into the lower one or reaches into the higher one. I will leave that to your own study and PD Arrays, structure, and candles printing on the lower timeframe to determine that. However, it is important to also consider time of day and upcoming economic news events as well. Stoploss above the equal highs above if not using a lower timeframe analysis. If they get run, then I will have to reconsider this trade idea. Target 1 is the 12h candle low. Target 2 is the equal lows into the 1W R2F gap. Good luck - R2F
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Road_2_Funded
1
XAUUSD | Trade idea- **Gold Price:** Gold is holding above $2,500 ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll data, having reached a high of $2,523 yesterday and currently trading around $2,517. - **US Economy Expectations:** - August Non-Farm Payroll is expected to increase by 164,000, up from 114,000 in the previous month. - Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.5%, from 6.4%. - **Rate Cut Probability:** The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has decreased to 57% from 70% a week ago (CME Fed Watch Tool). - **US Dollar Index:** - Bullish outlook with minor support around 101.20/100.50. - Near-term resistance at 102/102.80. - **Gold Price Drivers:** - **Global Stock Market:** Bearish, which is positive for gold. - **US Dollar Index:** Bullish, which is negative for gold. - **US 10-Year Bond Yield:** Bearish, positive for gold. - **Technical Analysis:** - **Support:** Near-term support at $2,470; a break below targets $2,449/$2,430. - **Resistance:** Minor resistance at $2,520; a break above could lead to $2,525/$2,530.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by DCFX-TA
YENOCALYPSE. TO BE CONTINUE...The yen has posted several outsized moves in recent days, appreciating sharply on Thursday and Friday from 38-year lows of 161.96 per dollar, sudden rallies that market participants said had the signs of currency intervention. Bank of Japan data released on Tuesday suggested Tokyo may have spent 2.14 trillion yen ($13.5 billion) intervening on Friday. Combined with the estimated amount spent on Thursday, Japan is suspected to have bought nearly 6 trillion yen via intervention last week. In technical terms, USDJPY Fx pair has broken its major Bullish 7-months trend. What is next? I think retrace is possible.. But just to deliver much more to 152nd ground. // Mega stocks are in ruins..
by Pandorra
2
DXY Will Go Lower! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 10h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 100.721. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 99.278. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
Pre Non Farm Market Analysis6th September DXY: Currently just below 100.90, could consolidate/retrace briefly, looking downside to 100.55 support level (NFP Pending), could bounce from support NZDUSD: Buy 0.6245 SL 20 TP 50 (DXY Weakness) AUDUSD: Buy 0.6755 SL 25 TP 65 (DXY Weakness) GBPUSD: Sell 1.3170 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY Strength) EURUSD: Buy 1.1145 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY Weakness) USDJPY: Watch out between 142 and 141 support area, possible bounce! USDCHF: Look for reaction at 0.8345 key support level. USDCAD: Stay out (CAD Employment pending) Gold: Retracing, look for reaction at 2506, possible bounce, if broken, could trade down to 2480
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
DXY- Dive under 100?In my previous DXY analysis I said that, although the index reversed from the beginning of the year support, bulls should not get too excited as long as the index is under 102.30 zone. In the next days, the index resumed its fall and now is trading back towards recent lows. Today's NFP data could bring clarification and if the index falls below the recent lows, 99.50 is exposed. For a bullish scenario, we need a reversal from this zone which could also be the beginning of a double-bottom pattern.
TVC:DXY
by Mihai_Iacob
EURUSD → A retest of the liquidity zone. Ready to go to 1.130FX:EURUSD is testing the liquidity zone within the correction. False breakdown of the channel boundary may form another bullish potential for continuation of growth to 1.1300 The currency pair forms a false breakdown of 1.1123, after which it enters the correction phase amid a strong market. The price is testing 0.236 fibo on D1, forming a false breakdown we get a reaction in the form of a pullback. On H4 the situation is even more interesting: false breakdown of the support conglomerate: 0.5 fibo + channel boundaries, which only strengthens the bullish set-up. Today the focus is on CPI in the Eurozone, as well as Core PCE in the US. High volatility is possible and the news may set a short-term tone in the market. Resistance levels: 1.1099, 1.1201 Support levels: channel boundary, 1.1061, 1.1047 The task of the bulls is to keep the defense above the resistance of the ascending channel, as well as above the level of 1.1099 - 1.11, in this case the price will consolidate above the lower boundary of the new bullish channel, which will open for us the potential for growth to 1.1300. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:EURUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
4
DXY Levels to Watch Ahead of NFPLooking at the chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY), the world’s reserve currency remains in a well-defined downtrend despite last week’s bounce. The near-term reaction in the US dollar will likely follow the likelihood of a 25bps rate cut from the Fed (bullish) vs. 50bps rate cut (bearish) as outlined in the chart above, but ultimately, the dominant downtrend and potential for consistent interest rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in the coming year could keep the greenback under pressure as we move through the fall regardless. -MW
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom