Levels discussed on livestream 5th September 5th September
DXY: Currently at 101.25, needs to break 50% retracement level, to trade down to 100.90 (ADP Pending)
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6165 SL 20 TP 60 (if DXY recovery)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6685 SL 20 TP 45 (if DXY recovery)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3080 SL 25 TP 100
EURUSD: Buy 1.1105 SL 20 TP 55
USDJPY: Sell 143.20 SL 40 TP 120
USDCHF: Sell 0.8450 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: Sell 1.35 SL 20 TP 55
Gold: At 61.8%, if broken, above 2508 could trade up to 2520
J-DXY
DXY / US DOLLAR INDEX🔍 DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Analysis: 4-Hour Timeframe 📉
The DXY chart on a 4-hour timeframe highlights significant upcoming times where price movements may present trading opportunities. It’s essential to analyze these signals in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• BUY DATE - September 12, 2024, 04:00 - Green Line: This time indicates a potential local low, offering favorable conditions for accumulating DXY or entering long positions.
• BUY DATE - September 19, 2024, 00:00 - Green Line: Another potential local low, suggesting favorable conditions for buying.
• BUY DATE - October 7, 2024, 06:00 - Green Line: This time marks another potential local low, indicating favorable conditions to enter long positions.
When working with this 4-hour timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few hours. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
DXY A NEW BULL MARKET TO BEGIN from 99/98 Zone DEFLATION PHASEThe chart posted is the cash US $ based on the fib relationships we should see one last drop below 100.60 target and drop into a 98.14 to 99.60 focus on 98.88 . This should also see the PEAK in GOLD the SP 500 as Most markets around the world . The cycle of deflationary forces should VERY CLEAR come mid oct and be in force for the next 18.8 months to as long as 3.2 years Data based on ALL DATA going back to 1902 and some of which s dates back to 1626
The Beginning of DXY DeclineThe DXY (US Dollar Index) is showing strong signs of entering a downward trend. The attached chart reinforces this view, highlighting the development of Wave 4, which is likely nearing completion. A continuation of the decline in Wave 5 is expected, in line with technical analysis and external factors.
Wave Structure: The chart clearly shows the DXY in a corrective pattern, with Wave 4 approaching its peak around the 0.618 retracement level at 102.030. Once this wave concludes, we can anticipate the continuation of the downward trend towards the completion of Wave 5, likely targeting levels below 100.
Bearish Channel: The DXY remains within a well-defined descending channel, indicating sustained selling pressure. This suggests that the overall momentum is bearish, with further declines expected as the channel holds.
External Factors: Slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth, particularly in key areas such as manufacturing and employment, has weakened the dollar’s outlook. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt rate hikes are dampening investor confidence in the dollar.
In conclusion, both technical analysis and external economic indicators suggest the DXY is likely to continue its decline. Traders should remain cautious as Wave 5 approaches, with potential downside targets below 100 as the dollar weakens further.
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 101.675.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 102.148 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 101.769
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Pre-BoC interest rate decision4th September
DXY: Still in consolidation. Looking for downside, needs to break 101.50 (23.6%), could trade down to 101.15
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6165 SL 20 TP 60
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6750 SL 20 TP 70
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3160 SL 30 TP 60
EURUSD: Buy 1.1080 SL 25 TP 65
USDJPY: Sell 144.70 SL 40 TP 110
USDCHF: Sell 0.8450 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: Sell 1.3580 SL 30 TP 60
Gold: Watch 2480-2470 support area,
If held look for bounce, broken could trade down to 2440
Could price bounce from here?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could reverse to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 101.52
1st Support: 101.04
1st Resistance: 102.14
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Disclaimer:
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DXY Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 101.500 zone, DXY was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 101.500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GOLD → Change of Mood (local). Correction phaseFX:XAUUSD is breaking the structure of the ascending channel amid the counter-trend correction of the dollar (fundamental reasons). Price closes in the range of 2526 - 2477, what could this mean?
On D1, the market is bullish both locally and globally. But, fundamentally and geopolitically the situation is slightly changing, which favorably affects the dollar exchange rate, against which gold goes into a local phase of correction. There is low liquidity in the market today due to the closed US market.
On H1, the focus is on the resistance 2505 - 2510, sma. False breakdown and price consolidation below these zones will confirm the absence of bullish potential, which may lead to price correction towards the lower boundary of the key range.
Support levels: 2483 (D1), 2493, 2477
Resistance levels: 2505, 2510, sma
The focus is on the global range 2526 - 2477, the price continues to trade inside and does not hint at a possible exit from this channel, accordingly, it is best to use the inturidian trading strategy. The main target is liquidity below the key support zones
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
XAU/USD : Ready for SHORT ? By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we see that the price has returned to the supply zone of $2524 to $2529, and I expect further correction from this area. Note that the primary scenario is bearish, and if the price breaks above $2532, this scenario will be invalidated. If the decline starts from this zone, the potential targets are $2518, $2512, and $2500, respectively!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
DXY: Market Is Looking Down! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 101.725
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Levels discussed on Livestream 3rd September3rd September
DXY: Still in consolidation. Watch the resistance at 102 round number. Looking for downside, needs to break 101.50 (23.6%), could trade down to 101.15
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6205 SL 20 TP 60
AUDUSD: Retracing, could retest 0.68 resistance level
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3170 SL 40 TP 90
EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.10 round number support level
USDJPY: Sell 145.70 SL 250 TP 80
USDCHF: Could trade higher, look for reaction at resistance level
USDCAD: Could trade lower, look for reaction at support 1.3440
Gold: Choppy price action, until 2508, beyond that, could trade up to 2520
DXY - US Dollar Strengthens Above 101.70 Market AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing renewed strength, climbing above the 101.70 mark after a relatively flat Monday. This move extends the momentum from last week, where the DXY gained over 1%. As the market braces for key labor data later this week, all eyes are on the August jobs report, set to be released on Friday. This report is expected to reveal a solid increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could provide further support to the US Dollar.
Technical Analysis: Reversal from Key Demand Area
From a technical standpoint, the DXY has already exhibited a significant reversal from a key Demand area around 100.535. As forecasted, the price rebounded from the 100.515 level, confirming the strength of this support zone. This reversal was anticipated based on previous analysis, and it has played out as expected, setting the stage for the current bullish momentum.
Sentiment and Seasonal Trends Support a Bullish Outlook
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report adds an interesting layer to the analysis, showing that retail traders are aggressively short on the US Dollar. This aggressive short positioning often acts as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that there might be further upside potential for the DXY.
Additionally, seasonal trends are aligning with a possible bullish rally in the US Dollar. Historically, this period has seen increased demand for the USD, and the current setup appears to be following that pattern. When combining the COT data with the technical bounce from the Demand area, the outlook for the US Dollar remains positive.
Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting USD Strength
The DXY's move above 101.70 is supported by a confluence of technical and sentiment factors. The reversal from the Demand area, coupled with the contrarian signal from the COT report and favorable seasonality, all point towards a continued increase in the value of the US Dollar. As the market awaits the crucial NFP report on Friday, the stage is set for potential further gains in the DXY, reinforcing our bullish outlook for the US Dollar.
Previous Forecast
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DXY- Where to?After forming a double top above the 106 level, with the second top occurring at the beginning of July, the DXY (US Dollar Index) began to decline.
After breaking the 104 neckline of this pattern, the index tumbled to the key support level at 100.50, which coincides with the price level from the start of the year.
As expected, the price started to recover, and at the time of writing, it is trading at 101.66. Although there has been a rebound from support, it's too early to consider the trend reversed. For a confirmed reversal, the price needs to break back above the 102.50 zone.
If this happens, the price could continue upward, with a longer-term target around the 106 level and an interim resistance at 104.
Conversely, if the index fails to break above 102.50 and drops back to 100.50, there is a high probability of a further decline, with 98 as the next target.
CRB Index: Impact on Commodities, Inflation, and the DollarIt’s been some time since we last looked at the Thomson Reuters CRB Index, a key indicator for tracking commodity performance and gauging inflation. With inflation softening recently, it’s not surprising that the CRB Index is also reversing. The chart shows a three-wave rally from the 2023 lows, which suggests a corrective movement in an ABC formation, as identified in Elliott Wave theory.
When a correction like this concludes, the next move typically retraces the previous rally. Looking at the CRB Index, we expect prices to move even lower, possibly down to 241. This decline could be further driven by falling crude oil prices, especially if OPEC increases supply as recently announced.
Some may wonder how this will impact the USD. Currently, the correlation is that lower commodities lead to lower CPI, which in turn suggests a lower USD due to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Until the Fed cuts rates a few times, the correlation between a lower CRB and a lower USD could remain in play due to falling US yields. However, once rate cuts are nearing their end, that’s when the dollar may find a bottom.