DXY Bearish Setup
Entry: 97.50 (current price)
Target (TP): 96.500 or below
Stop Loss (SL): ~97.80 (above recent swing high or resistance)
Risk Management: Essential — position size based on SL distance and account size
🔍 Trade Rationale:
Technical View: Price may be forming a lower high, suggesting possible downside continuation.
Fundamental Pressure:
Market cautious on Fed rate path
Tariff uncertainty could weaken USD
Upcoming FOMC minutes may add pressure if dovish signals emerge
J-DXY
Could the price reverse from here?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 97.90
1st Support: 96.74
1st Resistance: 98.67
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Sell the EURO vs USD?Welcome back to the Mid-Week Analysis for Wed, July 8th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
EURO and USD Index.
The USD is seeing some strength off the tariffs Trump is declaring... and extending the grace period again on. This dragging down the EURO a bit, as it is printing bearish candles for Mond and Tues.
Will Wed print another bearish candle? Are we heading for a full retracement in the EURUSD?
This could be the scenario forming that I eluded to in my Weekly Forecast video: Buy The Dips and Sell The Rips.
Enjoy!
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DXY LOCAL SHORT|
✅DXY is about to retest a key structure level of 98.000
Which implies a high likelihood of a move down
As some market participants will be taking profit from long positions
While others will find this price level to be good for selling
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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Dollar Index Analysis – Trump, Hegemony & a Dangerous Disconnect🇺🇸💣 Dollar Index Analysis – Trump, Hegemony & a Dangerous Disconnect 📉⚠️
Hey Traders,
FXPROFESSOR here with a deep-dive update on the Dollar Index (DXY) – and this one hits both technicals and macro geopolitics.
🧠 Macro Context:
For decades, the U.S. strategically outsourced much of its basic manufacturing capacity to China—everything from screws, cables, plastics, and circuit boards. This freed America to focus on high-margin sectors like technology, finance, and defense innovation.
But this efficiency came at a cost: dependency. You can't be the military and economic hegemon of the world if you don’t manufacture your own basic components. That’s the foundation of hard power—and Trump understands this well.
🔁 Now Trump is trying to reverse that.
He knows America can’t win long-term without reclaiming production and export competitiveness – and a strong dollar kills that dream.
So what’s the play?
✅ Trump brings the volatility
✅ Fed stays cautious
✅ Dollar weakens... but without actual rate cuts
That’s the scary part 👇
📉 💵 Dollar Strength vs. Treasury Stress
This is also why the U.S. Treasury market is under stress. If the U.S. wants to rebuild domestic production, reduce trade deficits, and support massive fiscal spending, it needs to weaken the dollar and attract internal capital—not depend on foreign buyers of debt.
A strong dollar = trade imbalance, hollowed industry, and rising debt service costs.
A normalized dollar = controlled exports, internal manufacturing, and a potential realignment of global capital flows.
📉 The Chart: "The Year of the Normalized Dollar"
🟡 This is a continuation of the same chart I published over a year ago.
Key Rejection Zone: 100.965 (former support, now resistance)
Current Trajectory: Approaching my long-held target at 94.677
Macro Message: The dollar is dropping without a Fed pivot
Worrying Signal: If we hit major support while the Fed stays tight... the entire market may need to reprice expectations. That could shake equities and crypto alike.
🧊 This is not a clean-cut dollar short anymore . It’s already priced in, and that’s why I’m spooked.
🧭 What I’m Watching:
Will Trump’s trade war accelerate this move?
Will Powell finally cut in September—or double down?
Will the support at 94.5 hold, or break and open a much larger macro shift?
This chart is no longer just technical. It’s political. It’s strategic. It’s a chessboard for hegemony.
🎥 FULL 20-min video breakdown is now live!
I cover DXY, Bitcoin, tech stocks, gold, silver, DAX, BTC.D and much more
Watch it if you want the full map of what I’m thinking this week.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
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30M Insight: EURUSD Buy Limit ReadyGood Mornıng Traders;☀️
Based on a 30-minute analysis, I’ve identified a shift in EURUSD market structure. I’ll be waiting for price to reach my level with a buy limit order.
📥 BUY LIMIT ORDER: 1.17180
🛑 STOP LOSS: 1.16946
🎯 TP1: 1.17275
🎯 TP2: 1.17412
🎯 TP3: 1.17649
📊 Risk / Reward Ratio: 2.00
Patience meets precision. Let the market come to you.
🧠 Master your mindset with iron discipline.
Never fear the trade—let the trade fear you.
Keep your motivation high and your focus sharper than ever.
-----
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Huge thanks to everyone who shows love and appreciation! 🙏
DXY Trade Setup✅ Trade Setup Details:
Entry: 96.850
Stop Loss (SL): 96.650
Take Profit (TP): 97.350
✅ This is a good RRR. A 2.5:1 ratio means you're risking $1 to potentially earn $2.50 — favorable for consistent trading.
📈 Chart & Technical Analysis (based on your image):
✅ Entry is near the middle Bollinger Band and above Ichimoku cloud — a technical support zone.
✅ SL is placed below recent support and Ichimoku base, giving some buffer in case of volatility.
✅ TP at 97.350 aligns with the recent swing high or top of the breakout channel.
⚠️ Things to Watch:
If DXY drops below 96.700, it may signal weakness or a shift in sentiment — watch volume and price reaction.
If price stays above cloud and rising trendline, your trade remains valid.
🟢 Summary:
Bias: Bullish
Setup: Good technical entry with solid support below and clear resistance target.
Risk-to-Reward: Excellent (2.5:1)
Strategy: Hold unless price breaks below 96.650 with volume.
BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL - Markets are Ready to PUMP Again! At the 4th of July, the Independence Day, the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was signed into law by President Trump. In this idea I want to take a closer look at some points of this law and explain why I consider it VERY bullish for most of financial markets, and especially for crypto.
Here are some key points of the law:
Raises the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion, the largest single increase in U.S. history
Makes many Trump-era 2017 tax cuts permanent: keeps lower individual tax rates, preserves expanded standard deduction, retains corporate tax rate at 21%
Introduces new tax breaks: increases Child Tax Credit, exempts tips, overtime, and Social Security from federal income tax (with limitations)
Adds ~$150 billion to defense and another $150 billion toward border enforcement, including massive ICE budget increase
Trims SNAP food aid by ~$186–200 billion, tightening eligibility (e.g. raising work‑requirement age)
What changes can happen in the economy? Big tax breaks combined with increased expenses cause the growth of financial deficit, the projected by CBO deficit can reach $3 trillion. In this situation the only solution is increasing the national debt which makes Interest Rates climb higher (Yale’s Budget Lab forecasts a 1.2 pp increase in the 10‑year yield).
Why do I think this is bullish for most of stocks and mainly for crypto?
The increase of debt ceiling has always had a positive impact on the crypto and namely on $BTC. The best example is Fiscal Responsibility Act that was signed back in June 5, 2023. This act increased the debt ceiling for +$4.7 billion, after that Bitcoin surged upwards from $25,000 to $75,000 in ~half a year. Similar outcome can be expected now too.
Market perceives U.S. fiscal loosening as inflationary and dollar-weakening, making Bitcoin (as a decentralized and limited-supply asset) more attractive. TVC:DXY has already shown signs of weakness.
Large deficits often force future monetary easing or Fed bond buying to absorb debt. Lower interest rates and more liquidity are historically bullish for risk assets, including crypto.
Rising yields and bond sell-offs spook traditional markets. In this situation, Bitcoin becomes an attractive uncorrelated hedge for portfolios amid volatility in traditional assets.
To sum up , I believe the Big Beautiful Law is, to put it mildly, not good for US economy. However, local effects on stock & crypto markets can be considered positive for investors & traders. With this said, I believe we can expect CRYPTOCAP:BTC to reach $150,000 goal this year and mark this milestone as an ATH for the current bull cycle.
GOLD - SHORT TO $2,800 (UPDATE)Gold once again last night came back to test our resistance zone, after huge bullish momentum all yesterday. But again we saw a bearish rejection from our ‘supply zone’, pushing price back down 300 PIPS.
Being extremely careful here, as Gold is currently at a make or break sort of area.
GBP/USD - Bearish Channel (07.07.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3545
2nd Support – 1.3485
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EUR/USD Trade Plan – Sell Limit StrategyEUR/USD has shown signs of completing a 5-wave bullish structure on the 4H chart, with price now re-testing a key supply zone. A Sell Limit has been positioned at 1.17962, anticipating a sharp reversal back toward the order block zone.
🔍 Technical Analysis
The chart shows a clear Elliott Wave formation, with wave V forming a weak new high, indicating buyer exhaustion.
Price is approaching the 1.17960–1.18013 supply zone, previously unmitigated.
This zone also holds an Order Block (OB) and liquidity above wave III, making it a prime area for institutional sell triggers.
📌 Entry: 1.17962
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.18113
🎯 Target Zone: 1.17122
📈 Risk–Reward: 3R – 6R - 10r potential (depending on trade management)
🧠 Fundamental Outlook
The upcoming trading week is filled with market-moving events from both the US and Eurozone:
🇺🇸 Key USD Events
Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri): Forecast 147K; strong print = bullish USD.
Unemployment Rate: Expected at 4.1%.
Powell Speech, ISM Services PMI: Will impact rate expectations and USD strength.
🇪🇺 Key EUR Events
CPI Flash Estimates: Any surprise may shift ECB tone.
Lagarde Speaks: Markets listening for any policy hints after soft data.
🧩 The combination of a potentially strong USD and weakened Euro fundamentals adds weight to a bearish EUR/USD outlook.
💡 Why This Setup Works
Perfect Liquidity Trap: The zone is designed to trigger late buyers before reversal.
Clean Risk–Reward: Defined SL with a high-probability downside path.
Macro + Technical Confluence: Both align toward downside potential.
Target OB: Strong institutional demand seen at 1.1712 offers a natural take-profit zone.
⚠️ Execution Guidance
Enter only if price hits the Sell Limit zone cleanly.
Avoid execution during red news releases.
Partial TP suggested near 1.1740 (around 2R–3R) to lock early profit.
EURUSD Short, 08 JulyHTF Bearish Continuation & Intraday Confirmation
HTF bias remains bearish, reacting from W/D OB and completing the daily imbalance left from yesterday. Now looking for continuation lower, supported by a clean 4H OB.
📉 Confluence:
15m Decisional OB in play
5m OB entry zone with a clean 1m BOS
DXY gap + imbalance still open in our favor + Correlation between EU and DXY
Asia session structure aligned
🎯 Entry: Retest of 5m OB after 1m BOS
🛡️ SL: Above recent high, ~10 pips
📌 TP: Asia low – 1:3 RR
⚠️ Risk: OB is mid-Asia (less ideal), and DXY Daily imbalance not filled yet
Still a solid setup with structure + HTF narrative backing it.
Dollar Index-Stops At Gap ResistanceAfter just a temporary setback in stocks and a brief move higher in the dollar earlier this week, we’re once again seeing a strong reversal across the board. This comes after Donald Trump extended the July 9th tariff deadline to August 1st, giving more time for trade negotiations with various countries. That brought some optimism back into the markets, and if stocks continue to gain, the dollar index is likely to remain in its downtrend.
In fact, the dollar index stopped right at the June 26th gap near the 97.70 resistance level. We believe that the corrective price action from July 1st could now be coming to an end, and the market may resume lower—especially if we get a breakout below the corrective channel support near 97.
GH
Gold will continue with its bullish breakoutLooking for new highs to be made. Price has pushed bullish as trump started talking about the tariffs early today. Even though they are not supposed to discuss till the 9th. We can get a early move for the week. Monitoring the price action to see if I can get in where I fit in!
DXY Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY made a nice rebound
From the lows but will soon
Hit a horizontal resistance
Around 97.900 from where
We will be expecting a
Local bearish correction
Sell!
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Dollar Index OverviewThe Dollar moving as we expect it to within the Gold Fund! As soon as we saw a '5 Bearish Wave Completion' on the DXY, straight away buyers entered the market & start pushing price back up.
My Gold Fund investors & Gold Vault Academy students know from our 'Q3 Market Breakdown Report' what we're expecting for the Dollar in the next 3 months.