DXY coold down before going up. Inv H&S pattern.The TVC:DXY is experiencing a cooldown, as indicated by the MACD. It was overbought and needs to relax a bit. However, this is not a reversal; it is just a reaccumulation. The inverse head and shoulders pattern suggests a target of $106 if the pattern stops at the bottom of the right shoulder, returning to its previous level and ready for more uptrend.
A buy in the green zone is a safe entry.
Always do your own research (DYOR). This is just chart analysis, not financial advice.
J-DXY
R2F Weekly Analysis - 3rd August 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
- R2F
The collapse of US stocks across the board, is this a sign of a 8.2 US stocks collectively plunged
Qualcomm fell 9%
Nvidia fell 6%
Tesla 6%
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 8%
Intel fell short of expectations
Is the above directly related to the news of interest rate cuts in September?
The answer is "YES"
What do you think of this comment area? Welcome to comment
Alikze »» XAUUSD| Completion of leg 3 or C...?🔍 Technical analysis: Completion of leg 3 or C
- According to the analysis presented in the recent posts here and here , after the completion of the wave B, a rising leg C or 3 was formed, which has so far returned more than 1.618 of the previous wave in the supply zone.
- Considering that a bearish candle is formed in the 4H time frame, any upward correction can be to collect liquidity for a short-term correction.
- Therefore, I expect the correction to extend at least to the compression area of 100 fibo of the previous wave and touch the next level or the next node in case of selling pressure.
💎 In addition, if confirmed, this ascending cycle can be the format of its movement, which can form the next ascending leg, which will be updated if the behavior and structure of the post changes.
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OANDA:XAUUSD
Will the dollar continue to fall?Market trends and analyst Ang Kar Yong, according to the CME Fed watch Tool, the market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of nearly 100%. Overall, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice before the end of the year. If the July non-farm report is lower than market expectations, the unemployment rate rises and/or average income growth slows, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates more than twice before the end of the year will increase.
This will undoubtedly bring additional bearish pressure to the US dollar index.
GOLD SHORT TO $1,964 (12H UPDATE):An absolutely crazy move on Gold😵💫 Price has rejected our supply zone & melting 540 PIPS in profit so far. I'm very careful with this analysis as I still won't rule out a surprise move towards our $2,500+ target next week. But for now I am taking advantage of this sell analysis.
EVERYONE in this channel should be in 'sells' as I have called this move out LIVE FOR YOU ALL!
US Dollar Index Daily TF DXY
None Farm Payroll outcome from 13:30 today
U.S PRIVATE NONFARM PAYROLLS (JUL) ACTUAL: 97K VS 136K PREVIOUS; EST 148K
U.S PARTICIPATION RATE (JUL) ACTUAL: 62.7% VS 62.6% PREVIOUS
U.S MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS (JUL) ACTUAL: 1K VS -8K PREVIOUS; EST -1K
U.S AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS (JUL) ACTUAL: 34.2 VS 34.3 PREVIOUS; EST 34.3
U.S GOVERNMENT PAYROLLS (JUL) ACTUAL: 17.0K VS 70.0K PREVIOUS
looks like it is going to close below 104.018
The DXY has dropped 100 pips following the non-farm payroll results and is expected to close below 104.024, indicating a bearish trend. Consequently, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and GOLD are likely to swing bullish. My area of interest is around 102.959, where I anticipate a rejection due to the presence of a -0.27 Fibonacci level and an order block. This should lead to a pullback before resuming the bearish trend to create new lower lows.
Gold 4hr TF
Gold is moving higher as a result of the non-farm payroll outcome. I expect this upward trend to continue until it hits my area of interest at 2,482, where I anticipate a rejection. After this pullback, I foresee gold resuming its upward movement to achieve a new all-time high (ATH).https://www.tradingview.com/x/tuk0BSO7/
GOLD SHORT TO $1,964 (12H UPDATE):NFP pushed the last hourly candle up, but now the current candle seems to be pushing price down. If you're actively monitoring price action, then you'll see price is so far rejecting our 'supply zone'. Let's see if sellers can come in heavy now that news is finished, or will bulls carry on taking charge.
Use strict risk management if selling at this 'supply zone'.
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.544.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 105.173 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Pre NFP Analysis2nd August (NFP Pending)
DXY: could see weaker NFP (155k), DXY to retest 104.45, reject to trade down to 104 round number. Could trade down to 103.65 if <155k.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5910 SL 15 TP 45 (DXY strength)
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6505 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness)
USDJPY: Sell 148.40 SL 50 TP 210 (Hesitation at 147.30) or Buy 149.75 SL 50 TP 220 (Double Bottom)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2690 SL 20 TP 70 (Pre news)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0825 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8740 SL 20 TP 60
USDCAD: Sell 1.3885 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness)
Gold: Could retrace to test 2450 then rebound to 2480
GOLD → Correction before the bullrun. Target 2500?FX:XAUUSD is strengthening and testing 2450. The price rise was influenced by Powell's comments on progressive deflation and a possible rate cut in September, as well as another conflict in the Middle East....
The Fed left the rate unchanged for the 8th time at 5.5%. The rate has remained unchanged since the summer of 2023 and is the highest in 20 years. There was considerable discussion of a rate cut at this meeting. A rate cut may be considered in September. In addition, the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East may turn into a full-fledged war, which generally increases the interest in gold.
Today is also a busy news day. Initial Jobless Claims, SP PMI, ISM are ahead. The data also plays an important role in shaping the medium-term strategy, so it is important to evaluate the actual results.
Resistance levels: 2437, 2450
Support levels: 2430, 2421
After a false breakdown of resistance, a correction is forming. Gold is bullish at the moment (trend, sentiment and interest), so the nearest strong support may become a reversal zone for further strengthening. The potential target is 2451 - 2474.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
USDX, DXYUSDX, DXY prices are in the support zone 104.04- 103.59. If the price can stand above the 103.59 level, it is expected that there is a chance that the price will rebound. Consider buying a red zone.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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*Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 104.54
1st Support: 104.05
1st Resistance: 104.81
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish After The News
The today's fundamentals are very bearish for Dollar.
I think that a bearish rally will continue and a breakout
of a key daily horizontal structure support is valid.
We can expect a bearish movement to 103.7
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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook ICT ConceptsU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis
💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on DXY , dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
💡Previous Analysis Review:
In our previous analysis, we predicted a sweep of the equal lows from the past. We have now also observed a sweep of last week's low.
📍Current Market Overview:
At the moment, the price is situated in the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) levels. We have recently swept the Previous Week Low (PWL), indicating a potential shift in market direction. Given these conditions, we can foresee the price expanding higher to target the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL).
🔍 Identifying Key Levels
The chart highlights several significant levels and zones that influence the current market behavior:
• PWH: Previous Week High, indicating recent market highs.
• PWL: Previous Week Low, serving as recent support.
• SSL: Sell-side Liquidity, areas where sell orders are placed.
• EQL: Equal Lows, indicating levels of support and potential liquidity.
• BSL: Buy Side Liquidity, areas where buy orders are placed.
📊 Key Considerations
• Current Price Position: The price is currently trading around 104.380, after sweeping the EQL and PWL.
• OTE Levels: The price is in the OTE levels, indicating a potential bullish entry point.
• Targeting BSL: The price is expected to expand higher to target the Buy Side Liquidity.
📈 Bullish Scenario
Given the current price action and key considerations, a bullish scenario is possible if the following conditions are met:
• Price Expansion: The price may expand higher to target the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL).
• Reaction at OTE: The price being in the OTE levels suggests a strong potential for a move higher.
📉 Bearish Scenario
A bearish scenario should be considered if the following conditions are met:
• Buy-side Liquidity Taken: For any short case scenario, we need the buy-side liquidity (swing points) to be taken first.
• Continuation Lower: After taking out the buy-side liquidity, the price may continue lower.
📊 Chart Analysis Summary
• Bullish Expectation: The expectation is for the price to potentially expand higher from the OTE levels to target the BSL.
• Bearish Expectation: For a bearish scenario, we need the buy-side liquidity to be taken out first before considering short positions.
Understanding these key levels and the current market behavior helps in making informed trading decisions.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring DXY today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Levels discussed on Livestream 1st August 1st August
DXY: Found support at 104, retracing, if above 104.20 could test 104.40. (wait for retracement to complete before continuation lower)
NZDUSD: Buy 0.5990 SL 20 TP 55
AUDUSD: Do nothing, look for reaction at 0.65
USDJPY: Wait for retracement to complete at 151, Sell 150.75 SL 45 TP 170
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2770 SL 20 TP 65 (BoE decision pending)
EURUSD: Sell 1.0795 SL 20 TP 55
USDCHF: Buy 0.8770 SL 25 TP 60
USDCAD: Look for reaction at 1.39
Gold: Could retrace to test 2430, look for rebound to 2450, beyond that 2480
EURUSD Simple Trade Plans; Pre/Post ECB News (new uptrend).ECB deposit rate facility news comes out soon, as well as speech from the ECB in general terms relating to monetary policy.
Anything that confirms a quicker easing cycle will likely feed into a downside drip for the EURO. This comes as a near term uptrend forms on a second high.
Upside moves will rely on anything that will delay a cut (unlikely). The FED has made its position clear lately leading to real weakness around the USD.
GOLD → Ahead is 2430 and strong news. Going up to 2500?FX:XAUUSD overcomes trend resistance, forming a bullrun to the liquidity zone amid positive rumors. The price is testing 2430. Possible correction before the news.
Today is a busy news day, high volatility is possible. Ahead of ADP Nonfarm, Chicago PMI and the most important last: Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC conference.
Nobody is going to cut the rate today, but Powell may give a signal about interest rate reduction in the coming months on the background of slowing labor market growth. Traders evaluated the possible potential positively enough and rushed through 2390 to 2430.
Technically, a retest of resistance is formed after quite a long time, liquidity may not let the price up the first time, respectively, a correction is possible before further growth.
Resistance levels: 2429, 2452, 2474.
Support levels: 2404, 2400
The fundamental and technical background is favorable, if something unpredictable does not happen today, gold may continue its recovery phase. But, pay attention to the news, as they will be published in a cascade and the temporary mood of the market may be volatile....
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Buy GBP/USD Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.2850
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.2905
2nd Resistance – 1.2930
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.2814. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
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DXY Will Go Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 104.399.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 103.504 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
The USD and US bond yields immediately decreased.The DXY index - measuring the fluctuation of the USD compared to six major currencies in the world - decreased from 104.8 points (8:00 p.m., July 30) to 103.94 points (8:00 p.m., July 31, Vietnamese time). Male).
Thus, there are more positive signs for the US economy. This is a factor that may cause the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to have a plan to lift monetary policy at a faster pace to ensure the US economy does not fall into recession in the future.
Accordingly, in July the number of jobs created in the US was 122,000 jobs, lower than the forecast of 147,000.
The USD and US bond yields immediately decreased.
GOLD Breakout Imminent? Key Levels & Patterns to Watch Now!Technical Breakdown of XAUUSD
Overview
The chart depicts the price movement of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) against the US Dollar on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighting key technical patterns and support/resistance levels. The analysis aims to provide insights into potential price actions based on historical movements and current market conditions.
Key Patterns and Levels
Descending Channel:
The price has been moving within a descending channel, characterized by lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). The channel is defined by two parallel trendlines (in white) that indicate a downtrend.
The descending channel suggests bearish momentum as the price continues to make lower highs and lower lows.
Support/Resistance Levels:
Support/Resistance Inside Channel: A notable level within the channel where the price has repeatedly found support or resistance, marked by dashed horizontal lines.
4HR LQZ (Liquidity Zones): Two critical liquidity zones at 2447.5 and 2432.4, acting as major support and resistance levels. These zones are crucial as they represent areas where significant buying or selling activity has occurred.
Highs and Lows:
Higher High (HH): The highest point reached before the price entered the descending channel, indicating a peak in bullish momentum.
Lower High (LH): The lower high within the descending channel, showing the continuation of the bearish trend.
Daily Bull Flag:
The price is approaching the upper boundary of a daily bull flag pattern (marked in yellow), suggesting a potential bullish breakout if the price can sustain above this level.
Current Market Conditions:
Support/Resistance Retest: The price recently tested the resistance level at 2474.9 within the 4HR LQZ and pulled back slightly, indicating the presence of sellers at this level.
Potential Breakout: The price is attempting to break above the descending channel and the 4HR LQZ, which could signal a reversal of the downtrend if confirmed by sustained buying pressure.
Additional Insights:
Dollar Interaction: The inset chart shows the US Dollar index coming into a support/resistance level within its own channel, providing additional context to the gold movement.
Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment and external factors such as economic data releases and geopolitical events can also influence the price movement of gold.
Conclusion:
The XAUUSD is currently at a critical juncture, testing key resistance levels within a descending channel. A successful breakout above the 4HR LQZ and the descending channel could signal a bullish reversal, while failure to break these levels may result in continued bearish pressure.
Overview of the BoJ Monetary Policy ActionsAt the start of 2024, the USDJPY was trading along the 141 price level , after it had retraced from the 2023’s high of 152.
This was due to weakness in the US dollar as there was increasing speculation within the markets that the US Federal Reserve was likely to start cutting US interest rates by early 2024.
But as the speculation grew that there could be less rate cuts than initially anticipated for the US. This saw a rapid strengthening of the US Dollar, which in turn, saw the USDJPY climb steadily to retest the previous high of 152 in March 2024 .
Even when the BoJ ended their negative interest rate policy by hiking rates for the first time in 17 years on the 19th of March, they also abandoned their yield-curve control and ended most of their asset purchases aimed at policy easing.
But, there was little to no effect on strengthening the Yen, as markets viewed that despite what was done, the policymakers lacked commitment to this path of monetary tightening. As such, the Yen continued to weaken, with the USDJPY breaking through the 152 price level in April to record a new high of 160.
Which led to BoJ intervening twice in close succession, taking the USDJPY from 160 down to the 153 price point. But as what we have seen from all the previous currency interventions the USDJPY bounced back to not only reclaim the previous high but form new highs at 162.
When the USDJPY got to the 162 price level, the BoJ intervened again to bring prices down to 158 .
Paired with the weakness of the US dollar due to the US CPI reaching 3% and increasing speculations that the Federal Reserve was ready to start cutting rates in September, the USDJPY broke the bullish trendline to continue trading lower.
This week, the BoJ hiked rates to 0.25% and indicated plans to significantly reduce its bond-buying program over the next couple of years.
This led to the USDJPY breaking below the 152 price level (which is crucial as it was the level where the BoJ intervened back in October 2022, and where the price started reversing from in November 2023) we look for the USDJPY to continue trading lower down to the 147 key support level (and previous swing level).
Once the price has reached the 147 level, the next move will likely depend on the volatility of the DXY and the interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve.