GOLD → There's a chance at the Bullrun. PCE ahead...FX:XAUUSD is testing local channel support and forming a rebound from the liquidity zone. Traders are waiting for PCE data. Favorable inflation data may provide strong support for gold.
Traders are waiting for the PCE, any hints of lower inflation may be viewed quite positively, which will generally increase the chance of interest rate cut in September. As we know, low interest rates make gold more attractive.
Technically, if we pay attention to the D1 chart, gold is testing a conglomeration of strong support: False break of MA-200 + trendline support, as well as bounce from 2350-2355 support level, which means the approximate area of intermediate bottom of the ranyke and forms a global range of 2485 - 2350. But, the fight for 2350 is not over yet.
Resistance levels: 2377, 2392
Support levels: 2370, 2350
Let me remind you that news is unpredictable. Favorable data will influence the possible bull run, but unpredictable ones may provoke sales and price decline to 2350.
But, at the moment of analysis, technical and fundamental nuances point to a bull market, there is a chance of growth to 2400-2430.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
J-DXY
Alikze »» XAUUSD| Movement in the descending channel🔍 Technical analysis: Movement in the descending channel
- Gold is moving in a descending channel in the 1H time frame.
- It has had several reactions to the ceiling and floors, and now it has faced demand again by hitting the floor trigger.
- It created an OB on the bottom of the channel, which reacted to it after coming into contact with the supply area. - According to the ascending guard, it can have an upward correction movement up to the ceiling of the 2406 range channel.
💎 Also, if it breaks the red box area downwards, it can test the 2353 range.
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OANDA:XAUUSD
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis and Trade Idea In this video, we analyze the DXY Dollar Index. It's clear that the DXY has been exhibiting bearish momentum recently. However, it is currently range-bound, and we need to wait for the market to reveal its direction. My strategy involves monitoring the 15-minute chart for signs of a breakout. I am leaning bearish, but this will be confirmed later today as we approach the London and NY sessions. A breakout could present a trade opportunity, as described in the video.
It's important to note that these observations are speculative and not a definitive forecast. Confirming specific price movements is crucial before considering any buying or selling decisions, as elaborated in the video. The video provides a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, market structure, and price dynamics. Remember, this educational content is designed to enhance understanding and does not guarantee outcomes. Trading inherently involves substantial risks, so employing robust risk management techniques is essential.
A Recession Is Coming - Brace for Impact First things first
What is a Recession?
A recession is a period when the economy isn't doing well. It means businesses are selling less, people are losing jobs or not getting raises, and overall, there's less money being spent. It's like a slowdown in the economy where things are not growing, and sometimes they shrink. This period of economic decline usually lasts for a few months or longer. Usually, when we have two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) we say that we are in a recession.
Now, let's look at previous recessions to see if we can find some patterns that help us predict the coming one. 😊
This is how you can navigate through the chart:
- past recessions are highlighted with orange colored boxes based on the data from "FRED economic data".
- The purple line chart shows the US inflation rate.
- The US GDP is shown in a green step-line chart.
- The US interest rate is shown with an orange line.
- The Yellow line chart shows the unemployment rate in the US.
- The most important line chart here is the blue one that shows the spread between the 10-year bond yield and the 3-month bond yield (Yes we could also use 2-year instead of 3-month).
This blue line, the yield curve, is important to us because it's a reliable indicator that almost every time gave us a heads up for a recession (if you were looking at it of course 😁). When it falls below zero, we call it the inverted yield curve and we hit a recession almost every time it gets back up after spending some time below zero.
An inverted yield curve tells us that the market participants are concerned about future economic growth It can lead to tighter financial conditions, reduced lending, and lower consumer and business spending, which can contribute to a downturn in the economy.
With that said, take a look at the chart and you can easily spot the repetitive pattern of interest rate hikes/cuts, unemployment rate, and the inverted yield curve just before each recession.
With the strong possibility of having the first rate cut in September, and the patterns you see on the chart, can you say that we are going to have a hard landing and a recession? I would say yes.
If you say we are not going into a recession and your counter argument is backed by a low unemployment rate and a positive GDP and a declining inflation rate, this chart does not support the idea.
I know there are other factors that might support the soft landing scenario, and I would like to have your point of view on this. So, please share your thoughts in comments section if you are reading this post through Tradingview. 😊
For further research, you can pull up the charts of indices like S&P500 or commodities of your choice to see how they moved during each recession. This will help you find some patterns that might assist you in your future investments.
Sell USD/CAD Channel BreakoutThe USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.3813, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3775
2nd Support – 1.3748
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3855. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Buy EUR/USD Wedge BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 1.0842, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0881
2nd Support – 1.0902
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.0822. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
EURUSD 28/7/24This week in the EU, we are looking to meet a couple of key points. Overall, we are focusing on the price shifting back into the bearish higher timeframe trend. Currently, the price has been moving lower. We opened up a gap on the daily timeframe, indicating a likely drop. Since then, we have moved lower and created short-term liquidity lows, suggesting the price will sweep out these levels and continue its downward movement.
The key points we want to see met this week are as follows:
1. Price to sweep out one of our short-term highs and create a BOS (Break of Structure) downwards, giving us a clean sweep and break move.
2. We have an area of supply that we may tap into. If we reach this high, it would be ideal for short moves and selling positions.
3. If we tap into this supply and break higher, I will look for the daily high to be reached.
We are more inclined to see a sell move to follow the higher timeframe trend. The target for this short move is the demand zone marked in green and the liquidity low marked just above that zone. Ideally, this zone will fail, and the price will move lower. However, we may react at this zone and go higher. We will follow what the price shows us!
Follow your rules and stick to your plan!
Trade safe.
Next Week Trading Plan (DXY analysis)we have drawn some high lows of weekly and monthly swings
after that,
we have spotted a chart pattern on 4h of DXY indicating it was head and shoulder (incomplete)
although the idea was the left shoulder of the pattern is bigger and on the right shoulder it will be shorter than the left shoulder
neckline comes at 104.510
first target will be 104.900 which is derived from the right shoulder length and
2nd target is at level of 105.300 which is the length of head
incase the first condition couldn't break through the neckline we then have to wait for price to retest the monthly and weekly support which is around 103.900 to 103.600
DXY Will Go Down From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 104.242.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 103.696 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
(DXY) Dollar - Break out pending from its consolidationThe DXY is currently in a consolidation phase, and I expect it to break out soon. Regardless of the direction, we have marked points of interest (POIs) that will help us capitalize on trading opportunities.
- Scenario 1: Price Breaks Upwards
If the price breaks above the consolidation, I anticipate it will fill the imbalance and tap into the supply zones marked on the 30-minute and 8-hour charts.
- Scenario 2: Price Breaks Downwards
If the price moves down, I expect it to mitigate the 16-hour demand zone. This zone appears to be a strong buy setup, likely pushing the dollar back up. There’s also an imbalance above this demand zone that needs to be filled.
Overall, I am favoring an upward move, as this aligns with my bearish outlook on GOLD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD.
R2F Weekly Analysis - 27th July 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
- R2F
DXY Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a selling opportunity around 104.900 zone, DXY was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 104.900 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
GOLD SHORT TO $1,964 (12H UPDATE)It's now Friday & the weekly candle will be closing bearish, putting our 'Gold Sell' position in nice profits🙌 If Gold pushes up again next week, I'll be using the opportunity to enter my investors into additional sell positions & increase our profits.
Those who followed the analysis properly, should be positioned into 'sell positions' now & running in nice profits!
GBPUSD → A favorable PCE could resume the bullish trend ↑FX:GBPUSD is forming a counter-trend correction amid the dollar recovery. Ahead of PCE, data may determine the medium-term outlook for the FOREX market
Technically, the market is increasing bets that the PCE may show hints of lower inflation, which will generally increase the chances of a September interest rate cut in the US. This could be negative for the dollar and positive for the currency pair. But no one rules out an unpredictable outcome, against which the currency pair could decline to 1.277
Technically, I would pay attention to the resistance at 1.2894. A consolidation above this zone will confirm the phase of the bull market, against which the price may rise to 1.30 - 1.31.
Resistance levels: 1.2898
Support levels: 1.2850
Fundamentally, things are not so bad. Favorable data can resume the trend after the correction phase, but it is still worth paying attention to the actual PCE figures and only then you can build a medium-term strategy
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GBPUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
US Core PCE Price Index Analysis25th July
DXY: Consolidating between 104.20 and 104.40 Needs to break 104.60 to retest 104.80 (0.2% on Core PCE)
NZDUSD: Look for reaction at 0.5865,
Sell 0.5855 SL 20 TP 75
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6566 SL 20 TP 70
USDJPY: Buy 154.65 SL 50 TP 100
GBPUSD: Buy 1.2880 SL 25 TP 65
EURUSD: Sell 1.0830 SL 20 TP 75 (Hesitation at 1.0810)
USDCHF: Look for reaction at 0.8840 (Depends on DXY volatility)
USDCAD: Middle of support & resistance level
Gold: DXY strength, XAUUSD break 2365 to trade down to 2350
GOLD → Profit taking led to the rally. But it's not all bad... GOLD after the retest of 2430 fell under the selloff, there is no pressure on the price of metal, but the reason may be profit taking amid the selloff in stocks and in anticipation of economic data from the United States.
Traders are waiting for US GDP and Initial Jobless CLaims, which will be released at 12:30 GMT. The data may have a medium-term impact on the market, but the whole focus is on PCE, which will be released on Friday. Investors expect the Fed to deliver its long-awaited rate cut in September. In a low interest rate environment, gold's appeal increases.
If the data on Friday shows that inflation is slowing down, it will be a good sign for gold.
Technically, a correction is forming, with emphasis on 2370, or 2350. Strong support areas that can keep the market from falling.
Resistance levels: 2377, 2392
Support levels: 2370, 2355, 2350
The price stops in the zone of 2370-2377 in general it can give some prerequisites for a rebound. If gold can consolidate above 2377, the price may move into the recovery phase, if not, traders may test the liquidity in 2355-2350 before further growth.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
DXY- False break and strong reversal ahead?
Last week, the DXY broke below important horizontal support.
However, the next day, the index reversed its losses, followed by a bullish candle on Friday.
This created a strong reversal candle on our weekly chart, making us wonder if the initial break was false.
Now, the index is consolidating above this important horizontal support.
A break above the current lateral consolidation could lead to an upward acceleration.
Typically, after a false break, the asset moves in the opposite direction to test the next significant level.
For the DXY, this sets a target in the 1.0650 zone.
Sell Gbp/Usd Bearish Flag BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. FX:GBPUSD
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.2916, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2882
2nd Support – 1.2855
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.2953. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
EURAUD - Monster Move Hey traders,
EURAUD has been moving correctively for almost one year. According to Elliot Waves, the type of correction that has made is an irregular flat correction that consists of 3 waves:
Wave A= 3 waves
Wave B =3 waves
Wave C = 5 waves
Wave C is an ending diagonal = Reversal will happen. In addition to that, we are seeing nice divergence which indicates price is going to reverse soon.
LONG Setup:
- Watch break of 4H 50 EMA for entry
- Stoploss : Below 0.382 fib
- Targets: 1.70 ( 900 pips ) and 1.78 ( 1700 pips )
Check 4H chart for entry
Goodluck and trade safe!