... for a 2.64/contract credit. Notes: A bet that TLT doesn't move much with no upside risk (the credit received exceeds the max risk of the two-wide short call vertical) and a downside break even of 157.36 (the short put strike minus the credit received). Additionally, even if it blows through the long call strike at 172, the credit received exceeds the max...
Twitter cratered a bit after earnings, so taking advantage of the IV spike. -1 Sep21 $33/38/39 Jade Lizard for $1.63. No upside risk on this play (will make $63 if expires over $39), $31.37 downside breakeven. Risk: 2x cr received or continue to roll the put out. Profit: 50% cr received
... for a 1.02/contract credit. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.02/contract Max Loss: .98/contract Break Even: 12.02 (no upside risk) Notes: Here's the synthetic jade lizard setup I posted about (see Post Below). Basically, the bet is that VIX stays around here and 14-ish for the duration of the trade. I'll look to take off the short put/short call/long call at 50%...
People frequently ask under what circumstances I would long a volatility product and, if so, what product I would use. I generally shy away from long setups in instruments that experience either beta slippage or contango erosion such as VXX or UVXY since the vast majority of the time you're rowing against the contango tide -- a pop in volatility is required...
www.tradingview.com Caught my notice as one of many stocks that popped back to begin filling yesterday's gap. The longer term trend is up. Schaff Trend Cycle (bottom panel indicator - this is a modification of LazyBear's @LazyBear, customized line color for up/down direction and background color for Elder Ray EFI grn/red above below zero and dark green/red rising...
Opened a Jade Lizard 7/24 on AMD for earnings. I chose not to buy a Put to offset a blowout to the downside. In doing so I was able to collect a little more premium. Closed trade day after earnings for 33% of Max profit. Successful trade.
After news of AMZN's acquisition of WFM, COST's implied volatility has popped here, with its implied volatility rank ramping up to the 67th percentile over the preceding 52-week period, and with background implied volatility at 21%, making a premium selling play potentially worthwhile. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 64% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying...