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Jakarta_composite

IDX dropping like a stoneHello, thanks for viewing. I was going to post this last week, but thought no one probably cares. I put a lot of time into these, now I can't see how many people have viewed, and I get little feedback. Anyway, spent the day reading story headlines like "Asian shares bounce on strong US open". Totally out of sync with what is happening here in Indonesia. In a few days Indonesia enters a second lockdown. Nothing like the first lockdown - or lockdown "lite" - as I called it. When the streets were still busy and every 4th person wasn't following protocols. Now it's a lockdown because the hospital system HAS reached maximum capacity. There is no back-up healthcare capacity to bring online. It is very rare to talk to anyone here who is taking the situation seriously. Most of the businesses that continued during the first "soft" lockdown will be closed and access to the main airport will be heavily curtailed as of Monday. I'm not saying this with glee - I am caught up in all of this and everyone who hasn't taken it seriously is an obstacle to my family's best interests. Long story short, there will be a huge and bitterly painful reduction in employment locally. The ability to buy (or sell) physical gold will be postponed. The government's deficit will balloon (it is already much larger than even recently forecast) and be financed by printing a LOT more of "the worst performing currency in Asia in 2020". Ok, I am not getting into what happens medium and long term; - Short-term though revenue reductions in all but a few FMCG consumer goods producers, health, and essential services. - A large up-tick in non-performing loans (even as recently as late 2019 many banks were approved to hold significantly reduced capital requirements) so this is going to sting. There are already a number of large non-performing loans on the books, but they have not been called in as yet. Once you call them in, you lock in the loss caused by years of bad underwriting and oversight. Well, the banks will be forced to take those losses now. Any residual collateral will be called in and liquidated (at the bottom of the market). Aircraft, property, permits, mining concessions. The other reason that non-performing loans haven't been called in already is that the government has supported banks to suspend loan repayments. That's all good if the time-horizon is short. If it continues for 9 months, 12, 15, well at some point investors will have to face facts - that the loans will never be repaid. - Probably more points but I should really go to bed. Look for a break of the read dashed line at 311ish. If so, we are going much lower, all sorts of things will be uncovered, bankruptcies etc will follow but the market will be on sale for those that choose correctly. Good luck and protect those funds everyone.
IDX:IDX30Short
by flyinkiwi10
2
JKSE target ~5200Thanks for viewing, 1. If you entered long around the time of my previous post in October (linked) at 5756 you would be 10.5% up now, 2. There is a little way up yet (due to wave 3 of wave C being extended (finishing) and wave 4 and 5 to come, and then we should hit at around 5200 or lower. My analysis is just based on the chart and also that other regional and international equity markets are also correcting presently. I am not trading this Index, just following.
INDEX:COMPOSITEShort
by flyinkiwi10
JKSE45 2 bearish 1 bullish scenarioJust to update my previous post a few months ago. Scenario 1: We have seen 5 waves already and are now in a wave B triangle with another 5 waves down to come. Target S1 for -17% Support: The triangle is clearly corrective, within the triangle waves A and B have almost completed, with wave C to come. If this scenario is in play I would look to enter a short somewhere around the 0.618 fib retracement - or around there somewhere. If anyone knows of any Indonesian brokers that allow shorting please let me know in the comments. Scenario 2: My labelling isn't correct and we have have an extended 3rd wave and this is a wave 4 triangle. Target for this scenario is marked by S2. Support: If scenario 2 unfolds it shouldn't go above the red line (wave 1 price extreme). Scenario 3: The price drop labelled waves 1 - 5 is actually a double zig-zag and we are about to head for the upper trend-line again. Support: Not much really, but it could happen. The triangle correction tends to point towards one of the other two scenarios. If anyone has info please DM me. Thanks, at the moment I am not trading the JKSE45. This is published for educational purposes only.
INDEX:COMPOSITEShort
by flyinkiwi10
JKT Composite - Alternate CountNo comment really, wave C has a tendency to extend slightly over wave A in this index - not as far as 1.618 but something like 1.2. This would mean the 1:1 target is a safe one (if this alternate count is correct) for -14%. I want to keep an eye on this. Do your own research. I don't have anything against Indonesia (actually it's a lovely place), I have just got side-tracked looking into the general stage of their market. I will have a look at other countries next.
INDEX:COMPOSITEShort
by flyinkiwi10
Jakarta Composite Index end of correction? Hello all, How curious that I now spend my free time looking at charts :) Since going down 18% from its 2018 peak there are signs of a recovery. Either we are somewhere in wave B of and ABC corrective rally or the correction is complete and the index has formed wave 1 and is forming wave 2 over the next couple of weeks. Caution, as wave 2 tends towards a deeper correction - so we may see something around the 0.5 fib retracement or more. If it is an ABC, then this may be followed by another corrective sequence to make a double zig-zag (WXY) or a triple zig-zag or combination (WXYXZ), or by a new impulse move up. If the wave down ends up forming a triangle then that reduces the probability that it a wave 2 and increases the chances that it is a B wave - as leading diagonals / wave 2 triangles are less common than in the B wave. Happy trading - keep an eye on those stops. This is published solely for my own education and to make it easier to monitor the market at key turning points.
INDEX:COMPOSITELong
by flyinkiwi10