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January2022

$DBA breakout, potential near term reversalLT Conviction: 5/5 ST Conviction: 2/5 Breakout confirmed for long-term upward movement. Risky short-term. Explain: Lots of agriculture requires fossil fuel as inputs (fertilizer), and with structural underinvestment in fossil fuel extraction, prices should remain elevated for the next few years. This higher prices should trickle down into agriculture production costs. Rising inflation should also increase (price) demand for agricultures. However, short term looks overbought, and could drop in the next 1-3 months, following energy prices.
AMEX:DBALong
by asdf098
$ETSY potential bottom reached (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 For: RSI-W reached historical (short-term at least) bounce levels Seem to hold resistance level around 158 Typically EW retracement after 5 waves goes to 4th wave of previous wave, which is around where our support is. Quick ratio is pretty healthy (>2) RSI-M at level of last bounce (40-50)... although not usual low where major trends reverse (30-40) Against: Macro environment is unfriendly Stock is expensive on P/S metric, more prone to selling Still a long ways to fall before any significant support (green line: 2016), current time suggests $70 ish bottom History is short, not much volatility time periods, perhaps only 2018 (raising rates?)
NASDAQ:ETSYLong
by asdf098
$PINS good (not best) buy point! (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 26.8 looks like a better entry Main thesis So far (mid week) bounced off of dark blue channel (2020) support. RSI-W touched historical bounce area (however, if we wait for bullish divergence there could be another leg down) Leg down could coincide with .786 retracement (26.8) RSI-D showing bullish divergence Misc Info P/S level of 9ish is high on absolute level, but on lower end of range relative to other high growth names As a reference, S&P 500 P/S is 3 right now. High margin and high growth Very healthy quick ratio Potential Risks RSI-W is still languishing at oversold levels, better to wait for a clearer signal Channel (2020) is super short, and does not include last major recession (2008) General markets are very expensive, and we all know correlation goes to 1 in selloff. High growth / expensive names seems like will sell off more than general market
NYSE:PINSLong
by asdf098
$CLX long-term buy! (4/5)Conviction: 4/5 Entry is not idea, could have better entry point if price goes down to retest support. Main thesis Bounced off long-term (1991) channel bottom in December Bounced off 50M-MAas well RSI-M also bounced off historical lows, although not levels with highest certainty Confirmed breakthrough from downward resistance line last week Touching lower bound of channel (2016) Misc Info P/S level of 3ish is high relative to historical levels, however much lower than some other tech companies... P/S level of 3 is about the same as S&P 500 Healthcare ( AMEX:XLV ) looks good compared to AMEX:SPY , could carry this up as well Potential Risks RSI-W is heating up, although does not preclude from uptrend in medium term (about a year) Just broke through (with confirmed close) last week from downtrend resistance line Quick ratio is deteriorating from mid 2021 General markets are very expensive, and we all know correlation goes to 1 in selloff. Revenue growth is negative ... likely as people become less sensitive to COVID?
NYSE:CLXLong
by asdf098
$TDOC multiple signals buy (4/5)Conviction: 4/5 Main thesis Retrace to .786 fib level from 2016 lows. This is an unconventional level but it coincided with medium-term resistance from 2009-2020. RSI-W touched historical bounce area (however, if we wait for bullish divergence there could be another leg down) RSI-D showing bullish divergence Touching lower bound of channel (2016) Misc Info P/S level of 7ish is high on absolute level, but on lower end of range relative to other high growth names Healthcare ( AMEX:XLV ) looks good compared to AMEX:SPY , could carry this up as well High margin and high growth Very healthy quick ratio Potential Risks Bullish div = another leg down Very negative FCF (not sure why?) Channel does not include last major recession (2008) General markets are very expensive, and we all know correlation goes to 1 in selloff. High growth / expensive names seems like will sell off more than general market
NYSE:TDOCLong
by asdf098
Commodities short term pullback? (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 Risky over the next 6 months, perhaps triggered by fed raising rates in March? Commodities ( AMEX:GSG , AMEX:DBC ) showed real strength over the last two years. However, looking at weekly RSI it looks a bit exhausted (using data from bear market in the last 10 years) Typically with breakouts, the asset will retest former resistance. Also, looked like 5 waves up from 2020 low. Reaching fib level 2. Invalidated if it goes up? Long-term view still positive.
AMEX:GSGShort
by asdf098
$SPY showing signs of exhausgion against $ACWX (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 SPY could continue to outperform ACWX for another year as in 2015-2017 period. Main Thesis Weekly RSI of SPY outperformance nearing overbought area, which have historically identified about 3 months of underperformance when SPY/ACWX touches 50W or 100W MA. Monthly RSI also approaching overbought. Daily RSI seems to be rolling over, but not definitive yet. Relative performance also nearing historical MT channel since 2011/2012 Potential Risks Historically international stocks do not seem to offer much protection during downturns. In fact, they seem to underperform SPY. SPY outperformance could continue awhile longer.
SP:SPXShort
by asdf098
$PAYC attractive entry point (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 could drop further to match RSI hitting solid line (oversold) General Thesis weekly RSI almost touching oversold levels, which have been pretty good entry points Currently hovering around support line of channel established in July 2014 Growth Gross margins (80%) is a lot higher than past few years Revenue growth (30%) is about historical average, bounce from lows in 2020 Value P/S around 75th percentile, although very high compared to rest of market P/FCF is quite high Potential Risks could drop to support (June 2018) history is a little short, only goes back to 2014
NYSE:PAYCLong
by asdf098
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